Storm Warning

                                                                                          written 17 May, 2026

                                                                                      published 24 May, 2026

 

            Almost three months ago, the president started the war on Iran.  Iran responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and shipping from the Persian Gulf dropped 95 percent, virtually eliminating a fifth of the global oil supply. Pipelines and overland trucking have allowed some oil to move, but the shortage is still significant.  Published crude oil prices have already jumped from $65/barrel to $104/barrel, and we can all see the impact at the pump.

            But this is only part of the story.  The prices quoted are paper prices, distinct from "dated" prices for delivery of physical oil.  Before the war, dated prices were usually close to paper prices.  But the abrupt closure prioritized having the physical oil over future deliveries, so dated oil jumped an additional $30-$50/barrel.  In recent days this physical oil premium has declined some, due to buyer reliance on stored inventory and hope the conflict will resolve quickly.  But that hope is fading as the stalemate grinds on, and all storage is finite.

            What we have experienced so far is war induced price inflation, with adequate product still available.  The chapter beginning now is an actual reduction in supply.  But the reduction will not be experienced evenly and prices may spike even higher.  Rural areas will be hit harder, as their economic clout is smaller. 

            Here in California, a third of our oil in produced in state and the rest is imported by sea, because there are no oil pipelines from the east.  One third of our imported oil comes from the Persian Gulf.  But a change is about to happen.  The last tanker of prewar Persian Gulf oil unloaded in Long Beach on the third of May, leaving a 20 percent shortfall going forward, although there is some oil in storage. 

            Even if the Strait opened tomorrow, it would take time to get much of that oil delivered.  Oil infrastructure in the war zone has been damaged.  Sources have reduced production, requiring time to get back to former levels.  It is estimated that it will take as much as a year to return to prewar levels of production and prices, even with a quick resolution and no further damage. 

            There will be problematic disparities within the economy, because not all fossil fuels are equal, with diesel being the most important.  In the U.S., most of our domestic oil is from fracking, which is too light to be refined into diesel without adding heavy crude imported from elsewhere.  This puts us in competition with the rest of the world, which also needs heavy crude.  

            Most developed economies are diesel powered, especially the food systems, which includes basic agricultural production, processing, bulk transportation, and retail distribution.  A diesel shortage anywhere in the food system will eventually express as bare spots on grocery store shelves.  We are not approaching a food crisis.  It has already begun.

            Nitrogen fertilizer is mostly produced from natural gas, which the Hormuz closure has disrupted, so prices are surging.  Airlines everywhere are facing higher jet fuel prices as supplies plummet.  The Spirit Airlines bankruptcy is just the first.  Liquefied natural gas is essential for manufacturing, chemical production, and heating systems.  Naphtha supplies the petrochemical raw material for plastics, solvents, and industrial chemicals.  Persian Gulf exports, one fifth of the global total, have ceased.  All supply chains are being affected, as the oil crisis becomes an "everything crisis".  

            Asia and the Pacific region were hit first, being closer, and more dependent of Persian Gulf exports.  Europe will exhaust their stored supplies this month.  America will be hit by July, in part because the U.S. has expanded exports to the rest of the world, acting as if everything is under control, even though we can't even supply our own needs.

            There are no simple, or quick, solutions.  The president, too distracted by his ballroom, won't save us even though he created this entire problem when he unilaterally welched on the international Iranian nuclear deal eight years ago.  Republicans won't save us, because they are subservient to the president.  However, they may be overwhelmed by voter outrage.  

            This is not an extinction event, but it will be a long-lasting emergency.  We have to reduce fossil fuel consumption immediately, in order control prices and preserve societal essentials.  Life as we have known it will change.  This is a community-level challenge, not an individual one.  The people who survive systemic disruption are the ones who organize, share, and look out for each other. 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking For A Silver Lining

                                                                                          written 10 May, 2026

                                                                                      published 17 May, 2026

 

            It is easy to see the problems.  

            The stock market is booming and the president is laser focused on his ballroom, yet many people are hurting.  The National Science Foundation board was fired.  Now political appointees make scientific decisions.  Since we withdrew from the World Health Organization, the Center for Disease Control is no longer the global health standard it was.  The Supreme Court has destroyed the Voting Rights Act.  Republican autocracy is on the rise. 

            There is no money for healthcare, while our military spends as much as the next 8 countries combined.  Despite outspending Iran 90:1, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for the 11th week, threatening the global economy.  In Ukiah, Chevron sells regular for $6.05/gal., and diesel for $7.29/gal., driving up prices for everything else as well.   

