Watch What They Do

                                                                                                          written 9 October 2022

                                                                                                    published 16 October 2022

    

            In the 2 October, 2022 UDJ, one of the letters to the editor was an impassioned plea for folks to vote Republican, because Democrats are "endangering our country".  He says Republicans "want lower taxes, lower fuel prices, smaller government, a safer environment, and judges and prosecutors who abide by the law".  He also claims that Republicans did not take away any abortion rights.

            While this person may believe what he says, I believe Republican extremism is destroying our country.  However, just believing something doesn't make it true.  It is important to look at what people actually do, rather than just what they say.

            The climate crisis is already here, so let's examine Republican actions to create "a safer environment".  For decades, the GOP party line has been that climate change is a hoax, the fiction of greedy scientists, or just natural variations, and therefore nothing to get worried about.  Florida has gone so far as outlawing official use of the terms "climate change" or "sea level rise", despite being one of the most affected states.  If you won't acknowledge the existence of a problem, you will never solve it.

            Hurricane Ian just trashed the center of Florida.  When the federal bill to fund emergency relief came to a vote, all 16 of the Florida Republicans in the House of Representatives voted against the funding, including those representing the most devastated counties.  In the Senate, one Florida Republican voted against the bill and the other Republican didn't bother to show up for the vote.  The bill passed because of Democratic action.

            The Supreme Court, now dominated by extremist Republicans, voted to prohibit the EPA from regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide, the key element driving the climate crisis.  Congressional Democratic action gave that power back to the EPA. 

            "Smaller government and lower taxes" are long standing Republican goals, which primarily help the very wealthy.  By limiting and starving the government, corporations are given freer rein, and their primary goal is increased shareholder returns.  That is why no corporations are rushing funds to help repair Florida.  Reducing regulations allows corporations to make greater profits by polluting the planet, externalizing their costs to the general public.  Republican actions lead to environment degradation.

            Fuel prices are high for three reasons.  One, very few countries have excess oil production for export, and they want to maximize their profits.  Two, oil corporations have monopoly control over refining capacity, and they want to maximize their profits.  Three, all the cheap oil has been discovered, developed, burned, and depleted, leaving only expensive, hard to extract oil reserves, and they are inadequate to meet the growing demand.  None of this is Biden's fault, despite what the Republicans say.  In addition, the more oil we burn, the faster we cook the planet.

            Historically, the Republican party supported the rule of law, but that has been sacrificed to remain in power.  Over time, the Republican Supreme Court has allowed the wealthy to buy elections, rigged the voting districts, and gutted the Voting Rights Act to enable voter discrimination, showing that the rule of law can be subverted for partisan gains.  The "raid" on Mar Lago is a good example.  Trump himself made mishandling of classified documents a felony, but now claims he can declassify by simply thinking it is so.  After months of requests to return documents unlawfully taken from the White House, and legal attestation that everything had been returned, a warranted search found 11,000 more, including over 100 that were classified.  Thwarting the rule of law, Trump found a compliant judge to stall facing the consequences.  This isn't "abiding by the law", but distorting the law for privilege. 

            Finally, we come to the issue of abortion.  For decades the Republicans have worked to outlaw it, finally stacking the Supreme Court with religious zealots to make it happen.  Now that they discover that most of America thinks that is a bad idea, they are running from the consequences.  They not only destroyed women's rights in the states they dominate, they are now lobbying to make the ban universal across the country.  Statements to the contrary are not supported by facts, but are lying hypocrisy.

            The choice this November is indeed very clear.  Decide for yourself.  Look at what people do, not just what they say.  Vote Democratic.  The country you save could be your own.

  

Considering Ian

                                                                                                           written 2 October 2022

                                                                                                       published 9 October 2022

 

            As I am writing this, hurricane Ian is making landfall in South Carolina as a category 1 storm, having recharged in the Atlantic after trashing Florida for two days.  The videos of damage in Florida are distressing.  While the death toll is still relatively low, it is expected to climb as searchers reach more of the destroyed areas.  Millions of folks were without power, and it will take weeks to get it all restored.  Rebuilding roads, bridges and other core infrastructure, will take longer, hindering a return to "normal".  Damage estimates are now as high as $100B, but that is probably just for repairs.  The total losses will be higher, when lost wages and business income are added in.  

