Firewise Communities

                                                                                        written 30 March, 2025 

                                                                                        published 6 April, 2025

      

            In 2004, the Mendocino County Fire Safe Council was created "to inform, empower, and mobilize residents to survive and thrive in a wildfire-prone environment, through education, preparation, and collaborative action."  There are now 74 local Fire Safe groups in the county, representing about 15 percent of the population.  The Ukiah Western Hills Fire Safe Council formed in 2018.  

            The hills west of Ukiah haven't burned since the middle of the last century, but inexorable heating from the changing climate increases the odds.  CalFire recently released an updated map of Fire Hazard Severity Zones, and the entire western edge of urban Ukiah is in the "Very High Hazard" group.  For more information visit: http://osfm.fire.ca.gov/FHSZ.

            While some still deny climate change, most people know someone affected by fire storms.  A fire chief in LA recently said "When the wind is less than 10mph, we can fight the fire.  When it is over 30mph, we can only help with evacuations."  The recent LA firestorm had steady 55mph winds, gusting to 100mph. 

            Fire insurance costs are increasing everywhere.  In the last decade, fire claims at Lloyd's of London increased a factor of 3, and expenses increased a factor of 5.  Insurance companies are leaving California, and those remaining are increasingly unaffordable, forcing homeowners into the California FAIR plan, which is more expensive with less coverage.

            The National Fire Protection Agency (NFPA), founded as a non-profit in 1896, has the mission "to provide information and knowledge for the elimination of death, injury, and economic loss due to fire, electrical, and related hazards."  They have been promoting safe building practices ever since.

            NFPA runs the Firewise USA program, for communities to enhance their wildfire resilience, in collaboration between residents, local fire departments, and state agencies, to bolster the fire resistance of homes and surroundings.  Firewise encourages communities to document their volunteer hours, expenses, and vegetation removal each year, including such tasks as mowing your lawn, trimming trees, and clearing debris from your roof and gutters, thus increasing community awareness of the growing fire hazard.

            Responding to uncertainty in California homeowner's insurance, standards are evolving for best practices for home-hardening and defensible space.  Fire hardening your structure can double the chance of it surviving a fire.  State regulations require "Zone 0", five feet around structures and at least 6" up the side, be ember-resistant.  California Department of Insurance requires insurers to offer discounts for such homeowner mitigations.  Living in a recognized Firewise community provides potentially greater discounts for homeowners who do more to reduce their risk.  

            Last year, the Western Hills Fire Safe Council voted to join 11 other Mendocino county Firewise communities.  This new Firewise community in the western portion of Ukiah includes everyone west of Dora, extending the full length of Ukiah, a total of 2000 home.  The goal is for each household to annually record at least one volunteer hour (valued at $31.80 per hour) or an equivalent amount in expenses.  Everyone is already included, and all are invited to participate, but no one is required.  

            Through education, planning, and action, Firewise communities work together to minimize the vulnerability of homes and communities to wildfire damage.  In addition to potential discounts on insurance premiums, benefits include: increased safety through implementing proven risk-reduction strategies to protect both residents and first responders; strengthened neighborhood connections; improved access to grant funding for projects; and increased peace of mind throughout your neighborhood.

            A letter is being sent to all homeowners included in the new Ukiah Western Hills Firewise community, explaining Firewise, and listing several sources for more information.  The two co-chairs are: John Rodgers (JohnRogers8200@gmail.com) and Jeanne Chinn (JeanneChinn@gmail.com).  There is a Western Hills newsletter (whfirewise@gmail.com) and a Facebook Group (Western Hills Firewise Community).  For more information about the Mendocino County Fire Safe Council go to: FireSafeMendocino.org.

            Part of the Firewise program asks communities to make goals and a plan for the next 3 years to help prioritize actions to become more wildfire-prepared.  Some highlighted goals for Ukiah's first year include: encourage registration on wildfire alert systems, promote the Free Defensible Space Program offered for income-eligible seniors, educate on the importance of removing vegetation within 5 feet of a home, promote use of a free chipper program to reduce vegetative fire fuels, and partner with the Ukiah Valley Fire Authority to identify areas for fuels reduction.

            Wildfire doesn’t recognize property lines, so the more we work together, the safer we all are.

Paying Attention

                                                                                         written 23 March, 2025

                                                                                     published 30 March, 2025

   

            Our Mad King in the White House is a master at self-promotion and capturing media attention.  Most of his life has been a reality TV show, designed to increase his brand value and keep his fragile ego inflated.  He now plays the role of an autocratic political bully, making up the script moment to moment.  The more outrageous his actions, the better, as long as everyone is focused on him. 

            He has been described as a malignant narcissist, living in a bubble where only he is important, and everyone else is, at best, a prop, or an asset to be consumed and discarded, if he gives them any consideration at all.  This is a destructive personality type, made more dangerous with power.

            Naomi Klein's book, "Shock And Awe", describes how US interests helped overthrow the elected government of Chile in 1973.  This play book is now on full display here in America.  We already see wide spread destruction, dismantling the America we have known all our lives, building to an unknown crescendo.  Some is planned, but more results from the unstable "genius" at the top being so lightly tethered to reality.

            Despair and depression are on the rise, and little has been suggested for how to effectively respond to a force that has zero respect for honor, tradition, compassion, or the rule of law.  Enrichment of the already very rich, domination, and fear are the goals of this regime.

            Our culture has devolved down to an economy of distracting attention.  The news media has always gone for the exciting and extreme to grab attention.  Consumer capitalism is about the next new and shiny thing "out there", always promised to improve our lives.  Online, the goal is to hold our attention on a particular site, and then pitch advertising to those drawn in.  What we pay attention to shapes our view of the world, so capturing attention is a form of brain washing.  Perhaps an effective response is to reclaim where we put our attention.  

