The Climate Crisis Is Serious

                                                                                                      written 6 November 2022

                                                                                                published 13 November 2022

 

            The 29 October UDJ column by George Will denigrated the Federal Reserve for beginning to assess the fiscal impact of the climate crisis, trivializing the economic impact.  Because Will believes the Fed can only affect the next 5 years, any climate response is irrelevant to the long term.  He embraces the illusion that the "our modern, diversified, industrialized, service-oriented economy is not affected by the weather."  He claims the worst-case climate scenario would reduce GDP by only 10 percent by 2100, without mentioning where he got that number.  In the real world, weather events keep hammering the planet.  

            After a record heat wave, hitting 124°F, three months of torrential rain in Pakistan this summer delivered five times as much water as usual.  This flooded 1/3 of the country, displaced 15 percent of the population, destroyed infrastructure, radically reduced food production, and left large areas contaminated and disease infested.  The economy of Pakistan will not get back to "normal" for years.

            In just the month of October, the Guardian reported the following.  Intense rain in Thailand flooded 59 of the country’s 77 provinces.  Residents described the recent storms as the worst in 30 years.  In Venezuela, El Castaño was the latest town in Aragua state to be devastated by heavy rains, and mudslides ripped through the town of Las Tejerias, after 35 days’ worth of average rainfall fell in a single day.  The worst floods in a decade in Nigeria, affecting at least 18 of its 36 states, displacing over a million internally, with hundreds of communities cut off without access to food, clean water and fuel.  In south-east Australia the second ‘once-in-a-century’ flood in 11 years forced thousands of people from their homes in the states of New South Wales and Victoria, as well as the island state of Tasmania.  In Victoria state, the town of Echuca braced for the worst flood in 150 years, and the town of Kerang expected to be cut off from the rest of the state for two weeks.  In a single hour, Melbourne received half its average monthly rainfall.

            The other side of inundation is drought.  A recent study from the California Environmental Protection Agency reports impact on every resident from record-high temperatures, drought, and unprecedented wildfires.  This September, the West Coast broke nearly 1,000 temperature records during a 10-day heat wave, with many areas baking under triple-digit heat for several consecutive days, straining the electric grid.  The Trinity Alps glaciers and snowfields have virtually disappeared, and the largest glaciers in the Sierra Nevada have lost 65% - 90% of their area.  This decline in crucial freshwater supplies impacts agriculture.  More than a third of the country’s vegetables and 75% of its fruits and nuts are grown in California.

            There were over 6,800 fires in California this year, although no huge ones.  However, the last 20 years saw a severe uptick in wildfires, with more than 4 million acres burned in 2020, double any previous year.  Half of the state’s largest wildfires in the past 70 years happened in 2020 and 2021.  The fire insurance industry is beginning to exit California, or increase prices.  We can see our future by looking at the home insurance industry in Florida, already priced four times the national average, now collapsing due to ever increasing storm damages.

            Our economy is global, massively interconnected, subject to congestion, and vulnerable to sudden, unexpected changes, as witness the pandemic distorting "supply chain issues."  These economic relationships developed over decades, within a relatively stable climate system, which is now changing rapidly.  Of all CO₂ we humans have injected into the atmosphere, half has been in the last 30 years, and the heat we experience now lags behind by 15 years.  This means we will experience the world heating by at least another third more.

            Furthermore, we are adding more carbon every day.  At the very least, we must not make things worse.  The challenge is to decarbonize the global economy as soon as possible.  This will take commitment, money, and resources, much like mobilizing for war, only this is to preserve our habitable planet, not kill it.  To minimize climate concerns by suggesting an economy independent from the natural world, delays response, dooming society, if not our species.  When a firestorm comes over the hill, it is too late to prepare.  

 

 

 

 

The Choices We Make

                                                                                                        written 30 October 2022

                                                                                                  published 6 November 2022

                                                                                       

            The election is a few days off.  Most people have already voted by mail, so we sit here in anticipation, with our fate still to be determined.  The partisan divide is huge.  Republican extremists claim Democrats are all Satan worshipping pedophiles.  Democratic extremists claim Republicans are all fanatical religious money loving fascists.  The growing climate crisis doesn't care.