            Ian hit as a category 4 storm, with eyewall winds of 155mph, just shy of the 157mph denoting a category 5.  The storm surge was one of the largest on record, inundating relatively flat coastal areas.  The rainfall totals were near record in amount and extent, covering almost the entire state, causing extensive flooding.  The extreme size and power resulted from passing over some of the warmest waters on record, one of the manifestations of climate change.  This was one of the ten largest hurricanes to ever hit the US, the fourth in just the last 5 years.

            It is hard to think about all this.  On the one hand, I feel for all the people affected, but I know that the Republican "leaders" of Florida have outlawed using the phrase "climate change", because they don't believe it is real.  Miami is building expensive sea walls to deal with "persistent sunny day flooding", because "sea level rise" is another prohibited phrase.

            Florida governor DeSantis has been in the news for pushing his extremist Republican agenda in a bid for the presidency in 2024, but now has to deal with a sudden intrusion of reality.  When DeSantis was a Congressman, one of his first votes was to deny federal funding to survivors of hurricane Sandy, which hit blue states.  Now, of course, he is very grateful to have federal aid for his state.  This passes for integrity in the Republican party.

            I am befuddled by the systemic denial I see in our culture.  Conservatives are correct that dealing with the climate crisis demands a complete restructuring of how we do business, which will disrupt the status quo where some people are massively wealthy, while the majority struggles.  I understand they want to preserve their privilege, but how can they deny the reality of a changing world?

            Today I read an interview with Joanna Macy, describing work by Robert Jay Lifton, who coined the term "psychic numbing"; not wanting to look at distressing information.  This led Macy to create what she calls "despair work", because reality doesn't go away if we don't look at it.  It just keeps building until it literally blows down the walls. 

            The Trump presidency, and current Republican policy, bring long standing, unresolved issues to the light of day.  Their crass embracing of misogyny, racism, and corruption encourages people holding those views to come out into the open for all to see.  This is the illusion of separation, believing one race, sex, or economic class, is better than another.  Killing the planet for profit, the core of the climate crisis, is more of the same illusion.  Fortunately, the last two elections showed most Americans reject that perspective, and I expect further rejection this November. 

            While the climate crisis is an external challenge, it is symbolic of this deeper inner work; rising above the illusion of separation.  Embracing reality demands courage and deep internal investigation.  It means we have to look at our fears, not to become obsessed with them, but to hear their story.  By acknowledging the abuses we have inflicted on our planet and others, we begin healing ourselves, opening to the fact that we are all interdependent.  

            Misogyny, racism, and corruption, are cultural and political creations, which can be ignored and preserved by violent domination, even if it distorts the entire society.  The good news is the climate crisis is a conflict with reality, which can't be dominated into submission.  Society has to evolve, and get into harmony with our climate, before everything is swept away.  By learning to love the world, we will also learn to love each other.  It's all connected.

 

 

Renewable California

                                                                                                     written 25 September 2022

                                                                                                       published 2 October 2022

            Two weeks ago, the UDJ printed Dan Walters article questioning if California could build a 100% renewable power economy.   He correctly pointed out that the existing grid is already operating at capacity some of the time, and the plan to decarbonize the entire economy will require two to three times more electricity.  In addition to limited grid infrastructure, our entire transportation fleet will have to be replaced, and all our building heating will have to shift away from fossil fuels.  Because we have delayed dealing with the climate crisis, this will all have to happen as soon as possible, and be completed within 20 years.  He questions if this is affordable, or even possible.  But let's examine what would happen if we don't even try.

            Without rapid decarbonization, the extreme heatwave this summer will soon be viewed as a good year.  Hazardous high temperatures are expected to increase by a factor of ten in the next 30 years.  Rivers in the southwest are at record low levels, threatening 2/3 of the fruit and vegetables produced in the US.  What rain arrives often comes as intense inundations, like the 3" Ukiah received in less than 24 hours.

            So far, large wildfires have been relatively rare this year.  However, fire insurance companies are beginning to pull out of California or raise rates to unaffordable levels.  The State fire insurance system is a last resort, but is not comprehensive or cheap.  As the insurance situation deteriorates, the mortgage system will become precarious.  If a buyer can't get insurance, lenders will be scarce.  Imagine what that will do to property values and the tax base?    

            When fires burn through a community, the local economy takes a hit, even if everyone is able to rebuild, further stressing the economic health of the local governments.  In Paradise, the underground water and sewer systems were affected, requiring massive reinvestment.

