written 27 Mar 2022
published 3 Apr 2022
Over the last three weeks I have described an energy transition that might preserve the habitability of our planet, discussing how to get new power and switch our transportation economy, giving a rough cost estimate. While this transition is possible, and even saves money in the long run, there is one important unanswered question: is it likely? As one Ukiah leader recently told me, "it will never happen", but I remain hopeful.
I believe climate change is real, accelerated by human activity, and already here. Having wasted so much time in denial, only a massive coordinated effort has any chance of being effective, requiring social cohesion and unified action, applied over decades, to avert the possibility of total collapse half a century from now, when most of us will already be dead.
But we are a collection of such rugged individualists, focused on short term personal gain, that we can't even agree to protect our public health in the face of a deadly pandemic. A few climate researchers think it is already too late, believing we have passed critical tipping points unnoticed, and at the other extreme, some Americans still believe the Earth is flat.
Folks heavily invested in the economic advantages of the current fossil fuel economy can't allow themselves to believe they are backing a dying horse. Others are so used to believing what they are told by people they trust, that they never examine the subject for themselves, automatically opposing anything presented by the "other side". The necessity of wide scale coordinated action can seem to threaten local control. Some are just afraid of change, thinking they will lose something vital if they consider anything new. Recent events are not encouraging.
The fossil fuel industry, to protect their enormous profits, has pushed climate denier information for decades. A conservative commentator, having gone along for the ride, recently declared that Americans are "not gullible, and will not accept the well-heeled and noisy climate activists hasty and ill-conceived switch to renewable fuels" (Liz Peek in The Hill).
Last month a Republican "leader" in Arizona flatly stated that climate change is a hoax, even as Lake Powell hit its lowest level since it was filled, threatening water resources and hydroelectric production for most of Arizona. The proposed solution is a $1B desalinization plant at the upper end of the Gulf of California, to "secure Arizona's water future for the next 100 years", with no discussion of how it will be powered.
Some people deny the crisis by claiming climate is always changing, which is relatively true. But the magnitude is very rapidly getting more extreme. The warming at the poles is changing several times faster than in our area. Last month the Antarctic was 90°F hotter than normal for this time of year, and the Arctic was 50°F above normal. Last August, Tennessee had 21" of rain fall in one day, shattering records, and a few weeks ago, eastern Australia received 42" of rain in just 3 days! Fire season is now all year long, and the area burned increases each year. Late last December, the normal depth of winter, a wild fire outside on Boulder, Colorado, destroyed over 1,000 homes, before being extinguished a few days later by a snow storm.
But the tide of public awareness is turning, and a growing portion of the population recognizes the serious threat, especially the young who will have to live with the consequences. The hardware we need is now available. Big finance is starting to realize a dead planet is bad for business, so investment funds are shifting from just maximizing short term shareholder gain to long term preservation of the biosphere.
Rather than trying to convince folks, I choose to talk to those who already know we have a problem, and want to do something with whatever time we have left. Begin having the climate conversation with everyone you know. Make sure your power company and employer know you care about the climate impact of their businesses. Let your elected representatives know your care, and vote. Investigate how you can make your life choices and home more carbon neutral. We are currently the frog in the rapidly heating water, headed toward frog soup. But we are still alive, and can try to make a difference.
