Nuclear Fuel Cycle

                                                                                             written 20 July, 2025

                                                                                         published 27 July, 2025

   

            Nuclear energy is promoted as renewable and clean.  It is neither.  

            Renewable can only apply to energy forms where the power is already present, waiting to be collected, not to energy sources consuming finite material.  Renewable energy is present in solar (from the Sun), wind (from atmospheric solar heating), hydro (from stored rain resulting from wind), and geothermal (from Earth core heat).  These forms of power are constantly renewed and will outlast humanity.  Nuclear energy consumes uranium, which is finite, not renewable. 

            While it is true that a functioning nuclear reactor does not add any additional carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, to describe it as clean is a very narrow, deliberately misleading, use of the word. 

            Uranium is contained in many rocks, but is uselessly small quantities.  Even economically viable ore contains only 0.05-0.1 percent uranium.  Therefore, for every pound of uranium, 1,000-2,000 pounds of tailings are produced, usually piled near the processing site.  The tailings contain some traces of uranium, a toxic metal as well as radioactive, which contaminates mine workers, local ground water, and areas downwind.  Mining is powered by diesel fuel, adding atmospheric carbon dioxide.  The market rate for uranium is about $70 a pound.

            Uranium is primarily two isotopes, which are the same element with 92 protons, but with different numbers of neutrons in the nucleus.  99 percent is U-238 (with 146 neutrons) which is relatively stable and 0.7 percent is U-235 (1.3 percent lighter with only 143 neutrons) which is radioactive.  In the US, reactor fuel uranium has to enriched to about 5 percent U-235. 

            This is done by first converting uranium into a gaseous compound, then spinning it at high speed in a tubular centrifuge.  This flings the heavier isotopes toward the outer edge, and the slightly lighter isotopes are pulled from the center, to be processed in the next centrifuge, repeated in a series with as many as 1000 steps.  This is very energy and time intensive.  Nine pounds of uranium depleted of U-235 is produced for each pound of enriched reactor fuel, which now costs over $7,000. 

            The US currently has 92 working reactors, mostly sized at 1,100 megawatts, which each hold about 100 tons of enriched uranium.  The byproducts of the fission process slowly degrade the economic functioning of the reactor fuel, which must then be replaced when only 5 percent of the fissionable U-235 has been consumed.  In practice, a quarter of the fuel rods, 25 tons, are replaced each year.  This is called spent fuel, even though 95 percent of the enriched uranium is still intact.  The rods are extremely radioactive, lethal to life for hundreds of thousands of years.  Even though it has been 70 years since the first reactor went online, there is still no domestic radioactive waste disposal site.  It is stored in casks onsite at the reactors, like mentally unstable people who keep their urine and feces in jars in their bedroom. 

            This so called clean power source annually produces 50,000 pounds of the most long-lasting toxic material even seen on the planet, which required 500,000 pounds of uranium ore before enrichment, leaving at least 500,000,000 pounds of toxic tailings scattered around the countryside.  This is the yearly impact of only one reactor, and the US has 92.  Just to boil water.

            Unfortunately, that is not the whole story.  The annual fuel use for each reactor also produces 450,000 pounds of depleted uranium (DU), a very expensive byproduct of the nuclear fuel cycle.  Corporation have incentive is to find a return on this investment.  Uranium is very dense, one of the heaviest elements in the periodic table.  The Pentagon buys DU to use as armor piercing bullets, which can punch through steel, especially useful against tanks.  

            Upon impact, the uranium is vaporized, quickly recondensing as very fine, long lived, toxic particles, which spreads with the wind.  Where DU has been used, such as Bosnia and Iraq, large areas were contaminated, and little effort was been made to clean them up.  Equipment, soldiers, and civilians have been contaminated.  In the body, uranium metal gravitates toward bones and gonads.  Contaminated service members have passed this on to their spouses. 

            Only a corporate booster, with no compassion or awareness of the whole system, would consider nuclear a clean source of energy.  But as one of the most expensive, heavily subsidized, centralized energy forms, it makes money, keeping shareholders happy.

 

 

 

 

 

Connecting The Dots

                                                                                             written 11 July, 2025

                                                                                          pubished 20 July, 2025

  

            A structural limitation of capitalism is the silo effect, where one part can make a profit while degrading the larger company or even the whole economy.  A poster child for this was Enron, which appeared to be a spectacular financial success in 2001, making the cover of Forbes magazine just a few weeks before going bankrupt, when off books losses were revealed.  Reality is whole, and attempts to ignore that are doomed to eventual failure.  Consequently, whole systems thinking makes sense in the long run.  

            After WW2, the British global empire was effectively over, and England had to chose between trying to revive that old order or recommit to being a democracy.  It chose the latter.  One of the policy changes was a universal health care system.  

            At the time, most homes were heated by burning coal, which was a relatively affordable domestic fossil fuel.  Because the adverse health effects of coal burning cost the individual home owners, they weren't accounted in the heating costs.  When the government began paying for health care costs, it became apparent that burning coal was a huge burden on the society.  The government subsidized a program to change residential heating from coal to electricity, understanding that this one-time expense was much less than the ongoing health costs of the old system.  Connecting the dots with whole system thinking showed the advantage of a targeted investment to get long term savings.

