Wasting Energy

                                                                                     written 1 December, 2024

                                                                                 published 8 December, 2024

  

            Globally, one in eight people can't afford electricity, even where it is available, yet in the last decade, three computer developments have dramatically increased US electrical consumption: server farms, cryptocurrency, and artificial intelligence (AI).  These consume as much new power as all the renewable production added in the same period of time.  

            Server farms support the explosion in online capacity, which enables walking down the street watching a high-definition movie, or lost in social media.  

            Crypto burns power "mining" new currency, a resource wasteful form of money.  Loss of power can deny access to the wealth, or lose it forever.  Crypto is inflationary, adding new currency to the society without any additional new value.  Prices swing wildly, more speculation or gambling than a foundation for a stable society.  However, it is the preferred currency for those wanting to avoid centralized control, and thus supports the black market in blackmail, drugs, and weapons.  

            AI (more properly called "advanced machine learning") is the hottest "next new thing", with potential valuation in the trillions.  Despite many promising possible positive values, it also quickly brings to mind the Terminator series of movies.  The Pentagon is working on killer robots as the next logical step beyond drone warfare.  AI is already destroying jobs, and amplifies cheating and disinformation.  The AI "learning" process plagiarizes existing copywritten work.  Thousands of low paid workers in third world countries manually identifying objects and materials as more grist for the process.  

            Because the energy required for all this is adding to an already stressed electrical grid, the magical solution is nuclear power!  Nuclear plants scheduled for retirement are now being pushed to extend operation specifically for servers and AI.  Reactors already in the decommissioning process are being considered for revival.  At this point, these plans are only proposals.  Reality may prevail.  No large nuclear plants have ever been restarted, let alone shifted from decommissioning to renewed operation.  The pool of trained nuclear workers is aging and retiring.  Just extending plant operation, without massive and expensive refitting, risks increased failure from embrittlement.  

            However, the nuclear industry is very big money, and hope springs eternal.  Originally advertised as "too cheap to meter", nuclear power today is twice as expensive as grid scale solar with storage.  Existing commercial reactors are massive, over 1,000 megawatts (MW) capacity, and are built singularly, thus very expensive and time consuming to construct. 

            The latest nuclear salvation is going to be small modular reactors (SMR), with reduced capacity (1-50MW), and the promise mass production will make them more affordable.  New designs will be less likely to explode like Fukushima, because they will be cooled with sodium, operating at higher temperatures and won't boil away when power is lost.  Rather than long fuel rods, small spheres of nuclear material will be used, that can be added over time without shutting down the plant.  Alternately, the entire reactor can be replaced, and a new one installed, like a battery.

            However, there are still issues to resolve.  No SMR is currently available in the market place, and it may be a decade before that happens, with an unknown price tag.  SMR production will only be profitable if there is sufficient demand, which is not the case right now.  These will still produce high level nuclear waste, needed sequestering from living systems for millions of years.  After 70 years of commercial nuclear power, the US has not created any adequate storage.  Smaller reactors have a larger ratio of surface area to fuel volume, therefore the entire reactor structure will become radioactive sooner than in larger systems.  This will make "replacing" an SMR problematic.

            Finally, there is the fuel source itself: uranium.  Uranium is finite, and global production peaked in 2016.  The US is not in the top ten producing countries, and most of them are not our allies.  While all uranium isotopes are radioactive, one specific isotope, U-235, is required for profitable commercial operation.  Raw ore contains less than 1 percent of U-235, which must be concentrated (enriched), using massive amounts of electricity, to 5-10 percent for a reactor.  The US imports enriched uranium from Russia, which just cut us off due to our support for Ukraine.  The only domestic commercial enrichment facility is not expected to be operational for another decade.

            Our bus is speeding downhill on a twisty mountain road in heavy fog with fading brakes, and a driver stoned on visions of profit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Drill, Baby, Drill

                                                                                   written 24 November, 2024

                                                                                 published 1 December, 2024

     

            One of the more persistent "policies" of Trump is the belief that climate change is a hoax.  It was recently suggested to me that maybe he doesn't really mean it.  While Trump is a documented serial liar (over 34,000 at last report), I suspect he might try to follow through on this one.  

            Trump has demonstrated that his attention sways in whichever direction brings him the most money personally.  He already asked for $1 billion dollars from the fossil fuel companies during the campaign, and I suspect they will be delighted to "help him out", now that he can deliver for them.  So, the plan is "drill, baby, drill".  

            In addition, Trump has trouble dealing with difficult issues that are contrary to his view of "reality", or might require actual leadership.  For example, when first confronted with the exploding COVID crisis, he denied it was serious, and "would just go away".  Similarly, effectively dealing with the root of the climate issue would take massive leadership skills.  Much simpler to deny the issue in the first place.  

            But the climate crisis is only part of reality being denied.  Fossil fuels are finite resources.  About half of the known global oil reserves have already been produced and burned.  The US was one of the first nation to develop commercial oil production, and our original fields are now depleted, producing a ghost of the original bounty.  US production of traditional oil (everything other than tar sands, deep ocean, or tight oil) peaked in 1972, and traditional sources peaked globally in 2005. 

