Stories

                                                                                         written 22 January 2023

                                                                                     published 29 January 2023

            Let me tell you three stories about stories.

            I heard an awakened man say: "There are only two things that are absolutely true: I am, and something is happening.  Everything else is just stories."

            Dr. Gabor Maté, a specialist in treating traumatized individuals, said: "An individual can be traumatized by something that happened, or by something needed, that didn't happen.  The reaction to the trauma is to armor up, cutting off access to the authentic self.  However, what endures is not the traumatic event, but the story we make up about our self, subsequent to the event.  This can be changed."  As many as 90 percent of us have been traumatized.

            I recently read: "People are easier to fool than to convince they have been fooled."  

            The stories we tell ourselves are powerful, even if they cause us harm!  If a story is similar to something we already believe, we will likely believe that, as well.  After becoming part of a story with which we identify, we tend to defend against any information to change our mind, as an assault on our being.

            The insidious part is core stories are laid down long before we develop a rational perspective to evaluate what we are being told.  They are lodged deep in our subconscious, running all the time.  Think about how difficult it is to create positive habits.  If you have been told as a kid that you are bad, ugly, stupid, guilty or the world is out to get you (pick from the long list), how frequently will you have to look in the mirror, making positive affirmations, before you begin to believe differently?  This depressing state of affairs explains a lot of what goes on in the world, and indicates how difficult change will be.  But it still astounds me that people believe some of the things they do.  

            As a life-long rational, scientifically oriented, socialist democratic, progressive, mystic, I am still gob smacked by what passes as the current Republican Party.  In a world heavily affected and dependent on scientific technology, how can they be so rabidly anti-scientific?  Inspired by Trump's manifest limitations, the GOP is against vaccines, ignoring that 7 GOP seniors die every day for every 4 Democratic seniors, further reducing their voter base.  

            Since Trump can't admit losing, a vast number of Republicans believe his lie the election was stolen from him, even though other Republicans won in the same election.  Despite numerous lost law suits, and confirmation by Republican authorities the election was fair, they are willing to destroy the country to "make things right".  The only explanation is these folks feel cheated by life, opening them to believing the false story Trump also feels cheated.

            People tend to believe stories that enhances their short-term income.  It was recently verified that Exxon-Mobile accurately predicted our growing climate crisis half a century ago, and realized addressing it would cost then trillions.  Instead, they chose to cancel further research and funded climate denial.  Thus, the GOP, heavily dependent on fossil fuel campaign contributions, denies the reality of the climate crisis: truly suicidal politics.  Recently Wyoming opposed shifting to electric vehicles to preserve their oil and gas income.  As a result of massive lobbying by the fossil fuel industry, Ohio declared propane and natural gas as "green energy", ignoring that natural gas is 80 times more potent as a greenhouse gas over the first 20 years. 

            People believe lies from a "trusted" source.  Fox News required employee Covid vaccinations, but railed against them on air, making billions in profit.  Further, Fox News claimed Dominion voting machine "stole the election" by switched votes.  In the current $1.6B defamation case against Fox, Dominion lawyers found Fox on-air talent knew this was a lie.

            After decades of Republicans telling the story that "government is the problem", they are now proving that Republican government IS the problem!  The only question is, how bad does it have to get?  I am still optimistic.  

            These days, old stories are coming to the surface to be healed and released.  We are immersed in the very old conflict story between the individual and the collective.  However, reality is connected, and those who deny that eventually stub their toe, or run out of breath.  In the meantime, we all must look to see what "we know for certain, that just isn't so".

 

 

Gender

                                                                                         written 15 January 2023

                                                                                     published 22 January 2023

  

            Several decades ago, in a Comparative Religions course, it was presented that the three major western religions, Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, were related as follows.  Judaism was one of the first religions to embrace a unity God, but the focus on the Torah tended to separate the individual from the divine.  Christ brought a New Testament, but eventually the focus on the Bible tended to separate the individual from the divine.  The Islamic Koran repeated the message that everything is divine, but the Shia/Sunni struggle for power again separated the individual from the divine.  While this is a simplification, the fundamentalist of all three religions have diverged from the original spiritual intent with inappropriate, and oppressive focus on their specific stories.  

            All three stories have a similar structure in that they assume the individual arises from the divine, manifests a human existence, and then returns to the divine, with certain limitations.  Basically, a "one and done" story.  This is another simplification, but expresses the fundamentalist view.  

            However, a significant portion of the world believes in reincarnation, the idea that, while the source of an individual soul is divine, we have a series of human incarnation intervals, allowing for an evolution.  Life is a school, where lessons are presented and perhaps learned, with strengths and weaknesses passed along for further edification.  At least 20 percent of organized global religions adhere to this idea, and many more individuals of every tradition believe this; almost a quarter of Americans, including Christians.  Any religious orthodoxy we have been taught might be incomplete, or modified for secular reasons, therefore reincarnation should be considered.

