written 20 Mar 2022
published 27 Mar 2022
Assuming that climate change is real, human induced, and already a problem, and accepting the scientific assessment that we must rapidly decarbonize our economy to have a chance of a habitable planet for our grandchildren, I have been describing what it would take to electrify everything. Part 1 described the infrastructure needed to produce the extra electricity, and part 2 described the EV charging systems needed to support shifting transportation away from fossils fuels. One important question is: how much will this cost?
But describing the transition cost is like stating that Cincinnati scored 20 points in the Superbowl. You can't evaluate the information without knowing that Los Angeles scored 23 points. For a full understanding, we need to know our current energy costs.
Based on gross global production of coal, oil, and natural gas, multiplied by their average wholesale costs (pre-Russian invasion), the world spends about $4T a year. The US accounts for 1/4, or $1T. The retail price of those fuels increases the US costs to about $2.5T a year. In addition, climate change created 22 cases of extreme weather damage exceeding $1B in 2021, for a total of $450B, certainly an underestimate of the total damage costs.
The US is conservatively worth $250T in material and financial assets, with another $150T as a modest worth of our population, for a total value of $400T. There is a 1:4 risk that within 50 years "business as usual" carbon emissions will destroy the entire economy, giving an annual risk value of $2T. Adding this annual risk of total collapse to current climate damages costs and current retail costs, we have an annual cost of about $5T for our present energy system, which will certainly increase. On a per capita basis, the annual Mendocino county energy cost is about $1.3B.
California has set a goal of reducing emission 5 percent every year, getting us to zero in 20 years. Parts 1 and 2 described what is needed in the first decade, but let's consider the whole mission. Because electric transportation is three times more energy efficient than internal combustion, and heat pumps are four times more efficient, we need only triple our electricity production to completely replace fossils fuels. In Mendocino that would require about 700MW of solar arrays and 2800MWhr of storage, which would cost about $3.5B at today's pricing.
If almost all the vehicles in Mendocino county were shifted to electricity, we would need about 4600 public chargers, at $15K each, costing another $70M. There are about 90,000 vehicles in the county, half of which are cars, and 40 percent are vans or light trucks. Assuming $30K for an EV car and $100K for an EV truck or van, we need $5B. There are about 33,000 dwellings in the county. Chargers in every home would require another $70M, and shifting all the home heating, and water heating, to heat pumps would cost a further $600M.
This rough estimate for complete decarbonization of our transportation and heating rounds up to about $10B, or $500M per year for 20 years. It is not only cheaper than our current annual energy bill of $1.3B, but uses existing technologies, is not subject to geopolitical upheavals, creates local power resiliency in the face of natural disasters, and provide decades of good local jobs. Last, but certainly not least, it preserves the possibility of a lasting habitable planet. With renewable power, once you have the hardware, the energy is free. That means that the cost is a prepayment for decades of power, so these are good long term investments.
But that is still a lot of money, and the sooner we can make this transition, the better. This solution requires that everyone benefit, no matter what income level, since we all share the same climate fate, with the wealthy having the most to lose. Low interest loans and subsidies will speed the transition, and retrofitting existing vehicles to electric could reduce costs and help make the switch even more rapid.
Our capitalist society is not inclined toward long term wholistic thinking and planning, focusing only on shareholder returns rather than an enduring biosphere. But we have wasted decades in denial, and are being forced to grow up, think big, and act together. Like it or not, we share a common fate.