            There is still oil, but there is no more cheap oil.  That is a very big difference.  Tar sand production is more like mining than pumping oil, very energy intensive, demanding vast quantities of water for the processing, and adds disproportionate levels of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.  Deep water ocean wells are also expensive to develop and produce.  

            Beginning in 2006, the land based fracking boom once again made the US a global production leader, but this is literally scrapping the bottom of the barrel.  Traditional oil resources were large pools of oil, which, once developed, produced for decades.  Fracking of tight oil is recovering very thin layers of oil within layers of rock.  Not only is the process of drilling and fracturing the rock (fracking) energy and resource intensive, the reserves are so small that a given well depletes in a couple of years, requiring constant addition of new wells.

            The most profitable fracking regions in the US are depleted, and production peaked in 2018.  Investors now realize it has always been a money loser, except when oil prices are very high.  In addition, US refineries were built to process a heavier grade of crude oil than comes from fracked wells, so imported heavy oil is essential, or refineries have to be rebuilt at great expense.

            Drilling for more oil is a fantasy, even if we ignore the climate concerns.  It is important to remember that oil companies are not really in the business of selling oil.  They are in the business of providing the highest return for their shareholders, which is a very different business entirely.  Why spend vast amounts of money to develop more oil reserves, when they are only profitable when prices are so high oil dependent economies are soon forced into recession?  Instead, they are spending money buying back shares, which enriches the shareholders, the primary goal, without the risk of trying to produce more unaffordable oil.

            This problem is not unique to the US.  Saudi Arabia owns the largest conventional oil reserves.  For a quarter of a century, they have been pumping water into their fields, a technique to float out the last of their reserves.  Russia's reserves are large as well, but production is depleting, and their undeveloped fields in the Arctic Ocean are expensive to produce, requiring investment and expertise from western companies.

            The global search for oil has been very sophisticated, but discovery of new reserves peaked more than a half century ago.  The oil is there, but the expense of getting it is increasingly uneconomical.  However, money is flexible, and massive investments can be made to look good on paper, but eventually bankrupt the system.  

            Trump may try to pretend the climate crisis is unreal, but his energy policy is economically and geologically bankrupt.  Reality prevails eventually, and has little tolerance for fools.

 

 

 

 

 

End Of Times

                                                                                   written 17 November, 2024

                                                                               published 24 November, 2024

   

            With Trump as president elect, some are grieving and others are ecstatic, but a few who voted for him are already becoming nervous as he chooses his cabinet.

            Much is written about why so many people picked him.  Some have Fox News on all day long, although Fox admitted they lie for profit to keep viewers.  Talk radio has pushed disinformation for decades, stoking fear for profit.  Social media algorithms are designed to addict viewers, increasing profit, while amplifying the worst aspects of humanity.  

            Our education system has produced generations with little to no critical thinking skills, or whole system awareness.  Some people weren't even paying attention, perhaps burned out by 24 months of Trump every day.  Google searches just before election day spiked on "when did Biden drop out?"

            Democrats have been cast as too elitist, ignoring the working class and those with little higher education.  The middle class has been slowly hollowed out for 50 years, while concentration of wealth now exceeds the roaring 20's before the Great Depression.  Inflation keeps increasing, driven by corporate greed, resource depletion, and the growing destruction caused by the climate crisis.  The empowerment of women, based on the audacious belief that women are actual people, threatens generations of masculine privilege.  Men are afraid women will laugh at them and women are afraid men will kill them.

            All of this has contributed, but doesn't fully explain why anyone except a billionaire thinks Trump will help them.  However, I live in a west coast bubble, and am often reminded at election time how out of touch I am.

            My wife Lynn walks every day.  She encountered two men with signs on School Street.  One was shouting for people to "repent".  Being good hearted, she smiled at him, and was handed a small cartoon book about the Beast and End Times, according to the Bible.

            I was struck by a passage from 2 Timothy 3:2-5.  "For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy, without natural affection, trucebreakers, false accusers, incontinent, fierce, despisers of those that are good, traitors, heady, high minded, lovers of pleasures more than lovers of God."  This describes Trump in detail, but "Christians" revere him as their salvation.

            We do seem to be living in end times.  The seas are dying, pandemics assault the planet, fire, floods and drought hit everywhere.  Trump sells the idea that all is bleak, and that he is the savior, appealing to all those who yearn for the rapture, when sinners burn in hell for eternity and the saved rise to heaven in the final judgement.  A war in the middle east is one of the signal events.  Even though everyone there will die, some evangelical "Christians" wait expectantly.

            I am inspired by the teachings of Christ, who said the two most important things were to love God and love other people.  But I can't identify with the religious organizations that men have created in Christ's name.  How did the teaching "love God" change to defining a good Christian as "God fearing?"  Love and fear are polar opposites, one opens up and the other closes down.  To believe they are the same is crazy making.  However, fear is a powerful tool for domination and judgement, excellent for controlling the faithful.

            Rather than loving other people, they are hated and killed.  Not only are "heathens" (non-Christians) the victims, but Christians kill Christians as well.  Today, some "Christians" rally at churches with guns, shouting "death to Democrats".  This makes sense for a domination/judgement organization, but can't seriously be considered following Christ.  

