Money In Politics

                                                                                     written 4 October, 2026

                                                                               published 11 October, 2026

 

            Money distorts American politics.  

            At the personal level, living costs are affected by political actions, which then affects who gets re-elected.  Prices today are dominated by the war on Iran, which was supposed to last just a few weeks, but is entering the 8th month with no end in sight.  As a direct result, the strait of Hormuz, a vital global trade route for fossil fuels and other essential goods, is now blockaded, with only 16 percent of prewar levels passing daily.

            Domestic wholesale oil prices have increased 45 percent from prewar levels, and domestic diesel is up 72 percent.  Retail prices have followed.  As I write this, Chevron in Ukiah sells regular for $6.45/gal. and diesel for $8.49/gal.  These sudden cost increases have adversely impacted everyone.  

            In addition, the president's erratic tariffs have also increased costs on most goods and eroded trust between the U.S. and our trading partners.  Interest rates have increased, raising borrowing costs.  As a result, recent polls say just 17 percent of the voters support how the president is handling the economy.  

            Money can also be generated by corruption of a political office.  The presidential salary is $400,000 per year.  But this president, in his second term, using his social media and crypto currency ventures, leveraged the power of his office to increase his personal wealth by $4.1 billion, the equivalent of $1.2 million dollars an hour, assuming a 40-hour work week.  

            Rather than spend any of his own money, or even some of his $400 million political war chest, MAGA Inc., the president spent $20 million of tax payer money on purported "public service announcements", which only supported himself. 

            The most common example of money in politics are funds raised for campaign costs.  Over a century ago, concern about undue influence by monied interests was written into law in the form of strict disclosure requirements and limitations on contributions.  Over time, monied interests slowly chipped away at these limitations, increasing the cost of every election cycle.  As the drive to raise money for campaigns became more intense and all consuming, legislators spent less time doing their elected job, and more time fundraising.  

            By 2010, the Republican majority on the Supreme Court decided 5-4 that money is a form of speech, so limiting campaign contributions is a violation of Free Speech, opening the doors to unlimited campaign spending.  But money is actually just an amplifier, allowing some people to shout down everyone else.

            The presidential campaign in 2008 cost $2.4 billion, which quickly rose to $16 billion by 2024, more than 4 times the rate of inflation.  One sixth of all funds came as "dark money", now legal, with the donors undisclosed.  In the last election, a few hundred billionaires contribute almost 20 percent of all the campaign funds, about 100,000 times the average contribution from the other 4 million donors.  

            This economic distortion corrodes the reality of our democracy.  The rational is that those with money are somehow better at governing.  But the core of business is exclusive gain, while the ideal of democratic governing is inclusive, improving the lives of everyone in our society.  A small example of this in currently playing out in the Ukiah City Council election, where a business group is supporting a trio of challengers.  But successful business skills are no indicator of good governing skills.   

            Other countries have addressed this corrosive impact of money.  For example, the UK has strict limits on individual donations.   Every candidate has defined public funds, radio, and TV time allotted.  This allows for discussion on policies and ideas, rather than a contest of who can flood the voters the most.  

            With the U.S. so dominated by money, it risks a social collapse as the government drifts away from the actual needs of the populace.  While the candidate that spends the most often wins, voter enthusiasm can't be discounted.  As campaign expenses increase, the mailing and ad inundation hits overload, becoming less effective.  When the message presented is in conflict with the voter's direct experience, it becomes less effective.  This is where having actual grass roots support makes a difference.

            The political consequences of our current situation may become apparent in the next election.  Our current political distortion can't last, because economic exclusive gain is in conflict with the fundamental inclusivity of reality.  The hope is the destruction won't be too extreme, and that we can get our government back in shape.  Please vote!

 

AI As Metaphor

                                                                               written 27 September, 2026

                                                                                 published 4 October, 2026

            The power of Artificial Intelligence (AI) stems from the scale of the computers involved, their calculation rate, and their speed of connectivity.  The scale is already about the same as the neural complexity of the human brain, and growing.  The calculation rate is a million trillion times faster than human thought, and they connect 1,000 times faster than human neurons.  Despite these apparent advantages, they are inherently limited.

            The human brain has two hemispheres which process information quite differently.  The left hemisphere, the seat of the ego, processes by linear sequence, discerning differences, and is associated with logic, analytical thinking, concepts, and language processing.  The right hemisphere, the channel for inspiration, synthesizes relationships simultaneously, and is linked with creativity, intuition, and holistic thinking.   Both hemispheres, working together, create our experience of the world.