            We experience despair and grief as we see what we once had, now being deliberately destroyed.  But the past, incompletely remembered, is already gone, and the world is always in flux, so any expectation of certainty or continuity has always been at risk.  We fear what worse disaster might be coming, but the future isn't really here yet, and our expectations are based on our past experiences projected forward.

            Changing the past isn't possible, and the future is yet to be.  When we look closely, reality is only what is happening in the present, this moment, right now.  Each moment is unique, unlike any other moment, so change is inherent in the now.            Because action can only take place in the present, not in the past or the future, everything you have ever done has always been in the present.  But being present, living is full awareness of each moment, takes intention and practice, because our culture isn't inclined toward being in the moment.  Consequently, our upbringing and life experience must be transcended.  

            Sit comfortably, and consider yourself in this moment.  If you can read this, you are alive and relatively healthy, which means your heart, lungs, circulatory system, and all your senses are functioning.  Put your attention there, notice and be grateful.  You are likely warm, fed, clothed, housed, and relatively safe.  Notice this good fortune.  As you tune into the beneficial reality of your present situation, you will feel calmer, experiencing less stress in your body, which helps support your immune system.

            In this state of present physical awareness, you might be able to watch the stories rolling through your mind, without having to obsessively identify with them.  As each story comes to an end, there is a short break before the next one starts.  By noticing the breaks, they extend in time.  Embrace the experience of simply being.  Notice the beauty of the natural world around you.  This internal refuge is always available to us, by simply choosing to pay attention.  

            We have no idea how this will all play out, as we are in uncharted waters.  However, as more of us practice being calm in the moment, we see more clearly what makes sense to do.  At the very least, our part of the human collective feels better.  Perhaps there is a tipping point in consciousness, a critical mass, beyond which a wave of awareness spreads globally.  

 

     

Storing Energy (part 2)

                                                                                         written 16 March, 2025

                                                                                     published 23 March, 2025

  

            Let's pretend.  Assume most people want a habitable planet for their grandchildren.  Imagine the partisan fever dream of climate denial has broken, and we realize only coordinated action will preserve our technological society.  Rather than burning through our energy inheritance, consider living within our energy income, collecting heat from the Earth, and solar, wind and rain energy from the Sun.  

            Even if that all happened, we still need to be able to store this collected energy for months or years, using energetically efficient, economically affordable, existing technologies, which are scalable to the quantities needed.  Several candidates exist.

            Pumped hydro is currently installed at grid scale.  Electric pumps push water to higher elevations, which then runs downhill, using the pumps as generators to produce electricity at a later time.  This is expensive to install, not easily expanded, limited to sites with adequate access to water and elevation, and rarely stores energy for more than a few days due to capacity constraints.

            The other possible candidate is using electricity to produce hydrogen by electrolysis of water, which can later be run through a fuel cell to produce more electricity.  The problem is storing the hydrogen gas, the smallest molecule of matter.  Hydrogen can be compressed as gas, cooled to a liquid, or converted to another chemical.

            Hydrogen must be compressed to 250 atmospheres to increase the density enough to be stored and transported economically.  To make hydrogen liquid, it must be cooled below -421°F.  Both these storage forms take energy and expensive, specialized containers, limiting their economically viability.  For long term storage of grid scale quantities, conversion to a "liquid organic carrier" produces the easiest storage form.  Two options are commercially available: ammonia and methanol.  

            Ammonia (NH₃) can be produced using hydrogen and nitrogen gathered from the air.  It must be cooled to below -30°F to be kept liquid at atmospheric pressure.  Even though ammonia is toxic, it is one of the most widely use industrial liquids.  Ammonia is used as fertilizer, and can be burned in internal combustion engines.  Alternately, the hydrogen can be regenerated and used in fuel cells.  Ships that run on ammonia are now operating.

            Methanol (CH₃OH) can be produced from hydrogen and CO₂ pulled out of the air.  It is a liquid at room temperature and pressure, making it the cheapest of all forms to store.  Methanol can be shipped by pipelines, rail cars, or tanker trucks, with no special storage requirements.  It can be burned in an internal combustion engine, or regenerated back into hydrogen to run a fuel cell.  Ships that run on methanol are now operating.  

            The full spectrum from power to liquid back to power requires four different stages of hardware: electricity to hydrogen, hydrogen to methanol, methanol back to hydrogen, and hydrogen back to electricity.  Each stage takes some amount of energy.  These needn't be large single plants, but collections of smaller identical units, mass production to reduce cost.  The modularity of the hardware allows for phased development of the industry and creative distribution of the stored energy.  

 

            Methanol is perfect for backup power at critical facilities, such as municipal sewer and water plants, supermarkets, emergency shelters and communication systems.  It could be burned as methanol, but that is energetically inefficient.  Changing it back to electricity would be more efficient.

            Taking Ukiah as an example, the City electric company could build all four functions in a central location and be able to store excess summer solar energy to provide electricity during the winter.  With the addition of a large battery, power could be shipped over the grid at night, when grid capacity is available, and produce methanol all through the day.  Ukiah could store some of this locally produced methanol at the sewer and water plants for backup power.  Stored methanol at the MTA could power long distance fuel cell busses.  Locally produced methanol would support the shift to long distance trucking using fuel cells.  In addition, NCPA, Ukiah's power provider, could produce methanol at central valley arrays, and truck it to Ukiah without stressing grid capacity.

            Grid scale power storage is a new addition to the electrical system, and planning and construction needs to begin now.

            In light of current politics, this may sound like planning a picnic while ignoring the hurricane destroying the area.  But holding an image of where we want to go helps us on the journey.