            As a progressive Democrat, I see the right-wing attacks as external projections of their own unaddressed issues.  My Trump addicted nephew, with deep unresolved rage issues, quickly descends into personal attacks, claiming that libs are all "haters".  Sexually repressed "religious" leaders focus on sexual issues in others, then show up in the news as sexual predators themselves.  Where in the Bible does Christ support hate, abuse, or killing?  Most of those who demonize current immigrants descended from immigrants who enslaved millions and exterminated the Native Americans.  

            I live with a baseball fan, and as we watched the post season games, the Republican ads pushing fear show up regularly, paid for by "Citizens for Sanity", a Florida based Trump aligned group.  The Republican Supreme Court allowed unlimited dark money to fund this kind of campaign.   

            The choice has always been between love and fear, between cooperation and competition, between inclusion and exclusion.  It feels like everything is building to a crescendo because we address only symptoms, not the fundamental cause.  As I have said many times before, humanity is being challenged to awaken from the illusion of separation.

            I recently started reading "Braiding Sweetgrass", by Robin Wall Kimmerer, a Native American university professor of botany.  This wonderful book bridges the division between the reductionism of orthodox science, and the experience of unity fundamental to all the aboriginal cultures.   

            She points out that English, a dominant language of the planet, is 70 percent nouns, which are objects, versus verbs, which are active.  Werner Heisenberg stated that "our experience of the world is structured by the questions we ask".  As an English speaker, my entire language perspective is structured to objectifying everything, rather than experiencing it as active living forms.  Imagine watching your mother being treated as an object, processed into discrete parts, and sold in the market place for private profit.  That is the western way of viewing the natural planet, just resources to be extracted.  However, a unity perspective sees the Earth a living being, nurturing all life with myriad gifts, not earned, but offered.

            For humans, the most immediate offering is the oxygen we require every few seconds.  This is an ongoing gift from the plant and algae beings to everyone, for which we have never paid, just take for granted.  Because we never recognize, or appreciate this as a gift, we mindlessly destroy the sources, killing the forests and poisoning the oceans, as we race for increased fiscal profits.

            Kimmerer describes the Thanksgiving Address, which starts each school day at her local Indian school.  All the students participate in this expression of thanksgiving, enumerating the gifts given by the natural world which benefit humanity.  For each gift mentioned, the response is "we are of one mind", creating a group awareness of gratitude.  This contrasts with our dominate culture rooted in entitlement. 

            In a recent "What Could Possibly Go Right" interview of Joanna Macy by Vicki Robins, Macy describes how she responds to the growing destruction of the planet.  "My first word to anybody would be, don’t be afraid of your sorrow or grief or rage.  Treasure them.  They come from your caring.  When you’re not afraid of that, if you learn to treasure it as binding you to this beautiful planet, then it will nurture in you a fierce clarity for what can be done and be done by just you.  So, you’re going to find in your willingness to be here, a great love.  When you stand in that gratitude to be alive in this world, then when you take the next step into articulating your pain for the world that’s been given and felt, then it grounds you."   

            Live in the present, and start your day with gratitude.  The rest becomes not only manageable, but punctuated with moments of joy and wonder.  The choices we make shape our experience.

            Update from last week: the direct line to sign up for Ukiah's program of 100 percent renewable power is 707-463-6747, ask for Lori.

 

 

"Low Cost" Isn't Always Low

                                                                                                        written 23 October 2022

                                                                                                    published 30 October 2022

  

            One of the illusions of capitalism is externalized costs; hidden real costs that aren't included in the price, expecting someone else to pay them.  A variation is ignoring future costs not calculated into present prices.

            For example, our house was built in 1979 with the required insulation of R-11 in the walls, R-15 above the ceiling, and a large heating/cooling forced air system.  This minimal insulation reduced the initial housing cost, but requires decades of increasingly expensive energy costs to heat and cool.  A friend built a house in Cotati with R-50 walls and R-100 roof, for an extra 10% in construction costs.  During the recent very high heat, the house stayed at 75° with no cooling, and requires almost no heating during the coldest part of winter.  This a life-long energy savings, and doesn't contribute any atmospheric carbon dioxide.  Despite a higher initial cost, it is cheaper when life time operating costs are considered.  This kind of future planning and whole systems thinking is over looked by our cultural obsession with short term "low costs".