            Aldous Huxley did a survey of all the spiritual traditions on the planet, looking for common themes.  In addition to variations of the Golden Rule, he found the goal of humanity is the evolution from the individual ego to the direct experience of the divine unity.

            Our species is making some progress toward experiencing that fundamental unity.  For example, there was a time when almost every society accepted human slavery as part of the economy, and that is no longer so.  Over the last 200 years, women are now allowed to vote everywhere (except Vatican City).  Quantum physics understands matter, and perhaps consciousness, are connected non-locally.  Our economy is global, engaging every country.  Affordable cell phones appeared about 30 years ago, and 86 percent of the world is now connected.  The climate crisis unifies us with global impact, even upon those who deny it.  

            While these are mostly material forms of universal connectedness, they are indicative of a fundamental shift toward extending accord to the other (the core of the Golden Rule).  The stories we believe shape our experience of the world.  However, only 10 percent of our actions are controlled by our reasoning consciousness, which only fully manifests by age 7.  Everything else is controlled by our subconscious.

            Let's add consideration of reincarnation, and examine the emerging gender issue.  Assume for a moment, that we have all been here many times before, as both men and women.  Perhaps, as our species evolves, we are experiencing a thinning of the barrier between lives.  Studies show that children who remember previous lives tend to be younger than 7, when the inclinations of previous lives may be most influential, before the reality of this life prevails. 

            Perhaps lesbian women have been men multiple times before, and now still love women, yet know they are strong, assertive, and capable people.  Perhaps gay men have been women many times before, and now still love men and know that life is richer when compassion, emotions, and sensitivity are felt.  Perhaps people who identify as nonbinary are aware of having been both men and women so many times that they feel no need to choose.  This is not an attempt to stereotype, but just a perspective to consider.  

            The people who have problems with such "out of the ordinary" behavior, tend to justify their outrage on moral or religious grounds.  But this is a reversion to very old doctrine, which is generally at odds with the Golden Rule found in every tradition.  The real challenge here is living the spirit of the tradition rather than the dogma.  We see what pain and suffering dogma have inflicted on our species.  Perhaps it is time to live the spirit, and really Love Our Neighbor, without qualification.

 

Net Metering

                                                                                           written 8 January 2023

                                                                                     published 15 January 2023

     

            In 1975, solar panels cost about $100/watt, and grid tied residential usage was extremely limited.  But peak oil in the US, and the rise of OPEC, stimulated increased popularity of such systems.  When excess electricity was produced, the power was pushed back onto the grid, spinning the meter backward, allowing homeowners to "store" their excess power on the grid.  But in reality, nothing was stored, only credited, as all electricity is used in the moment it is created.  Utilities began demanding a more formalized relationship, and Net Energy Metering (NEM) regulations were eventually established.

            California introducing NEM 1.0 in 1996.  Solar panel cost had dropped to about $7.50/watt, but solar still provided virtually no significant power to the grid.  The goal was to stimulate solar growth with credit of $0.25 per kilowatt-hour for selling excess energy back to the grid.  Total amount of net metered solar was capped at a modest level in each utility districts.   

            Plenty of sunshine, high electricity rates, and favorable net metering policies helped California become one of the nation’s leading solar markets.  By 2017, solar panel prices had plummeted to $0.75/watt, and solar, producing about 1 percent of the national electricity, was growing in popularity and recognized as a reliable energy source throughout the world.  In addition, the three California investor-owned utilities hit their net metering “cap” between 2016 and 2017. 

            This prompted the California Public Utilities Commission to create NEM 2.0, their next generation net metering regulations.  The rate paid for excess electricity was about the same, maintaining the major benefit of allowing customers to sell electricity back to the grid at retail rates.  Industry caps were removed, but some fees were increased and all solar customers transitioned to time-of-use rates, reflecting that variations in power availability affects real prices.  In Ukiah, the real cost of power the City pays can vary by more than a factor of 5 over the course of the day, with evenings being much more expensive than the middle of the day.  Although NEM 2.0 was less beneficial compared to its predecessor, it still focused primarily on the fiscal value of solar and treated "credit" as "storage".

            Today, solar production is increasingly rapidly.  Panels cost $0.31/watt.  Solar produces almost 3 percent of our electricity, and is expected to grow by 60 percent in 2023 alone.  While corporate utilities are still trying to curtain solar, we have bigger problems.  

            Regionally, all solar produces at about the same time, increasingly stressing the grid during peak production.  Increased consumption occasionally saturates the grid capacity, and addressing the climate crisis demands a huge increase in electric consumption.  Further, there was still no recognition that excess power is not really being "stored".  In December 2022, the California Public Utility Commission released the new NEM 3.0 policy, which shifts thinking about solar from fiscal gain to providing power as needed.  