            Mendocino county economy is heavily dependent on tourism.  If it is too hot outside, or too smoky, or the water supply is too limited, where is the leisure attraction?

            The wine industry is another significant portion of the county economy.  Mendocino is known for its varietal grapes, which depend on relatively stable microclimates that are now rapidly changing.  At some point all the vines will have to be replanted with different varieties more tolerant to the warming climate, assuming that is possible or economical.  In addition, smoke taint is already a problem.  This destroys the value of the wine and sometimes only shows up long after bottling. 

            Intense inundation, the other side of the climate swing, is just as economically challenging.  While our county terrain has amazing capacity for handling rainfall, as extremes increase, so does the impact.  Area flooding and storm drain failures will increase, as well as debris flow in burned areas and general land movement.  All of this increases the cost of keeping the community functioning.  We are also subject to being completely cut off in a large scale inundation event, such as the 1861 flooding of the Central Valley.  These widespread events have occurred every 150-200 years, but the warming climate increase the likelihood by a factor of three or four.  

            We have little food resilience, and no power resilience in Mendocino county, and are totally dependent on complex technological infrastructures that are many decades old.  These systems were designed for a climate that is no more, and will never return in our lifetime.  Such complex systems can experience cascading collapse when simple things fail.  While we still have time, we must begin planning for our new climate reality.

            Some individuals can afford a degree of personal resilience, but the larger challenge is to think in terms of community resilience, building systems that will endure to support future generations, as well as our own.

            For example, our electrical power system operates on the old paradigm of a few large production centers shipping power to all the consumers over an extensive grid.  This is no longer adequate, either in capacity or resilience.  Building distributed production and storage can maximize the existing interconnection of the grid while increasing local resilience.  Every community needs to begin planning.

            It is estimated that decarbonizing the planet will cost about $23T, which seems daunting.  However, the existing global infrastructure is worth about $700T.  Preserving all that is worth the effort.  Our descendants will thank us.

 

Nuclear (Again!)

                                                                                                     written 18 September 2022

                                                                                                 published 25 September 2022

                                                          

            The climate crisis recently delivered record breaking heat, threatening the California electricity grid, creating official panic after decades of denial.  One manifestation was the sudden, last minute extension of the operating permit for the Diablo Canyon nuclear complex.

            A recent UDJ editorial described nuclear power as renewable (false), although the actual electricity produced is non carbon.  However, a whole life assessment shows a nuclear plant releases as much carbon as a natural gas peaker plant, when considering the energy used in mining and enriching the uranium, the production of concrete and steel, and the construction of the plant.  That doesn't include the carbon released in decommissioning a large plant (never been done yet), nor the centuries of high level nuclear waste disposal (also never been done yet).

            Nuclear energy is the most expensive electricity on the market today, part of why the industry is declining.  The Diablo Canyon facility has two 1100MW, Westinghouse reactors, each contains 4500 tons of enriched uranium.  When uranium fissions (splits), energy is released and fission byproducts are created.  These byproducts degrade the energy efficiency of the fuel, requiring fuel replacement after five years, even though only 5 percent of the uranium has been consumed.  Enriched uranium has low levels of radiation, but once the fuel contains fission byproducts, the radiation levels are dangerously high, with the potential to kill a human within minutes.  With no disposal site available, this "spent" fuel is stored on site, with 43,000 tons now at the Diablo Canyon facility.  Nuclear power is not only expensive, it has serious consequences if anything fails.  The nuclear industry assures us they have it "all under control", but reality differs.

            The Fukushima nuclear complex had six General Electric reactors go online in 1971.  The 2011 quake generated a 30' high tsunami, which flooded the emergency cooling pumps, leading to reactor cores melting, with subsequent hydrogen explosions, in the three units operating at the time.  While the wind was blowing mostly offshore to the east, highly radioactive contamination was detected 150 miles south in Tokyo.  The full extent of the reactor damages are still unknown, but repair costs are expected to exceed $1T.

            Design for the Diablo Canyon reactor complex began in 1965, with construction beginning in 1968.  It was known that the San Andreas fault was 45 miles to the east, but in 1969 the Hosgri fault was discovered 2.5 miles to the west, requiring plant redesign. 