            Babcock Ranch, Florida, developed in 2006 about 15 miles east of downtown Fort Myers, is an example of applying whole systems thinking at a community scale.  The planned community of around 5,000 people was designed with extreme weather conditions in mind.  All of the electricity cables and phone lines throughout the community were buried underground so wind, falling trees and blowing debris will never take down power lines.  The utility company, partnered with developers, built and operates a 75MW solar array as part of the community, using large concrete poles to connect the ranch to the rest of state.  In March 2018, a 10MW storage battery was added, making the Babcock Ranch Solar Energy Center the largest solar-plus-storage project operating in the U.S at the time.  

            While this initially costs more, the benefits recently became obvious.  Hurricane Ian gusted over 150 mph, dropped feet of rain, and buffeted Babcock Ranch for over 10 hours.  Throughout the storm they never lost power, water, or internet, the only area of Southwest Florida to be that fortunate.         

            The extensive power outage created by Hurricane Ian shows our traditional energy infrastructure system is ill-equipped to handle worsening weather events amid the growing climate crisis.  This is only going to become more catastrophic.  Syd Kitson, founder of Babcock Ranch, told EcoWatch, “These storms are getting more violent, they’re more frequent.  I think what towns need to think about and municipalities should be thinking about is how do we start.  You have to start somewhere.  So, maybe start with the infrastructure.”

            While preparing for future weather extremes is important, to have any chance of long-term climate viability, we must also stop making the climate issue worse.  In the last few centuries, humanity has increased atmospheric carbon dioxide by 50 percent, and half of that increase occurred in just the last 30 years!  Even if we eliminated further emission today, there is a 15 year lag between CO₂ content and the manifested temperature increase, so we have a significant change already "baked in".  

            Yet we are still adding more CO2 every day, increasing the risk of exceeding critical tipping points that could lead to complete economic disaster, a massive externalized cost.  To avoid this, we must hit zero emission by 2040.  The Federal and California governments have committed to this goal.

            We can all take steps to help.  In Mendocino county, outside of Ukiah city limits, Sonoma Clean Power offers an option called EverGreen, which provides 100 percent renewable power for an extra premium of $0.025/kWh.  Any SCP customer can sign up by calling 855-202-2139 or go to: https://sonomacleanpower.org/evergreen-sign-up-request.

            In the City of Ukiah, the municipal power company now offers a similar 100 percent clean power option for $0.022/kWh.  The City will purchase more renewable power through their provider, NCPA.  This is open to all Ukiah power customers, but participation must be requested.  Call 707-463-6228.  When the first menu comes up, press 1, and at the next menu, press 4.  Have your utility account number ready (in the upper left-hand corner of your bill).  Leave a message with your name, phone number, utility account number, and a request to participate in the new 100 percent renewable energy program.  You will be signed up with no further effort.  Your descendants will thank you.

            

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

We See What We Believe

                                                                                                        written 16 October 2022

                                                                                                    published 23 October 2022

   

            For decades I have had a beer with dinner.  I like ales, and since we moved to Ukiah, my choice has been the Anderson Valley Boont Ale, buying several cases at a time.  Last month I went to the grocery store for more, looking for the familiar six pack of bottles, and couldn't find it!  After searching several times, I saw a small package of Boont in cans.  The brewery has been transitioning from glass bottles to aluminum cans in order to save on shipping breakage and weight, and they finally shifted Boont to cans.  I grabbed some, even though they seemed very small compared to the bottles.  As I walked toward the checkout, I looked at the package and thought I read they were 6 ounce cans, yet they were priced the same as the 12 ounce bottles.  I put them back and went to another store, finding the same situation.  Outrageous!  I wrote the brewery an email in complaint.   

            Some weeks later, my wife had bought some, and I poured one into a pint glass, filling it 3/4 full.  What!  I looked at the can and discovered they were 12 ounce cans!  Seeing the cans were smaller than the bottles, I believed the content was smaller as well.  That belief affected what I read on the packaging, and I was off and running.  I was seeing what I believed.  I wrote another email to the brewery apologizing for being an opinionated fool.

            Fortunately, I was able to experience reality when it appeared in the glass.  No one was harmed by my excursion into fantasy, other than my own sense of self-esteem.  But this kind of mistake is very common, and can have disastrous consequences.

