Power To The People (part 3)

                                                                                                           written 20 Mar 2022

                                                                                                       published 27 Mar 2022

 

            Assuming that climate change is real, human induced, and already a problem, and accepting the scientific assessment that we must rapidly decarbonize our economy to have a chance of a habitable planet for our grandchildren, I have been describing what it would take to electrify everything.  Part 1 described the infrastructure needed to produce the extra electricity, and part 2 described the EV charging systems needed to support shifting transportation away from fossils fuels.  One important question is: how much will this cost?  

            But describing the transition cost is like stating that Cincinnati scored 20 points in the Superbowl.  You can't evaluate the information without knowing that Los Angeles scored 23 points.  For a full understanding, we need to know our current energy costs.

            Based on gross global production of coal, oil, and natural gas, multiplied by their average wholesale costs (pre-Russian invasion), the world spends about $4T a year.  The US accounts for 1/4, or $1T.  The retail price of those fuels increases the US costs to about $2.5T a year.  In addition, climate change created 22 cases of extreme weather damage exceeding $1B in 2021, for a total of $450B, certainly an underestimate of the total damage costs.  

            The US is conservatively worth $250T in material and financial assets, with another $150T as a modest worth of our population, for a total value of $400T.  There is a 1:4 risk that within 50 years "business as usual" carbon emissions will destroy the entire economy, giving an annual risk value of $2T.  Adding this annual risk of total collapse to current climate damages costs and current retail costs, we have an annual cost of about $5T for our present energy system, which will certainly increase.  On a per capita basis, the annual Mendocino county energy cost is about $1.3B.

            California has set a goal of reducing emission 5 percent every year, getting us to zero in 20 years.  Parts 1 and 2 described what is needed in the first decade, but let's consider the whole mission.  Because electric transportation is three times more energy efficient than internal combustion, and heat pumps are four times more efficient, we need only triple our electricity production to completely replace fossils fuels.  In Mendocino that would require about 700MW of solar arrays and 2800MWhr of storage, which would cost about $3.5B at today's pricing.

            If almost all the vehicles in Mendocino county were shifted to electricity, we would need about 4600 public chargers, at $15K each, costing another $70M.  There are about 90,000 vehicles in the county, half of which are cars, and 40 percent are vans or light trucks.  Assuming $30K for an EV car and $100K for an EV truck or van, we need $5B.  There are about 33,000 dwellings in the county.  Chargers in every home would require another $70M, and shifting all the home heating, and water heating, to heat pumps would cost a further $600M.

            This rough estimate for complete decarbonization of our transportation and heating rounds up to about $10B, or $500M per year for 20 years.  It is not only cheaper than our current annual energy bill of $1.3B, but uses existing technologies, is not subject to geopolitical upheavals, creates local power resiliency in the face of natural disasters, and provide decades of good local jobs.  Last, but certainly not least, it preserves the possibility of a lasting habitable planet.  With renewable power, once you have the hardware, the energy is free.  That means that the cost is a prepayment for decades of power, so these are good long term investments. 

            But that is still a lot of money, and the sooner we can make this transition, the better.  This solution requires that everyone benefit, no matter what income level, since we all share the same climate fate, with the wealthy having the most to lose.  Low interest loans and subsidies will speed the transition, and retrofitting existing vehicles to electric could reduce costs and help make the switch even more rapid.

            Our capitalist society is not inclined toward long term wholistic thinking and planning, focusing only on shareholder returns rather than an enduring biosphere.  But we have wasted decades in denial, and are being forced to grow up, think big, and act together.  Like it or not, we share a common fate.

 

 

 

Power To The People (part 2)

                                                                                                           written 13 Mar 2022

                                                                                                       published 20 Mar 2022

     

            The price of oil and gasoline has jumped in the last few weeks due to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, highlighting that the supply of oil was already barely able to satisfy global demand.  Since global oil production peaked a few years ago, this will continue to get worse with time.  In addition, global scientists, the Federal government, and the State of California are all calling for a 50 percent reduction in atmospheric carbon emissions by 2030, if we are to have any chance of a habitable climate for our grandchildren.  Reducing fossil fuel demand by increasing energy efficiency, and rapidly shifting our energy economy, is now more essential than ever.  Last week, in part 1, I described what will be needed to achieve this goal, in terms of increased renewable production and storage.  But that is just a start.  

            Transportation produces about half our carbon emissions, and there are over 90,000 vehicles in Mendocino county.  EVs are 3 times more energy efficient than internal combustion engines, reducing emissions and overall energy demand, but will require an extensive charging system.  The basic questions are: what to install, how many to install, and where to place them.

            What to install?

            Most of the EVs on the market today consume about 30KWhr (kilowatt hours) for each 100 miles of travel, and battery capacities for a 250 to 300 mile range are becoming common.  Every year we see more models, with increased affordability and longer range. 

