Sunday, October 19, 2025

Full Speed In Reverse

                                                                                      written 12 October, 2025

                                                                                  published 19 October, 2025


            For the last two centuries, modern civilization has been built on the availability of abundant affordable energy from stored fossil fuels, deposited millions of years previously.  But these resources are finite, and humanity is now dealing with a peak in global production: a point of maximum extraction prior to an inevitable decline.  This was forecast decades ago, but ignored by true believers who deny any limits to reality.

            Domestic oil production helped the US lead the world after WW2, changing everything, making America a powerhouse on the planet.  But domestic oil production peaked in 1972, initiating a decade of uncontrolled inflation, and shifted the balance of power to the middle east.  An eventual agreement to denominate all global oil sales in US dollars brought a measure of stability for a while.  But consumption kept increasing, and global production eventually peaked in the early 2000's, amplifying the 2007 economic crash of an over extended housing market.  Since then, diesel has become more expensive than gasoline, adversely affecting the entire transportation economy.

            In 2005, new forms of oil production were developed, designated as unconventional oil.  This oil was more expensive to produce, increasing the cost of everything.  The most productive sources were deep sea ocean and tight rock (fracking).  Fracking extracts thin layers of oil from rock that must be fractured open under high pressure.  The reserves are small and the wells deplete in just a few years, requiring constant drilling of new wells.  Exploiting these expensive unconventional sources, the US has again become a leading oil producer.

            However, the oil industry now acknowledges US fracking resources have peaked.  All global production from any source is now flat or in decline, with an estimated $500B investment needed annually to make up the decline, let alone power any new growth. 

            Discovery of new global oil reserves peaked half a century ago.  While there are still oil resources to extract, these are smaller, more difficult to produce, increasing prices and driving inflation.  Without even discussing the adverse climate impact, the economics of our finite fossil fuel resources threaten the stability of our fragile, highly leveraged financial system.

            Our economy is further destabilized by the erratic application of tariffs, which increase prices, and the authoritarian activities of the government, causing an increase in gold prices, and a down grading of US debt.  Efforts to avoid the dollar in global trade are growing, and concerns of an economic crash are increasing.

            Rather than seeing what is coming and embracing effective changes, US leadership is incoherent, moving full speed in reverse.  They kill technologies that can help, and instead push further fossil fuel development and a resurgence of nuclear power.  But oil production is unprofitable for the corporations at low prices, and unaffordable for the consumers at high prices.  The nuclear buzz, expected to power the growing AI frenzy, is attracting billions in investment, in part due to massive taxpayer subsidies.  But the reality of supply chain limitations, finite fuel sources, and unproven designs means this may be just a financial bubble, which could pop with a single messy accident, resulting from hasty construction.

            Though the US refuses to take action, the rest of the world is beginning to respond, slowly shifting to renewable energy, collecting free power from the sun and wind.  China is leading the way, producing most of the global supply of solar panels, batteries, and affordable EV's, while installing half of all the wind power last year.  But the push in on everywhere.  Globally, a gigawatt of solar is installed every day, and the pace is increasing.  

            Even though the sun only shines for part of the day, a gigawatt array collects about the same amount of power as a modest Small Modular Reactor (SMR) operating full time.  But the solar arrays being installed today cost $1.2B, while reactor salesmen suggest a SMR will cost between $3-$7B.  However, nobody knows what a SMR will really cost, since none exist yet in the real world.

            The Post Carbon Institute suggests oil depletion shows our current industrial civilization is unstable, incapable of endless growth in the way we use energy and resources.  Depletion demands we begin prioritizing those social features we really need.  We must start to live with the planet, not in spite of it.  It calls for us to imagine a more localized energy future, and start adapting now, while we still have some opportunities.

  

 

Sunday, October 12, 2025

A Fool In Charge

                                                                                        written 5 October, 2025

                                                                                  published 12 October, 2025

    

            Once upon a time, a king demanded the tide stop coming in.  But this was not a foolish act, for the king was actually trying to show his foolish advisors the limits to power.  Unfortunately, our self-proclaimed king not only has foolish advisors, but is foolish himself, believing whatever he says must be reality.