            For example, Alex Jones, of Infowars fame, recently lost a defamation case and was fined $965 million.  Almost a decade ago, a 20 year old man shot and killed 20 first and second graders and 6 teachers in Newton, Connecticut.  At his recent trial, Jones stated that as a gun owner, he couldn't believe that another gun owner would do such a thing, so he decided it must be a fake.  Using his Internet platform, he acted on that belief and broadcast that it was all staged. He accused the parents of staging the killings, using actors as fake victims, in order to make gun owners look bad.  This was all just a liberal plot. 

            Jones published names and addresses of the parents, and some of his followers began harassing them, sending death threats, and pictures of dead children to show what they really looked like.  This has gone on for a decade, because one man saw what he believed, and never really opened to let reality correct his error, while making millions off collective outrage by peddling products on his show.

            Another example is Donald Trump, who was raised to believe that the world consists of killers and losers.  Trump believes he is NEVER a loser, so the election in 2020 had to have been stolen from him by fraud.  The latest January 6th hearing laid out in detail that Trump prepared to stay in office long before the election, and claimed victory before all the votes were even counted.  As the confirmation of his loss became apparent, he doubled down of the lie of a fraud, despite contrary reports from his staff.  He went to court 62 times and lost.  He pressured Republican official in several states to overturn the election results and they refused.  He orchestrated fake slates of electoral delegates and they were rejected.  He tried to fire the head of the Judicial department and appoint a pliable lackey, but was thwarted by threat of mass resignations in the department.  He pressured Vice President Pence to break the law and challenge a few states electors, but Pence refused.  Finally, he called on the armed mob at the Capitol to overthrow the government to stop the certification of the vote, but it was eventually put down.  In addition, he conned millions of dollars from supporters who believed what they were told.  All this because Trump couldn't face that he lost.  

            This insanity continues.  Half the Republicans running for office are election deniers.  In a few weeks we will see if the majority of the voters are tired of this authoritarian circus.

 

Watch What They Do

                                                                                                          written 9 October 2022

                                                                                                    published 16 October 2022

    

            In the 2 October, 2022 UDJ, one of the letters to the editor was an impassioned plea for folks to vote Republican, because Democrats are "endangering our country".  He says Republicans "want lower taxes, lower fuel prices, smaller government, a safer environment, and judges and prosecutors who abide by the law".  He also claims that Republicans did not take away any abortion rights.

            While this person may believe what he says, I believe Republican extremism is destroying our country.  However, just believing something doesn't make it true.  It is important to look at what people actually do, rather than just what they say.

            The climate crisis is already here, so let's examine Republican actions to create "a safer environment".  For decades, the GOP party line has been that climate change is a hoax, the fiction of greedy scientists, or just natural variations, and therefore nothing to get worried about.  Florida has gone so far as outlawing official use of the terms "climate change" or "sea level rise", despite being one of the most affected states.  If you won't acknowledge the existence of a problem, you will never solve it.

            Hurricane Ian just trashed the center of Florida.  When the federal bill to fund emergency relief came to a vote, all 16 of the Florida Republicans in the House of Representatives voted against the funding, including those representing the most devastated counties.  In the Senate, one Florida Republican voted against the bill and the other Republican didn't bother to show up for the vote.  The bill passed because of Democratic action.

            The Supreme Court, now dominated by extremist Republicans, voted to prohibit the EPA from regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide, the key element driving the climate crisis.  Congressional Democratic action gave that power back to the EPA. 

            "Smaller government and lower taxes" are long standing Republican goals, which primarily help the very wealthy.  By limiting and starving the government, corporations are given freer rein, and their primary goal is increased shareholder returns.  That is why no corporations are rushing funds to help repair Florida.  Reducing regulations allows corporations to make greater profits by polluting the planet, externalizing their costs to the general public.  Republican actions lead to environment degradation.

            Fuel prices are high for three reasons.  One, very few countries have excess oil production for export, and they want to maximize their profits.  Two, oil corporations have monopoly control over refining capacity, and they want to maximize their profits.  Three, all the cheap oil has been discovered, developed, burned, and depleted, leaving only expensive, hard to extract oil reserves, and they are inadequate to meet the growing demand.  None of this is Biden's fault, despite what the Republicans say.  In addition, the more oil we burn, the faster we cook the planet.