            There are three levels of chargers.  Level 1 is generally 120V(volts)@15A(amps) (1.8KW/hr), which can be plugged into any household outlet.  Level 2 is 240V@30-80A (7.2KW/hr-19.2KW/hr).  Most of the public chargers are level 2, which can also be installed in a home.  Levels 1 and 2 charge through an EV standard plug rated at 80 amps.

            Level 3 is 400-900V@100-400A (40KW/hr-360KW/hr), requiring significant electrical infrastructure, costing 6 to 10 times more to install than a level 2 charger because they handle so much more power, and therefore are usually only public.  Level 3 chargers use a different plug, and the industry standard has not yet been determined.  

            Most level 2 chargers already installed have current capacities averaging 34A (8KW/hr), which is the typical battery charging rate for EVs today, giving about 25 miles of range for each hour of charge.  But charging rates will increase rapidly as EV production matures.  Since EV chargers are a long-term investment, it seems prudent to install only 80A level 2 chargers, providing the maximum current rating of the standard plug.  This will support the newer vehicles as they become available, providing 100 miles of range from a 90 minute charge, without any further upgrades. 

            How many to install? 

            The State of California suggests a ratio of one public charger for every 20 vehicles.  To cut transportation emissions in half by 2030, 45,000 vehicles in Mendocino county will have to shift to electric, requiring 2300 public chargers.  

            Where to place them?  

            Assuming most EV owners will charge at home, the demand for public chargers divides into six categories: transient charging, tourist overnight charging, fleet charging, shopping/socializing charging, work charging, and those with no home charging available.

            Transient charging, supporting long distance travel, is the only situation justifying the more expensive level 3 chargers, providing several hundred miles of further range in a fraction of an hour, and should be located primarily along the 101 corridor.  

            Tourists who come to the county and spend the night should be able to charge at their hotel or motel.  As fleets transition to EVs, overnight charging will be needed, and the same sites could be used to supply workers or customers during the day.  The last three categories are county residents who need to recharge to return home.  Any business where people are likely to spend an hour or more, or where workers park, should plan to have significant parking lot charging.  The downtown shopping areas of each city should have extensive charging opportunities.  

            Places where vehicles are parked should not only have access to charging, but also canopy arrays to collect and store the power, reducing the load on the grid, while maximizing the use of the land.

            Developing such charging infrastructure by 2030 will require coordination between the local utilities, governments at all levels, local businesses, and private financing.

 

 

Power To The People (part 1)

                                                                                                             written 6 Mar 2022

                                                                                                       published 13 Mar 2022

 

            Two of the challenges threatening the foundation of our civilization are climate change and diminishing energy resources.  To preserve a habitable planet, we must reduce atmospheric carbon emissions 50 percent by 2030.  In addition, global oil production peaked in 2018, so demand must decrease faster than declining production to keep oil affordable.  The solution to both is a shift from consuming limited, polluting, energy resources to collecting and storing renewable ones.  Assuming humanity has the political and economic will to respond, what does this significant infrastructure shift require? 

            The present average electricity consumption in Mendocino county is 1400MWhr/day (megawatt hours per day), ranging one third higher in the summer.  Of this, Sonoma Clean Power (SCP) supplies 2/3, Ukiah Municipal supplies 1/5, and PG&E supplies 1/7.  The carbon free portion averages to 83 percent.  In California, electricity production is 1/5 of our energy use, with transportation consuming 2/5, and heating and manufacturing the other 2/5.  Since most of the electricity in our county is already carbon free, further emission cuts will have to come from the 4/5 of the energy economy which is still fossil fuel powered.  Increasing energy efficiency to reduce what is needed is critical, but the electrical industry will still have to double, or even triple, their current production to hit the 2030 target. 

            SCP is investigating expanding production from the Geyser fields in Sonoma and Lake counties, using new geothermal technology which radically reduces water usage and allows greater portions of the heat field to become productive.  Humboldt Bay is developing large offshore wind capacity combined with onshore storage.  Both these projects will generate significant non-carbon baseload power, but will take time to accomplish and require extensive grid upgrades to get that power to market.  Complicating matters, the current grid is already close to maximum capacity, and will need massive investment and time to functionally increase carrying capacity.

            An alternative, which avoids most grid capacity issues, is extensive construction of distributed renewable power systems.  In Mendocino county this would be primarily solar with storage.  If we assume an annual average of 4 watthours production per watt of installed array, producing another 1400MWhr/day would require 350MW (megawatts) of array.  That means adding 44MW a year, for 8 years, within Mendocino county.  Each megawatt array requires an average of 4 acres, requiring 176 acres per year.  But land dedicated to power production is not lost to other uses.  Roof tops and parking lot canopies can be used in urban areas, and many kinds of agricultural uses thrive in the shade under arrays. 