 

It Should Be No Surprise

                                                                                           written 9 March, 2025

                                                                                     published 16 March, 2025

   

            It should be no surprise that a tsunami of chaos and disruption is sweeping the land, because some people still believe Mad King Donald, despite him having told 30,000 documented lies during his first term in office.  

            The GOP used to have some bedrock principles: equal justice, law and order, and integrity in business.  Now that the GOP has been taken over by MAGA mentality, even those few guard rails have eroded as the action gets even greedier.  Justice depends on the wealth of those involved.  Law and order primarily protects personal wealth.  It is illegal to defraud investors, but acceptable to lie to the customers in advertising, make others pay externalized costs, or charge outrageous consumer credit interest.  

            By abandoning any pretense of a "common good", the goal is clear: use political positions for personal gain, liquidate democracy, and sell public assets to the highest bidder.  Putin did that in Russia.  Whether the man in the White House is a Russian agent, or just a malleable fool, the result is the same.  

            Despite denying knowledge of Project 2025, he immediately began destroying the Federal government, starting with anything that benefits the poorer portion of the population.  The GOP has always believed the rich should control everything.  Some even claiming that is God's will.  According to Bernie Sanders, over the last 50 years, $80 trillion have been shifted from the rest of us to the wealthiest 1 percent, and just three men now own as much as the poorest half of America.

            The Republican majority on the Supreme Court worked for decades to pave the way.  Corporations are people with rights.  Money is speech, allowing elections to be bought by the highest bidder.  Structural racism is over, freeing States to apply voter suppression.  Bribery is legal, and the President is in effect a king, immune under the law.

            Elon Musk, the world's richest man, spent over $200 million to help buy the presidency. His worth increased by $20 billion since the election, giving a 100:1 return on investment.  He is neither elected nor confirmed by the Senate, but has been tasked by the White House to head the Department Of Governmental Efficiency and decimate the Federal government.  Addicted to the horse tranquilizer ketamine, which can produce hallucinations, Musk is firing workers and closing agencies with little awareness or concern for the consequences.  This is "cleaning house" by burning it to the ground.  However, Musk preserves those portions of government that benefit him, while declaring “the fundamental weakness of Western civilization is empathy".

            The announced goal is to cut $800 billion, in order to give the very wealthiest another $4 trillion tax break.  This can't be done without cutting Medicare, Medicaid, and/or Social Security.  

            Medicare supports health care for 66 million Americans over 65, at an annual cost of $848 billion, mostly to hospitals and the medical/pharmaceutical industry, not to patients, with an estimated 8-10 percent fraud.  Medicaid is a joint Federal/State program supporting health care for 83 million low income adults, children, pregnant women, and people with disabilities.  The Federal portion costs $592 billion annually, with an estimated 5 percent fraud.  Little of this money goes to patients either.  Social Security provides financial support to 68 million elderly Americans, and annually distributes $1.35 trillion directly to individuals, with an estimated 1 percent fraud.

            By contrast, the Pentagon, with an annual budget of $850 billion going mostly to corporations, can't account for 61 percent of their spending in the most recent audit attempt. 

            The president is not a leader, but plays one as a reality TV bully, surrounded by sycophants who boost his fragile ego.  His policies swing wildly from day to day, with no coherent plan.  This uncertainty risks collapsing the highly leveraged American economy.  He is eliminating all climate information, and shutting down NOAA weather reporting, choosing ignorance over responsible action.  Even Libertarians, who hold great distrust for the government, are concerned about the destruction now unfolding.    

            We are experiencing perhaps the final conflict between the illusion of the isolated individual and the reality of a fundamental unity.  Many have commented on the president's deteriorating mental abilities, suggesting advancing dementia or chronic sickness.  Whatever the cause, he is at war with reality, and reality will inevitably win.  The only unknowns are what it will take to change, how long will it take, and what will survive.

Storing Energy (part 1)

                                                                                           written 2 March, 2025

                                                                                       published 9 March, 2025

      

            Living systems store energy for long term survival.  They gather energy from the environment when it is available, use what they can in the moment, and store the excess to live until they can gather more energy.  

            Energy from the breakdown of food is stored internally as various carbohydrates, proteins, or fats, allowing life to survive in situations with extreme variations in available environmental energy.  Every life form on Earth synthesizes adenosine triphosphate (ATP) as the primary energy carrier for use in living cells, demonstrating the unity of life.  This stored energy carrier powers the essential cellular processes when released.  

            Animals collect and store food externally to achieve the same ends.  For example, bees produce and store honey from collected seasonal plant nectar, which nourishes the whole hive throughout the year.  Humans began wide scale food storage with the shift from hunter gatherer to agriculture.  Improving food preservation, creating greater storage life, has defined human "progress".  The relatively recent advent of refrigeration massively expanded the quantity of food preserved, but with the added cost of increased energy consumption, primarily electricity.  

            The first commercial electrical system was established in 1880.  Until fairly recently, all electricity consumed was produced "just in time", because once electricity has been generated, it must be used immediately.  Production has thus been designed to follow the varying load, and economic growth has been constrained by the amount of electricity able to be produce in any given moment.  Despite that extreme limitation, electricity has transformed our entire economy, even though humanity stores relatively little of the energy we consume each day.  

            For the last several centuries, most of our energy has been generated from fossil fuels, sunlight transformed by living organisms, and then geologically sequestered for millions of years.  Our consumption has increased to the point where all the cheapest, easily available fossil fuels have been burned, and the waste from this combustion is relentlessly changing the environment to conditions never before encountered by humans, risking economic collapse, possibly even human extinction.  This is the real push for the shift to renewables, not a hoax or a fashion statement, but the constraints of a finite energy source on a finite planet.