            Historically, the Republican party supported the rule of law, but that has been sacrificed to remain in power.  Over time, the Republican Supreme Court has allowed the wealthy to buy elections, rigged the voting districts, and gutted the Voting Rights Act to enable voter discrimination, showing that the rule of law can be subverted for partisan gains.  The "raid" on Mar Lago is a good example.  Trump himself made mishandling of classified documents a felony, but now claims he can declassify by simply thinking it is so.  After months of requests to return documents unlawfully taken from the White House, and legal attestation that everything had been returned, a warranted search found 11,000 more, including over 100 that were classified.  Thwarting the rule of law, Trump found a compliant judge to stall facing the consequences.  This isn't "abiding by the law", but distorting the law for privilege. 

            Finally, we come to the issue of abortion.  For decades the Republicans have worked to outlaw it, finally stacking the Supreme Court with religious zealots to make it happen.  Now that they discover that most of America thinks that is a bad idea, they are running from the consequences.  They not only destroyed women's rights in the states they dominate, they are now lobbying to make the ban universal across the country.  Statements to the contrary are not supported by facts, but are lying hypocrisy.

            The choice this November is indeed very clear.  Decide for yourself.  Look at what people do, not just what they say.  Vote Democratic.  The country you save could be your own.

  

Considering Ian

                                                                                                           written 2 October 2022

                                                                                                       published 9 October 2022

 

            As I am writing this, hurricane Ian is making landfall in South Carolina as a category 1 storm, having recharged in the Atlantic after trashing Florida for two days.  The videos of damage in Florida are distressing.  While the death toll is still relatively low, it is expected to climb as searchers reach more of the destroyed areas.  Millions of folks were without power, and it will take weeks to get it all restored.  Rebuilding roads, bridges and other core infrastructure, will take longer, hindering a return to "normal".  Damage estimates are now as high as $100B, but that is probably just for repairs.  The total losses will be higher, when lost wages and business income are added in.  

            Ian hit as a category 4 storm, with eyewall winds of 155mph, just shy of the 157mph denoting a category 5.  The storm surge was one of the largest on record, inundating relatively flat coastal areas.  The rainfall totals were near record in amount and extent, covering almost the entire state, causing extensive flooding.  The extreme size and power resulted from passing over some of the warmest waters on record, one of the manifestations of climate change.  This was one of the ten largest hurricanes to ever hit the US, the fourth in just the last 5 years.

            It is hard to think about all this.  On the one hand, I feel for all the people affected, but I know that the Republican "leaders" of Florida have outlawed using the phrase "climate change", because they don't believe it is real.  Miami is building expensive sea walls to deal with "persistent sunny day flooding", because "sea level rise" is another prohibited phrase.

            Florida governor DeSantis has been in the news for pushing his extremist Republican agenda in a bid for the presidency in 2024, but now has to deal with a sudden intrusion of reality.  When DeSantis was a Congressman, one of his first votes was to deny federal funding to survivors of hurricane Sandy, which hit blue states.  Now, of course, he is very grateful to have federal aid for his state.  This passes for integrity in the Republican party.

            I am befuddled by the systemic denial I see in our culture.  Conservatives are correct that dealing with the climate crisis demands a complete restructuring of how we do business, which will disrupt the status quo where some people are massively wealthy, while the majority struggles.  I understand they want to preserve their privilege, but how can they deny the reality of a changing world?

            Today I read an interview with Joanna Macy, describing work by Robert Jay Lifton, who coined the term "psychic numbing"; not wanting to look at distressing information.  This led Macy to create what she calls "despair work", because reality doesn't go away if we don't look at it.  It just keeps building until it literally blows down the walls. 

            The Trump presidency, and current Republican policy, bring long standing, unresolved issues to the light of day.  Their crass embracing of misogyny, racism, and corruption encourages people holding those views to come out into the open for all to see.  This is the illusion of separation, believing one race, sex, or economic class, is better than another.  Killing the planet for profit, the core of the climate crisis, is more of the same illusion.  Fortunately, the last two elections showed most Americans reject that perspective, and I expect further rejection this November. 