            Solar production peaks around noon, but loads are spread throughout the day, so each array requires storage to help support the load while reducing stress on the grid.  Every array should have storage 4 times the array capacity, distributing the daily output over time.  This local storage allows using the grid to preposition baseload power produced during the night, while the grid load is at a minimum.  These distributed systems can be configured to stand alone as a microgrid, increasing local power resilience during natural disasters.

            Batteries are good for storing day time solar power for night time use, but not for storing summer sun for winter consumption, but the power peaks of summer could be locally converted to hydrogen.  This emerging technology resolves several important limitations of renewable energy: long term energy storage, direct application for heating and industry, shipping and aircraft fuels, and quick refueling times for long haul freight.  

            The two biggest challenges for wide spread hydrogen use today are increasing water electrolyzer efficiencies to produce the hydrogen and storing the result.  Hydrogen can be stored as a compressed gas, a cooled liquid, or converted to an organic liquid like ammonia or methanol.  The hydrogen can be reconverted to electricity through a fuel cell, or used as a combustion fuel.  Local hydrogen production would be a dispatchable load, aiding grid management, and would help the shift from propane or natural gas heating.  Buildings are already being heated by burning hydrogen, and pilot plants using hydrogen in the production of steel and cement, two of the most energy intensive industries, are already operating.  Toyota, Mercedes, and Cummings are working on hydrogen fueled versions of their products.

            This describes the scope of the production and storage requirements for a habitable future.

 

Start With Gratitude

                                                                                                             written 27 Feb 2022

                                                                                                          published 6 Mar 2022

 

            I awakened this morning, grateful to be alive another day.  My body functioned perfectly as I slept.  My heart beat all night long, and my lungs were clear and functional.  My eyes work and see the sun coming in the east window.  None of my joints hurt.  The bed is warm.  Our house is intact, with heat and electricity functioning.  Lynn, my wife, is still alive, and already up and about.  

            I get out of bed, stand on my own two feet, and walk to the bathroom.  We have indoor plumbing.  My bowels function, as the trillions of beings inhabiting my gut are in harmony and thriving.  The toilet flushes, indicating the city sewer functions.  I have hot and cold potable water, indicating the city water system functions.  

            Back in the bedroom, I can get down onto the floor to do my back exercises.  Despite herniating a disk in my lower back 16 years ago, I feel no pain, and my spine is limber.  The carpet is soft.  I can get up off the floor. 

            With abundant choice of warm clothing, I prepare to go outside to meditate, despite the frigid temperature.  The dogs to the south of us are quiet for the moment, and   I hear the birds.  I have a comfortable place to sit.  I am grateful to live during a time when the wisdom of the ages is available to everyone.

            When I finish, I head into the house where there is fresh food in the refrigerator and on the pantry shelves.  I appreciate the larger civilization that allows me access to such variety of food within my local community. 

            Before eating, I give thanks to all the beings that gave their life that I may be nourished.  I give thanks and bless all the water used to grow and process the food.  I give thanks to all the people involved in bringing the food to my table.  I appreciate that a copy of the local paper was delivered to my front sidewalk before I woke up, grateful we still have a local paper.

            I begin to read the news.

            Russia invaded the Ukraine, initiating another war of domination in Europe.  FOX "News", Trump, and some Republican "leaders" are rooting for Putin, spouting Russian propaganda, showing their fundamental disregard for democracy.  But perhaps they are losing the support of their voter base, which is still mostly patriotic.  Postmaster General DeJoy, selected by the Trump appointed Board of Governors of the Postal Service, announced plans to buy 150,000 new gasoline powered postal trucks, ignoring the climate crisis or the impending collapse of oil production.  Real estate prices continue to increase, as does the homeless population.  The conservative Republicans on the Supreme Court plan to gut the Environmental Protection Authority, ban birth control pills, overturn abortion rights, and kill off the remains of the Voter Protection legislation.  The political polarization of the country seems insurmountable, with strong indication Republican leadership wants an autocratic America.

            However, by starting the day with gratitude for the things that create a positive experience in my life, I have built up a conscious "awareness of appreciation", and am more prepared to deal with the larger world, and all the problems, without feeling so overwhelmed or despairing.

            Most people are good.  Most people are kind.  Most people want a peaceful, safe, healthy world for themselves and their children.  The fundamental commonality that unites humanity is much greater than the differences that apparently divide us.  The Golden Rule is found in every spiritual tradition.  However, we have created structures of economic and political power that allow people with some of the worst aspects of humanity to rise to the top, shaping the world in their own twisted images.  This is not new, and has been going on for thousands of years.

            What is new is that we have exhausted the capacity of the planet to support this suicidal lunacy.  Humans are so numerous, and our actions are amplified by such potent technology, that our fantasies of separation can no longer be sustained.  The world is manifestly interconnected.  All of us are being called to look within, to find our best sense of ourselves, and work together to make it manifest.  Start with gratitude for what we already have.  It can all go away in a heartbeat.