written 28 August 2022
published 4 September 2022
So far this summer, we in California have been fortunate, with none of the massive fires that have defined "summer" for the last half decade. However, heat and drought have hit extremes all over the planet, affecting not only the US, but Europe and China.
The decline of the Colorado River leaves Lake Mead and Lake Powell at 25 percent of capacity, affecting water supplies for over 40 million people. Since 80 percent of the water goes to agriculture, this will affect food production. The Northeast had a "flash drought", very intense and destructive regional heating.
Heat in Texas has stressed their electrical system to the point of rolling cutbacks to preserve grid integrity. The Austin area had over 35 days of triple digit heat, with lows above 88°. Throughout the mid-west, crops are dying in the fields, and livestock is being culled due to lack of water and feed. Hydroelectric production is reduced and thermal power plants are affected by lack of water for steam production.
In Europe, heatwaves are hitting countries like England, which rarely experience such heat and don't have widespread air conditioning. Major rivers in France, Germany, and Italy are so low that barge transportation is severely curtailed, and nuclear power plants have to shut down due to lack of cooling water. Salt water intrusion up river is killing fish populations.
China is having such a widespread heat and drought that large portions of their manufacturing infrastructure have shut down due to lack of water, depressing the global economy, and crop losses are beginning to threaten Chinese food security.
Despite what climate deniers want you to believe, the climate crisis is already here. More distressing, there is a decade long time lag between when carbon dioxide is injected into the atmosphere and when the temperature reflects that increase. Half the carbon dioxide humans have emitted during the industrial revolution has come in just the last 30 years. That means we are already committed to another 15 percent increase in warming, and every year we continue to add even more carbon dioxide. As one climate researcher put it, "this isn't just the hottest year to date, but is the coolest year for the rest of your life."
Sarah Trent, wrote the following in the 25 August, 2022 High Country News;
"Climate change is causing overnight lows to rise at a faster clip than daytime highs. Human mortality rates will rise, because people don’t sleep as well in heat and their bodies are less able to recover from daytime heat stress."
"Staple crop yields will shrink: rice, corn and wheat yields will all drop by 5 percent to 40 percent because plants, like people and animals, require a state of rest at night. Fruit, vegetables and wine will change, because many require cool nights to develop the qualities and flavors people like."
"Invasive species will continue to expand northward, because the coldest winter temperatures won’t kill as many of them. Even more salmon and trout will die, because night temperatures play an outsized role in keeping rivers cool. Wildfires will get harder to fight, because nighttime fire activity is on the rise."
Weather and health experts are beginning to categorize heat waves, making it possible to warn people in advance. A tentative system has been implemented in Spain, after their heat experience this summer. Category 0: High temperatures: health risk for vulnerable communities. Category 1: Very high temperatures: avoid prolonged exposure to heat, inform vulnerable community members. Category 2: Exceptionally high temperature: health risks, take precautions, prepare to help most vulnerable. Category 3: Extreme temperatures: major health risk, take maximum precautions. The specifics will vary by location, based not only on temperature, but also humidity. A recent Harvard report indicated lethal heat days will increase by a factor of ten in the next 30 years, making working outdoors more difficult, particularly in the tropics.
The coal mine canaries are all dead, and alarms have been ringing for decades, yet the world is still more concerned with partisan politics and increased economic consumption, oblivious to the fact that all this is at risk of collapse. If there is any chance of avoiding the worst of what is already in motion, we will have to act decisively and globally, starting now. We have squandered the opportunity for gradual changes. Are we up for it?