            However, as critics have pointed out, renewable energy is intermittent, not steady state.  It must be collected when available, not manufactured.  Like life forms before us, we need to develop energy storage at a scale that can support our needs, if we expect to survive much longer with the lifestyle we now take for granted.  Even if we reduce our consumption, acknowledging our real needs take much less energy than our current profligate culture, there are three cycles that must be addressed: day/night, summer/winter, and year-to-year.

            Battery technology has made amazing advances in just the last few decades.  Consider the impact of battery powered hand tools, cell phones, and computers.  Even at grid scale, new and larger batteries are being installed each month, with declining costs and improved chemistries.  Electric vehicles, despite the best efforts of the current president, are becoming mainstream, and will replace fossil fuels the same way cars replaced horses.  Even if the US is tries to be obsolete on the planet, the rest of the world is moving forward.

            Batteries are a good solution for the day/night cycle.  They already help store midday solar peaks for evening power usage.  An EV can last for days between charges.  However, while a long range EV might have as much as 100 kilowatt hours of storage capacity, the City of Ukiah consumes 300 megawatt hours each day, 3,000 times as much. And that is just 1/5 of the power consumed in Mendocino county each day.  While grid scale batteries this large are being built, they are not viable for dealing with the summer/winter cycle, especially not at grid scale.  

            A solar array output can vary from almost nothing on a grey winter day to more than 10 times as much on a sunny summer day.  Large hydroelectric dams have similar variability, ranging from flooding in the spring to droughts in the fall.  The challenge is to be able to capture all this energy when it if freely available, and store it for usage throughout the year.

            This must be existing technologies that have already been demonstrated to work, energetically efficient, scalable to the quantities needed, with stable storage for months or years, and economically affordable.  Fortunately, candidates do exist.

Fracking The Economy

                                                                                     written 24 February, 2025

                                                                                       published 2 March, 2025

        

            Fracking is scraping the "bottom of the barrel", technology use to extract the last bit of oil, thinly dispersed within hard rock.  The industry is forced to this because other oil reserves have already been depleted. 

            Wells are drilled, fluids and sand are injected at very high pressures, fracturing the rock and holding it open, allowing the oil to be extracted.  This process contaminates ground water, causes earthquakes, and requires huge amounts of energy, to produced oil in relatively small quantities.  Fracked wells deplete 80 percent in two years.  The industry now acknowledges domestic fracking is tapped out, having lost billions of dollars.

            Independent of money, it takes energy to produce useful energy.  The Energy Returned On Investment (EROI) for fracking averages 7:1.  In comparison, conventional oil EROI is 20:1 on up, and firewood is 5:1.  A technological society needs an EROI of at least 10:1.  Fracking is a last ditch effort, with massively externalized costs (where someone else pays), an economic loss even for the supposed "winners", and inadequate to power society as we know it today. 

            We see a similar process in our economy today.  

            The three richest Americans are Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerberg.  Musk bought the social media platform Twitter, and turned it into the hate filled "X".  Bezos owns Amazon, which dominates the economy, and works the employees so hard they have to piss where they work.  Zuckerberg owns Facebook, which no longer fact checks his conspiracy riddled social media empire, while addicting his customers.  These three men are worth over $900 billion, more than the poorest half of Americans.  These winners in the capitalist game are racing to become the first trillionaire.

            Musk, unelected, and unapproved by the Senate, now heads DOGE, the new agency with a mandate from the president to harvest funds from the poor to fund huge tax breaks for the richest, fracking the economy under the guise of fiscal prudence.  Agencies are being closed and Federal employees are being laid off.  Even some MAGA faithful are beginning to see problems.  

            Canceling USAID, preventing them from "giving away" food to starving people overseas, may sound good to some.  However, the money saved wasn't going to the starving people, but to American farmers, who are now being stiffed by the government.

            The IRS has been told not to investigate or prosecute business fraud.  The FDIC prevents banks from gambling with your deposits, but is being considered for elimination.  Does that make fiscal sense?

            Workers who maintain the security of nuclear weapons are laid off.  Air traffic controllers are laid off.  Threats of immigrant deportations are affecting agricultural production.  

            Support for rural hospitals is on the chopping block, and big cuts in health care are proposed.  Eggs cost more due to avian flu in chickens, and a measles outbreak in Texas is spreading, but Federal health control workers are being laid off.  Tariffs against Canadian oil have already caused gasoline prices to rise.  Tariffs against Canadian steel will affect auto prices.  Tourism from Canada to the US has dropped by 40 percent.  All this is inflationary.

            As Federal workers are laid off, family and community economics are disrupted.  Worried people spend less, and financial observers are concerned about recession.  Traditional American allies now realize the US is no longer trustworthy.  Immigrant groups that believed the lies and supported MAGA, now see their lives disrupted.  Locally, Ukiah announced expected grant funds to support wildfire suppression have been delayed, perhaps eliminated.

            This administration believes the climate crisis is a hoax, and repealed all existing climate mitigation programs, removed any mention of climate issues on Federal websites, and is removing EV chargers on Federal properties.  However, in the last 6 months, climate disasters caused over $400 billion in damages, the same fiscal burn rate as Pentagon funding.  Are we really better prepared by ignorance?  Anyone paying attention is anxious and depressed.  

            Sadly, none of this should have been a surprise, as the plan was advertised over a year ago.  But people believed what they wanted to hear, and couldn't accept the dark story there to be read.  Now loyalty to the "Mad King D" is the rule, with no actual job experience or competence required.