            I do believe most Christians strive to live Christ's teaching, loving all life and all people.  But most religious organizations on Earth, no matter which faith, tend toward domination and judgement.  The religious denigration of women is widespread.  The Taliban in Afghanistan keep their women in bags when in public, and now prohibit speech if any but family can hear.  In the US, with generations of empowered women, the radical fundamentalists can only insist they bleed to death in a parking lot if they miscarry, but they expect to make more "progress" under Trump 2.0.

            Democracy is subverted to profit and power, and organized religion has lost its way.  Trump is a consequence of this perversion, and has nothing to offer as a real solution.  We do live in interesting times.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disappointed And Sad

                                                                                   written 10 November, 2024

                                                                               published 17 November, 2024

     

            Now we know.  A majority of the voting public picked Trump.       

            I believe the world is whole, despite not yet being reflected in our dominant culture.  But inexorable social change is happening, and like it or not, we are all in this together.  I was optimistic this election would demonstrate a majority of people felt the same way.  I was mistaken, thus disappointed, and sad for the missed opportunities and disruption that is coming.  

            There is a deep anger in America.  People feel economically left out, and threatened by the rapidly changing reality of the world.  The status quo doesn't address their needs.  Trump recognized that rage.  But he is a corrupt, greedy, chronic liar, operating on hate, misogyny, and revenge, and can therefore offer no real solutions to the fundamental structural problems.  Supported by billionaires and hard right conservative groups, the damage to come, at home and across the world, is mind boggling.  But I don't want to add to the litany of doom, so I am casting about for some place to stand, with any kind of hope going forward.  

            Each day we read some uplifting spiritual material, reminding us of the loving unity that we all arise within.  That helps.  My view has been a minority opinion most of my life, but it is still relevant.  These times seems more dire, but the fundamental issue is the same.  Can I live my life, from moment to moment, experiencing the calm joy of unity reality, or do I spiral into a dark pit of despair, believing myself cut off, an isolated individual in an infinite, hostile world?

            I have experienced both joy and despair at times in my life, and I prefer joy.  I know my personal power lies within the choice of responses I make in each moment, which determines what I experience internally, despite the exterior reality.  That is not to say that I am always able to remember that power, but it is there, and I have experienced it enough to give me confidence in the truth.

            Another technique for being calm in a storm is meditation.  After multiple failed attempts over my life, I now have a strong daily routine.  It is an internal refuge, a familiar place I go to practice experiencing a still mind.  This capacity is part of my human birthright, accessible to everyone, should they choose.

            Unity reality understands we all arise from the same source, which includes not only all of manifested material form, but also contains wisdom and information, which we experience as inspiration and creativity.  Our active personality mind, always focused on exterior world events, dominates, so the quiet voice of inspiration is easily overwhelmed, like trying to hear a soft-spoken person during a loud musical concert.  Creating an inner calm makes this inner communication more efficient.  Anxiety is reduced.  With less stress, the physical body is healthier.  Life becomes more graceful, even amidst turmoil.  From a calm, inspired center, I can examine our situation more clearly, with less knee-jerk patterning.

            Our society has problems.  The consumer economy keeps people dissatisfied with their life so they will constantly buy the next new thing.  Is chronic dissatisfaction healthy?  Is infinite consumption sustainable on a finite planet?

             Housing is increasingly unaffordable.  Corporate Real Estate Investment Trusts own 40 percent of all single family home rentals.  Does treating a home as an investment increase prices?

            America is 4 percent of the global population, but we consume 24 percent of the energy and resources, 6 times our share.  Is it any wonder people from other parts of the world want to come here?  How long can we keep this imbalance going?  At what cost?  Even within the US, the benefits are not evenly distributed.  Three families control about half the total wealth, and our culture believes greed is good.  Is it a surprise there is wide spread anger?

            Extreme wealth represents a mental disorder, much like extreme hoarding or extreme obesity.  Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, overworks his 170 thousand employees and fight against unions, but squandered $33B turning Twitter into the hate saturated "X".  If he had given that same amount to his workers, would his employee moral have improved?

            It's profitable to kill the planet.  What could possibly go wrong?

            Rebuilding our society is essential, but Trump expresses the worst excesses of the present system, so he won't be bothered.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Once Upon A Time

                                                                                     written 3 November, 2024

                                                                               published 10 November, 2024

      

            Once upon a time, people believed the Earth was flat.  It was obvious, just look around, especially when looking at the ocean.  Some people feared if they sailed too far, they would fall off the edge.  Eventually, as adventurous people sailed out and returned, the understanding of Earth as a sphere became common knowledge, even if not directly experienced.

            Once upon a time, people believed the Earth was the center of the Universe, and everything rotated about it.  It was obvious, just look around, and watch the Sun, Moon, and all the stars move across the sky.  This perspective was enforced by the Church.  