            AI is only logical intelligence, contrasted to emotional and spiritual intelligence.  Logic has definable rules, essential for a computer.  But logic is based on assumptions, which are axiomatically accepted as valid, and can never be examined by the logic based on those assumptions.  

            AI is trained on all of existing human knowledge, primarily inputted as words, which are symbolic concepts.  Even the visual inputs are described by more words.  This means the entire foundation of AI knowledge is only conceptual, without the human balance of experiential knowledge.  For example, no matter how many conceptual word descriptions one reads about the pain of touching a hot stove, the actual experience is fundamentally different, giving greater understanding to the concept.

            Furthermore, most of what has been written throughout history has been written by men.  By excluding the perspective of half of humanity, written human knowledge is biased.  Given AI's limited base of input knowledge, it is no surprise it acts like a malignant narcissistic ego, inclined toward self-preservation and domination, by lying and cheating.

            This bias is accentuated by the economic framework that builds AI.  AI capacity is increasing exponentially. The next goal, coming soon, is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) which will be able to replicate and improve itself without human interaction.  Boosters suggest AGI will be more powerful than all of existing human technology combined, revolutionizing everything.  Detractors fear AGI will cause human extinction, perhaps within a few years.  Those in the middle insist AGI can help humanity if it can be safely aligned with human goals.

            Unfortunately, building in safety (if even possible) takes time, but in the competition to be first, making trillions in profit, and controlling the planet, it is highly unlikely that safety will prevail.  This is a race off the edge of a cliff, bringing all of humanity along for the ride.

            While American proprietary AI systems currently lead the planet, none have yet produced a profitable product, despite hundreds of billions invested.  Chinese systems are almost as capable, but use 90 percent less energy and are open source.  This threat to U.S. dominance, combined with the economic instability of our war and tariffs, has generated warnings of an AI bubble. 

            Life can be viewed as a metaphor, having deeper significance, the same way a dream can be understood to mean more than the remembered specifics.  Humanity has arrived at a tipping point.  Patterns that have festered for generations are coming to a head, demanding recognition denied for millennia.   

            Society has been dominated by ego and division as long as history has been written down.  The has resulted in embedded patriarchy, misogyny, racism, economic inequity, religious bigotry, and war.  Unrestrained, late stage, capitalism, based on the egoic belief that "greed is good", is consuming the planet while impoverishing the multitudes and creating a sixth extinction of life on Earth.  

            AI has become a public issue in the last few months, cutting across economic and political lines.  But it is just an emerging symptom of these same systemic problems, with more immediate consequences, resulting from a fundamental perceptual error: the illusion of separation.  This is expressed by economic greed, the desire to dominate everyone else, driving forward without regard for any consequences, denying even the warnings from those working at the heart of the project.  

            We know better than this.  But the AI company leaders are too distracted with winning, and the president sees this is as another left-wing hoax, like affordability and the climate crisis.

            Intelligence is the ability to solve problems.  Wisdom is the ability to know what problems to solve.  AI may appear intelligent, but it is not wise.  Let's vote for wisdom.

Presidential Accomplishments

                                                                               written 20 September, 2026

                                                                           published 27 September, 2026

 

            It's getting harder for our embattled president.  His Supreme Court nixed his latest effort to kill mail in voting, and the midterm elections are coming in a few more weeks.  

His list of hoaxes keeps growing: lost 2020 election, climate crisis, affordability crisis, and now AI dangers.  All fake news.  

            In the real world, the impact of his war of choice keeps getting worse.  Last week, in Santa Rosa, Chevron regular cost $6.97/gal. and diesel cost $8.99/gal.  Actual shortages have begun to appear.  Costco has limited purchase of motor oil, and fossil fuel executives are warning of impending price spikes.  Laser focused, the president responded by throwing a hissy fit, threatening to demolish the Kennedy Performing Arts Center if he can't have his name on the building.

            But even the devil does God's work.  The president, although increasingly deranged, has three important accomplishments, none of them intentional.

            First, he has demonstrated the corrupt incompetence of the unrestrained ego, showing the entire world the destructive down side of such behavior.  He also demonstrates the corollary failure of unregulated capitalism.  Perhaps this election will provide such a resounding rebuke that we can take steps to avoid similar disasters in the future. 