            What will it take?  Complete economic collapse?  Several massive climate disasters?  Eventually, everyone will see we really are all in this together, and the mental disease of unlimited exclusive gain is hurting us all.

 

 

 

Super Bowl Ads

                                                                                     written 16 February, 2025

                                                                                 published 23 February, 2025

  

            Like 127 million others, I watched the Super Bowl two weeks ago.  While the game was dynamic, I am not a sports fan.  I watched for the ads, which are a window into our culture.  This year they cost a record $8M for each 30 second spot.  They were well produced, included a wide variety of celebrities, and a few stood out to me.

            Despite official climate denial from the White House, there were several ads for electric vehicles, including a heartfelt endorsement of an electric Jeep by a Ford.  Fox News presented a moving tribute to all first responder heroes, folks who actually risk their lives to help others.  Being Fox News, they also snuck in a shot of the politician wounded in the ear while making his pitch at a rally.  

            However, I was most impressed with the many ads supporting improved social values.  One showed several groups of young children being led in multiple chants of "I am somebody".  It took several tries to get everyone shouting this wonderful affirmation with enthusiasm.  But as excitement grew, eventually everyone joined in.  This is a powerful antidote to the cultural pressures which tend to discount most people, exhalating only the "best", without crediting the fact that we are all unique, exist, and are therefore valid humans, entitled to respect.

            Another ad addressed the corrosive effect of hate.  If we accept that we are all somebody and unique, then it is foolish to hate just because the other is different, since everyone is different.  Only insecure people fear the other.  Hate weakens the mind and body.  Hate prevents us from learning anything new.  From a unity perspective, hate is just self-loathing projected onto the other.

            Once again, we saw the "Jesus Gets Us" ad.  This seems like a no-brainer, since the Bible describes him as the son of God, after all.  The more important question is: Who Gets Jesus?  This year the ad was more in depth, presenting the core of Christ's teaching: love and compassion.  For everyone!  I was impressed that so much money was spent presenting such a message, without any of religious/economic/political complex messaging that often comes with Christianity.

            For example, I recently heard a woman describe how, in second grade, her nun teacher told her she was "too sinful" to speak directly to God, and could only speak to God through a priest.  This is like a grifter trying to get you to pay for something you already own.  If there is anything an individual has, just by virtue of being alive, it is the internal capacity to pray and listen to inspiration, whatever form you believe that to be.  The attempt to highjack that, demanding it be channeled through "proper" sources, is spiritual assault.  When such rigid rules are attributed to God, violence can become sanctified.

            A local example occurred in 1850, when white vigilantes, joined by members of the California military, massacred native Americans at Clear Lake.  There was a cash bonus paid for the scalps, and the whole affair was justified as eradicating the "heathens", because they weren't Christian. 

            As spiritual power is collected and channeled, economic power increases, which must then be protected.  The 2015 movie "Spotlight" portrays the 2001 revelation, by the Boston Globe, of the wide spread pedophile priest problem.  The Church had covered it up for decades in order to protect the organization while sacrificing their parishioners.  As a result of the investigation, over 250 priests were exposed in the Boston area alone.  The problem was subsequently revealed in 100 other cities in America, and as many more around the world.

            As economic power grows, so does political power.  Leonard Leo, head of the Federalist Society, has selected GOP nominees for the Supreme Court for years.  He is also a member of Opus Dei, a powerful organization within the Catholic Church, which is criticized for its secrecy, ultra-conservative teachings, and alleged links to fascism.  In part, the chaos unfolding in America today is the result.

            Against this kind religiously distorted spirituality, it was refreshing to see the simple message of love and compassion presented.  Our president has stated that "fear is power".  While this is historically popular, it is naive and short sighted.  We are each faced with a personal choice: fear or love.  One divides us, and the other strengthens us.  It is your choice about how to live.

 

 

Deja Vu All Over Again

                                                                                       written 9 February, 2025

                                                                                 published 16 February, 2025

 

            The last time fascist boots marched across the world, millions died, and many countries were smashed to dust before it was over.  My father survived that war, so it is deeply depressing the authoritarian fascists this time are American.  In just the first few weeks in office, the tsunami of chaos, disruption, and ill feelings flooding from the White House feels overwhelming, and denial is policy.  

            As the Asian bird flu expands, decimating commercial flocks, raising egg prices, the Center for Disease Control is being gutted, and information expunged, leaving the population blind at a time of increasing risk.  A growing measle epidemic in Texas is expanding unacknowledged, without any official recognition or reaction, in that very red, anti-vax state.

            Rather than face issues, we have a "know nothing" party in power, focused on narrowly popular social issues, with heavy punitive religious overtones.  When authoritarian rule is aligned with fanatical religious dogma, people feel justified by God to kill and oppress for exclusive gain.  Fear, judgement, and revenge are the currency of this administration, and people already feel it.

            Yesterday, a man with a battery powered bullhorn was standing on the street corner, shouting non-stop at the passing traffic.  The words were unclear, but the tone was dire.  As I passed, I could only see the words "Jesus" and "vomit" on his sign.  According to the Bible, Christ taught the two most important actions were to love God and love the other.  How can anyone hate, and still believe they are truly "Christians"?

            But the most significant juggernaut headed our way is the growing climate crisis. Out of spite, the new regime is defunding all previous climate efforts.  Regulations are being removed, allowing unfettered fossil fuel development, despite the industry knowing their time is ending.  All mention of climate change is being stripped from government websites.  National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, which has been significant in monitoring climate change, is being gutted and muted.  

            But reality doesn't bend to denial.  January 2025 was the hottest January on record.  Temperature at the North Pole was 20°F above normal last week.  The Earth has now exceeded the previous Paris accord limit of 1.5°C above preindustrial times, and it was recently reported that we will blow past 2°C in no time, as the planet is heating faster than was previously feared.