            But it is said that even the devil does God's work.  Is there a silver lining in all this?

            It helps to zoom out and look from a global perspective.  In my opinion, our president's denial of the climate crisis is suicidal insanity.  While he is destroying renewable energy systems in the U.S., his war of choice is pushing the rest of the world to accelerate away from fossil fuels, driven by economics and the instability of the fossil fuel market.

            China, the world's leader in renewable hardware production, has experienced a sharp increase in global solar sales since the war began, now shipping 2 gigawatts per day.  While solar is more intermittent than nuclear, that is the energy equivalent to installing a large nuclear reactor every 3 days!  Compare that to the U.S., which just broke ground on one modest modular reactor last month.  

            The lemming like rush to develop AI is being threatened by the current stagnation in the Strait.  This AI frenzy is a race to be first, but the blockade has eliminated materials critical for the production of advanced computer chips, which can take a year to fabricate.  As the pace of hardware stalls, and rising fuel prices increase costs, AI investment, which was precarious to begin with, is becoming more problematic.  There is already strain because AI still produces little actual return for the money it consumes.  Furthermore, local pushback has forced the cancellation of dozens of data centers.  When the financial bubble pops, not only will the entire global economy sink, but the pace of AI development will crash.  However, this could save our society from the chaos of massive unemployment expected from unrestrained AI deployment.

            Another financial outcome already in play is the change in how U.S. dollars are used in the world today.  For almost a half century, most of the oil sold was denominated in dollars, which was a financial advantage for the U.S.  This has changed because much of the Middle East sees China as the wave of the future.  In addition, U.S. bond sales have been heavily supported by foreign investors, subsidizing our ever-growing national debt.  The president's handling of the war makes these investments seem riskier, increasing our costs of borrowing.  The result of both of these changes makes the domination of federal policy by financial institutions increasingly shaky.

            The stalemate in the Strait has demonstrated the U.S. is no longer a trustworthy ally.  While this marks a decline in America's superpower status, it is building more relationships between nations outside U.S. domination.  Much like England after World War 2, America is being challenged to choose to recommit to being a functioning democracy, rather than trying to dominate world affairs.  It is not yet clear that we will make that choice, but we no longer control the process.

            The president reports feeling nervous around people smarter than himself, which explains his cabinet choices.  Their monetary worth is 100 times greater than Biden's cabinet, but chosen for loyalty, not competence.  This administration is riddled with corruption and abuse by the extremely wealthy.  We have a trillionaire, while millions struggle for food, shelter, and healthcare.  Even the president's most diehard supporters are experiencing this inequity.  Perhaps people will begin to see extreme wealth as a mental disorder of hoarding, not a mark of success.

            The coming changes will be hard for us Americans, but if we survive, the world may become a better place.  I believe most people are good, honoring fair play and the core of the Golden Rule.  We are being called to live, and vote, our ideals, becoming the best we can be.

One Man's Ego

                                                                                            written 3 May, 2026

                                                                                      published 10 May, 2026

           

            In August, 1945, the quantum physics theory that all matter is a form of energy was validated when the U.S. destroyed two Japanese cities.  Nuclear bombs, 1,000 times more powerful than previous weapons, began a new chapter in humanity's historic obsession with domination through power.  As no country wanted to be at the mercy of their adversaries, other countries soon joined the club, which today includes: the United States, Russia, England, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.

            The world recognized the need to control this new level of destruction, and the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty helped slow the spread.  189 of the 193 nations have become parties to the treaty.  However, India, Israel, and Pakistan have never agreed, and North Korea withdrew in 2003.

            Atoms For Peace, producing electricity from commercial nuclear reactors, put a benign face of nuclear technology, but made weapons control more difficult.  While nuclear reactors are not nuclear bombs, they have some fundamental infrastructure similarities, and potential bomb material is generated within commercial nuclear "waste".

            Iran's enmity toward the U.S. began in 1953, when we helped overthrow their elected leader over oil issues, and installed the former Shah as their tyrannical dictator to act as our agent in the region.  The Iranian nuclear industry began when the U.S. built them a small research nuclear reactor in 1970.  However, plans to build 20 power reactors were halted by the 1979 Islamic revolution, which solidified American enmity toward Iran.  America applied economic sanctions and "froze" (stole) $12 billions of Iranian state funds then on deposit in western banks, worth $55 billions today.

