Nuclear (Again!)

                                                                                                     written 18 September 2022

                                                                                                 published 25 September 2022

                                                          

            The climate crisis recently delivered record breaking heat, threatening the California electricity grid, creating official panic after decades of denial.  One manifestation was the sudden, last minute extension of the operating permit for the Diablo Canyon nuclear complex.

            A recent UDJ editorial described nuclear power as renewable (false), although the actual electricity produced is non carbon.  However, a whole life assessment shows a nuclear plant releases as much carbon as a natural gas peaker plant, when considering the energy used in mining and enriching the uranium, the production of concrete and steel, and the construction of the plant.  That doesn't include the carbon released in decommissioning a large plant (never been done yet), nor the centuries of high level nuclear waste disposal (also never been done yet).

            Nuclear energy is the most expensive electricity on the market today, part of why the industry is declining.  The Diablo Canyon facility has two 1100MW, Westinghouse reactors, each contains 4500 tons of enriched uranium.  When uranium fissions (splits), energy is released and fission byproducts are created.  These byproducts degrade the energy efficiency of the fuel, requiring fuel replacement after five years, even though only 5 percent of the uranium has been consumed.  Enriched uranium has low levels of radiation, but once the fuel contains fission byproducts, the radiation levels are dangerously high, with the potential to kill a human within minutes.  With no disposal site available, this "spent" fuel is stored on site, with 43,000 tons now at the Diablo Canyon facility.  Nuclear power is not only expensive, it has serious consequences if anything fails.  The nuclear industry assures us they have it "all under control", but reality differs.

            The Fukushima nuclear complex had six General Electric reactors go online in 1971.  The 2011 quake generated a 30' high tsunami, which flooded the emergency cooling pumps, leading to reactor cores melting, with subsequent hydrogen explosions, in the three units operating at the time.  While the wind was blowing mostly offshore to the east, highly radioactive contamination was detected 150 miles south in Tokyo.  The full extent of the reactor damages are still unknown, but repair costs are expected to exceed $1T.

            Design for the Diablo Canyon reactor complex began in 1965, with construction beginning in 1968.  It was known that the San Andreas fault was 45 miles to the east, but in 1969 the Hosgri fault was discovered 2.5 miles to the west, requiring plant redesign. 

The units went online in 1985, with final costs increasing from $376M to $5.5B.  In 2008 the Shoreline fault was discovered less than a mile to the west.  The National Regulatory Commission, with the contradictory goals of both regulating nuclear power and promoting it, voted 3-2 that the design was "good enough".  In 2015, the Diablo Cove fault was discovered, which runs directly under the foundation of the facility.   

            Normal reactor design life is about 40 years, and PG&E had been planning to shutdown in 2025, due to failing economics and expensive upgrades required because intense radiation makes metal brittle and weak.  In addition, the wrong welding rod was used during construction, further increasing risk of embrittlement.  A recent UDJ article argued that the expected seismic movements on the various known faults were adequately calculated in the plant design, but there is no public assessment of how the reactors have been degraded by embrittlement.  PG&E says their reactor embrittlement report is "proprietary", even though a seismic or thermal shock could cause massive failure.  San Francisco is 240 miles north, Los Angeles is 150 miles south, and Central Valley agriculture is 100 miles east.  As a long standing gift to the nuclear industry, no insurance written covers losses due to nuclear contamination.  None!   

            The recent 5 year extension agreement provides an initial $1.4B payment, with an open check for further upgrades, paid for by all California ratepayers, with all work exempt from California Environmental Quality Act.

            We are being asked to choose between killing the planet with carbon or risking wide spread nuclear contamination from an aging, compromised reactor.  We can choose "none of the above".  The recent threat to the grid was avoided by timely reduction of demand.  Like cranky infants, we want electricity whenever we want it.  Perhaps we can learn to live within our power income, living more modestly when required, while we create a safe, sustainable power system.

 

 

 

Awakened Activism

                                                                                                     written 11 September 2022

                                                                                                 published 18 September 2022

 

            Humanity is in the midst of an evolution of consciousness, emerging from the illusion of separation, awakening to unity reality.  The climate crisis demands a unity response.

            As climate destruction breaks new records, climate action is hindered primarily not by deniers and skeptics, but by business and political "leaders" who support only incremental solutions, saying we can’t move too quickly lest we disrupt the economic order.  But as Swami Beyondananda says: "With no livable Earth, there is no GDP."  Decades of corporate greed wasted the opportunity for gradual change.  Avoiding collapse now requires radical change and radical thinking, with new forms of activism.  

            Patricia Pearce, in her 24 August 2022 WE Awakening podcast, describes old school activism as a type of toxic energy, using domination and violence in the streets to accomplish ends.  An awakened activism needs to be visionary, speaking to the heart, presenting what is possible, inspiring each person to unifying their temporal and eternal parts. She presents the image, "when chopping wood, aim for the chopping block, not the firewood."  Clara Vondrich, published in Resilience, 25 August 2022, describes the aim as "quantum social change".