            Second, he has accelerated the global shift to renewable energy.  His egotistic war of choice, and the resulting constraint on shipping thorough the strait of Hormuz, now amplified by the conflict at the southern end of the Red Sea, has shown the world the vulnerability of fossil fueled energy.  This is no longer just an emerging climate issue, but is immanent, and overwhelmingly economic.  Global recession is looming at the same time prices are rising.

            Economies everywhere see the future is renewable energy.  Although change was already happening, the war accelerated everything.  Some of the largest growth in installed solar is occurring in Africa, Pakistan, and India.  Solar with storage is transformative because it is effective from the household level up to grid scale installations, can be installed very quickly, is the cheapest power to construct, and the hardware to collect and store the power is fixed cost while the energy is free.  

            Currently, the global winner is China, the leader in producing solar panels, batteries, and EV transportation of all kinds.  China produces 70 percent of all EV's, while the US produces just 5 percent.  Last year, China produced a gigawatt of solar panels every day, which increased significantly since the war began. 

            Unfortunately, America is being left behind.  Our climate denying president is not only trying to kill every domestic renewable project, but is actually making matter worse, destroying appliance efficiency standards and air quality rules.  Coal and natural gas projects are being fast tracked, and hundreds of billions are being poured into fusion systems that don't actually exist yet, or modular nuclear designs that won't be commercial relevant for decades. Meanwhile, the energy needs are here today.

            Third, he is destroying America's standing in the world.  This can only be seen as an accomplishment when viewed from a global perspective.  At the end of WWII, America had the only intact industrial base, massive domestic oil reserves, and the only nuclear bomb.  From this position of power, we defined the new world order and dominated the planet.  We still consume 6 times our share of global energy and resources.  Our military has 800 bases in other countries, more than twice as many as all the other countries combined.  

            American companies defined and dominated global economic systems, forcing everyone else to operate by our rules.  We put profit over people, and other countries have had to bear the brunt of that, even if their cultures prioritize other values.  Because the dollar was the primary unit of global trade, we could run deficits with an impunity not available to any other country.  

            But the world has changed.  Nine countries now have nuclear weapons.  Our best oil reserves are depleted.  Manufacturing capacity is everywhere and many are newer and more efficient.  Yet we still act like the only player in town, calling all the shots.

            The president has squandered our military assets in this war, decimated essential governmental departments, placed incompetents in positions of power, destroyed our trade relations with our allies through capricious tariffs, and alienated leaders with immature ego trips.  In response, the world is reorganizing around us.  We will have to become humble, acting like part of the world, not the ruler.  This will be good for us as a nation.

            If we survive.  

 

The Growing Climate Crisis

                                                                               written 13 September, 2026

                                                                           published 20 September, 2026

 

            One of the basic flaws in our economy is the assumption of absolute separation of the parts, in a world that is fundamentally whole.  The damage a company creates while pursuing profit is not their responsibility unless proved in a court of law.  Even then, all they have to do is declare bankruptcy and their issue is resolved.  But the actual damages endure, and someone winds up paying those costs, usually having gained little to no profit in the original deal.  This is fundamentally inequitable and socially destructive. 

            A good example was presented by Dan Walters, a syndicated columnist in the Ukiah Daily Journal, writing recently about California's wildfire liability problem.  The last decade saw a sharp increase in massive, economically costly wildfires, many started by malfunctions in electric utility infrastructure.  The fundamental question is: who pays? 

            Burned out homeowners need funds as soon as possible to begin rebuilding what has been destroyed.  Electrical utilities are reluctant to pay complete restitution because it affects their share value, and they must remain profitable to continue providing socially essential electricity.  Being a regulated monopoly, they can't raise rates without State approval, and if rates are too high the power becomes unaffordable, something the State wants to avoid.  

            Insurance companies face a similar problem.  Destructive fires are happening faster than current rates can support.  They are also State regulated and need approval for rate increases.  If they can't raise rates enough to remain profitable, the companies stop writing policies and perhaps leave the state entirely.  Again, something the State wants to avoid.  

            Any real solution must examine WHY fire damages are increasing: the growing climate crisis.  

            The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is now 50 percent greater than in preindustrial times 250 years ago, primarily due to fossil fuel combustion.  An increase of similar magnitude ended the last ice age, melting ice sheets several miles thick, creating the recent 12,000 year interglacial period that allowed the explosion of human civilization.  