            But astronomers noticed that planetary motion did not follow the perfect circles dictated by the Church.  Copernicus was one of the first to suggest the Earth is a rotating sphere, and orbits the Sun.  Although he was a canon of the Church, his heliocentric ideas were revolutionary.  To avoid criticism and social turmoil, he remained relatively unpublished until his death in 1543, 

            A few decades later, Galileo, one of the first scientific astronomers, championed Copernican heliocentrism.  By then, the growing scientific revolution threatened the Church, so an inquisition in 1615 found Galileo guilty of heresy, spreading "opinions contradicting Biblical interpretation", and held him in house arrest until his death in 1642.

            Despite Church efforts, reality prevailed.  Social evolution continued, and today most people know we live on a sphere, rotating over 800mph (in Ukiah), traveling around the Sun at 33,000mph.  Since everything around us is moving at the same speed, and we only notice differences, we don't experience the motion.  But one of the most widely reproduced photographs, shows the brilliant blue and white sphere of Earth against the deep black of space, viewed from the moon.

            Once upon a time, people believed matter was solid, discrete, irreducible atomic chunks.  It was obvious, just look around, every "thing" has a unique location in place and time, each clearly different.  Thousands of years of culture supported this idea.  But a little over a century ago, the inexorable scientific revolution demonstrated that atoms are made of even smaller parts.  Additionally, all these material parts, when examined correctly, are just little waves on the surface of a vast energy ocean.

            Like most human discoveries, the first application was to blow up our enemies, but the door had been opened, and the consequence of this new way of thinking now manifests as the powerful smart phone in your pocket, putting access to the entire world at your fingertips.  We are fundamentally connected.

            But even the idea of "connected" is misleading, as it starts from the perspective of individual pieces in relationship.  Imagine going to the ocean, and thinking that all those waves are somehow "connected" to the ocean from which they arise.  While superficially accurate, the deeper understanding is that the vast ocean IS, and the waves are only tiny expressions on the surface.  While each wave is unique, it never exists apart from the oceanic unity. 

            At the sea shore, we can experience both the waves and the ocean, and grasp the relationship.  With matter, we only experience the difference of surface waves, not the unity of the immense ocean of energy underlying everything.  That is why we go around thinking one color of skin is "better" than another, deluded by the surface, without regarding the content.  They say, "don't judge a book by its cover", but we are locked into the superficial differences, a naive consideration of reality.  Gender, race, age: none of these determine the deeply human nature of an individual, yet, based on our culture or religion, we will hate, even kill, based on such limitations.  As we begin to experience the common ocean, rather than being distracted by the surface waves, we will see that any attack on the "other", is an attack on ourselves.  War is suicide.  Hate is self-loathing, no matter what your religion teaches.

            All through time, some individuals, and some cultures, have known this truth.  However, the culture dominant on the planet today, ignores this truth, honoring instead selfish greed at the expense of everything else.  Is it any wonder that people despair?  Or that the climate is out of balance?  

            But an awakening is happening.  Our unity reality is more clearly manifest all the time.  There will be a time when we look back at how foolish humans were, and shake our head.

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cultivating A Calm Center

                                                                                       written 27 October, 2024

                                                                                 published 3 November, 2024

            I believe in science.  The Earth is a sphere, orbiting the Sun, and the climate crisis is real, already destroying our economy.  Trump and his MAGA followers believe it is all a hoax.  Everything else follows from there.  

            In my opinion, Trump is selling fear, divisiveness, and increasingly demented rage, while the alternative is effective democracy.  However, I understand Trump supporters are just as concerned about a Harris victory, convinced by their leader and Fox News that evil is afoot.  

            This article is first being published two days before election day, but most Californians who plan to vote have already done so.  It will be reprinted elsewhere after polls have closed, but in a close race, the results may still be unclear.  Which side will prevail?  The stress and anxiety are affecting everyone.  What is a person to do?   

            I suggest the solution abides within. 

            Start by sitting quietly, and listen to your heart beating.  My heart has beat steadily more than 3 billion times so far.  When it stops, I stop.  While I can do things to affect the rate and duration, I have no control over the fact of that continual beat.  It is a gift of life to me.  I have done nothing to earn that gift.  Feel your own heart beating, and be grateful.

            Without breath, we expire.  I have taken about 750 million breaths so far.  Breathing is where the involuntary muscular system intersects with the voluntary system.  While I can hold my breath for a while, or change my breathing rate, during sleep, breathing continues.  Each inspiration draws in essential oxygen molecules, powering the biochemical carbohydrate combustion system that keeps me going.  But a free oxygen molecule only last about 6 months before being chemically reacted into another molecule, and must be constantly replenished for us to live. 

            In my entire life, I have never paid anything for this essential life ingredient, nor have you.  It is a gift from other life forms, mostly produced by phytoplankton in the ocean and trees on land.  Notice your next breath.  Feel it passing through your nostrils or mouth.  Take another breath.  Give thanks, and be grateful for the living planet that freely offers you this gift. 

            Paying attention to my beating heart and my breathing, brings my awareness into this eternal moment.  I have the immediate essentials for life, and am at peace.  As I continue to focus on my breathing, this calmness endures.  I AM, part of the larger living holism of life.  From this sense of internal sufficiency, simply being, I can contemplate the outer world.  