            Today we are facing a similar problem.  Ongoing combustion of fossil fuels has changed atmospheric chemistry, retaining more heat each decade.  This increases extreme weather events, including fires and storms, with infrastructure destruction growing each year.  The insurance industry evolved to spread financial risk over time, setting yearly payments at a level to cover yearly claims, plus a margin of profitability.  As the cost of annual destruction has increased, companies are forced to raise rates or go bankrupt.  When consumers complain, some states try to cap rate increases, which ignores reality, so companies stop writing new insurance policies, perhaps leaving the area completely.  Even if rates aren't capped, the increases soon become unaffordable.

            Whether unaffordable or unavailable, the lack of insurance threatens the real estate and banking industries, as well as the property tax structure for local and state governments.  To avoid this fate, states create insurance funds of their own, such as the California FAIR plan, supported in part by payments from the insurance companies that still want to do any business within that state.  While they try to fill an essential need, coverage is more limited and costs are higher than industry insurance.  However, the fundamental problem of increasing climate caused destruction is completely unaddressed, risking not just collapse of an individual insurance company, but collapse of the entire state economy.

            Fire is California's main problem, but storms are an even bigger problem in Florida, where insurance, if available, is four times more expensive, and some homeowners are facing annual insurance bills up to $16,000 for a modest home.  Those with no mortgage can risk dropping insurance, however the next disaster could wipe them out.

            But the insurance industry refuses to connect the dots, and invests heavily in fossil fuel companies, because they still seem to make money, just like Enron.  Our current federal policy is climate denial, canceling any effort to make a change, and billions are being spent to accelerate the climate crisis with further fossil fuel development.  

            Until climate awareness is addressed head on, the erosion of the economy will only increase.  Climate concern is not a liberal fad.  It is not just about green jobs or polar bears.  It is about the economic viability of our society, and anyone who stills denies this is fooling themselves.

            Insurance is just the immediate bite, an economic impact that might get enough attention to begin making a change before bigger disasters arrive, although it might require a disaster to impact enough people.  The Redwood Valley and Santa Rosa fire storms in 2017 changed local awareness.  Everyone was related to someone, or knew someone, who was affected.  The entire community organized to help.  

            But judging by the recent election, and the climate denial policies now in place, those fires weren't enough.  Hurricane damage in the southeast wasn't enough.  The recent flooding in Texas wasn't enough.

            But rest assured, the disasters will grow until it is enough.  The only question is timing.

 

 

 

 

State of the Nation

                                                                                               written 6 July, 2025

                                                                                         published 13 July, 2025

 

            On this 4th of July weekend, celebrating the 249th anniversary of the founding of our nation, our country seems to be in trouble.  The Republican Senate and House narrowly passed the "Big Beautiful Bill", reducing taxes for the wealthiest, while impoverishing the poorest, throwing millions off health care.  The national debt will grow by more than 10 percent, causing the US credit rating to be downgraded, keeping interest rates high.

            The Republican Supreme Court declared the president above the law, who needn't follow judicial orders, allowing him to disregard the Constitution which he swore to uphold when taking office.   

            The administration is populated by presidential loyalists, without regard for knowledge of, or competence in, the job they hold.  Revenge against anyone who thwarts presidential whim, including whistle blowers and journalists, is now policy.  Attacks on undocumented immigrants have militarized the justice system and disrupted core parts of the economy that depend on cheap labor, including food production, construction, and care workers.  Combining with TACO tariff uncertainty, the economy has already begun to slow.

            The president openly favors foreign dictators, disparages and bullies traditional allies, and is blatant about turning the executive office into a cash machine for his personal and family businesses.  In addition, his deteriorating mental condition is becoming more obvious every week, which even Fox News has begun to acknowledge.

            However, none of this is unique.  America has had corrupt, incompetent, even demented, leaders in the past.  The American ideal of equal justice under the law is a noble goal, but in practice, women and people of color were originally left out, and had to fight for inclusion.  The Senate is designed to be unrepresentative.  California, with 2 Senators, has as many citizens as the 20 least populated states, with 40 Senators.  

            My primary grief is the climate crisis, officially denied and declared a hoax.  Climate mention is being removed from Federal documents and websites.  Research is being defunded.  Programs to deal with the problem are now canceled.  Other countries are pressured to repeal their efforts.  Funding for weather reporting is being cut, leaving everyone blind to what is coming.  Disaster relief funds have been shifted to deporting undocumented aliens, throwing States on their own financially.  Instead, the push is on for consumption of expensive, finite fossil fuels, further destabilizing the climate, and guaranteeing higher energy prices.    

            But reality doesn't care about denial.  An intense night time downpour in central Texas, recently caused a river to rise 26' feet in one hour.  Inadequate weather reporting, resulting from budget cuts, increased the death toll.  106 large fires are currently burning in Alaska, with another 84 in the lower 48.  This will get worse.