            With Russian help, Iran then spent decades developing their nuclear infrastructure, asserting a right to have nuclear electrical power.  But concerns grew that they were getting close to building nuclear weapons. 

            Both sides were entrenched in their mutual mistrust and hatred, making effective agreement very difficult.  However, when Obama was president, the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany began negotiations with Iran, offering incentives to constrain their nuclear ambitions.  After 20 months of talks, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in July 2015.

            Iran gave up 98 percent of its enriched uranium.  Their uranium mining, production, enrichment, and research were restricted and monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog.  Inspectors had unfettered access to Iranian nuclear facilities, ensuring they pursued only civilian work.  If Iran was found to be non-compliant, UN sanctions would immediately resume.  In return, Iran was granted economic sanction relief and their frozen funds were to be returned.  

            For several years, the IAEA certified Iran was keeping its commitments.  The threat was contained, a testament to the power of diplomacy. 

            However, in May 2018, seventeen months into his first term, our new president's ego decided the JCPOA was a "terrible deal".  Perhaps he wanted to destroy anything Obama had achieved.  Perhaps he was just wanted attention.  Based on nothing, without consulting the other parties to the treaty, without consulting Congress, he withdrew the U.S. government from the JCPOA and reimposed oil and banking sanctions.   

            Iran, claiming the U.S. government had demonstrated it was untrustworthy, declared it would resume enrichment without any limitations, and barred international inspectors.  By early 2023 it had stockpiled enough enriched material to potentially approach nuclear breakout.  This was the disaster everyone had feared, unilaterally created by our president, on a whim.  

            On 13 June, 2025, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iranian nuclear targets and personnel, which ended 12 days later when the U.S. dropped "bunker busters" on the underground enrichment facilities.  The president announced he "completely and totally obliterated" their nuclear capacity, but the Pentagon assessed it had been set back maybe 2 years.  

            Having welched on a working deal, and then failed to destroy the resulting Iranian nuclear program, the president doubled down, encouraged by hawks in our government.  On 28 February, 2026, the U.S. and Israel began a larger set of attacks on Iran, again without consulting any allies or Congress.  This time Iran responded, attacking regional fossil fuel infrastructures and military installations.  More significantly, they closed the Strait of Hormuz.

             Despite this being totally expected, the president had no effective response.  Ten weeks on, global trade is still disrupted, continuing to get worse the longer the blockage lasts.  Americans are still relatively sheltered, but that won't last much longer.  We are at the mercy of one man's ego, which thrives on chaos and anger.  

 

Meanwhile

                                                                                         written 26 April, 2026

                                                                                        published 3 May, 2026

            

            Into the ninth week of war, the world holds its breath.  The president extended the ceasefire indefinitely, but each side has fired upon opposing ships, so the Strait is still effectively closed.  The Pentagon says it could take six months to clear the mines, and Iran is laying new ones.  Oil futures edge higher, gasoline and diesel prices increase slowly, while stocks are holding steady.     

            The president says he "feels no pressure" and has "all the time in the world."  Claiming once again that progress is being made, he is sending his best team to negotiate a deal, his son-in-law, hedge fund manager Kushner, and real estate developer Witkoff.  Everyone hopes new talks will resolve the issue before actual shortages begin crashing economies across the planet.  

            However, Iran refuses to attend, stating its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it calls "Washington’s excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade.”  

            The talks have been canceled for now, and the Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire seems to be failing.

            Meanwhile, the war is not the only situation getting worse. 

            The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a UK chartered professional body for actuaries, which Wikipedia defines as "professionals with advanced mathematical skills who deal with the measurement and management of risk and uncertainty."  These people look at the real world to price catastrophic risk, providing the foundation for all insurance and businesses.

             "The Oldest Debt", by Mary Geddry, using IFoA data, states that while the war distracts attention, "the planet’s climate system, the living, breathing infrastructure upon which every human right, every economy, every civilization, and every future generation depends, is moving toward thresholds that no election can reverse and no military can defend against.  This is not a prediction.  It is already happening."

            "The physics of climate change do not respond to election cycles, diplomatic communiqués, or quarterly earnings reports. They respond to the laws of thermodynamics. And the thermodynamics are not negotiating."

            The planet is measurably warmer, due to the increased insulating effect of adding more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  The additional energy is equivalent to 1,000 nuclear explosions every second for the last 50 years.  Think about that for a minute.