            Those who cultivate fear want to induce anxiety in other people or our society.  Perhaps they are fearful themselves, and unwilling, or unable, to deal with it and want to spread it.  Some choose to sow fear as a tool of domination, because fearful people are more easily controlled.  Physiologically, fear depresses the digestive and immune systems, as well as the higher brain functions, so decision making passes to the more primitive reptilian brain. Our individual challenge is to choose a different path.

            Most fears are concerns about what might happen, not what is happening right now.  Things happening right now can be dealt with right now, but the future hasn't happened yet, so fears of the future can linger, get amplified, and fester.  In every moment, we decide where we put our conscious attention.  Rather than indulging in fear, either externally generated, or more insidiously, internally generated, we can focus awareness on this present moment, now.

            In the calm awareness of the moment, pick a desired outcome, and hold that focus instead of allowing fear to run amuck.  Even if we forget, and fall into fear again, each instant, we have the opportunity to choose again.  With practice, our quality of life improves, becomes calmer.  

            Additionally, we all radiate energy.  You have experienced being with an anxious person, whose energy adversely affects everyone else.  Being calm radiates as well.  This is something we can do, with wide ranging, and unknown, consequences. 

            Like it or not, we are all in this together.  Even MAGA Republicans are oxygen breathers with beating hearts.  We can choose to live our reality inclusively.  It is simple, but not easy, because of life times of patterning.  Repeatedly choosing calmness over anxiety is an act of empowerment, which can be done anywhere, without needing permission.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Energy Efficiency

                                                                                       written 20 October, 2024

                                                                                   published 27 October, 2024

   

            The current US energy reality is that 79 percent comes from coal, oil, or natural gas, 13 percent comes from real renewables (solar, wind and hydro), and 7 percent comes from nuclear.  Electricity from nuclear is the most expensive power on the grid, twice grid scale solar.  Today, a typical 1,100MW reactor costs about $30B, in part because they are custom made, increasing the cost.  Their size means power production is centralized, needing extensive grid connections.  Only two new reactors have come online in the US since the 1979 Three Mile Island event,

            While there is a resurgence of big money interest in small modular reactors, with projected capacity of 1MW-300MW, this is still at the concept stage, despite a few holes in the ground for new development facilities.  The expectation is that mass produced smaller reactors will be cheaper.  However, these won't be in production any sooner than 2030, with no idea of final cost.  Consequently, there is no actual market for these reactors right now.  

            As the climate crisis grows, the need to eliminate further fossil fuel combustion is imperative.  But even some people not employed by a fossil fuel company believe there is no practical way to eliminate fossil fuels.  Is there any hope?  Perhaps.

            A Sankey Flowchart is a graphic representation of our total energy system in one visual diagram.  The chart breaks energy down into four levels.  Primary energy in the original material, such as coal, oil, or natural gas.  This is converted into Secondary energy, which is a form that can be transported, such as electricity, gasoline, or diesel.  Final energy has been distributed to the end customer, and is applied as Useful energy for the individual need.  Every step is inefficient, with some percentage going to "waste", often rejected as heat.  The result is that Useful energy is only about 1/3 of the original Primary energy.

            For example, when coal (primary) is burned to produce steam, to turn a turbine, which generates electricity (secondary), 65 percent of the energy is already lost.  Burning natural gas, the other major source of electrical production, the loss is still 55 percent.  Coal and gas plants are large and expensive, lasting about 30 years, getting less efficient as they age.  Shutdowns due to regular maintenance, or emergencies, waste energy in the long cool down and heat up phases.  As grid load peaks, older, less efficient plants come online. Even though they are used at less than their full capacity, the plants need to be kept hot, and staffed, even if only needed for an hour a day.  

            Other fossil fuel usage is also inefficient.  Natural gas stoves put only 40 percent of the heat into your food, the rest is lost heating the kitchen.  In an automobile, as little as 20 percent goes into moving the car, the rest is lost moving various parts, operating accessory items, and most heats the atmosphere.  Much of that useful 20 percent is thrown away when you brake the car to a stop.

            Real renewables skip the combustion/heat phase entirely, going straight to electricity.  Losses from grid transmission, distribution, and battery storage are much less, increasing the percentage of useful energy available. 

            An induction heated stove uses much less energy to cook the same food.  An electric car uses 90% of the electrical energy, providing 3-4 times more milage per unit of energy.  In addition, regenerative breaking recaptures some of the energy used to get the car moving, and stores it back into the battery to be used again.  Heat pumps heat a building 3-4 times more efficiently, because they simply move the ambient heat in the air, rather than creating it through combustion.

            A completely electrified economy would need 40% less total energy than our current economy, and renewables would produce that energy 3 times more efficiently.  Completely switching to electricity gives much more bang for the energy buck. 

