written 27 April, 2025
published 4 May, 2025
Humans have Neolithic bodies, developed over millennium, oriented to respond quickly to immediate physical threats. This flight/fight capacity ramps up rapidly, allowing appropriate response in the moment, slowly returning to "normal" after the crisis passes. Therefore, we are ill prepared for slow, long term changes. This is like the frog, that immediately hops out of boiling water, but will cook to death if put in cool water that then heats to boiling.
One of the challenges to motivating people about the climate crisis is the immediate dangers seem minimal to non-existent. Sea levels are slowly rising each year. The general cautious consensus is "only" one meter rise in the next 75 year, averaging out to about 1/2" this year, which seems like almost nothing. In the last 150 years, the Earth has warmed by less than 3°F, which is smaller than the variation between the normal body temperatures of different humans. That seems tiny, and the changes are slow, making it very easy to disregard.
The linear assumption that tomorrow will be pretty much like yesterday is, for the most part, true. Our investment economy is based on this assumption, and everything tends to follow from that. However, the natural world is non-linear, where even very small changes can have immense consequences, shifting from one stable condition to a radically different one in a heartbeat. Consider an earthquake, or a volcanic eruption, sometimes centuries in the making, changing the landscape in minutes.
An effective climate solution has been identified: complete economic decarbonization (no longer adding to the problem) and massive carbon sequestration (returning to a climate habitable by humans). But this demands radical change to our entire energy system, involving extensive rebuilding and massive investments. That threatens our highly stratified economy, which has resulted in the well-funded climate denial industry. Denying the problem even exists is now Federal "wisdom", and an emerging backup narrative is that climate "solutions" don't really work anyway.
But reality doesn't care what foolishness we believe, and scientific climate research continues, even if the US is no longer a relevant leader. China is becoming the renewable powerhouse, producing affordable solar cells and electric vehicles for the world.
While a succession of 500 year floods, megafires, or a decade of drought can destroy a regional economy, human structures can change rapidly as well. Our economy is very fragile, highly leveraged, which means stability is based on the continuity of existing conditions and assumptions. When any of that changes, even a little, the entire structure can collapse.
Currently, a key economic weakness is the insurance industry, a "canary in the coal mine". The recent changes in flood and fire hazard zones are disturbing. For instance, in Ukiah, everything west of Dora Street is now in the Moderate to Very High fire hazard zone. This reflects new information gathered from a decade of fire storms, showing strong impact dependent on wind conditions. This is the new reality, yet our entire civilization was built on a different set of environmental assumptions, now increasingly irrelevant.
Insurance companies literally can't afford to ignore reality, when losses exceed premium income. In February, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said "insurance companies and banks are already pulling out of coastal areas and areas where there are a lot of fires. In 10 or 15 years there are going to be regions of the country where you can’t get a mortgage.” This threatens the foundation of the financial sector.
There are three options going forward: status quo, triage, or resilience.
Status quo (high climate breakdown and low adaptation) is the current Federal approach, which focuses exclusively on maintaining existing short term profit structures. Increasing disasters will create a chaotic exit of insurers from affected areas, leaving customers and local governments stranded and abandoned, eventually leading to states going insolvent.
Triage (high climate breakdown and high adaptation) assumes continued governmental denial, but some regions begin to adapt and "ruggedize", making survivability more possible in those areas.
Resilience (medium climate breakdown and high adaptation) assumes the insurance industry becomes an advocate for effectively addressing the climate problem, through managed retreat and climate adaptive policies at all levels.
Insurance companies already see the problem reflected in their bottom line, unlike the fossil fuel industry. Choosing to build resilience sooner increases what we can preserve. The best time was decades ago, but the next best time is today, while we still have options.