The units went online in 1985, with final costs increasing from $376M to $5.5B.  In 2008 the Shoreline fault was discovered less than a mile to the west.  The National Regulatory Commission, with the contradictory goals of both regulating nuclear power and promoting it, voted 3-2 that the design was "good enough".  In 2015, the Diablo Cove fault was discovered, which runs directly under the foundation of the facility.   

            Normal reactor design life is about 40 years, and PG&E had been planning to shutdown in 2025, due to failing economics and expensive upgrades required because intense radiation makes metal brittle and weak.  In addition, the wrong welding rod was used during construction, further increasing risk of embrittlement.  A recent UDJ article argued that the expected seismic movements on the various known faults were adequately calculated in the plant design, but there is no public assessment of how the reactors have been degraded by embrittlement.  PG&E says their reactor embrittlement report is "proprietary", even though a seismic or thermal shock could cause massive failure.  San Francisco is 240 miles north, Los Angeles is 150 miles south, and Central Valley agriculture is 100 miles east.  As a long standing gift to the nuclear industry, no insurance written covers losses due to nuclear contamination.  None!   

            The recent 5 year extension agreement provides an initial $1.4B payment, with an open check for further upgrades, paid for by all California ratepayers, with all work exempt from California Environmental Quality Act.

            We are being asked to choose between killing the planet with carbon or risking wide spread nuclear contamination from an aging, compromised reactor.  We can choose "none of the above".  The recent threat to the grid was avoided by timely reduction of demand.  Like cranky infants, we want electricity whenever we want it.  Perhaps we can learn to live within our power income, living more modestly when required, while we create a safe, sustainable power system.

 

 

 

Awakened Activism

                                                                                                     written 11 September 2022

                                                                                                 published 18 September 2022

 

            Humanity is in the midst of an evolution of consciousness, emerging from the illusion of separation, awakening to unity reality.  The climate crisis demands a unity response.

            As climate destruction breaks new records, climate action is hindered primarily not by deniers and skeptics, but by business and political "leaders" who support only incremental solutions, saying we can’t move too quickly lest we disrupt the economic order.  But as Swami Beyondananda says: "With no livable Earth, there is no GDP."  Decades of corporate greed wasted the opportunity for gradual change.  Avoiding collapse now requires radical change and radical thinking, with new forms of activism.  

            Patricia Pearce, in her 24 August 2022 WE Awakening podcast, describes old school activism as a type of toxic energy, using domination and violence in the streets to accomplish ends.  An awakened activism needs to be visionary, speaking to the heart, presenting what is possible, inspiring each person to unifying their temporal and eternal parts. She presents the image, "when chopping wood, aim for the chopping block, not the firewood."  Clara Vondrich, published in Resilience, 25 August 2022, describes the aim as "quantum social change".

            "This [r]evolutionary new academic discipline, pioneered by social scientist Karen O’Brien, PhD, panpsychologist Zhiwa Woodbury, science journalist Lynn McTaggart, and others, suggests that the mind-bending principles that describe the subatomic world are also relevant to our daily lives.  Just as quantum physics disrupted our view of matter and energy, smashing the Newtonian paradigm of a fixed physical reality, quantum social change disrupts our beliefs about what’s possible, how fast, and by whom.  Albert Einstein said: We cannot solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them."

            The world of quantum mechanics demonstrates Entanglement and Non-locality, Complementarity, Potentiality and Indeterminacy. 

            Entanglement occurs when a group interacts in such a way that they become interconnected, even when separated by a large distance.  Non-locality means this interconnection transcends space/time.  It has been demonstrated that not only is matter non-local, but consciousness is as well. 

            However, unfettered individualism, rooted in the illusion of separation, is behind the destruction of human rights, the rise of domination autocracy, the decimation of Indigenous cultures, and the unrestrained plundering of the natural world.  In contrast, community and connection are proven to insulate us from stress, give our lives meaning and allow us to be part of something “bigger.”  The more entangled we are, the better we seem to do.

            For example, the divestment movement to pull money out of coal, oil, and gas started slowly in 2012.  Ten years later, 1,500 institutions have divested assets exceeding $40 trillion.  Once the idea was planted, campaigns popped up simultaneously all over the world.  What we do has far-flung, unseen, and unexpected consequences.  The connective quality of computer technology, totally dependent on quantum hardware, is a great demonstration of non-locality today.