            But this requires transforming our entire energy economy.  Millions of jobs will be affected, some lost from the old energy technology, and many more added to construct, and install the new systems.  Global estimates range up $45T, which is a lot.  However, we already pay about $7T per year for fossil fuels.  If unaddressed, the climate crisis will cost $180T, and risks putting an end to humanity.  The only question is: do we have the wisdom and will to make it happen?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Sane Society

                                                                                       written 13 October, 2024

                                                                                   published 20 October, 2024

   

            In 1956, philosopher/psychologist Erich Fromm wrote "The Sane Society", exploring how a sane person can living within an insane society, which demands some definition of the term "sane".  A brief web search finds definitions such as: "proceeding from a rational mind", "able to anticipate effect of one's actions", "healthy", "balanced between mind and emotions", and "consensual validation".  However, Fromm argued that just because a person is in accord with their culture, that doesn't mean the culture itself is sane.  A simple example, with local roots, was Peoples Temple, which resulted in the 1978 mass suicide in Guyana, using poisoned Kool-Aid, when relatively normal folks believed their charismatic paranoid leader.  Clearly, true sanity can't be just consensual agreement.

            In my opinion, sanity is awareness and experience in harmony with the larger reality, including not only the outer, cultural reality, but equally important, clear experience of our own inner reality.  It is well known that our entire experience is shaped by our internal perception.  We see what we believe, and then mistakenly assume what we see is absolutely true, rather than only relatively true, at best.  Consequently, examining, and understanding, our internal story is essential to experiencing a more harmonious life.

            A slogan which inspires me reads: "When one's spiritual needs are met by an untroubled inner life, happiness comes when work and words are of benefit to yourself and others".

            Without an internal enquiry, we are at the mercy of subconscious patterns that shape and disrupt our life, many of which were laid down long before we were even conscious of ourselves as individual beings.  These include everything from the culture and economy we were raised in, our native language, and the wisdom and compassion (or lack thereof) of our parents.  

            Integrity comes from having a good sense of our inner experience, combined with the courage to live our truth in the face of conflicting opinions.  This can be dangerous, generating strong pressure in response, even to the point of physical violence and death.  A common tool of all authoritarian systems is to demand allegiance, enforced by violence.

            Our society is under stress, as people with different beliefs accept different "facts", eroding our cultural agreement.  These social fissures are long standing, but Trump has amplifying them for his personal gain.  He is the product of his upbringing, with an authoritarian father, an emotionally unavailable mother, and enough family money to dominate everyone he ever encountered.  Many psychological professionals, including his niece, have described him as a malignant narcissist, unable to experience anything other than his own world view, taking credit for everything, and responsibility for nothing.  

            He is documented to lie about anything, if he thinks it will be to his advantage in the moment.  But Trump is very charismatic, believing everything he says, at the time he says it, even if he said something completely different just a moment before, so people believe him, even if it is to their own disadvantage.

            My particular focus is the climate crisis, which Trump claims is a hoax.  But despite his claims, climate change is real.  Recently, hurricanes Helene and Milton have created such devastation in traditionally red areas of the country, that people are beginning to see that what is happening in their own life conflicts with the lies Trump and his enablers continue to spout.  Trump lied that FEMA wasn't helping, even after the governors of Georgia, and both Carolinas publicly applauded FEMA assistance.  In Florida, people know that officially banning the term "climate change" didn't save their communities.   

            When reality conflicts with preconceived ideas, a person can go one of two ways.  The diehard believers double down, taking refuge in conspiracy theories like "they can control the weather", and usually blame "someone else", often from a dogmatic religious framework.  Either God is punishing the wicked (those that don't agree with the believer), or Evil is driving the situation, demanding the righteous take action.  This can engender intense passion, and complete certainty.  However, from an inclusive unity perspective, these are followers of a little god, despite their passionate conviction.

            The alternative path is to change our mind, realizing we have been led astray by people with ulterior motives, not aligned with our interests.  At some point, everyone will experience we are all in this together.  The only real questions are: how long will it take? and will we still be able to respond effectively?

 

             

 

Our Foolish Energy System

                                                                                         written 6 October, 2024

                                                                                   published 13 October, 2024

  

            Recently, Helene came ashore as a category 4 hurricane, 600 miles in diameter.  A tropical depression just a few days earlier, the very hot water in the Gulf of Mexico rapidly amplified the storm, and increased the amount of water it carried. 

            Helene made landfall in the Big Bend section of Florida, the third, and strongest, hurricane to hit there in just 13 months, producing a 15 foot storm surge, the largest ever recorded in that area.  Moving quickly inland, Helene dropping torrents of rain, before dissipating hundreds of miles north.  The hardest hit parts of North Carolina had already experienced days of rain before Helene arrived, and some areas received as much as 24 inches, causing epic flooding and destruction.

            Another tropical depression has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and will reach Florida before this article is printed, possibly as a category 3 hurricane.

            The Project 2025 authoritarian plan for the United States claimed in the climate section that "climate change is overstated, and will be mild and manageable."  The reality now being dealt with in the southeast is neither mild, nor manageable.  Insured costs and infrastructure repair expenses are estimated at over $150B, and will take years to accomplish.  This doesn't include uninsured losses, or business income lost during recovery.  When your home and place of work have been destroyed, getting back to "normal" can take time.  Some of the people in Florida haven't recovered from the previous two hurricanes, and may not ever rebuild there.  Home insurance in Florida is already four times more expensive than California, and the industry may not survive the current impacts. 