            The proof is becoming impossible to ignore.  Lloyd’s of London, a major re-insurance firm, reported that in the last decade the quantity of insurance claims increased a factor of 3 and payments increased a factor of 5.  State Farm Insurance recently announced it will raise home owner insurance rates in California an average of 22 percent.  Insurance may not be affordable, even if available.  Uninsurable property loses 80 percent of its value, threatening real estate and banking industries, and the funding of state and local governments.

            The January wildfires in Los Angeles destroyed $70 billion in insured property, but the regional economic impact, including lost incomes, uninsured losses, and destroyed infrastructure, is estimated as high as $280 billion.  The estimated regional economic impact of the fall hurricanes in the southeast is $140 billion.  These two events, in just five months, add up to about half the annual US Pentagon budget.  Rest assured, these aren't the last climate disasters we will see.  These are only teaser previews of coming attractions!  But our "leader" doesn't believe it is real.  

            The challenge is how to respond.  We each have the power to choose, despite the external situation.  Hating the other, not only doesn't work, it is just the same play book as the party in power and we become what we resist.  

            From a Buddhist, unity reality, we are all one, and our "leader" is part of me.  He was abused by his father, taught the world is only killers and losers.  He had no emotional support, and no real friends.  He knows he is a fraud, but can't embrace that, so he spews hate on everyone else.  If I have compassion for that destroyed, angry, frightened little boy, my attitude changes.  I don't forgive his actions, but I don't hate him, and I feel better.

            We don't know what will happen.  In the long term, the rise and fall of Hitler ushered in 80 years of peace in Europe, the longest in recent history.  Hold fast to the vision of what we want.

 

Canada and Greenland

                                                                                       written 2 February, 2025

                                                                                   published 9 February, 2025

     

            The 2021 fictional movie "Don't Look Up" portrays how humanity responds to the impending disaster of a comet about to impact the Earth.  The entrenched status quo declared it "fake news", to calm the public and protect profits.  More responsible people organized a global attempt to deflect the comet enough to avoid any impact.  At the last minute, wealthy voices, seduced by the value of the rare minerals in the comet, derailed that attempt.  Instead of changing trajectory, the goal became capturing the comet.  That failed, and everyone died.

            "Don't Look Up" is a metaphor for the climate crisis, which our current "leader" labels as "fake news".  Addicted to protecting short term corporate profits, he is working to undo the modest efforts of the previous administration.

            But the changes in the Arctic Ocean are real.  The Northwest Passage, once completely frozen solid, was first transited by 3 icebreakers in 1957.  The Arctic is warming 3-4 times faster than the rest of the planet, with diminishing summer ice cover each year.  The first summer with an ice-free route was in 2007, and cruise ships now occasionally make the passage.  

            The potential economic opportunities are huge, as passage through the Arctic, from China to Europe, is twice as quick as current routes using the Panama or Suez Canals, which are often congested.  Further, vast mineral and fossil fuel deposits could be exploited as the ice recedes.  China and Russia are very interested, which explains why our "leader" is now threatening to make Canada another state, and invade Greenland, offending two of our traditional allies.  National Security is the excuse, but greed is the driver.  However, like the misguided wealthy in the movie, a fundamental disaster is being completely ignored, risking everyone.

            Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is a known greenhouse gas.  Humans have changed the atmospheric chemistry, added over 1,000 billion tons of fossil carbon in the last 75 years, heating the planet an additional 1.6°C.  Atmospheric CO₂ lasts for millennium, and the heating effect lags behind the atmospheric content by about a decade, so even if we stopped adding more today (which is NOT happening), the planet will slowly continue to heat up.

            But methane (CH₄) is another important greenhouse gas.  It is a smaller part of the atmosphere, and breaks down into CO₂ within a decade, but over that short interval it is 80-120 times more potent than CO₂ at heating the planet.  Natural methane is the byproduct of anerobic bacterial action, so wet lands, rice paddies, landfills, and herbivore belches contribute, but they recycle existing atmospheric carbon.  Natural gas is fossil methane, buried for millions of years.  As that industry expands, methane leakage increases.  In 2005, natural gas fracking boomed and by 2007 atmospheric content of methane began increasing sharply.   

            But the looming disaster in the warming Arctic comes from long frozen methane in the vast area of permafrost and in the sea floor of the Arctic Ocean.  These deposits have accumulated over millennium from buried bacterial action.  Like frozen carbon dioxide (dry ice), frozen methane goes directly from solid to gas when heated.  With increasing frequency, when frozen methane in permafrost warms and turns to gas, it blows out visible craters on the surface.

            The Arctic Ocean is a shallow sea, with an average depth of about 100'.  When the surface is covered with ice, as it has been for thousands of years, sunlight is reflected back, keeping the ocean floor cold, and the frozen sea floor methane remains stable.  The concern is that when the ocean surface is ice free, the darker water absorbs heat, warming the shallow sea and eventually the ocean floor, turning the frozen methane to gas which then rises to the surface.  

            The Arctic is relatively unexplored, so the amount of frozen sea floor methane is estimated between 200 billion to 10,000 billion tons.  If 1,000 billion tons of CO₂ warmed the world by 1.6°C, then just 10 billion tons of methane would have the same impact.  That is only 5 percent of the lowest estimated amount of sea floor methane, or less than 0.1 percent of the highest estimate.  The heating impact would hit within months.  Once any significant methane induced heating started, there would be nothing to stop the whole frozen mess coming to the surface.

            GOP/MAGA institutionalizes denial, distracted by greed, domination, and petty revenge, ignoring issues that are rapidly corroding our economy and our civilization.