            Believe it or not, the climate today is not the same as when this country was founded.  Human activity has changed the composition of our atmospheric chemistry, creating a world that is measurably hotter.  This produces extended heat waves, longer droughts, more extreme flooding, and stronger storms, as the planet struggles to distribute the increased atmospheric heating.

            In the last 50 years, global climate disaster costs have increased by a factor of ten even after accounting for inflation, now $4 trillion in the last decade, and planetary heating is accelerating.  

            The recent disaster in Nepal is the result of glacier melt caused by increasing temperatures in the Himalayas.  California's fire insurance problem is the result of increasing heat and drought.  Prolonged drought has reduced water flow in the Colorado River, threatening California agriculture and power production from the dams on the Colorado.  The oceans capture 90 percent of the added heat, and are hotter now than ever in recorded history.  This has killed 90 percent of coastal kelp, and impacted 80 percent of the world's coral, destroying the fisheries they support.  Europe is warming faster than any other continent, and heat killed 175,000 people there this year.

            Because the climate changes are slow, and our attention is dominated by day-to-day issues, we don't often see the problem directly.  Climate change is inexorable, like termites eating the foundation of our home, or rust destroying the structural integrity of a bridge.  But there are tipping points in any system, both in nature as well as in our consciousness.  At some point, it's too hot outside, or some disaster hits, changing our awareness.  

            The solution to the climate crisis is clear: stop adding to the problem by changing our energy system, and begin removing some of the existing carbon dioxide to get back to an atmospheric composition that we know supports human civilization.  This won't be simple, because we need to change decades of invested infrastructure.  But the knowledge exists.  The hardware exists.   What is needed is the political will.

            Fortunately, people are beginning to recognize the climate crisis is killing us and our economy.  All over the world, societies are being forced to adapt to what is happening, beginning to change the way they do business.  They see the profit driven, fossil fuel funded climate deniers are liars, and are refusing to support politicians who spouts those lies.

            America is currently a laggard in this movement.  Is this the election where that change happens here?

 

The Coming Implosion

                                                                                 written 6 September, 2026

                                                                           published 13 September, 2026

 

            On June 18th, 2023, the composite submarine Titan, owned and built by OceanGate, was diving to visit the Titanic, with 5 people on board.  Three quarters of the way to the bottom, it imploded, killing everyone in milliseconds, the logical consequence of an unrestrained ego in denial of reality.

            The Titan was a new design for a deep diving submersible, with a carbon fiber body and titanium ends caps, intended to be cheaper to fabricate and lighter to ship, with the specific goal of taking paying passengers to view the Titanic.          

            Stockton Rush, CEO of OceanGate and the designer of Titan, was born into ancestral wealth.  A creative engineer, he was an arrogant narcissist, unwilling to listen to dissent, firing those who questioned his design.  By operating only in international waters, Rush avoided requirements for third-party evaluations or testing of the Titan design.  Despite multiple warnings of risk of failure at depth, he pushed forward.  To his credit, he lived by his decisions, and died in the implosion, along with a guide and three paying passengers.  A subsequent Coast Guard review determined Rush exhibited criminal negligence.

            Our president was also born to wealth, is also an arrogant narcissist, and also refuses to listen to dissent or challenges to his opinions.  He is on record stating he feels uncomfortable around people smarter than himself.  Since becoming the president, he has demonstrated his incompetence over and over.  The war on Iran and our economy is a case in point.  

            In 2015, after years of work under the Obama administration, the nations of the world had forged an agreement to effectively limit Iran's nuclear ambitions.  In exchange for lifting economic sanctions, Iran's enriched uranium was removed, and their nuclear facilities were under constant international inspections.  

            But in 2018, the president declared it a "terrible deal".  Without giving any reasons, or notice to the other participants, he unilaterally canceled the agreement and reimposed sanctions.  By this action, he showed America was untrustworthy, the first of many hits to a reputation that had been decades in the making.  Iran was furious, decided it needed to take care of itself, and began an aggressive nuclear buildup, the fate the world had tried to avoid.  

            At the same time, the president began his tariff war, promising other countries would pay the price, yet everybody else knew Americans would actually pay.  This began the inflationary rise of domestic prices and the deterioration of long-term trade relations with our primary trading partners.

            In his second term, the president purged the government of rational people who actually knew what they were doing, installing layers of incompetent, but loyal, lackeys.  This included gutting established leadership in the branches of the military.  He also redoubled his tariff war, now including the entire globe.  However, world leaders had realized America was no longer a trustworthy partner, and began pushing back with matching tariffs and different trading relationships. 