            The climate we experience today is the result of more than a century of changing atmospheric chemistry, resulting from human energy production, trapping more heat, which is then distributed in more extreme weather events.  Storms are becoming more numerous, stronger, larger, and carry more rain.  No place on Earth is immune.

            For those willing to actually look at the issue, the challenge is stark: stop adding to the problem (economic decarbonization), and begin removing what has already been done (carbon sequestration).  For those addicted to the money of the status quo, and willing to ignore the reality of the ongoing impact, this is intolerable.  We saw that at the Vice-Presidential debate, a few days after the Helene devastation.  When asked about the climate crisis, Vance faithfully parroted the party line.  Republicans are committed to "clean air and water" (without mentioning greenhouse gases), and the solution is "Drill Baby Drill".

            Without even considering the climate crisis, our current energy solution is foolish, leading to economic bankruptcy and societal collapse.  Classic fiscal advice is to conserve your savings, and live on the income.  The cautionary tale is the person who rapidly spends their inheritance, and then dies broke.  Humanity inherited a vast supply of stored solar energy in the form of fossil fuels, laid down over tens of millions of years.  In just two centuries, we have burned through about half of that inheritance.  These have been the most accessible reserves, which produced the cheapest power.  As we continue to deplete our finite energy savings, all future fossil fuels will become increasingly more expensive.  This same limitation is inherent in nuclear fission, which also consumes rare, finite material.

            The alternative is learning to live within our income.  We can now efficiently harvest our daily energy income, collecting it as solar, wind, or hydro power (collectively called renewables), and efficiently store this energy until needed.  Unlike all energy produced by combustion, this energy is free, needing only the hardware to collect it, which is a fixed cost.  Furthermore, the collection/storage hardware can be produced in a range of sizes, from vast systems to those scaled for a single dwelling.  This helps free us from the constraint of centralization, which requires huge capital investments and massive distribution systems.  Such energy systems are useful all over the planet, and the increasing scale of manufacturing keeps reducing the costs every year.

            Tapping another free energy source, the emerging technology of closed loop geothermal power collects the internal heat of the planet.  It can be located almost anywhere, with a modest physical footprint.

            Learning to live within our energy income is sustainable well into the future.  The existing energy system is getting more expensive, and produces unintended consequences that are killing our society.  Are we wise enough to change?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

             

 

Gambling On Nuclear

                                                                                   written 29 September, 2024

                                                                                     published 6 October, 2024

    

            PG&E's Diablo Canyon nuclear plant, located on the coast near San Luis Obispo, is the last operating nuclear facility in California.  The two 1,100MW reactors came online in 1985 and 1986, designed to operate for 40 years.  In 2016, PG&E announced plans to close both reactors by 2025, rather than incur costly upgrades.

            Nuclear power is baseload power, meaning it operates 24 hours a day, but output can't easily be adjusted to meet variable grid loads.  These days, it is the most expensive form of utility scale electricity.  As with all combustion power sources, uranium is a finite fuel, and most deposits easy to access have been depleted, driving up fuel costs.  Each reactor holds tens of tons of enriched uranium fuel, but the nuclear decay by-products degrade the energy efficiency of the fuel rods, requiring refueling after just 5 percent of the uranium has been consumed, contributing to the high operating costs.  After 70 years of commercial nuclear power, there is still no adequate storage for the highly radioactive used fuel rods. 

            While it is accurate that a normally functioning nuclear reactor does not emit any greenhouse gases, there is great concern about what happens when a reactor fails.  Greenhouse gases last for ten centuries, but radioactive contamination lasts for a thousand centuries.  There have been three major reactor malfunctions that made the news (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima), so we know such failures are possible. 

            The Diablo Canyon reactors are at the end of their design life, without any upgrades, and it is known that prolonged, intense radiation embrittles metal, weakening it, increasing risk of failure.  There are three active seismic faults within three miles of the Diablo Canyon plant, each capable of a magnitude 7 event, including one running right through the site.  PG&E tested for embrittlement in 2006, but refused to make the results public, claiming "proprietary information", and has postponed any further testing.  A structural failure of a weakened reactor cooling system due to an earthquake could cause wide spread radiation contamination.

            Fukushima failed when the tsunami flooded the emergency backup generators, causing several reactors to overheat and melt down, with resulting hydrogen explosions.  This was a direct result of original cost cutting decisions about how high to build protective sea walls, and sea level placement of the generators.  Safety is always sacrificed when decisions prioritize maximum profit.

            The reactors at Fukushima broke thirteen years ago, and real clean-up has yet to begin because the site is still too lethal for even robots to operate.  Cleanup costs are estimated at over a trillion dollar, and will take 4 decades, considered optimistic, as clean up on this scale has never been accomplished before.  

            PG&E is not liable for any radiation contamination damages, or cleanup costs, by long standing federal legislation.  No insurance policy in the country has ever covered such losses, because the price is indeterminant and the risk is completely unknown.  

            In 2021, the California Energy Commission became concerned about summer blackouts resulting from increasing air conditioning loads due to growing planetary heating, and recommended Diablo Canyon continue operating until 2035.  Recently, all electric utilities were told they must share the cost of keeping the plant open, even if they aren't in PG&E territory.