 

 

Oil Sheen

                                                                                    written 20 January, 2025

                                                                                   published 2 February, 2025

  

            Everyone has seen the iridescent rainbow patterns in an oil sheen on water.  Oil is hydrophobic, which repels water and doesn't mix.  It spreads out across the surface of the water, and if the quantity of oil is small enough, the layer gets very thin and the rainbow patterns become more distinct.

            White light is composed of different colors, which are different wavelengths of energy.  A thin layer of oil reflects some light from the surface, but also allows some light to penetrate into the layer.  When that light hits the oil/water interface, some is reflected back toward the source, where it interacts with light reflected from the top surface.  For a given color, or wavelength, the interaction can be constructive (in phase) or destructive (out of phase) depending on the depth of the oil layer.  When constructive, that color is enhanced, when destructive, that color is diminished.  The rainbow patterns we see on the surface are a visual map of the subtle, varied thickness of the oil film.

            The human eye "sees" from red to blue, with red having a longer wave length than blue.  The wavelength of red light is 700 nanometers, 28 millionths of an inch, and blue light is only 16 millionth of an inch.  The rainbow patterns result from oil layer thickness differences as small as 10 millionths of an inch, 100 times finer than a human hair. While we can't directly experience those small distinctions, we clearly perceive the material consequences, seeing patterns without realizing the subtlety underlying those patterns.

            The same can be said for our experience of what we call the "material" realm.  Most people have heard of Einstein's famous equation E=MC²: energy equals mass times the speed of light squared.  All material form is concentrated energy.  Because the speed of light is so great, the energy represented by even a modest amount of mass (material) is enormous.  For example, a single 12 ounce bottle of my favorite beer, Boont Amber from Anderson Valley Brewery, has the energy equivalence of 13 megatons of TNT, 1000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. Fortunately, beer is a very stable form of energy, delicious to drink, and easy to experience.

            The physical perspective resulting from Einstein's equation has been validated by transformative technologies ranging from the destruction force of nuclear weapons to LED lights, computers, cell phones, and solar cells.  No person alive today is untouched by the consequences of this view of reality.

            Like seeing the patterns in the oil sheen, yet unable to directly perceive the underlying subtle reality, our material experience misses another deeper reality.  The concentrated energy we experience as material form arises from a vast ocean of energy, much like the waves we see on the ocean ride on the invisible depth of water below.  We see only the surface patterns, not the volume.  

            Enormous as they are, the energy concentrated in the matter pales to insignificance when compared to the vast energy ocean from which all matter arises.  The most concentrated mass known, and therefore the most energetic, is the core of a neutron star, yet the difference between that and "nothing" is a billion trillion times less than the distinctions we see in an oil sheen.

            Why is any of this important?  How does it apply to my daily experience?

            The fundamental dysfunction of our times, the root of every "ism" that bedevils us all, is the persistent illusion that we are all completely separate, apparently supported by our limited experience of material reality.  The ways we divide reality are everywhere, and have been perpetuated through centuries, but they all rest on the belief that the differences we experience are absolute differences, instead of only relatively superficial distinctions.  To the extent we can open to the idea that all form is simply waves on the surface of the same ocean, we can begin to experience the unity of reality, instead of eternally fighting against what is inherently actually ourself.  

            This idea is not new, as the mystical core of every spiritual tradition teaches the same message.  For thousands of years, as far back as written history extends, the unity of life has been known and taught.  But over the same period of time, it has been ignored by the fanatics seeking power and domination.  However, we are now too numerous, and too powerful to be so ignorant much longer.

Fires in LA

                                                                                      written 20 January, 2025

                                                                                  published 26 January, 2025

                  

            Parts of Los Angeles are still burning, even though I began writing this 2 weeks ago.

            The region received less than 0.1" of rain since October 1st, 2024.  Tuesday, January 7th, meteorological conditions created strong Santa Anna winds, rushing over the desert, down the coastal ranges, heating and drying as they progressed, blowing steadily at 50mph, gusting up to 100mph.  With winds this strong, fires are unstoppable. 

            That afternoon, the first fire was reported in the Pacific Palisades, between Santa Monica and Malibu.  This mountainous portion of the city, with narrow winding streets, has very expensive homes.  A hurricane of embers swept through, fire resources were overwhelmed, and evacuation became the only possible focus.  The water system, designed to supply residential needs, was exhausted within hours, leaving hydrants temporarily dry at the peak of demand.  Roads became clogged, as traffic congestion caused people to abandoned their cars and run for their lives.  Blocks upon blocks of housing and commercial buildings were reduced to ash and rubble, and video of the disaster made all the news outlets. 

            A few hours later, the Eaton fire was reported in Altadena, just north of Pasadena.  With fire resources already stressed, this heavily populated area was also suddenly burning, and evacuation was again the priority.  Soon, three more areas of the city were on fire, one near Hollywood and two in the San Fernando Valley.

            The next day, the winds were so strong, and smoke so thick, aerial firefighting was curtailed.  The extent of the damage was becoming clear.  By then, the Palisades fire had consumed 26 square miles and destroyed over 1,000 structures.  The second largest impact was the Eaton fire, burning 16 square miles and 900 structures.  The initial death toll was five, but 130,000 had been evacuated and 1.5 million were without power.

            By Thursday, winds had diminished some, allowing planes to help attack the flames.  A total of six named fires were now burning, consuming a combined total of 46 square miles and 5,000 buildings.