            "This [r]evolutionary new academic discipline, pioneered by social scientist Karen O’Brien, PhD, panpsychologist Zhiwa Woodbury, science journalist Lynn McTaggart, and others, suggests that the mind-bending principles that describe the subatomic world are also relevant to our daily lives.  Just as quantum physics disrupted our view of matter and energy, smashing the Newtonian paradigm of a fixed physical reality, quantum social change disrupts our beliefs about what’s possible, how fast, and by whom.  Albert Einstein said: We cannot solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them."

            The world of quantum mechanics demonstrates Entanglement and Non-locality, Complementarity, Potentiality and Indeterminacy. 

            Entanglement occurs when a group interacts in such a way that they become interconnected, even when separated by a large distance.  Non-locality means this interconnection transcends space/time.  It has been demonstrated that not only is matter non-local, but consciousness is as well. 

            However, unfettered individualism, rooted in the illusion of separation, is behind the destruction of human rights, the rise of domination autocracy, the decimation of Indigenous cultures, and the unrestrained plundering of the natural world.  In contrast, community and connection are proven to insulate us from stress, give our lives meaning and allow us to be part of something “bigger.”  The more entangled we are, the better we seem to do.

            For example, the divestment movement to pull money out of coal, oil, and gas started slowly in 2012.  Ten years later, 1,500 institutions have divested assets exceeding $40 trillion.  Once the idea was planted, campaigns popped up simultaneously all over the world.  What we do has far-flung, unseen, and unexpected consequences.  The connective quality of computer technology, totally dependent on quantum hardware, is a great demonstration of non-locality today.

            Complementarity holds that objects behave as either particles or waves, depending on how they are observed.  As humans, we each exist as both individuals and as cells in the meta-organism that is Gaia.  This means that we all have agency to join in and help power social movements.  When complementarity is nurtured, “I” becomes “we” and our capacity for change grows exponentially.

            Quantum potentiality, different from classical probability, means many possible outcomes all exist simultaneously.  Indeterminacy means nothing is fixed.  Nothing is predictable.  A higher order can quite suddenly emerge from apparent chaos.  A radical shift from our current trajectory is always possible.  In a chaotic world, the right catalyst creates unpredictable outcomes, and quantum leaps (non-linear changes) are possible when people and movements embrace potentiality and the hope it can bring.  

            With a naive understanding of space/time, our ignorant arrogance is killing the planet for the profit of a few.  The climate crisis demands our awakening to the infinite possibilities of our quantum paradigm; the unstoppable power of individuals within a collective.  As we allow ourselves to experience this quantum reality, awakening from the Newtonian delusion of separate "self", we help shift our society toward manifesting the deeper unity.  We all have this power, because we arise out of this unity.  When a bubble pops, the surface thins, and then ruptures at a single spot, which propagates throughout the entire structure.  Every moment of individual practice of unity awareness is an active force toward thinning the illusion of separation.  This is awakened activism.

 

 

Flooding

                                                                                                      written 4 September 2022

                                                                                                published 11 September 2022

 

            One of the consequences of the disrupted climate is wild swings in the weather.  For example, this summer, Dallas, Texas has been suffering from heat and drought conditions that have threatened the integrity of their electric grid.  Wildfires burned through a Dallas suburb a month ago, destroying 15 homes.  Two weeks later, that same area was flooded when a record breaking 15" of rain fell in 24 hours.  Such massive rainfall is considered a 1,000 year event, but was intensely localized, with only 2" falling just 25 miles away.  Roads turned into rivers, a State of Emergency was declared, hundreds of flights were cancelled, and one person died. 

            A similar 1,000 year flood hit Jackson, the capitol of Mississippi, population 153,000.  In August, almost 13" fell in four days, about three time their normal monthly rainfall.  Decades of structural racism had underfunded the city, causing decaying infrastructure, with 40 percent of treated water lost due to broken pipes and inefficient equipment.  Consequently, the sudden influx of rainwater adversely impacted the city's water treatment plant, slowing down water production at the plant to the point of collapse.  Throughout the entire city, there is now insufficient water volume, or quality, to fight fires, flush toilets, drink, cook or bathe.  What city water is available must be boiled before use.

            But flooding this August was not limited to the United States, and the worst has been in Pakistan, population 230 million.  Since June, it has been raining for over 3 months, and monsoon storms have occurred twice as often as usual, delivering 5 times as much rain.  This was on top of a record breaking heat wave from March to June, hitting 124°F at times, which caused massive glacier melt in the northern part of the country.  The monsoon inundation caused many of the glacial melt lakes to burst their bounds, adding to the downstream disaster. 

            All of Pakistan is affected, but the south and northwest were hit the hardest.  One third of the country is now flooded, displacing 33 million people, leaving 20 million homeless, with 1,200 dead so far.  In the northwestern mountainous region, roads, bridges, and building have been destroyed, as raging rivers flowed through normal city streets.  The southern portion is now a flooded lake, destroying the agricultural output of the country, which used to export rice, wheat, and sugar.  