            Excess power from existing solar systems will be paid at the rates in place when they were installed, but the new policy applies to systems installed after April, 2023.  All power consumed onsite will be free, but excess power pushed onto the grid will be credited at a reduced rate of "avoided costs", plus a small margin, reflecting the actual wholesale value of the power when it is sold to the grid, like any other power producer.  There are no monthly connection fees.  All this reflects the increased maturity of solar power, acknowledges the load limitations of the grid, and stimulates the goal of increasing the installation of distributed storage.

             Solar systems are fixed costs, producing power for at least 25 years, and more likely 50 years, some of the least expensive power installed today.  As we shift to collecting power when it is available, rather than when we want it, we have to recognize the value of the power changes over time with availability, and the midday solar production peak is some of the least valuable of the day.  By adding battery storage to any solar system, this cheap power can be stored and consumed later instead of more expensive power, or sold into the market reaping the increased value.  While the payback period for a solar-plus-storage system may still be longer under NEM 3.0 than it is under NEM 2.0, it’ll be better than if you install solar alone, and your system will be more versatile and robust. 

Considering 2022

                                                                                                              written 1 January 2023

                                                                                                          published 8 January 2023

  

            To start the New Year on a positive note, here is energy information excerpted from "Good News Stories You Probably Didn't Hear About in 2022" (https://futurecrunch.com/goodnews2022/?ref=future-crunch-newsletter).

            The invasion of Ukraine turned clean energy into a national security issue.  Nineteen European countries accelerated decarbonization plans.  Nine North Sea countries announced increases in offshore wind deployment.  The continent cut its demand for gas by a quarter, and increased its clean energy target to 82 percent by 2030.

            Germany agreed to spend $180 billion by 2026 to accelerate the clean economy shift.  Czechia will phase out coal five years sooner than previously planned.  Slovenia will stop using coal for electricity by 2033.  Romania will phase out coal by 2030.  The $11 billion Nord Stream 2 project went bankrupt. 

            China passed regulations forcing all their coal plants to compete with renewables by 2025.  Chinese coal consumption fell for 12 straight months between June 2021 and June 2022.  New coal projects outside China became effectively uninsurable.  The global pipeline of new coal capacity collapsed.  The US coal surge ended before it started, and the European surge turned out to be an illusion.

            China tightened its environmental regulations, placing a ban on new industrial projects in polluted areas.  China revealed plans for 100 GW of battery storage and 120 GW of pumped hydro by 2030, and installed 140 GW of wind and solar (more than the entire world in 2020), with plans to build a US-sized amount of clean energy every year until 2025.  

            The global solar industry produced 295 GW of panels, a 45 percent year-on-year increase, and now expects annual sales of 940 GW of solar by 2025.  That's 5.8 percent of total global electricity demand, every year, or the equivalent of the world’s entire fleet of 438 nuclear plants every 20 months.

            The financial community is beginning to realize a dead plant is bad for business.  Munich Re, Swiss Re, and Allianz, three of the world's largest fossil fuel reinsurers, announced oil and gas exits.  Korean Re, Asia’s second-largest reinsurance company, will no longer provide reinsurance for new coal mining or power plant construction.  HSBC (Europe’s biggest bank), Nordea (the biggest Nordic bank), Credit Agricole (the largest retail lender in France), Lloyds (the UK's largest bank), MAPFRE (the largest non-life insurer in Latin America), and Japan's three largest banks, all announced they will no longer provide financing for new oil and gas fields or new thermal coal mining.

            The US Senate passed its first ever comprehensive climate spending bill and an international climate treaty so powerful it could avert nearly 1°F of global warming.  Analysts are predicting 'staggering' amounts of clean energy deployment, as wind, solar and batteries now account for over 95 percent of new capacity in US interconnection queues.  California passed its most comprehensive climate change legislation, with $54 billion in climate and energy spending, new restrictions on oil and gas drilling, and a mandate to stop adding atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2045.  US households installed record amounts of rooftop solar.  Utilities finally stopped trying to slow down the energy transition and started spending money on transmission.  Wind, sun and water generated more electricity than either coal or nuclear. 

            In China, the largest car market in the world, almost 30 percent of new vehicles sold were fully electric, up from 13 percent in 2021 and just 5 percent in 2020.  At this pace, pure battery electric vehicles will be a third of China’s new car market by next year.  Global electric vehicle sales grew from 6.6 million to 10 million, and spending worldwide exceeded $450 billion.  Lawmakers in Europe banned internal combustion engines in all new cars and vans by 2035, as did Canada, California, and New York.   Hyundai closed its combustion engine development division. Nissan ended combustion engine development in all markets except the US.  Chrysler will stop combustion engine powered vehicle production by 2028.  Buick will only sell electric vehicles by 2030.  Porsche reported that its all-electric Porsche Taycan is now outselling the 911.

            Global battery manufacturing capacity increased 38 percent, batteries last longer than predicted, and more recycling capacity came online than there was battery scrap available.  Battery factories worth $25.7 billion are now in the works in the US, mostly in red states.  

            This is not nearly enough, and the outcome is not guaranteed, but the climate fight is beginning to work.