            All of the above results from the same long standing cultural error: the belief in separation in a unity reality.  The greed and corruption of exclusive economic gain, wide spread misogyny and racism, and the complete disregard for the value of the environment and long-term sustainability of life, follow from this error.

            The collapse of the political/economic model that has overshot the carrying capacity of the planet, powered by the rapid consumption of unique, irreplaceable stores of fossil energy, looks like a disaster.  But from another perspective, it may be a cathartic healing of thousands of years of human misperception.

            Which suggests an effective response.  As a product of this culture, to the extent that I begin to heal myself, opening to being part of a conscious unity, to that extent my small portion of reality changes.  This has been known for generations, and a path forward is easy to find once you start looking.  

            One tool, common to many spiritual traditions, recognizes that all experience of reality happens only in the moment: the eternal Now.  All action takes place only in the now.  However, my thinking is often rooted in the past or the future, which are concepts, not experiences.  The apparent tsunami of dire events tends to pull us into longing for the remembered past, or worrying about the possible future.  The more often I can pull my attention into this moment, the more I am able to experience what is actually happening, and am more able to respond appropriately.  Most times, when I succeed in focusing on this moment, I find I am fine, and relatively at peace with life.  

            The world is rapidly unfolding.  The challenge is to keep our balance as best we can.

 

 

 

 

 

A Tale of Two Countries

                                                                                            written 29 June, 2025

                                                                                           published 6 July, 2025

            The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that 2024 was the warmest year since record keeping began in 1880.  The rate of warming has increased nine-fold to 0.27°C per decade today.  This drives an increase in extreme weather events, such as torrential downpours, stronger wind and fire storms, and deadly heatwaves.  The ocean is warming and acidifying, disrupting sea life, and sea level is rising.  

            Globally, the economic costs are already apparent and more than 80 percent of the world’s people want their governments to do more about climate change.  Combined, the US and China produce almost half of the global GDP, but their responses to the climate crisis are very different, especially under our present administration.  

            Since 2020, the U.S. has added 84,200 megawatts (MW) of solar and 7,000 MW of wind (about 30 percent of the global total) and a 15-fold increase of utility battery capacity to 30,000 megawatt hours (MWh).  Battery chemistries are now more varied, and costs are dropping as the scale of manufacturing increases.  Consequently, new renewable energy power plants, with storage, are the most economically competitive form of power generation.  Solar arrays with batteries are the quickest to deploy, with shorter deployment times than constructing new natural gas power plants.

            But the current administration is determined to destroy the whole renewable industry, proclaiming the entire climate crisis a "hoax".  Federal subsidies have been repealed and new taxes are being proposed to stall further renewable development.  EV charging systems are being dismantled, and US governmental assets are being forced to sell EV investments.  The domestic financial industry is being told to defund further renewable projects, and pressure is being applied to force other countries to follow suit.  

            Oil, natural gas, and nuclear are the preferred Republican energy sources, although those are all expensive, and consume diminishing finite resources, mostly imported from other countries.  The recent attacks in the middle east are about access to nuclear power and have threatened economic disruption of shipping of gas and oil.  This show of power requires a huge Pentagon budget, further adding to energy costs.  Republican policy ensures continued profits for the billionaire status quo, but impoverishes the general public.  Even if massive increases in these energy sources could happen in time, or be affordable, they ignore the growing climate crisis.  That is what passes for wisdom in the US today.

            In contrast, China, with few domestic oil and gas resources, embraced renewable power as a national economic policy, and now leads the world in electrification of their economy, 30 percent compared to 22 percent in the US and the EU.  China, now the primary manufacturer of affordable alternative energy hardware, with over half of the world's solar installations, increasing 50 percent faster than the global average, is positioned to be an economic superpower in clean energy technologies going forward.  

            China produces electric vehicles of all kinds.  In 2024, EV's were almost half of all passenger cars sold in China, up from just 6 percent in 2020.  BYD, China's primary auto company, sells more EV's annually than Tesla, and markets some EV's in the EU for less than $8,000.  Yadea, another Chinese company, sells electric scooters for $700 with 150 mile range. 

            China is leading in new battery designs, including very fast charging, and complete battery swaps in just a few minutes, and is already manufacturing new chemistries, like sodium ion batteries which are cheaper and safer.

            Globally, EVs sales are increasing, while combustion vehicle sales continue to fall, reducing oil demand.  The reality of this "peak demand" for oil has kept wholesale oil prices low, despite the recent conflict in Iran.  While that might seem good for consumers, the price is too low for most oil companies to make a profit, so further exploration efforts have diminished.

            The two largest economies on the planet have staked out divergent paths.  China is investing in a sustainable energy future and the US is doubling down on an expensive, obsolete energy past.  It is still unclear if there really is a sustainable solution to the climate crisis, because environmental events are unfolding more rapidly each year, and we have squandered decades in denial.  But it is very clear that the past is no longer here.  However, politicians and the very wealthy seem to be quite divorced for reality, and the rest of us are along for the ride.