Is Sustainability Affordable?

                                                                                   written 19 November 2023

                                                                               published 26 November 2023

      

            Every day, some article complains that the green revolution is "unaffordable", as if the issue is a fashion choice, like getting new carpets for the house this year, or buying a new winter coat.  Without a doubt, decarbonizing the economy, changing the entire energy sector, will be expensive, adventuring into uncharted territory.  But unaffordable compared to what?

            Despite the best efforts of the fossil fuel industry and their bought politicians, the climate issue is gaining more attention every day.  Two thirds of Americans now want renewable energy, even 40 percent of Republicans.  2023 is entering the record book as the hottest year ever experienced by humans. 

            Atmospheric CO2 is now 50 percent higher than pre-industrial levels, a situation last seen 5 million years ago, when the planet was 3°C warmer, and the sea level was 60 feet higher.  We are already 1.1°C warmer.  However, our addition of CO2 has been so rapid that the heating response has been lagging behind, but is now accelerating, with recent projections we will hit 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2030.  

            Weather extremes make the news.  For example, on October 25th, hurricane Otis hit Acapulco, Mexico.  The day before, everyone was preparing for a typical tropical storm, with winds of 70mph.  But the climate warmed ocean rapidly intensified the storm, and Otis hit as a category 5 hurricane, with winds above 165mph, and gusts over 205mph, one of the strongest on record.  Every building in Acapulco was either damaged or destroyed.  The city of 1 million was cut off for days, forcing residents to scramble for water and food.  Estimates are that it will take $15B, and years, to recover.  In addition to destroying infrastructure, the climate crisis is adversely affecting crop yields, raising prices and increasing the risk of widespread starvation, creating lethal heat affecting agricultural workers, and the drought in Panama has cut Canal shipping in half, making supply chain issue more difficult and expensive.

            Our complex technological economic system is dependent of global supply chains across thousands of miles and numerous countries.  This system evolved over time, building on trusted relationships with reliable sources, giving us a standard of living unprecedented in history.  However, our economic model has squeezed out the redundancy of multiple sources, in the name of "market efficiency", which has led to a more precarious situation.  The loss of a single player can have global impact.

            As the climate crisis increasingly destroys, or just deteriorates, parts of the entire globe, like a giant game of Jenga, removing pieces everywhere, we become more unstable, less resilient, both economically and materially.  It is foolish not to notice, and begin to respond to change the situation before we lose the ability to respond at all.  By the time a firestorm is heading toward your house, your opportunities have narrowed to just fleeing for your life.

            For decades, our economy has grown on the back of affordable fossil fuels, which are now depleted, raising prices, while leaving us with a civilization threatened by the climactic consequences of a polluted atmosphere.  Globally, we pay trillions of dollars per year retail for this fuel.  Governments annually subsidize the industry with trillions more, in direct payments and externalized climate damages and health costs.  The global economy generates about $120T annually, and a very modest price to earnings ratio of 10 means the invested infrastructure is worth at least $1,200T.  This entire fiscal net worth is at risk due to increasing climate disasters, without considering any value we put on human life, or the value of living on a habitable planet.

            The climate solution is two-fold: stop adding to the problem with complete decarbonization of the economy, and begin immediate removal of 1,000 gigatons of atmospheric carbon, with a goal of returning to pre-industrial levels by 2050.  We have wasted decades due to the well-funded climate denial industry, so any effective response will have to be more rapid, and therefore expensive.

            Global decarbonization costs are estimated at about $275T over 30 years, about $9T annually, less than 8 percent of global GDP.  That can be considered either as an insurance payment to avoid complete disaster, or a tax on stupidity and selfishness.

             Part of the problem is that people are reluctant to look at the magnitude of what is at risk.  Is a habitable planet desirable?  If so, how can we accept it is unaffordable?  Think about that.  

Molting

                                                                                   written 12 November 2023

                                                                               published 19 November 2023

    

            Some people feel humans are just a lethal parasite, killing our host planet, and the sooner we die off, the better the rest of life will be.  Reading the news, it is easy to understand this perspective.  

            The nuclear exclusion zone around the damaged Chernobyl nuclear plant is thriving with wildlife, despite horrendous mutations and diseases, because there is no human impact, compared to other areas.  Humans are more hazardous that severe nuclear contamination.  From space, cities look like grey, concrete dead zones expanding across the landscape, and industrial sites are mostly devoid of life.  Our extractive economic model, preferentially focused on short term exclusive gains, makes it profitable to kill the planet.

            But humanity is a very young species, still learning and evolving.  Even viruses, which are barely alive, evolve over time.  If a virus is too swift in its lethal predation, killing the host before it can infect another, it dies out.  Over time, it moderates, either killing less swiftly, or making a deal with what becomes a host organism, where it survives without attacking that particular species.  Life learns.

            Every problem we humans manifest comes from the same flawed perspective: the illusion of absolute separation in the reality of a massively connected world.