            Complementarity holds that objects behave as either particles or waves, depending on how they are observed.  As humans, we each exist as both individuals and as cells in the meta-organism that is Gaia.  This means that we all have agency to join in and help power social movements.  When complementarity is nurtured, “I” becomes “we” and our capacity for change grows exponentially.

            Quantum potentiality, different from classical probability, means many possible outcomes all exist simultaneously.  Indeterminacy means nothing is fixed.  Nothing is predictable.  A higher order can quite suddenly emerge from apparent chaos.  A radical shift from our current trajectory is always possible.  In a chaotic world, the right catalyst creates unpredictable outcomes, and quantum leaps (non-linear changes) are possible when people and movements embrace potentiality and the hope it can bring.  

            With a naive understanding of space/time, our ignorant arrogance is killing the planet for the profit of a few.  The climate crisis demands our awakening to the infinite possibilities of our quantum paradigm; the unstoppable power of individuals within a collective.  As we allow ourselves to experience this quantum reality, awakening from the Newtonian delusion of separate "self", we help shift our society toward manifesting the deeper unity.  We all have this power, because we arise out of this unity.  When a bubble pops, the surface thins, and then ruptures at a single spot, which propagates throughout the entire structure.  Every moment of individual practice of unity awareness is an active force toward thinning the illusion of separation.  This is awakened activism.

 

 

Flooding

                                                                                                      written 4 September 2022

                                                                                                published 11 September 2022

 

            One of the consequences of the disrupted climate is wild swings in the weather.  For example, this summer, Dallas, Texas has been suffering from heat and drought conditions that have threatened the integrity of their electric grid.  Wildfires burned through a Dallas suburb a month ago, destroying 15 homes.  Two weeks later, that same area was flooded when a record breaking 15" of rain fell in 24 hours.  Such massive rainfall is considered a 1,000 year event, but was intensely localized, with only 2" falling just 25 miles away.  Roads turned into rivers, a State of Emergency was declared, hundreds of flights were cancelled, and one person died. 

            A similar 1,000 year flood hit Jackson, the capitol of Mississippi, population 153,000.  In August, almost 13" fell in four days, about three time their normal monthly rainfall.  Decades of structural racism had underfunded the city, causing decaying infrastructure, with 40 percent of treated water lost due to broken pipes and inefficient equipment.  Consequently, the sudden influx of rainwater adversely impacted the city's water treatment plant, slowing down water production at the plant to the point of collapse.  Throughout the entire city, there is now insufficient water volume, or quality, to fight fires, flush toilets, drink, cook or bathe.  What city water is available must be boiled before use.

            But flooding this August was not limited to the United States, and the worst has been in Pakistan, population 230 million.  Since June, it has been raining for over 3 months, and monsoon storms have occurred twice as often as usual, delivering 5 times as much rain.  This was on top of a record breaking heat wave from March to June, hitting 124°F at times, which caused massive glacier melt in the northern part of the country.  The monsoon inundation caused many of the glacial melt lakes to burst their bounds, adding to the downstream disaster. 

            All of Pakistan is affected, but the south and northwest were hit the hardest.  One third of the country is now flooded, displacing 33 million people, leaving 20 million homeless, with 1,200 dead so far.  In the northwestern mountainous region, roads, bridges, and building have been destroyed, as raging rivers flowed through normal city streets.  The southern portion is now a flooded lake, destroying the agricultural output of the country, which used to export rice, wheat, and sugar.  

            This flooding, the largest in living memory, is expected to cost more than $10B.  Already a poor country, Pakistan is now dealing with not only the massive infrastructure destruction but a huge population that has lost everything, with no food, shelter, or potable water.  The flood waters are contaminated with raw sewage and chemicals, insect populations have exploded, and water borne diseases are spreading rapidly.

            This kind of inundation is referred to as an "atmospheric river".  The warming atmosphere and oceans increase the volume of water carried in these systems.  A recent study from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography indicates that flooding damages from these events now cost more than $1B per year in the 11 western American states.  Lead author Tom Corringham said, “The threat of a megaflood in the western United States is very real.  As atmospheric rivers become more intense, flood damages are on track to triple by the end of the century, but the impacts will be felt sooner."  