            While the climate crisis is an external challenge, it is symbolic of this deeper inner work; rising above the illusion of separation.  Embracing reality demands courage and deep internal investigation.  It means we have to look at our fears, not to become obsessed with them, but to hear their story.  By acknowledging the abuses we have inflicted on our planet and others, we begin healing ourselves, opening to the fact that we are all interdependent.  

            Misogyny, racism, and corruption, are cultural and political creations, which can be ignored and preserved by violent domination, even if it distorts the entire society.  The good news is the climate crisis is a conflict with reality, which can't be dominated into submission.  Society has to evolve, and get into harmony with our climate, before everything is swept away.  By learning to love the world, we will also learn to love each other.  It's all connected.

 

 

Renewable California

                                                                                                     written 25 September 2022

                                                                                                       published 2 October 2022

            Two weeks ago, the UDJ printed Dan Walters article questioning if California could build a 100% renewable power economy.   He correctly pointed out that the existing grid is already operating at capacity some of the time, and the plan to decarbonize the entire economy will require two to three times more electricity.  In addition to limited grid infrastructure, our entire transportation fleet will have to be replaced, and all our building heating will have to shift away from fossil fuels.  Because we have delayed dealing with the climate crisis, this will all have to happen as soon as possible, and be completed within 20 years.  He questions if this is affordable, or even possible.  But let's examine what would happen if we don't even try.

            Without rapid decarbonization, the extreme heatwave this summer will soon be viewed as a good year.  Hazardous high temperatures are expected to increase by a factor of ten in the next 30 years.  Rivers in the southwest are at record low levels, threatening 2/3 of the fruit and vegetables produced in the US.  What rain arrives often comes as intense inundations, like the 3" Ukiah received in less than 24 hours.

            So far, large wildfires have been relatively rare this year.  However, fire insurance companies are beginning to pull out of California or raise rates to unaffordable levels.  The State fire insurance system is a last resort, but is not comprehensive or cheap.  As the insurance situation deteriorates, the mortgage system will become precarious.  If a buyer can't get insurance, lenders will be scarce.  Imagine what that will do to property values and the tax base?    

            When fires burn through a community, the local economy takes a hit, even if everyone is able to rebuild, further stressing the economic health of the local governments.  In Paradise, the underground water and sewer systems were affected, requiring massive reinvestment.

            Mendocino county economy is heavily dependent on tourism.  If it is too hot outside, or too smoky, or the water supply is too limited, where is the leisure attraction?

            The wine industry is another significant portion of the county economy.  Mendocino is known for its varietal grapes, which depend on relatively stable microclimates that are now rapidly changing.  At some point all the vines will have to be replanted with different varieties more tolerant to the warming climate, assuming that is possible or economical.  In addition, smoke taint is already a problem.  This destroys the value of the wine and sometimes only shows up long after bottling. 

            Intense inundation, the other side of the climate swing, is just as economically challenging.  While our county terrain has amazing capacity for handling rainfall, as extremes increase, so does the impact.  Area flooding and storm drain failures will increase, as well as debris flow in burned areas and general land movement.  All of this increases the cost of keeping the community functioning.  We are also subject to being completely cut off in a large scale inundation event, such as the 1861 flooding of the Central Valley.  These widespread events have occurred every 150-200 years, but the warming climate increase the likelihood by a factor of three or four.  

            We have little food resilience, and no power resilience in Mendocino county, and are totally dependent on complex technological infrastructures that are many decades old.  These systems were designed for a climate that is no more, and will never return in our lifetime.  Such complex systems can experience cascading collapse when simple things fail.  While we still have time, we must begin planning for our new climate reality.

            Some individuals can afford a degree of personal resilience, but the larger challenge is to think in terms of community resilience, building systems that will endure to support future generations, as well as our own.

            For example, our electrical power system operates on the old paradigm of a few large production centers shipping power to all the consumers over an extensive grid.  This is no longer adequate, either in capacity or resilience.  Building distributed production and storage can maximize the existing interconnection of the grid while increasing local resilience.  Every community needs to begin planning.

            It is estimated that decarbonizing the planet will cost about $23T, which seems daunting.  However, the existing global infrastructure is worth about $700T.  Preserving all that is worth the effort.  Our descendants will thank us.