written 24 November, 2024
published 1 December, 2024
One of the more persistent "policies" of Trump is the belief that climate change is a hoax. It was recently suggested to me that maybe he doesn't really mean it. While Trump is a documented serial liar (over 34,000 at last report), I suspect he might try to follow through on this one.
Trump has demonstrated that his attention sways in whichever direction brings him the most money personally. He already asked for $1 billion dollars from the fossil fuel companies during the campaign, and I suspect they will be delighted to "help him out", now that he can deliver for them. So, the plan is "drill, baby, drill".
In addition, Trump has trouble dealing with difficult issues that are contrary to his view of "reality", or might require actual leadership. For example, when first confronted with the exploding COVID crisis, he denied it was serious, and "would just go away". Similarly, effectively dealing with the root of the climate issue would take massive leadership skills. Much simpler to deny the issue in the first place.
But the climate crisis is only part of reality being denied. Fossil fuels are finite resources. About half of the known global oil reserves have already been produced and burned. The US was one of the first nation to develop commercial oil production, and our original fields are now depleted, producing a ghost of the original bounty. US production of traditional oil (everything other than tar sands, deep ocean, or tight oil) peaked in 1972, and traditional sources peaked globally in 2005.
There is still oil, but there is no more cheap oil. That is a very big difference. Tar sand production is more like mining than pumping oil, very energy intensive, demanding vast quantities of water for the processing, and adds disproportionate levels of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Deep water ocean wells are also expensive to develop and produce.
Beginning in 2006, the land based fracking boom once again made the US a global production leader, but this is literally scrapping the bottom of the barrel. Traditional oil resources were large pools of oil, which, once developed, produced for decades. Fracking of tight oil is recovering very thin layers of oil within layers of rock. Not only is the process of drilling and fracturing the rock (fracking) energy and resource intensive, the reserves are so small that a given well depletes in a couple of years, requiring constant addition of new wells.
The most profitable fracking regions in the US are depleted, and production peaked in 2018. Investors now realize it has always been a money loser, except when oil prices are very high. In addition, US refineries were built to process a heavier grade of crude oil than comes from fracked wells, so imported heavy oil is essential, or refineries have to be rebuilt at great expense.
Drilling for more oil is a fantasy, even if we ignore the climate concerns. It is important to remember that oil companies are not really in the business of selling oil. They are in the business of providing the highest return for their shareholders, which is a very different business entirely. Why spend vast amounts of money to develop more oil reserves, when they are only profitable when prices are so high oil dependent economies are soon forced into recession? Instead, they are spending money buying back shares, which enriches the shareholders, the primary goal, without the risk of trying to produce more unaffordable oil.
This problem is not unique to the US. Saudi Arabia owns the largest conventional oil reserves. For a quarter of a century, they have been pumping water into their fields, a technique to float out the last of their reserves. Russia's reserves are large as well, but production is depleting, and their undeveloped fields in the Arctic Ocean are expensive to produce, requiring investment and expertise from western companies.
The global search for oil has been very sophisticated, but discovery of new reserves peaked more than a half century ago. The oil is there, but the expense of getting it is increasingly uneconomical. However, money is flexible, and massive investments can be made to look good on paper, but eventually bankrupt the system.
Trump may try to pretend the climate crisis is unreal, but his energy policy is economically and geologically bankrupt. Reality prevails eventually, and has little tolerance for fools.