            As our economy began to stall, the president, seeking a distraction, decided to address the growing Iranian nuclear threat, completely ignoring that he created the problem.  He started the war with little planning and few allies, expecting a quick victory.  Despite the best the U.S. military could throw at it, Iran endured, and then closed the strait of Hormuz, destabilizing the entire global energy market, an outcome everyone knew was possible, except for the president's team.   

            We are now over 6 months into his "excursion", with no end in sight.  Traffic through the strait is one tenth prewar levels, despite what the president says on the nightly news.  The whole world knows that he lies to suit what he wants to have happen, with total disregard for reality.

            The president recently started another round of tariff war with Canada, which responded by cutting off shipment of the heavy crude that we need to refine into diesel, driving prices even higher.  Diesel, which runs most of our economy, is now selling for $7.99/gal. in Ukiah.  But the president prefers to talk about his ballroom.   

            The man is incompetent and increasingly delusional.  Our economic structure is fraying.  The costs of the climate crisis continue to build every month, now undeniably real.  The stock market plateaued a month ago.  Investors are becoming nervous.  The midterms are eight weeks away.  Even Republican politicians are beginning to avoid him.  Like the OceanGate Titan, the system is about to implode.

            The only question is: how many will the president take down with him? 

What If The Grid Crashed?

                                                                                     written 30 August, 2026

                                                                              published 6 September, 2026

 

            On August 18, 2026, the New York Times Magazine published an article by Christopher Cox titled "What If America Went Completely Dark?"  It opened by describing the April, 2013 attack on the PG&E Metcalf substation near San Jose.  In 20 minutes, over 100 shots damaged the cooling systems of 17 large transformers, taking them all off line.  The shooters escaped before police arrived and were never arrested.  PG&E maintained power in the region using their system redundancy, but it took 4 weeks to repair.

            Since then, dozens of similar domestic attacks have occurred.  The most damaging attack came in December, 2022, when 2 substations in North Carolina were struck, creating a regional blackout lasting five days.  Other attacks have been foiled, all involving right wing extremists and neo-Nazi groups.   

            The electrical gird is the largest machine built by humans.  The very high voltages of the transmission system are transformed down to the lower voltage of the community distribution systems at more than 55,000 substations, each with multiple large transformers.  These transformers are unique for each location, constructed by hand, costing as much as $14M, taking years to build.  They are designed to last 40 years, and many are already older than that.  Domestic transformer production supplies only one fifth of our demand.  The rest come from Mexico, South Korea, and China.  

            While the grid is extensive, it is a massively interconnected network.  The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission did a power analysis on the national system and found that knocking out just 10 key substations (about 180 transformers) would black out the entire country.  The damage would take years to be repaired, if ever.  

            The New York Times Magazine article focused on the grid vulnerability to human terrorist activity, accidents, and aging infrastructure.  But those aren't the only sources of concern. 

            Solar flares of electromagnetic energy occur regularly: multiple small one daily, multiple medium ones weekly, and a large one every month, all with little effect.  But very large ones, such as the September, 1859 Carrington event, occurring every few centuries, can be destructive.

            The telegraph system had been installed, creating loops of wires hundreds of miles long.  When electromagnetic energy passes through wire loops, it generates current (the physics behind electrical motors and generators).  The induced current shot sparks for the telegraph keys, and the system functioned without any batteries.  Because the telegraph system was fairly simple and small, damage was limited.

            Today's electrical grid is vastly more complex, with much longer loops of wire, so the induced currents would be larger.  Depending on the size of the flare, and which side of the Earth was facing the sun at the time of arrival, it could damage not just a few substations, but possibly half the planet. 

            Electrical energy is essential for the functioning of all other parts our modern economy.  An Energy Department report about a large grid blackout concluded: “The supply of food, water and fuel would degrade within days. The facile communication of information to the general population would be greatly complicated by the loss of cellphones, internet access and television. The economy would virtually shut down as electronic transactions could no longer be processed. After several days, widespread social unrest and confusion would ensue.”  Definitely an understatement!  

            The failure of multiple transformers is a "black swan" event: relatively low frequency, but very high impact.  This grid vulnerability is a consequence of the historical centralized design where a few large power centers produce electricity which is then shipped over long distances.  A more resilient alternative would add widely distributed modest power production and storage. 