            This flooding, the largest in living memory, is expected to cost more than $10B.  Already a poor country, Pakistan is now dealing with not only the massive infrastructure destruction but a huge population that has lost everything, with no food, shelter, or potable water.  The flood waters are contaminated with raw sewage and chemicals, insect populations have exploded, and water borne diseases are spreading rapidly.

            This kind of inundation is referred to as an "atmospheric river".  The warming atmosphere and oceans increase the volume of water carried in these systems.  A recent study from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography indicates that flooding damages from these events now cost more than $1B per year in the 11 western American states.  Lead author Tom Corringham said, “The threat of a megaflood in the western United States is very real.  As atmospheric rivers become more intense, flood damages are on track to triple by the end of the century, but the impacts will be felt sooner."  

            The California counties identified most at risk of increased flood damages are Sonoma, Yuba, Sacramento, and Los Angeles.  Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could reduce damages, as would investment in floodplain restoration and flood-managed aquifer recharge.  The researchers project that, if no action is taken, expected atmospheric river related flood damages will increase by 10 percent each decade until the 2050s, rising more steeply as the century progresses.

            But the damage could be much larger.  In 1861, it rained in California for 43 days, flooding more than 3/4 of the California Central Valley, taking 6 months to drain away.  This was the first such event since the Europeans had arrived, but subsequent research has shown they happen every 150-200 years.  Climate change will make things worse.

            It's hard for humans to consider low probability, high risk future events such as the adverse impacts of climate change, and our economy is oriented toward short term benefits.  Although we can now see the problem, are we wise enough to make the effort?

 

 

Heat And Drought

                                                                                                         written 28 August 2022

                                                                                                  published 4 September 2022

     

            So far this summer, we in California have been fortunate, with none of the massive fires that have defined "summer" for the last half decade.  However, heat and drought have hit extremes all over the planet, affecting not only the US, but Europe and China.

            The decline of the Colorado River leaves Lake Mead and Lake Powell at 25 percent of capacity, affecting water supplies for over 40 million people.  Since 80 percent of the water goes to agriculture, this will affect food production. The Northeast had a "flash drought", very intense and destructive regional heating.

            Heat in Texas has stressed their electrical system to the point of rolling cutbacks to preserve grid integrity.  The Austin area had over 35 days of triple digit heat, with lows above 88°.  Throughout the mid-west, crops are dying in the fields, and livestock is being culled due to lack of water and feed.  Hydroelectric production is reduced and thermal power plants are affected by lack of water for steam production.  

            In Europe, heatwaves are hitting countries like England, which rarely experience such heat and don't have widespread air conditioning.  Major rivers in France, Germany, and Italy are so low that barge transportation is severely curtailed, and nuclear power plants have to shut down due to lack of cooling water.  Salt water intrusion up river is killing fish populations.

            China is having such a widespread heat and drought that large portions of their manufacturing infrastructure have shut down due to lack of water, depressing the global economy, and crop losses are beginning to threaten Chinese food security.

            Despite what climate deniers want you to believe, the climate crisis is already here.  More distressing, there is a decade long time lag between when carbon dioxide is injected into the atmosphere and when the temperature reflects that increase.  Half the carbon dioxide humans have emitted during the industrial revolution has come in just the last 30 years.  That means we are already committed to another 15 percent increase in warming, and every year we continue to add even more carbon dioxide.  As one climate researcher put it, "this isn't just the hottest year to date, but is the coolest year for the rest of your life." 

            Sarah Trent, wrote the following in the 25 August, 2022 High Country News; 

"Climate change is causing overnight lows to rise at a faster clip than daytime highs.  Human mortality rates will rise, because people don’t sleep as well in heat and their bodies are less able to recover from daytime heat stress."

            "Staple crop yields will shrink: rice, corn and wheat yields will all drop by 5 percent to 40 percent because plants, like people and animals, require a state of rest at night.  Fruit, vegetables and wine will change, because many require cool nights to develop the qualities and flavors people like."

            "Invasive species will continue to expand northward, because the coldest winter temperatures won’t kill as many of them.  Even more salmon and trout will die, because night temperatures play an outsized role in keeping rivers cool.  Wildfires will get harder to fight, because nighttime fire activity is on the rise."

            Weather and health experts are beginning to categorize heat waves, making it possible to warn people in advance.  A tentative system has been implemented in Spain, after their heat experience this summer.  Category 0: High temperatures: health risk for vulnerable communities.  Category 1: Very high temperatures: avoid prolonged exposure to heat, inform vulnerable community members.  Category 2: Exceptionally high temperature: health risks, take precautions, prepare to help most vulnerable.  Category 3: Extreme temperatures: major health risk, take maximum precautions.  The specifics will vary by location, based not only on temperature, but also humidity.  A recent Harvard report indicated lethal heat days will increase by a factor of ten in the next 30 years, making working outdoors more difficult, particularly in the tropics.

            The coal mine canaries are all dead, and alarms have been ringing for decades, yet the world is still more concerned with partisan politics and increased economic consumption, oblivious to the fact that all this is at risk of collapse.  If there is any chance of avoiding the worst of what is already in motion, we will have to act decisively and globally, starting now.  We have squandered the opportunity for gradual changes.  Are we up for it?