written 21 June, 2026
for 28 June, 2026
Decades ago, when one of my nephews was a very little boy, he played with matches on his bed, setting it on fire. Being immature, his response was to quietly close the door, returning to the living room to watch TV with his folks. Eventually, the adults realized the house was on fire and evacuated everyone in time, but their home was gutted.
Our president is just as irresponsible. He unilaterally welched on an international agreement in 2018, when he withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran. Eight years later, after four months of war and economic stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, the president announced a new "deal" had been reached. Claiming it was almost total surrender by Iran, the president promised the Strait of Hormuz is open again, oil would immediately begin to flow again, and gas prices will drop very soon. Just in time for the mid-term elections.
Stocks values rose and oil prices dropped upon this joyous news, as the global economy believed we have avoided an energy shock not seen in half a century. Even the president acknowledged this concern as justification for the "deal".
After days of secrecy surround the details, last week the world saw the actual document: a two page, 14 point Memorandum Of Understanding, with further negotiations expected to follow.
There is to be a regional ceasefire. The U.S. promises to immediately remove their blockade of Iranian shipping. Iran promises to allow toll-free shipping through the Strait for the next 60 days, but expects to collect tolls after that. Iran gets some financial rewards immediately upon signing, and the promise of removal of all economic sanctions and hundreds of billions in rebuilding funds. There is no mention of regime change, Iranian missiles, or proxy groups. The entire uranium issue is pushed down the road. This is a world away from the president's boasts early in the war, yet he is claiming victory. His style is to take credit, but never any responsibility.
The "deal" expects Israel and Lebanon to end all fighting, yet Israel wasn't involved in the process. Within 24 hours, Hezbollah and Israel had attacked each other again. The Iranians claimed this was a breach of the "deal", withdrawing from further negotiations for the moment. As I write this, the Strait is closed again.
Even assuming the "deal" will eventually hold, experts who know the reality of the world say the flow of oil will not resume immediately. It will be weeks, or even months, before oil shipments return to prewar levels. Clearing the Strait of mines will take time. Moving ships stalled in the Persian Gulf for four months will take time. Restoring the production facilities that have been war damaged or shut down during the stalemate will take time. Restoring confidence in the shipping insurance industry will take time. Meanwhile, the world is living on rapidly depleting stored oil reserves.
Among the kindest responses to the "deal" were concerns that it is far from a final agreement. Critics of this "deal", many of them Republicans, say this is a surrender by the U.S. to Iran. The London School of Economics reported, "there is a relative consensus worldwide, even in the U.S., that Iran won the war and President Trump lost the war."
In 2015, the nuclear agreement was working, as verified by international inspectors. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz was free flowing. We now have no nuclear deal. Iran knows the U.S. won't honor treaties. The Strait is under Iranian economic control. All this "gain" at the cost of almost ten thousand lives, and over $130 billion dollars.
But people still believe the president, whatever insanity he spouts.
My primary issue is the changing climate. I trust the science. The president, by his own admission, doesn't feel secure around people smarter than himself, which explains the cast of characters in his administration. It also explains his complete denial of the climate crisis, and his war on science. He believes that if nobody knows what is going on, he is safe.
Since I know he lies about the climate, I distrust most of what he says. His claims about the Iran war are more of the same. But now people close to him, or who expected him to enrich them, are losing trust. His only loyalty is to himself. Not to them. Not to this country. He is not a leader, but a dangerous reality TV character.