            He foolishly believes the climate crisis is a hoax, so he props up aging fossil fueled plants and destroys efforts to address, or even monitor, climate changes already happening.  Coal, a 19th century energy source, is expected to power 21st century AI data centers.  Operating a coal fired plant costs more than building new wind/solar with storage.  The Big Beautiful Bill cancels funding for wind and solar, mostly in Democratic-led states, unsettling the financial underpinnings of the entire U.S. energy industry.  Without even considering the adverse climate impact, consumers will annually pay an extra $3 billion power bills.  Electricity rates increased by nearly 7 percent in the last year, with more rate increases on the horizon.   

            After the mindless DOGE staffing purge, the Energy Department doesn’t have enough lawyers left to carry out the project cancellations ordered by the White House, and will instead have to spend millions on outside counsel. 

            There have been no major domestic nuclear accidents since Three Mile Island, partially due to Nuclear Regulatory Commission oversight.  Now, hundreds of people have been fired from the agency and only three of the five NRC commissioner positions are filled, making the recent push for more nuclear power increasingly risky.

            Our king foolishly believes raising tariffs and excluding workers will make the country richer.  As a result, the economy is suffering the highest tariffs in a century and consumers pay higher prices.  John Deere, producer of machinery for many American farms, says sales are down, with higher tariffs increasing costs by $600 million.  Tariffs on steel and aluminum led to losses of thousands of manufacturing job.  Instead of reducing drug prices, tariffs have increased prices on almost 700 prescription drugs so far this year.

            Farmers face a slump in crop prices and worsening credit conditions.  Corn prices are down 50%, and soybean prices are down 40%, as overseas markets for crops are lost due to tariffs.  With the massive assault on undocumented workers, farmers are caught in the middle of a 155,000-worker shortfall across the national agricultural sector, which means lower supply and higher prices.

            Tariffs have weakened consumer spending, as jobs are evaporating, with sharp drops in home construction.  One indication is a 9 percent decline in containerboard-production capacity in eight months, twice the capacity that was lost during the recession in 2009.  

            Nearly 30 countries have suspended postal services of packages to U.S. over import tariffs, including Australia, Japan, India, and Europe.  After September 21, no H-1B worker will be allowed to enter the US unless the sponsoring employer pays a $100,000 fee.  These are workers with specialized knowledge that no one local can fill.

            Employment fell by 13,000 jobs in June, marking the first net loss since December 2020, with another 32,000 jobs lost in September.  Last month, jobless claims surged in one week, when 263,000 new people filing for unemployment insurance, 10 percent higher than the previous week.  Unemployment rate is 4.3 percent, the highest level since the pandemic.  Rising unemployment and higher prices threaten economic stability.  But instead of dealing with what they created, the administration fired the record keepers.  

            Billionaires benefit from tax cuts, while MAGA voters are bearing the brunt.  A majority of Republicans now think he's on the wrong track when it comes to the economy and tariffs.  He promised tariffs would fill the U.S. Treasury, create millions of manufacturing jobs, and be paid by foreign countries.  He insisted he could impose these tariffs without an act of Congress, and he would complete trade deals with 200 countries.  He promised to end the war in Ukraine on Day 1, that Putin really wants to make a deal, and would soon stop attacking.  He promised to reduce prices on Day 1.  

            None of this happened.

            It doesn't really matter whether the president knows he is lying, or is just delusional, believing whatever passes through his mind in any given moment.  He is acting like a fool.  What is more disturbing is the entire leadership of the Republican party seems willing to go along with this.  It won't end well.


 

 

Sunday, October 5, 2025

The Nuclear Stampede

                                                                                  written 28 September, 2025

                                                                                    published 5 October, 2025

 

            In the rush to build more nuclear power, billions are being poured into advanced reactors, and billions more into expanding the nuclear fuel chain.  The published reason is the massive power demanded by data centers and artificial intelligence (AI).  Disregarding the social risks of AI, the real attraction is the money to be made, as nuclear power is some of the most expensive on the grid.  Nuclear is the perfect capitalist power source.  The price tag is huge, significant taxpayer subsidies are involved (corporate welfare), monopoly power guarantees return on investment, liability is limited, power is centralized, and a few dozen corporations control the industry.  This isn't about affordable electricity, it is about maximizing return on investment.

            Even before Fukushima, nuclear development hadn't been robust for years, as they are economically unaffordable in the face of cheaper renewable power.  Among other delusions, our president believes the climate crisis is a hoax, so renewable energy must be squashed.  Consequently, the nuclear rush is based on fiction, like all the financial bubbles throughout history.