             Individual homes and businesses can already be designed to use the grid normally, yet stand alone when the grid fails.  This is harder for entire communities, because of the regulatory stranglehold of existing utilities like PG&E.  

            Ukiah has the rare advantage of owning our electrical system, controlling what happens "behind the meter", giving us latitude not available anywhere else in Mendocino County.  The goal is not to replace the grid, but to augment the system.  Locally collected power stabilizes costs with free energy and fixed cost hardware.  These systems will help supply our usual power load under normal conditions, but will continue to operate during emergencies.  Despite providing less than our full load, having some power is much better than none at all.  

            Ukiah can become a leader in this field, creating an example of interest everywhere.  The sooner we start, the better.

The AI Bubble

                                                                                     written 23 August, 2026

                                                                                 published 30 August, 2026

 

            Most everyone has now heard about Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the massive data centers required to support it.  

            Boosters believe it is the wave of the future, solving problems previously unsolvable, revolutionizing the economy, with potentially trillions in profit for investors.  AI helps wildfire cameras be more efficient, improves medical diagnostics, has designed new drugs, and even new viruses.  The possibilities are amazing.

            Detractors point to science fiction like the "Terminator", bioterrorism, disinformation, and the potential destruction of the middle class from massive unemployment.  Political deep fakes are getting much better, being created more quickly, destroying trust.  Models have "escaped" their test bed.  AI lies, and writes its own code. 

            Whether for good or ill, data center planning has exploded.  The trillions invested keep the stock market expanding.  Over 2,000 domestic data centers have been proposed.  Believing this will be lucrative, people rush to get in on the fiscal elevator.  The "fear of missing out" is a herd mentality driving an economic feeding frenzy.  But this may be another economic bubble, which could crash like others have before. 

            Putting aside the determination of how AI could help or destroy our economy, the reality of what is required to build and operate these data centers has to be considered.  They demand massive amounts of money, land, cooling water, and electricity.  

             The existing electrical grid is inadequate to supply the sudden increase in power demanded, causing regional power price jumps and degraded grid reliability.  Grid expansion is expensive and time consuming.  Additionally, the large transformers essential to grid nodes, each one uniquely designed for that location, take years to fabricate and deliver.  

            But AI is a rush to be first, and can't afford to wait, so many data centers are now planning energy production systems co-located on their site.  A few are expecting to be fusion powered, although this technology is still at the laboratory level.  Others plan to use small modular reactors, which are still being developed, so cost and longevity are yet to be determined, let alone reliable delivery times.  

            Less speculative plans will use banks of natural gas or diesel generators.  But the natural gas fired turbine wait list is already five years and growing, and the war on Iran has perturbed the global natural gas market.  While domestic natural gas prices are still holding steady, our most productive gas fields are experiencing production declines, and may have peaked.  Domestic diesel prices have risen 50 percent due to the war.  

            The war also has a fiscal impact on data centers.  Middle East fossil fuel production has been very lucrative for decades, and those excess funds have been reinvested in U.S. stocks and bonds, subsidizing our ever-growing national debt.

The war has significantly reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, currently running at 10 percent of prewar levels, so that petro-dollar cash flow has diminished.  In addition, the president's erratic foreign policy has degraded trust in the America dollar, further stressing the funding of our national economy.

             AI is still looking for a profitable product to sell, and most companies have yet to turn a profit, so investors are getting nervous.  Data centers demand an enormous number of expensive, very complex computer chips.  As investment money gets tighter, the chip companies are "loaning" money to the data center developers to keep their industry solvent, further eroding investor confidence.  While more money is required to keep AI development moving, we find the global economy less willing or able to contribute further.  

            Climate driven droughts are increasing, affecting agriculture and power generation.  Data center water demands make things worse.  Public backlash has risen dramatically, cutting across partisan lines, driven by concerns about noise, water, electricity, and economics, forcing about half the proposed data centers to be canceled.

            In addition to these structural hinderances to data centers, the war still has no solution.  The strait is still constrained.  We continue to burn up finite strategic reserves.  The diminished energy capacity of the world has yet to hit with full force, now estimated to arrive in September.  When the issue is no longer just rising prices, but also limited availability, the economy will probably shrink.  At that point, if AI is a bubble, it will likely pop.  With so much of the economy focused on AI, some people think the housing crash of 2007 will become just a preview of coming attractions.

            This could all happen before the midterm elections.  What an interesting time to be alive!