Considering Time

                                                                                                 written 4 June 2018                                                                                           

                                                                                                 published 9 June 2018

            It is impossible to think, write, or talk, without temporal implication, since our language uses verbs with tense conjugation, assuming a linearity of time flowing from past through the present into the future.

            Philosophers have long grappled with time. Sophists declared time is a concept or a measure.  Parmenides maintained time was an illusion.  The Kabbala considers time a paradox, where the future and past are simultaneously present.  Leibnitz and Kant felt time did not exist in and of itself because we can only know objects as they appear to us.  Modern Presentism holds that only the present is tangible, as past and future are human-mind interpretations of movement.  The illusion of time is a common theme in Buddhism.

            Newton's mechanistic physics describes objective reality as three spatial dimensions, and a separate temporal dimension.  Einstein's physics of relativity consists of four dimensions, one of which is temporal, but different frames of reference have a different axis for time, depending on the relative motion between the frames of reference.  In relativity, time contracts and mass increases approaching the speed of light.  Massless photons, traveling at the speed of light, experience no time, arriving at their destination without duration.  Experience of time is a property of the velocity of the perceiver, and some consider time to be a poorly perceived fourth spatial dimension.  Einstein said "time is nature's way of keeping everything from happening at once".

            Psychological time is known to be flexible compared with the mechanical time of clocks.  A boring event seems to take forever, while enjoyment is over in a flash.  In very intense experiences, time can seem to slow down, allowing detailed perception and response.

            The left brain processes differences and distinctions of sequence, which is fundamental to the concept of linear time.  This seat of the ego keeps track of our life story, giving temporal continuity.  We "remember" the past, and plan for the future based on that past.  The present moment seems no more than an intersection between the past and future, but all action and experience happen in the present moment, which is eternal; past and future are just stories.  Our memory of an experience is limited and filtered, which is why "eye witness" accounts can be so varied.

            Since our "story" is a large part of the ego's structure, it has a stake in preserving the apparent reality of that story.  When we experience a present event, the ego immediately provides an interpretation in terms of stories from the past.  If we aren't careful with our attention, we accept these interpretations as an accurate perception of the moment, and act in response to the past story rather than the actual event.  Thus, the future becomes a consequence of the past, the present is not considered at all, and the ego's story of life feels continuous and whole.

            Our awareness of reality is not limited to the left brain ego story.  The right brain does not interpret experience in the same way, as it processes whole systems, not differences, so the present moment is its natural domain.  One function of mindfulness meditation is training attention to notice when left brain stories are running.  Our culture encourages the primacy of these stories as descriptions of reality, but practice allows one to shift away from automatic engagement with these stories and sit in awareness of the actual moment, uncolored by narration from the past.  Each moment then becomes an opportunity for change.  All action happens in the present, so we begin to evolve an ability to respond to current events, rather than automatically repeating the past, and our future shifts from being determined by the past, to being determined by the present moment. 

            In times of economic and environmental stability, endlessly repeating the past can help society endure.  But when conditions are turbulent and changing, this is a recipe for social collapse, like trying to drive looking only in the rearview mirror.  One doesn't have to look far to see that these are times of change, requiring new responses to old problems.

Price Of Gas

                                                                                                written 27 May, 2018

                                                                                                published 2 Jun 2018

            The price of gasoline is going up.  My standard of reference is Chevron regular, at $3.59/gallon last time I looked.  The increase is caused by global pressures on oil prices, due to physical, economic, and political forces.  Last week the price for benchmark Brent crude oil hit $80/barrel, the first time since 2014.

            The global economic recession after the 2008 crash lowered the demand for oil, but production remained the same, creating a worldwide glut, which depressed prices.  This was good for the consumer, but oil producers were hard hit.  For decades, discovery of new oil has not kept pace with depletion of existing oil fields.  The search for new oil is expensive, and it can take years to develop a new field.  This costs more energy and money because easily accessible oil has been found and, in many cases, already depleted.  The new operations lose money when market prices are low, but loans borrowed to finance the development must still be paid, so production continues.

            Fracking is a tertiary extraction method to get the last drops of oil out of the ground.  It is expensive to drill the wells and pump sand to fracture the rock so oil can be retrieved.  Individual deposits are relatively small and well production drops off within a few years, so new wells must be constantly drilled.  The oil industry claims this can go on for decades, but sceptics point out that current output comes from drilling the productive "sweet" spots, which are now mostly developed.  Heavy investment in fracking generated a boom in US oil production, but at a loss of $250B to date.  Higher oil prices are required to make fracking profitable.

            Few global oil producers make a profit with low oil prices.  Saudi Arabia organized an OPEC production slowdown in 2016, to reduce global oil supply.  This slowdown and growing oil consumption due to increased global economics, depleted the oversupply and oil prices rose.  While higher prices are good for oil producing countries and corporations, they are not good for the global economy.  Oil is a fundamental part of the economy and if it is too expensive, the economy can't function.  Sudden changes in oil pricing can be economically disruptive. 

            By June 2008, the price of oil had doubled to $160/barrel over the previous 18 months.  The US economy was fragile, over extended with massive debt in the subprime housing market, and the rapid increase in oil prices popped the bubble.