            Consider just the obvious problems, misogyny, racism, religious bigotry, and nationalistic wars, all running rampant across the planet right this minute.  Each one is rooted in the idea that some part of the population feels "better" than some other part, and chooses to oppress or kill them.  Justifications are often based on the idea that "God is on our side", even though each side in a conflict often believes the same thing.

            Our economy reflects this separation perspective, justifying horrible oppression as "just business", with the added bonus that the entire system is rooted in the fraud that costs can be "externalized", by pretending they don't exist, or are "not my problem".  

            The climate crisis, my particular focus, is another symptom of the same separation, as people ignore that they are part of life.  Just hold your breath and think about where the oxygen comes from, and notice how important that next breath becomes.

            This illusion of separation is deeply rooted, dominating humanity for thousands of years.  But we are learning.  Democracy and human rights are expanding.  In the last few centuries, humans have discovered the stored energy of fossil fuels.  In the last century we discovered the energy inherent in matter, accelerating our social transformation with quantum physics and the computer revolution.  We are experiencing the fundamental material interconnectedness of the world, but living with Paleolithic brains and medieval cultural structures.

            However, those social structures are now constipated, corrupted, and failing in their basic functions.  The old way of "doing business" no longer works.  Some people want to be told what to do, and crave an authoritarian leader, saving themselves the effort of thinking for themselves.  But that won't work, as the fundamental separation perspective wouldn't have changed, still "us against them".  We are being forced to evolve, to experience the inherent cooperation of the world, learning to live like a multi-celled organism.

            We are a global society, and can no longer abide the wealth extremes where a few have massively more than they need, and billions are sick and starving.  Diversity is a co-operative strength, not an invasion to be feared.  Violent, hateful leaders anywhere, are a threat to all of us everywhere.  For example, while not equivalent, the authoritarian leaders in Israel, and the terrorist leaders in Hamas, make the whole world worse off.    

            There are life forms that grow by molting.  Their brittle definition of "what is" becomes too small.  In order to live, they have to crack out of their shell and expand.  Humanity is in the process of molting.  The rigid social/economic patterns that have defined us as limited beings in competition are cracking apart.  For those attached to the past, this feels like a disaster.  The challenge is to begin identifying with what is emerging.  The experience begins within, as we grow larger than our little, fear defined, egoic sense of self.

            Humans are powerful enough, and numerous enough, to destroy the ecology of our planet, but cannot survive unless we deliberately refrain from misusing this power, placing the vitality of a biodiverse planet above all other considerations, as a recognized move of self-interest.  Are we wise enough to survive?

 

 

Republicans

                                                                                     written 5 November 2023

                                                                               published 12 November 2023

     

            Republicans have been pounding the message that "government is the problem" for decades.  We now see REPUBLICAN government is the problem.  Republicans stand for protecting very rich men, and oppressing everyone else.  Democrats don't.

            Republicans on the Supreme Court gutted spending limits in campaigns, and money in politics exploded.  72 percent of voters say there is too much money in politics, and 85 percent say the costs of campaigning scare good people from running for office.  There are now 12,600 lobbyists for the 535 Senators and Representatives, a 24:1 ratio.  84 percent of voters say lobbyists have too much power.

            When Democrats are in power, Republicans cry "fiscal responsibility", but under Trump, the national debt increased by 1/3.

            The GOP has no interest in actually governing.  After the House Republicans booted their own Speaker, putting the entire government on hold for three weeks, they demanded the IRS be defunded, protecting wealthy tax cheaters, holding Israeli support hostage.  In the Senate, a single Republican abortion fanatic is delaying 400 critical defense appointments, risking US national security.

            The GOP is now MAGA, the Cult of Trump, using hate and fear to create division.  The litmus test for MAGA is not a social agenda, but an absolute commitment to the Big Lie: the 2020 election was stolen.  They target anyone who disagrees, encouraging their faithful to action, causing local election officials to resign due to harassment and death threats.  

            There have been 560 US mass shooting (4 or more injured or killed) so far this year, more than 2 a day, the most in the world by far.  US gun homicide rate is 8 times the next country, and we have 44 percent of the planetary gun suicides.  Even though 60-90 percent of voters support assault rifle bans, or stricter access to guns, Republicans kill all efforts to control guns.  They profess that gun violence is due to mental illness, no-fault divorces laws, the sexual revolution, radical feminism, or legalized abortion, and always answer with "thoughts and prayers".

            Since maniacal support for only the very wealthy is not really a popular policy, Republicans find the democratic system a constraining limitation.  Their response has been restricting voter access, purging voter rolls, gerrymandering districts to distort their power, all leading up to the insurrection to keep their loser candidate in office.

            Republicans have aligned with the Christian Nationalists.  Almost half of Evangelical Christians believe that Christ's message to "love your neighbor" and "turn the other cheek" are too weak for these times and should be ignored, completely distorting the term "Christian".  What is left is hateful, punitive, intolerant, and autocratic, waiting for the world ending Rapture, therefore unconcerned about global deterioration.

            Court packing has allowed the Supreme Court to overturn abortion access after fifty years.  85 percent of voters think abortion access should be legal.  Not satisfied with pushing for a complete abortion ban, Republicans now want all birth control banned, as well as no-fault divorce, forcing people to stay in bad marriages.