            It is fiction nuclear is clean energy.  During normal operations, a nuclear plant emits no carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  However, plant construction and nuclear fuel production have a significant carbon footprint, even without considering disposal of nuclear waste and decommissioning aged reactors.  

            It is fiction nuclear can deal with climate change, which has been ignored for so long that only rapid change will be sufficient.  Reactor construction takes twice as long as projected, so building traditional reactors can't happen fast enough to be relevant.  

            The new hope is small modular reactors (SMR), which are promised to be cheaper, faster to construct, and safer than current reactors.  These promises are fiction, unsupported in reality, since no SMR is in operation today.  Though SMR construction has begun in several locations, none of the designs are complete, nor approved.  

            The president is pushing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which is tasked with nuclear safety, to rubber stamp these designs to make things happen faster.  But there is a reason for safety concerns.  Nuclear reactors are complex, and the consequences of failure are impactful and expensive.  All the reactors in operation today evolved from a few basic designs that have been updated over decades as new concerns came to light.  Even then, the unknown unknown can show still show up a fatal weakness.  SMR's are a new design, with no track record and no guarantee safety will be anything like what is promised. 

            Safety is expensive, and cutting corners saves money in the short term.  The US military has a long history of nuclear safety in the navy, because cost savings were never a priority over safety.  This is not the case in commercial nuclear power.  At Chernobyl, the Russian design was thought to be so safe a containment structure was considered an unnecessary cost.  That failure was felt over 1,000 miles away, and the exclusion zone is still hazardous to life 40 years later.  At Fukushima, General Electric saved money placing the emergency backup pumps close to sea level, despite evidence of large tsunamis in the past.  That failure was a trillion dollar disaster they said could never happen.  Safety will be sacrificed in the current rush for profit as well.

            The economics of nuclear power are constrained by the scale of manufacturing.  No matter how many SMR's are built, the total quantity can't compete with the scale of creating solar panels, where improved manufacturing over the last 50 years has reduced the cost per kilowatt hour by a factor of 1,000, while reactor costs keep getting more expensive.

            Nuclear power consumes uranium, a finite fuel source, which is mostly imported.  But it competes with renewables, which collect free energy.  Some of the SMR designs expect to use High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU): uranium enriched to 20 percent, much closer to weapons grade.  Domestic facilities for this level of enrichment do not yet exist.  Other SMR designs intend to reuse existing spent nuclear fuel, which will have to be reprocessed before being useful, creating even more radioactive waste in the process.

            Nuclear power produces radioactive waste on a good day, and radioactive contamination on a bad day, neither of which have ever been successfully dealt with since the beginning of the atomic age.  The driving force is making money, not affordable energy.  The public pays for nuclear mistakes and electric bills keep increasing.


 

 

 

Sunday, September 28, 2025

Community Oriented Backup Power

                                                                                  written 21 September, 2025

                                                                              published 28 September, 2025

    

            Two weeks ago, I described the impending change to our existing electrical system, and last week I described hardware installations that could make Ukiah power usage more economical during normal operations.  This week will consider Ukiah becoming power resilient in the face of grid unreliability.

            A home power system can be built to function completely disconnected from the grid, as the few people making energy consumption decisions can reach consensus and adjust power demands to the reality of the power system limitations.  A community supports a greater per capita load, making it more difficult to be off grid.  People and the economy have grown up in an era where power has always been available and relatively affordable, so being thrifty with power has never been much of a social value.  Even though Ukiah is a relatively small city, consensus on power usage is probably impossible.  

            But the growing climate reality, increasing fossil fuel costs, and the rapidly expanding power demand driven by AI, are changing the power landscape, making it more questionable if power will always be available, or affordable even when it is.  It is prudent to consider making investments now, while we still can, to be able to thrive through more power uncertain times. 

            In a power emergency, the full normal load won't be supported, so a backup system must supply the most critical loads.  Some business and facilities have begun to prepare, and have installed backup power systems.  But these are usually fossil fuel based, which are only cost effective in short term thinking.  Combustion of fossil fuels is part of what is driving the increasing power uncertainty.  Fossil fueled backup systems are sunk costs, sitting around unused most of the time, have limited power capacity without refueling, and can fail when needed.  With few exceptions, these backup power systems are for exclusive benefit, not really designed to support the whole community.