            Most of that added energy has warmed the oceans.  Across the planet, the warmer ocean is killing coral reefs, the foundation of sea life.  New diseases thrive.  One of which killed the Sunflower Sea Stars, allowing the Purple Urchin population explosion, which ate 95 precent of the coastal kelp.  We see this locally.  It is not in the future, but already here.

            The rest of the added energy heats the atmosphere, causing droughts and heatwaves.  Humans can't survive when temperatures are too high.  We produce heat internally and have to shed the excess when needed.  When that isn't possible, we cook ourselves to death.

            In the last few years, parts of the planet have become lethal at times.  In the summer of 2023, Phoenix, Arizona had a full month over 100°F, and 645 people died.  Many had air conditioning, which failed under the heat stress.  In June, 2024, temperatures in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, hit 125°F, and 1,301 people died.  Similar lethal heat waves have occurred in Thailand, Pakistan, and Spain.  This is not the future, but is already happening.   

            The war in Iran is about control of oil.  Geddry writes, "In the first fourteen days of the Iran conflict, the greenhouse gas emissions exceeded what Iceland produces in an entire year.  We are burning fossil fuels to fight over fossil fuels in a region being rendered uninhabitable by the burning of fossil fuels.  If there is a more perfect illustration of self-destruction, it has yet to present itself."

            "There is a particular kind of moral failure that is worse than ignorance: the people and institutions that know exactly what is happening, and have chosen to treat it as a business opportunity."  This includes the industries and banks that profit from the fossil fuels, and the politicians they buy, who deny the climate crisis is even happening.

            But the world has already changed.  The International Energy Agency says war has structurally reduced oil demand and increased interest in renewable energy everywhere.  The shifts in global shipping and economic patterns won't change back.  Republican economic corruption and political incompetence have destroyed America's global reputation, and may cripple the party for years.  We live in interesting times!

 

Still Unresolved

                                                                                         written 19 April, 2026

                                                                                     published 26 April, 2026

      

            Chaotic current events are unfolding so quickly anything written is out of date even a few days later.  It will be more than a week before this article gets into print and the world may have changed significantly in the interval.

            Thursday, Israel and Lebanon announced a 10-day truce, which had been demanded by Iran.  Friday morning, the president announced Iran agreed to open the Strait to free flow of traffic.  Stocks jumped higher, and future oil prices dropped, reacting as if we will now return to levels before he started this war.

            Diplomacy requires conversation between equals, but the president can only act as a bully, a superior demanding obedience.  So, he reversed himself, announcing the US blockade of Iranian shipping would stay in place until there is a final deal.  That evening, Iran declared the blockade violated the ceasefire, and on Saturday, fired shots to effectively keep the Strait closed.  The cease fire will expire in a few days although new talks are scheduled.  Meanwhile, more US troops are in transit to the region.  Now entering the eighth week, this war is a long way from being settled, even though the president has said "it is over" more than 12 times already.

            The war is a matter of applying pain.  The US has killed the top layers of Iranian leadership and destroyed much of their military infrastructure.  Iran has blocked the Strait, threatening the economic stability of the entire planet.  Each side is betting the pain applied will force the other to capitulate.  The president thought a short sharp blow would be sufficient and hadn't considered any alternative.  Since that failed, he is now floundering.

            Although some oil is being transported by pipelines, blocking the Strait removed 10 percent from the global market, raising prices and creating shortages.  Spot prices for delivering actual oil are $50 percent above future prices.  Diesel is particularly sensitive and in more universal demand than gasoline, underpinning long haul trucking, rail and marine transport, construction, agriculture and industrial activities everywhere.  Europe may run out of jet fuel in a few more weeks. 

            Chevron regular in Santa Rosa is currently $6.65/gallon, and diesel is $8.65/gallon.  The president minimized this, claiming these prices are "not too high" and they will drop "very quickly" to pre-war levels.  In contrast, people who actually know about these things suggest it will be months, even years, before we get back to pre-war prices.  Regional oil and gas facilities have suffered over $60B in damages, and even the undamaged oil fields, which have been shut down during the war, will take time before production returns to previous levels.  

            Whatever the eventual war outcome, several shifts are already occurring at home and abroad.  Yet another war for oil in the Middle East has sharpened the world's intention to construct alternate forms of energy.  The economic wisdom of that path is being added to the climate imperative. 