            On Friday, only the four biggest fires were still growing.  The Palisades fire had burned to the ocean, and the active front was expanding north into the wild lands of the Santa Monica mountains, and west into the hills above Malibu and Pepperdine University, having consumed 31 square miles, with 8 percent containment.  The Eaton fire, burning north into the San Gabriel mountains, consumed 21 square miles, was 3 percent contained.  In the San Fernando valley, the Kenneth fire in the west, and the Hurst fire in the north, each burning another 1.5 square miles, were both only 1/3 contained.  The death toll had reached ten, 10,000 structures had been destroyed, and 180,000 people had been evacuated.  

            By Sunday the 12th, the death toll was sixteen, with 62 square miles burned, but most of the power had been restored.  On the 20th, the regional death toll is 27, 14,000 structures were destroyed, and the Palisades fire is only 52 percent contained. 

            Over 25 years, California wild fires have more than doubled in extent, as atmospheric CO₂ content grows, inexorably heating the planet.  15 of the 20 most destructive fires have occurred in just the last decade.  The 2018 Camp fire, which destroyed 18,800 buildings in Paradise, was the most expensive fire, but the Palisades fire is expected to top that, with regional economic impact estimates now as high as $250 billion.  

            But people still deny the climate crisis, even as the results make the evening news.  Our newly inaugurated "blamer-in-chief" pointed the finger at Biden and Newsom, yet is unable to propose any actual solutions.  Real problems require real people, but we only get a media distraction.  The fires we experienced in LA will become exponentially worse, growing larger and more frequent over time, until we collectively decide enough is enough.  This will be difficult to change.  Not only is the magnitude of the problem vast, but the mindset that caused this is very resistant.  People who are fooled are resistant to accepting they have been fooled.

            But the climate crisis doesn't care what you believe or how you voted.  If left unaddressed, your home and community will get dried out, burned up, flooded away, or blown to bits, no matter where you live.  Our heavily leveraged, massively inequitable economy, will corrode and collapse.  Do you think these fires will make home owners insurance more affordable or available? 

 

Thinking of the Titanic

                                                                                         written 5 January, 2025

                                                                                   published 12 January, 2025

    

            At 11:40pm, April 14th, 1912, the Titanic struck an iceberg, sinking 3 hours later.  From the moment of impact, the ship was doomed, but that awareness spread unevenly through the 2,224 people on board.  

            For hours previously, despite repeated radio warnings of sea ice from other ships in the area, the Titanic never slowed, determined to make their maiden voyage in record time.  The night was moonless, and windless, making detecting icebergs very difficult.  Spotted only a few minutes before impact, the berg couldn't be avoided.  

            The Titanic was advertised as "unsinkable" with 16 watertight compartments.  But it could only stay afloat with four or less fully flooded.  The ice narrowly sliced along the side of the ship, opening 5 compartments to the sea, and the pumps couldn't keep up.  

            One of the first to know their dire reality was the ship's architect, who was onboard for the celebratory voyage.  With his extensive knowledge of the design, he had no doubt the ship would sink.  But most of the passengers were still asleep.  As the situation became clearer, the crew began to react.  Distress signals were repeatedly radioed.  All passengers were awakened, and lifeboats were being rigged for launching.  Many passengers still didn't know what was happening, or didn't believe the information.  Many, most especially the first-class passengers, were upset at being disturbed.

            Believing the ship invulnerable, there had been no lifeboat practice drills for crew or passengers, so events proceeded slowly.  Further, for cost and aesthetic reasons, there were only enough lifeboats on board for half the people.  Even when the boats were eventually launched, the were carrying fewer than full capacity, from unfounded fears they would capsize and lack of concern by many still on board, who continued believing the ship was "unsinkable".  

            The first ships arrived almost 2 hours after the Titanic disappeared.  By then all the people in the frigid water had died, over 2/3 of the ship's population, predominantly third-class passengers and crew.

            Moving from a past disaster to the present one, last year was again the hottest year on record.  For the first time, we are 1.5°C above preindustrial times, having added 1,000 gigatons of atmospheric CO₂ in the last 200 years, due to fossil fuel combustion.  The International Panel on Climate Change had set 1.5°C as a target to avoid.  Despite decades of scientific warnings, describing risk of increasing climactic collapse, short-term corporate profits prevail, and atmospheric CO₂ content grows each year.

            Arctic sea ice is the lowest on record for this time of year.  The concern is, with sea ice cover diminished, the shallow Arctic sea floor will warm, melting the embedded frozen methane, estimated between 200-10,000 gigatons.  Methane is 80 times more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide over a few decades.  Once the sea floor warms above freezing, an unrestrained methane release into the atmosphere would cause a sudden, massive temperature spike.  Beginning a decade ago, dinner plate size methane bubbles were reported rising to the ocean surface.

            Has space ship Earth already been irrevocably damaged?  Are we doomed to collapse, with most of the passengers still asleep, unaware of our fate?  Are there any lifeboats onboard?  What do they look like?  Where would we go?  Are we depending on rescue from other "ships" in the area, or divine salvation?  

            Less than 2 weeks from now, a president will take power who claims these concerns are "fake news", and is owned by the billionaire class killing the planet for exclusive profit.  It may be the current shift in our energy production, a crude lifeboat attempt, is far enough along it can't be stopped by the denial lunacy.  But the best efforts so far are inadequate to the challenge, and any delay will hurt, as more CO₂ floods in each year.  

            There may still be paths to avoiding societal collapse but we have wasted decades.  Gradual change is no longer sufficient, and abrupt social change doesn't seem possible in such a polarized global society.  

            We don’t know what’s going to happen.  Are we just a lethal parasite killing our host?  Could crisis awaken the masses to experience the fundamental unity of our reality?  Could limited dogmatic religious visons of transcendence fall away?  Could we embrace the power of our own attention?  Could we experience the imminence of reality?  Miracles are the operation of forces of which we are currently unaware.