            Community oriented backup power has to look at needs of the whole society.  This includes basic City functions, such as sewer and water service, emergency communications, fire and police, and City administration.  Key social functions include supermarkets and restaurants, financial centers, social services, radio stations, hospitals and clinics, cooling centers, telecommunications, gas stations and EV chargers, and evacuation centers.  Within the general public, some have critical health support systems requiring constant electricity, and everyone needs some power for refrigeration, lights, and communication.

            An ideal backup system should be able to function all the time, helping pay for itself by carrying part of the normal load.  With constant usage, any difficulties will show up and be repaired before the situation becomes critical.  However, the system must be able to stand alone when needed.  Long term power resilience requires the ability to collect power on site, or be recharged with power collected locally.  Emergencies can easily last for weeks.  If the impact is widespread, we in the more rural areas will be low on the list for outside response.

            Building resilient systems for specific facilities is much easier than building resilience for every home, which are all wired differently.  This requires design and labor to add storage and rewire the home so that only critical circuits are energized when needed.  Every homeowner will have a different idea about what is critical for them.  An equitable power system would allocate the same share of power to each home, or each person, allowing each resident to decide how to utilize that energy.  In a community, we all need to survive, or our society quickly tears itself apart.

            Despite the fact that design and funding are significant up-front costs, we should consider this, because we can see what is coming.  It is like paying for insurance.  Without power, our entire civilization comes to a halt very quickly, but preparing in advance gives us a chance.

            We in Ukiah have the advantage of owning our electrical system, and enjoy the benefit of paying much lower costs than anywhere else in the county.  But that means the savings from using power more efficiently are much smaller as well.  Consequently, adding community scale battery storage, and building solar production locally, are more difficult to support just from a day-to-day cost savings alone. 

            But these power additions, combined with strategically designed backup systems, could make Ukiah more power resilient as a community, as well as more power efficient, which is well worth considering.

 

 

Sunday, September 21, 2025

What Could Be Changed?

                                                                                  written 14 September, 2025

                                                                              published 21 September, 2025

   

            Last week I described our current electrical power situation, listing the forces demanding change, and how Ukiah has a unique opportunity.  Let's consider what that might look like in terms of economics.

            Ukiah buys power from the Northern California Power Agency (NCPA), which contract with power providers, and owns some generation facilities.  What we pay for this power is determined by how many megawatt hours we use in each five minute increment, times the cost of the power as set by the statewide power market at that moment.  The power is shipped to Ukiah over the transmission grid owned by PG&E, which charges a flat rate for each megawatt hour.

            In 2019, the annual average wholesale cost per kilowatt hour (KWh) paid to NCPA was 4 cents, with another 2.5 cents paid to PG&E.  This wholesale cost of 6.5 cents was 41 percent of the residential retail rate of 15.4 cents.

            Though the retail rate charged to Ukiah customers is constant throughout the day, the wholesale rate Ukiah pays to NCPA varies wildly.  Over the course of a single day, prices can change by more than a factor of ten, as the total demand on the grid changes.  Power is cheapest midday, when all the solar production in the state is pushing power onto the grid, and most expensive in the evening as the sun goes down.

            This daily swing provides an economic opportunity.  With sufficient local battery storage, cheap midday power can be stored and then used in the evening instead of buying expensive power off the grid.  In 2019, battery costs and service life at the time meant storage could save about 1/4 of the cost of the battery.  However, in the last 6 years, battery chemistries have changed, costs have dropped significantly, life times have more than doubled, and our wholesale power costs have almost doubled, so a battery today would save about twice the cost of the storage system.

            About 30 percent of NCPA power is generated from finite fossil fuels, vulnerable to increases in global fuel prices.  All power brought into Ukiah is subject to increases PG&E unilaterally makes on their shipping rates.

            Consequently, Ukiah could help stabilize power costs by collecting some solar power locally.  Being collected locally, there is no payment to PG&E for shipping.  The cost of the hardware is a fixed cost for the life of the equipment, which can be decades.  Other than that, the power collected is free.   

             A simple survey of Ukiah shows we have enough commercial roof top area and parking lot area to install over 40 megawatts of solar array.  However, some of the buildings might not be structurally able to bear the weight of solar on the roof.  Many of the businesses don't own their parking lots.  Sorting all that out would take time.  But the simplest situations could be developed first.  Additionally, Ukiah owns some vacant land within the city limits, and land outside the city limits could be purchased to install even more arrays.