            Despite plans to operate past the original design life of the system, PG&E has not been required to make any major plant upgrades, which would be expensive and time consuming.  In addition, PG&E has not been required to make public the embrittlement testing done 18 years ago, or make any new tests on the current state of the system.  We are supposed to just "trust them", and hope for the best.

            This is the nuclear gamble: operate an aging nuclear plant, in an unknown operating condition, sitting on known fault systems, hoping for no seismic events for the next decade.  On the one hand, it has worked so far, and PG&E continues to get massive profits from the most expensive power on the grid.  However, should a low probability seismic event occur, and the reactors break, contaminating the center of California, PG&E is fiscally responsible for nothing.  However, we all get to deal with, and pay for, the result.  

            This is typical corporate financial reasoning: capitalize the profits and socialize the losses.  Sweet deal for the company, which has already demonstrated its complete disregard for customer welfare over the last few decades.

 

 

 

 

 

 

             

 

Wealth and Power

                                                                                   written 15 September, 2024

                                                                               published 29 September, 2024

 

            While democracy is central in the American mythos, exclusive gain has been rooted in America from the beginning.  Arising from the erroneous belief in separation, it perceives a hostile world, so control seems imperative. Thus, concentration of power and wealth is deemed essential for survival of a ruling elite, with the axiom "all for ourselves, and nothing for anyone else".  The "founding fathers", wealthy landowning men, fought the revolution to eliminate control by a small overseas elite, and created control by a larger domestic one instead.  

            Noam Chomsky's "Requiem For The American Dream" lists 10 practices which have been used to concentrate power in the last century.

            1: Reduce Democracy.  The ideal of democracy is the empowerment of the entire population.  Since exclusive gain produces wide spread poverty and misery, the democratic threat is the poor will rise up, demanding a larger portion of the economic pie.  The elite works to avoid this.

            2: Shape Ideology.  The economic crash of 1929, the result of wealth inequity and financial excesses, brought a wave of democratic policies to restore the country, spreading wealth through governmental actions.  This endured until the early 70's, when businesses began complaining they were "losing control", as worker's rights, civil rights, women's rights, and environmental concerns worked to limit the unfettered greed inherent in the so called "free market".  Socialism was demonized as an "excess of democracy", and critics were derided as unpatriotic, amplified by increased media concentration. 

            3: Redesign The Economy.  Production shifted overseas, chasing cheaper labor and fewer regulations, maximizing profit while destroying the democratic power of domestic unions.  As the economy shifted from manufacturing to financing, New Deal financial regulations deterring reckless bank activities were removed, allowing governmentally insured deposits to be speculatively invested.  Short term profits were prioritized.  

            4: Shift The Burden.  The progressive tax structure, which redistributed wealth and reduced economic inequity, was dismantled.  As the wealthy pay less, the poor pay more, working longer at more jobs to afford to live.  Instead of a strong middle class as our social foundation, wealth now supposedly "trickles down".  

            5: Attack Solidarity.  Compassion, an innate human trait, is a threat to exclusive gain.  Social Security supports economic solidarity, creating a stronger society, but is described as on the "verge of bankruptcy", and targeted for privatization.  However, most of the income of the wealthy does not contribute, exacerbating this apparent economic crisis.  An educated public makes a stronger society.  Reducing taxes precludes governmental support of free education, once quite common, making education a privilege, because a less educated public is more easily controlled.  A healthy population makes a healthy society, and should be a basic human right, but American health care is mostly privatized and expensive.

            6: Run The Regulators.  Regulations attempt to limit the damage of unrestrained capitalist greed.  But regulations are now often written by the regulated industry.  The regulators become part of doing business, described as "regulatory capture".

            7: Engineer The Elections.  Corporations are now "people", and donate unlimited election funds, sometimes totally anonymous, thanks to years of effort by Republicans on the Supreme Court.  The Senate and the Electoral College were designed to be undemocratic.  Republican policies are unpopular, so gerrymandering and voter purges are their electoral response.

            8: Keep The Rabble In Line.  The labor movement has been a constant opponent to the exclusive gain of the elites.  Consequently, businesses have worked to destroy unions, increasing wealth inequity.

            9: Manufacture Consent.  Power is always in the hands of the collective, so efforts are made to keep them divided.  The public relations industry accentuates societal differences and obscures similarities.  It also supports the distraction of the consumer industry, keeping people in debt, struggling to buy the "next new thing".

            10: Marginalize The Population.  Public policy controlled by the wealthy is prioritized to meet their needs, but not those of the majority.  This leads to desperation, depression, and rage.  Trump taps into that rage, even though he has no policies to help his faithful, as he is one of the elite.

            All democracies eventually go one of two ways: increasing authoritarianism until eventual collapse, or sustained effort to reduce economic inequity.  The climate crisis adds a new imperative, which will speed the collapse if we ignore it much longer.  Any real climate solution has to be globally inclusive, eliminating the foolishness of exclusive gain everywhere.  This election will tell the tale.  How will you vote?