            Because Social Security taxes only apply to the first $160,000 of income, the wealthy escape paying a fair share.  As the population ages, the Social Security fund is being drained.  Republicans now argue that larger families are needed to deal with this, but are rabid against allowing in young, eager workers at the border.  In addition, child labor laws are being overturned in GOP led states, with kids as young as 11 working dangerous jobs.

            Supported by Trump, Mike Johnson, the new Speaker of the House, perfectly represents the new GOP.  He is a millionaire Southern Baptist Christian conservative, anti-gay, anti-same sex marriage, anti-marijuana, anti-abortion, anti-birth control, anti-no-fault divorce, and believes in covenant marriages, which are much harder to end.  An ultra MAGA supporter, he masterminded the January 6th plot, worked to undermine the election certification, and thinks mail in balloting is legally suspect. 

            Republicans practice "thought control" with book banning, social media disinformation, and preaching that the climate crisis is a liberal hoax, delaying effective response to growing social issues.

            If you are a human with a heart, if you want your children to have a habitable planet, if you prefer kids not be shot in school, if you are a woman who wants to decide how to plan your own family, if you believe that the democratic system is important, this next election is an opportunity to speak up, and decisively vote out these authoritarians.

 

Questionable Assumptions

                                                                                     written 29 October 2023

                                                                               published 5 November 2023

  

            All logic is based on assumptions, and the validity of any logical conclusion is affected by the validity of the foundational assumptions.  

            For example, Trump is mentally unstable, and assumes he is never a "loser", so he concluded the 2020 election must have been stolen from him.  Despite the absurdity of the fundamental assumption, the entire Republican party has followed him down that rabbit hole, even to the point of trying to overthrow the government.  

            Capitalism has an assumption just as suspect: constant growth is possible on a finite planet.  

            In the last 75 years, human population has increased from 2 billion to 8 billion, a factor of 4, and fossil fuel consumption has increased by a factor of 7.  By the mid 60's, virtually all of the planet had been surveyed, and discovery of new oil reserves had peaked.  In 1956, Shell geologist Marion King Hubbert, understanding that fossil fuels are a finite resource, predicted that the US oil production would peak in the early 70's, due to depletion of reserves.  He was ridiculed at the time, but 1972 was indeed a peak for US conventional oil production.

            At that point, the US lost control of the price of oil, and OPEC took over.  Gasoline prices tripled in a decade as the US was punished for its support of Israel, US interest and inflation rates rose, and the savings and loan industry crashed.  Eventually a deal was made with the Saudis, and relative stability returned.

            However, Hubbert had also predicted that global oil production would peak in the early 21st century, but nobody really paid attention.  When Hubbert was alive, oil was generally pumped from land-based reserves.  As oil production expanded, this conventional resource became contrasted with deep ocean oil, fracking of tight oil, and tar sands.

            In 2005, global conventional oil production peaked.  Demand was filled by increased deep water extraction, and an explosion of fracking, which made the US a world leader in production again.  But deep water is very expensive to produce, and fracking exploits very small reserves, which deplete rapidly.  Oil was available, but extraction costs went up significantly.

            At the turn of the century, the financial industry had created a house of cards in the housing industry, and mortgage fraud increased 1400 percent in the seven years leading up to 2005.  Rising oil prices, particularly diesel, which impacted shipping costs, helped pop the housing bubble in 2008, leading to a global economic crash.  The resulting recession reduced oil demand and prices, and the economic crisis distracted attention from issue of limited affordable oil production.  

            By 2016, the global economy was beginning to recover.  However, a decade of fracking had demonstrated it was a financial loser, demanding higher prices to be affordable, which made the resulting fuel relatively unaffordable to the customer.  Billions were lost as the reality of limited oil conflicted with the industry advertising hype.  Fracking reserve estimates were optimistic, and the few areas that were actually profitable were quickly developed and depleted.  In 2018, global oil production from any source peaked.  The COVID pandemic beginning in 2019 depressed the global economy again, reducing oil demand and prices again, distracting from the limited oil economy again. 

            We are now recovering from the COVID pandemic, and the price of oil is volatile, shifting between $80-$100 per barrel.  Our local gasoline prices are over $5 per gallon, and diesel is even higher.  The wars in Ukraine and Israel have added to volatility, as has the increasing shift away from fossil fuels all together.  Russia and Saudi Arabia have the largest remaining conventional reserves, and there is question about their ability to produce.  Russia needs as much money as they can squeeze out of the market to fund their war, and the Saudi's are beginning to withhold product from the global market to insure sufficient domestic supplies.

            Despite Republican rhetoric, Biden had not limited new domestic production, but has encouraged shifting to renewables.  However, big oil is not really interested in investing in new production.  Their stockholders are tired of losing money, and prefer stock buybacks.  Serious questions about when peak oil demand will occur, due to the global shift to renewables, make any long-term production investment risky.  Some oil majors have abandoned the field entirely.

            We are experiencing the end of affordable fossil fuels, without even considering the fact that we are killing the planet with the resulting climate change.