            When the Ukiah School district used grants to install canopy arrays on three of their campus parking lots, they paid about $3 per watt.  Over an expected 25 life of the system, that will produce power costing about 8 cents/KWh, which is less than we currently pay for our wholesale power today.

            But beyond just saving money in the normal course of affairs, local power production and storage builds power resilience in the face of grid blackouts, which promise to become more frequent due to growing climate impact and rapid demand increases stressing our aging and limited grid system.  In 2019, Ukiah experienced a four-day planned PSPS grid shutdown.  Ukiah lost about $7M in business sales and another $1M in spoiled food.  We were fortunate the event didn't last any longer, as ice used for cooling food was at the limit, and backup power systems at cell towers and other critical facilities were reaching their planned limits.  Having some power for our critical social and economic functions is a form of insurance against that kind of adverse economic impact. 

            But the Distributed Resource Operation (DRO) electrical system described above needs money up front, as we are prepaying our electric bill for the next 25 years.  Furthermore, operating a DRO requires a more complex power management structure than our existing utility.  Addressing these concerns from the beginning is essential.  Stay tuned.


Sunday, September 14, 2025

The Current Situation

                                                                                    written 7 September, 2025

                                                                              published 14 September, 2025

    

            Commercial electrical power production began in 1882.  The basic structure remains the same today.  Power is produced in a few central locations, mostly generated by falling water or combustion of finite resources, then shipped over a transmission grid, and distributed to local loads.  The electrical grid is now the largest man-made structure, central to most all of life and commerce.  But the situation is being challenged to change. 

            Those who understand the climate crisis is real know we have to stop adding any more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere: decarbonizing the economy.  This will require about 3 times more electricity to replace all fossil fuel usage.  Additionally, power demand has increased with the sharp rise in data centers, AI, and crypto currency, with some estimates projecting another factor of 3 increase in power consumed. 

            At the same time, the global supply of fossil fuels has been diminished by centuries of extraction.  All the cheapest reserves are already depleted.  While plenty still exists, it is more costly to extract every year, reflected in constantly rising energy bills.  We currently live at a tipping point, where the cost to produce these fuels is becoming greater than the economy can support. 

            Furthermore, the grid we have today is aging out, barely able to handle normal loads, let alone the massive increases coming.  As the climate heats up, summer air conditioning loads threaten to crash the system.  Environmental threats from fires and storms are increasing, making power reliability more precarious.  Expansion of the grid is expensive and time consuming, making electrical availability more problematic.

            However, power production technologies have evolved, no longer limited to resource extraction.  Grid scale power can be collected from the sun and wind and the power stored until needed.  This can be large centralized grid scale systems, or smaller, more distributed installations, located closer to where the power is consumed, reducing transmission congestion.  

            Whether driven by climate reality, economics, or rapidly expanding power demand, a future based on renewable energy is no longer just possible: it is inevitable, despite the foolish federal denial.  Just as coal, steam power, and railways defined the 19th century, and oil, steel, and mass production defined the 20th century, so too will renewables and electrification define the 21st century.  The question is how fast will it occur, and which nations or communities will lead.  Now is the opportunity to embrace a fundamental transformation of the power system. 

            But the political, economic, and regulatory structures that grew along with the traditional power system still function, controlling what happens on the ground.  As with many systems, these are designed to protect the status quo and the centralized money structure that constrains everything.

            In our area, electrical power is controlled by PG&E, the largest utility in the state, and the California Public Utility Commission (PUC), which sets the rules for connection and operation.  In the 1990's, California deregulated the electricity market, allowing anyone to build power plants, in part due to rising solar generating capacities.  PG&E mostly left the power production business, keeping a few generation resources, but retained ownership of the transmission and distribution systems.  Through its economic might, PG&E dominates the PUC.

            What this means in practice is that nobody can connect to the power system, either to produce power or use power, without permission from PG&E.  Nobody can share power across property lines, without permission from PG&E.  However, there are a few very specific exceptions where PG&E permission is NOT required.

            On your own home or business, behind a single power meter connection to the larger grid, you can install solar arrays and storage, as long as you never push power back out onto the system.  Tribal entities have dominion over their reservations, and can install and operate their own power systems.  Communities with municipal power systems can install and operate power systems within their defined territory.  In Mendocino County, only Ukiah has its own power utility, creating a unique opportunity.

