written 29 March, 2026
published 5 April, 2026
I became aware of the climate crisis 30 years ago. Science has blind spots, but I believe it is a relevant portrayal of physical reality. The computer I use to write this and the electricity I take for granted, validate the scientific perspective. Science says we are cooking our planet. Our president says the climate crisis is a hoax. In my opinion, he is a liar and/or a fool.
But to give him credit, he is a charming huckster, telling people what they want to hear, unrestrained by reality. This extends well past his core MAGA minority. One evening, stumped by Iran's continued resistance, the president threated to destroy their civilian infrastructure (a war crime), if they didn't open the Straits to shipping within 48 hours. The price of oil jumped and the stock market dropped, because people believed he would escalate the war.
A few hours before the deadline expired, the president relented, extending his ultimatum for five more days, stating that Iran had begun negotiations and "reached significant agreements". The price of oil dropped and stocks went up, because people believed him. It is important to note that millions of dollars were made on this swing, indicating insider trading. However, within a few minutes of the president's "agreement" announcement, Iran said there were no such talks.
For the moment, the US plans to hold off attacking for another 10 days. This is probably true, not because negotiations are happening, but perhaps because the additional troops moving into the area are still in transit.
Speculation about what, where, and the duration of a US ground attack are all over the place. But history and experienced voices suggest it won't be quick or bloodless, and could expand the war uncontrollably. Meanwhile, now into the second month, shipping through the Straits is just a fraction of the former volume.
Much like the boy who cried "wolf", people are finally beginning to distrust the president. Once a person is recognized as a liar, they begin to lose power. The stock market has now continued to drop, the price of oil has begun to climb again, and retail gasoline and diesel prices keep inching higher every week.
One relatively unmentioned consequence of this war is the impact on the AI building frenzy. Manufacture of the advanced microchips essential for this boom involve over 1,000 different companies, in 70 different countries. Critical materials are now blocked, and shipping cost for everything are now greater, making the delivery and economics much more uncertain.
Even before the war, the AI investment boom was getting shacky because investors want more immediate financial return on their massive investments. To support the AI fantasy, data centers need to be built more rapidly than construction of energy systems can supply. The concerns about the enormous energy AI centers require will increase now that fossil fuels are more expensive.
The AI economic frenzy is an elaborate house of cards, carefully balanced on assumptions of stability and predictability, which has just been hit by the reality shock of war. When the AI financial bubble pops, the stock market will react much like when the 2007 housing bubble popped. This could happen before the November elections.
Another consequence of this war is the shift away from oil trades denominated in US dollars, which has been the industry standard for over 50 years, an enormous economic advantage for the US. However, our risky debt structure, our recent erratic political actions, and the slow change in global power dynamics, make the dollar less attractive, and it is being replaced by the Chinese yuan. This probably won't be a complete shift, but the US monopoly may have already been broken.
While the war has captivated the news cycle the climate crisis hasn't gone away just because the president said so. Atmospheric CO2 content is now 431ppm, a more than 50 percent increase from preindustrial times. This size shift moved us from the last ice age to the present interglacial period when human civilization developed. But the current shift is happening 10 time faster.
We had June heat in March, melting the snow, drying the land, setting the stage for a busy fire summer. Hawaii has been flooded. The mid-west is on fire. The northeast is buried in snow. Corpus Christi, Texas is running out of water, and Phoenix, Arizona is getting close.
The climate crisis is not a hoax, but our stable genius president is.