            China seems to be the clear winner so far.  Over the last decade, they have prioritized renewable energy manufacturing and made progress reducing their dependance on fossil fuels, so their economy has taken a smaller hit.  Their export of affordable EV's has jumped 50 percent in the last month.  China has offered to install over 100 microgrid systems in Cuba, helping them respond to price increases and the US blockade there. 

            In contrast, our climate denying president is committing the US to more natural gas and nuclear power.  One is a potent climate killer and the other is the most expensive power on the grid.  Neither one can be installed quickly.  China has bet on the unfolding future and the US is mired in the vanished past.

            Reckless actions and statements by the president have alienated our allies, destroying trust America built over decades.  He even picked a fight with the Pope.  The dollar is no longer the universal commercial currency, a lost benefit for the US.  Former supporters feel betrayed.   

            Wanting a quick resolution to the war, with little concern for reality, he says whatever he believes, as if that makes it true, while Iran refutes him within a few hours.  His limitations as a person, let alone a leader, become more apparent every time he speaks.  This truth is reflected in his sinking poll numbers, and the Democratic victories in special elections.  

            Because this man represents us, we all suffer the consequences of his actions.  Let's hope America endures long enough to change that.

 

Violent Religious Fanatics

                                                                                         written 12 April, 2026

                                                                                     published 19 April, 2026

            

            It was another week of turbulent changes.  The president committed possible war crimes, threatening to destroy the entire Persian civilization, giving a Tuesday evening deadline to obey his demands.  He relented at the last hour, issuing a 2-week ceasefire, declaring progress on a deal.  His supporters claimed resounding victory by their God appointed savior.  The price of oil dipped, and the Dow rose.

            However, Iran still controls the Strait, shipping traffic is still less than 5 percent of prewar levels, and diesel in Healdsburg costs over $8 per gallon.  Actual shortages have begun in some countries.  Americans have paid an extra $17B in fuel costs, on top of the $50B for the actual war (so far).  Yet there is no money for health care.  There are major disagreements about what the "deal" is, so the chaos will continue.

            Our Secretary of War has been vocal that this war is, in part, a holy crusade by righteous Christians to remove the evil of Islamic terrorism.  He is even more specific that Evangelical Protestants are the chosen few, by excluding Catholics from Easter military prayer services.  The president has invoked God in his regular social media blasts.

            Everyone on the planet has a concept of "God".  Even the 15 percent who are atheists hold some concept of what it is they deny.  Most of humanity follows one of over 4,000 different religious sects, generally falling into five major groupings:  Judaism, Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, and Buddhism.  

             It is important to distinguish between spirituality and religion.  A person can be spiritual without being religious.  Spirituality can be understood as the personal experience and exploration of God, while religions are the manmade organizations that have grown up around a spiritual person.  Religious sects have sets of rules, holy scripture, particular to their group.  These endure throughout time because people have experiences they are trying to communicate.  Even though the original words might have been inspired, these are all concepts, not the actual spiritual experience.  As the Buddhists say, the finger that points to the moon is not the moon.

            Sects within the same religion can have different interpretations of the same words.  There are fundamentalists within each sect who believe their words to be the only sacred truth.  Rigid within their scriptural concepts, religious fanatics will go to war, not only against other religions, but even against others of their same basic religious orientation.  For example, the Sunni/Shia split in Islam and the Catholic/Protestant split in Christianity have perpetrated untold deaths for centuries, with everyone convinced that "God is on their side".

            In contrast, some sects refuse to even apply a word to God, understanding such a limited concept can't possibly encompass the totality of spiritual reality, and only leads people astray.  There are mystics in every faith who understand the limitations of word concepts, treating them as metaphors, allowing them to investigate the experience at the core of every faith.   

            Transcending the differences between sects and religions, there are God concepts common to them all: Transcendence (an ultimate reality beyond ordinary physical existence), Benevolence (fundamentally good), Omniscience (all-knowing), Omnipotence (all-powerful), and Omnipresent (present everywhere).  Such wide spread commonality indicates the experience behind the words is significant and meaningful.  

            A version of the Golden Rule is also common to them all, pointing to a unity reality where separation is just a relative, limited perception.  From this unity perspective, hating anyone is hating yourself.  Killing anyone is killing yourself.  This makes a violent religious fanatic a self-loathing suicidal lunatic, no matter what religion they profess.