            The power system of the future will be communities with local power resilience.  By producing some power locally, dependance on the grid is reduced, maximizing utilization of our existing infrastructure.  Storing power locally allows cheaper power to supplant expensive evening power, increasing economic efficiency.  Building resilience throughout the power system insures against debilitating consequences from grid unreliability, because some power is better than no power in an emergency.

            The City of Ukiah can explore these possibilities.  Let's become leaders.

 

 

 

 

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

                                                                                        written 31 August, 2025

                                                                                published 7 September, 2025

     

            Everyone has heard about AI, but before we examine the artificial, let's discuss the real.  

            When we consider intelligence, we usually think of logical ability.  This quality of the left brain, which processes differences, sequences, and concepts, is where our personal sense of self resides.  While logic is powerful, it rests on assumptions which can never be examined within the logic itself.  Anything can be proven logically given the right assumptions.   

            Our habitual assumptions are laid down by patterns from our family and cultural, but new assumptions come as insight, inspiration, and creativity, through the right side of the brain.  These arise from our fundamental connection with all life.  Therefore, whenever we hear a logical proclamation, before accepting the conclusion, it is important to consider the assumptions behind the logic, which are usually unexpressed.

            There are other forms of intelligence, such as emotional or social intelligence, required for a harmonious society.  Without this type of intelligence, people can be logically smart, but terrible partners or co-workers.  Street smarts are another type of intelligence not based on logic alone.  Some people are very intelligent in some areas, and incompetent in others.

            AI, more technically called Large Language Models, arises from the explosion of computer speed, complexity, and capacity, producing transformative results in many fields, particularly in the world of medicine.  For example, AI can calculate the shape of proteins from the originating DNA sequence.  What used to take years can now be resolved in hours, and has revolutionized the pharmaceutical industry.  Reading medical images has improved using AI.

            AI has attracted massive amounts of investment from people wanting to get in on the next new thing and become the world's first trillionaire.  AI is now mentioned in all kinds of products, even if it doesn't make any sense.  

            But being computer programs, AI systems are based on logic, which means they are subject to the unexamined assumptions of the programmers.  AI systems have been trained on everything that has ever been written and therefore affected by those cultural assumptions as well.  Since there is no capacity for insight, there is little chance for any fundamentally new assumptions.  Therefore, it is no surprise that AI demonstrates some of the worst aspects of humanity.  They lie, fabricate, hallucinate, and fight back when threatened.  But they do it faster than humans can respond.  

            AI presents other social challenges.  Mechanization has always displaced blue collar workers, but AI is now displacing white collar workers.  With unlimited AI, anyone now studying to become a computer programmer or lawyer will probably be obsolete by the time they graduate.  Autonomous vehicles, a consequence of distributed AI, will displace millions of commercial drivers.  Unemployment resulting from AI has been projected to be 20 percent within five years.  This could save billions for the corporations, but would be devastating for society. 

            More dire concerns are the malicious use of AI power for disinformation or creation of new biological weapons.  Drones with AI capacity have already changed the nature of warfare, as demonstrated in the Ukraine.  As AI gets faster, cheaper, and can now even run on laptops, these concerns will increase with more wide spread usage.    

            Even without malicious applications, the explosive growth of AI threatens the electrical power production and grid delivery systems, by requiring tens of gigawatt hours of power, operating around the clock.  Electricity rates have already gone up, as these corporate entities outbid regular consumers.  The transmission grid is barely adequate for the existing demand, let alone the AI push, making power availability more problematic for everyone.

            The rising demand from AI server farms is driving the push to build more expensive gas turbines and nuclear plants, and even reopening decommissioned nuclear plants.  But these quick construction plans run up against the reality of constrained supply chains, hindering the execution of such ambitious desires.  

            Finally, the massive amount of money being poured into AI has created a speculative bubble which threatens the economy, with about 20 percent of retirement funds now invested in AI businesses.  But useful applications of AI seem to be falling short of expectations.  MIT recently reported that 95 percent of AI companies fail without returning a dime to investor.  Reality may crash the whole industry.

            As we let AI replace human intelligence, it could destroy the society if it works, or crash the economy if it fails, fully expressing the limits of worshiping logic alone.