            There are similar global conditions today.  A recent column in the UDJ pointed out the precarious condition of the Argentine economy.  The global economy is connected, so a collapse in one place affects the whole world.  Real estate prices in the US are approaching pre-crash levels, almost doubling in the last 6 years, while wages are stagnant, and there is increasing debt in sub-prime auto loans.  The Chinese economy was booming in 2008, which helped the global economy recover, but China is growing more slowly today.  In 2008, the Fed lowered interest rates and threw trillions of dollars into the economy to prevent a depression.  Interest rates today are already low, and the national debt is more than twice as large, so the options are reduced.

            2018 global oil consumption is 99 million barrels/day.  With little stored supply, the market is tight, and reduction in production due to geopolitics, can cause abrupt increases in prices.  The decline of the Venezuelan economy has reduced their oil production by half, with risk of a compete production collapse.  The US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear treaty and re-imposition of economic sanctions, will reduce Iranian production.  Moving the US embassy to Jerusalem further inflamed tension in the area.  The threat of an Israeli/Iranian war is a real concern, which would likely reduce production in the entire region.  Any of these situations could cause a sudden reduction in oil supply, causing a sharp rise in prices, and renewed economic upheaval.

            We are stuck with the fact that oil prices the consumers can afford are too low for oil producers to make a profit, and prices that profit the oil industry are too high for our debt-ridden economy to carry.

Awakening The Dreamer

                                                                                                written 19 May, 2018

                                                                                                published 26 May 18

            On Saturday, June 2nd, the Ukiah United Methodist Church and the Climate Action Group of Ukiah, will host a Pachamama Alliance Symposium, called "Awakening The Dreamer".  The event is free and will be held at the Methodist Church, 270 N. Pine St., Ukiah, beginning at noon until 4pm.

            The Pachamama Alliance website provides information about their origins.  Pachamama is the Incan Mother Earth goddess.  The Alliance began with the Achuar people who have lived for millennia on the borders of modern-day Ecuador and Peru.  In the mid 20th century, corporations began exploiting the Amazon Basin for its oil, unmoved by the irreplaceable ecological and cultural wealth.  By the early 1990s, Achuar shamans and elders were having dreams of imminent threat to their land and way of life.  From contact with neighboring tribes, they knew that oil companies were poisoning the rainforest, steadily moving closer to their home.

            The Achuar were influenced by an ancient prophecy shared by many Andean and Amazonian indigenous cultures about the Eagle and the Condor.  According to the prophecy, this is a moment in history when the Eagle (representing intellect and the mind) and the Condor (representing wisdom and the heart) must come together to ensure the survival of humankind.  Emboldened by this prophecy and the threat to their very existence, they decided to reach out to the modern world.

            In 1995, the Achuar leaders invited a group of North Americans to travel to visit the rainforest, and shared with this group the urgent threat to their lands and culture, as well as their vision for self-determination.  They requested cooperation to help "change the dream" of the modern world.  This change requires shifting from a culture of consumption to a culture that honors and sustains life.  A partnership was begun and the Pachamama Alliance was founded to carry out the commitment.

            Since 1997 the Alliance has worked in Ecuador's Amazon, defending the rights and homeland of the Achuar, who are committed to maintaining their stewardship of the rainforest, preserving this invaluable resource on behalf of all life.  Legal and technical expertise strengthened indigenous self-governance and preserved their lands and cultures, including mapping, land titling, and sustainable economic development.  This allowed the Achuar to gain full title to nearly 1.8 million acres of rainforest.  Based on this success, work expanded to other indigenous groups in Ecuador, Peru, Colombia, Brazil and Bolivia, continuing to innovate education and advocacy initiatives.  More than 60 million acres of the Amazon Basin are now in permanent protection.

            With its wealth of natural resources, including minerals, metals, lumber and oil, Ecuador had been a lucrative colony since at least the mid-16th century.  When the Pachamama Alliance was founded, Ecuador was still not completely in control of its own resources.  International Monetary Fund and World Bank policies kept Ecuador in a debt cycle, for the benefit of industrialized countries.  In the face of these global economic and political pressures, halting individual projects is insufficient.  To fulfill the commitment to the Achuar and get to the root of the problem, the cultural story behind these policies must change. 

            The globalized economy consumes the planet for profit while driving species to extinction, perhaps even our own.  Religions preach hate in the name of God and justify wars.  Political systems impoverish millions to enrich a few.  The common factor is an assumption of separation between everyone and everything, and this cultural story drives the nightmare dream we currently inhabit.  

            Buddhist Thich Nhat Hanh says "we are here to awaken from the illusion of separation", for the world is whole, and our fates are connected.  The picture of the Earth, taken from space, is the most widely reproduced image in history, calling to our deep awareness of connection 

            In 2005, after years of investigating how to effect a change of story, the Alliance launched a suite of learning workshops called "Awakening The Dreamer", sharing the values of ancient wisdom in addressing our modern crises and our personal role in bringing forth an environmentally sustainable, spiritually fulfilling, and socially just human presence on this planet.

            Please join us on Saturday, June 2nd, at noon.