            The California counties identified most at risk of increased flood damages are Sonoma, Yuba, Sacramento, and Los Angeles.  Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could reduce damages, as would investment in floodplain restoration and flood-managed aquifer recharge.  The researchers project that, if no action is taken, expected atmospheric river related flood damages will increase by 10 percent each decade until the 2050s, rising more steeply as the century progresses.

            But the damage could be much larger.  In 1861, it rained in California for 43 days, flooding more than 3/4 of the California Central Valley, taking 6 months to drain away.  This was the first such event since the Europeans had arrived, but subsequent research has shown they happen every 150-200 years.  Climate change will make things worse.

            It's hard for humans to consider low probability, high risk future events such as the adverse impacts of climate change, and our economy is oriented toward short term benefits.  Although we can now see the problem, are we wise enough to make the effort?

 

 

Heat And Drought

                                                                                                         written 28 August 2022

                                                                                                  published 4 September 2022

     

            So far this summer, we in California have been fortunate, with none of the massive fires that have defined "summer" for the last half decade.  However, heat and drought have hit extremes all over the planet, affecting not only the US, but Europe and China.

            The decline of the Colorado River leaves Lake Mead and Lake Powell at 25 percent of capacity, affecting water supplies for over 40 million people.  Since 80 percent of the water goes to agriculture, this will affect food production. The Northeast had a "flash drought", very intense and destructive regional heating.

            Heat in Texas has stressed their electrical system to the point of rolling cutbacks to preserve grid integrity.  The Austin area had over 35 days of triple digit heat, with lows above 88°.  Throughout the mid-west, crops are dying in the fields, and livestock is being culled due to lack of water and feed.  Hydroelectric production is reduced and thermal power plants are affected by lack of water for steam production.  

            In Europe, heatwaves are hitting countries like England, which rarely experience such heat and don't have widespread air conditioning.  Major rivers in France, Germany, and Italy are so low that barge transportation is severely curtailed, and nuclear power plants have to shut down due to lack of cooling water.  Salt water intrusion up river is killing fish populations.

            China is having such a widespread heat and drought that large portions of their manufacturing infrastructure have shut down due to lack of water, depressing the global economy, and crop losses are beginning to threaten Chinese food security.

            Despite what climate deniers want you to believe, the climate crisis is already here.  More distressing, there is a decade long time lag between when carbon dioxide is injected into the atmosphere and when the temperature reflects that increase.  Half the carbon dioxide humans have emitted during the industrial revolution has come in just the last 30 years.  That means we are already committed to another 15 percent increase in warming, and every year we continue to add even more carbon dioxide.  As one climate researcher put it, "this isn't just the hottest year to date, but is the coolest year for the rest of your life." 

            Sarah Trent, wrote the following in the 25 August, 2022 High Country News; 

"Climate change is causing overnight lows to rise at a faster clip than daytime highs.  Human mortality rates will rise, because people don’t sleep as well in heat and their bodies are less able to recover from daytime heat stress."

            "Staple crop yields will shrink: rice, corn and wheat yields will all drop by 5 percent to 40 percent because plants, like people and animals, require a state of rest at night.  Fruit, vegetables and wine will change, because many require cool nights to develop the qualities and flavors people like."

            "Invasive species will continue to expand northward, because the coldest winter temperatures won’t kill as many of them.  Even more salmon and trout will die, because night temperatures play an outsized role in keeping rivers cool.  Wildfires will get harder to fight, because nighttime fire activity is on the rise."

            Weather and health experts are beginning to categorize heat waves, making it possible to warn people in advance.  A tentative system has been implemented in Spain, after their heat experience this summer.  Category 0: High temperatures: health risk for vulnerable communities.  Category 1: Very high temperatures: avoid prolonged exposure to heat, inform vulnerable community members.  Category 2: Exceptionally high temperature: health risks, take precautions, prepare to help most vulnerable.  Category 3: Extreme temperatures: major health risk, take maximum precautions.  The specifics will vary by location, based not only on temperature, but also humidity.  A recent Harvard report indicated lethal heat days will increase by a factor of ten in the next 30 years, making working outdoors more difficult, particularly in the tropics.

            The coal mine canaries are all dead, and alarms have been ringing for decades, yet the world is still more concerned with partisan politics and increased economic consumption, oblivious to the fact that all this is at risk of collapse.  If there is any chance of avoiding the worst of what is already in motion, we will have to act decisively and globally, starting now.  We have squandered the opportunity for gradual changes.  Are we up for it?