            It is easy to see that violent Islamic fanatics who kill in the name of their God are evil terrorists.  It is perhaps harder to see that violent Christians fanatics who kill in the name of their God are evil terrorists as well.  

            In "A New Earth", Eckhart Tolle says "There is only one perpetrator of evil on the planet: human unconsciousness.  That realization is true forgiveness.  With forgiveness, your victim identity dissolves, and your true power emerges -- the power Presence.  Instead of blaming the darkness, you bring in the light."

            I don't identify as a Christian, as that religion has spread too much hate for centuries.  But I am inspired by Christ, who taught that there are two primary commandments:  Love God, and Love Each Other.  To my mind, anyone who hates or kills, and claims they are Christian, has completely missed the mark, the true meaning of sin. 

 

Painted Into A Corner

                                                                                           written 5 April, 2026

                                                                                     published 12 April, 2026

 

            On April Fool's Day, the president gave a speech about his war of choice in Iran.  It was mercifully short, running only 19 minutes.  He repeated many of his previous statements, with little news.  

            Iran was about to attack us with nuclear tipped missiles.  Nobody had the courage to remove Iran before him.  Our military has totally demolished Iran's military capacity.  We have already won, but need maybe another month to finish the project.  He may attack on the ground, or he may just declare victory and leave.  We don't need to open the Straits of Hormuz, because we have more oil than anyone else.  The Straits will open by themselves, and gasoline prices will quickly return to normal.  

            He clearly wants this to be over, but wishing doesn't make it so.  He has always been delusional.  In his first term he promised Covid would quickly go away by itself.  

            Even though we outspend Iran 1,000 to 1, they recently shot down 2 US jets and still attack shipping in the Straits, allowing only 5 percent of the transits relative to pre-war levels.  This poorly planned war has abruptly removed almost one fifth of the fossil fuels from the market, affecting the entire world.

            As I write, a gallon of Chevron regular in Ukiah is now $5.69, and diesel is $7.65.  Jet fuel has doubled in cost, forcing drastic reductions in flights.  United Airlines is expecting these high prices to last through 2027.  But these increases are based on expected future costs, not yet reflecting actual lack of crude oil availability.

            Since most oil takes as much as a month in transit, real shortages are only now beginning to hit the global economy, and prices could soon jump much higher.  Some countries are already cutting back their economies to survive on what fuel is available.  The longer this closure lasts, the worse it will all get.  

            The president was correct when he stated the US produces more oil than any other country, 13.6 million barrels a day.  But he lied when he said we are energy independent, because we consume 20 million barrels per day.  Much of our current production is fracked oil, which is too light to refine into diesel without adding imported heavy oil.  Furthermore, our refineries are tailored to the historic blends in place when they were built, and can't be easily shifted to refine a different mix of fuels.  As a result, we are required to import significant amounts of oil, even if little of that oil comes through the Straits of Hormuz.

            However, it is foolish to think that domestic oil will only be sold to domestic buyers.  Oil companies are capitalists, serving shareholders, not consumers, and will sell to the highest bidders, no matter where they live.

            Fossil fuels are not the only essential materials being choked off with the Straits closed.  Global supplies of phosphate, helium, and ammonia are down 30 percent, with sulfur down 45 percent and urea down 50 percent.  These are critical for production of plastics, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and fertilizer for food.  Domestic agriculture is being hit by excessive costs due to tariffs, rising prices on diesel, and now expensive fertilizer, yet the price of their product is fixed.  Iran holds an asymmetrical advantage. 

            There are several energy alternatives, but none can respond rapidly enough to supply the abrupt shortfall.  Conventional nuclear takes a decade.  Small modular reactors don't actually exist yet.  New oil, natural gas, and coal production also take time.  Solar is the quickest, but even that is inadequate.  Reducing consumption by reducing the size of the economy (recession), seems to be the only option.

            With arrogance and contempt for opinions other than his own, the president has painted himself into a corner, and risks crashing the global economy.  His options are very limited.  

            Expanding the war with "boots on the ground" will be expensive, bloody, of unknown duration, massively unpopular, with unexpected consequences.  Declaring victory and walking away with the Straits still closed leaves the global economy in shambles and destroys America's reputation.  Who will trust such a short-sighted leader?  He could surrender and admit his mistake, taking responsibility for what he did, which would be a first for a world superpower.  But his fragile ego won't allow him to take this path.     

            Perhaps enough Republicans will find the courage to remove him as incompetent before he destroys everything.  What are the odds?