written 29 Aug 2021
published 5 Sep 2021
The climate crisis is already here and growing. To avoid economic collapse within a few decades, we must begin with a 50% reduction of carbon emissions by 2030. This is the fourth part of a description of what that might look like in Mendocino county. In addition to installing distributed renewable energy production and storage, and beginning the shift to electric vehicle (EV) transportation, there are two other important elements required to actually reduce emissions: a green hydrogen economy and a trained labor force.
Batteries are adequate for storing energy on a daily basis, and EV's work for most short distance transportation needs. But saving summer sun for winter use, long distance transportation, commercial heating, and heavy industry all require another form of energy storage. The emerging candidate is green hydrogen, which uses non-carbon energy sources to split water. The released hydrogen can then be stored as compressed gas, cooled to a liquid, combined as a chemical hydride, or converted to a Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier (LOHC), such as ammonia (NH3). Each method has an energy and infrastructure cost, but all provide shippable long term energy storage. Quick refueling times make hydrogen attractive for long distance road transportation and industries needing around the clock operations, without EV charging downtime. Hydrogen can also power the shipping, railroad, and airline industries.
The transformation has already begun. Around the world, trillions are being committed to infrastructure construction. UPS, FEDEX, and Amazon warehouses are investigating moving to hydrogen, attracted by quick refueling times. Ten automotive corporations are currently developing hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles, including Toyota, GM, BMW, Daimler, Mazda, and Hyundai. A hydrogen powered ferry has begun operating in the Puget Sound. A residential backup power system using hydrogen storage is now on the market, in competition with the Tesla Powerwall battery. Demonstration projects using hydrogen for residential heating are ongoing in Scotland, Japan, and Sweden. The heavy industries of cement and steel can't operate on electric heat, but hydrogen will work, and Sweden has just shipped the first batch of steel produced by hydrogen. Several bus lines now have arrays to produce their power, which run hydrogen electrolysers supplying fuel cell busses.
A possible Ukiah hydrogen economy could start with MTA as a first customer. Hydrogen would be produced using excess array production in the summer and lower cost overnight grid power. Once hydrogen is available, the MTA bus fleet could begin transitioning to fuel cell busses. In addition, having hydrogen available along the 101 corridor would aid the expansion of all types of fuel cell powered transportation. A local fuel supplier could begin retail residential deliveries as homes begin shifting away from propane. Local businesses that have commercial heating needs could install arrays and electrolysers at their locations.
The other required element is a large trained labor force. If we are to succeed, this will be a war time like mobilization. To increase annual renewable installations by a factor of four, build an entire hydrogen economy, and convert every home and business away from carbon-based power will require a pool of skilled labor far beyond what exists today. Mendocino College, in combination with the local high schools and all the various local contractors, should develop a training program to accomplish this worthwhile effort. Shifting the country away from fossil fuels will take decades, so we are talking about creating long term employment in meaningful work: creating a habitable planet for our grandchildren. This is the kind of commitment that allowed cathedrals to be built over centuries, giving meaning to the lives of the people doing the work.
Such a massive infrastructure shift requires significant and prolonged investments. But doing nothing risks complete economic collapse, with the added possibility of human extinction. There are people who still doubt this, and require certainty before they act. However, certainty is an illusion, and making large social change is slow. Waiting for certainty increases our risk of failure.
One of the biggest barriers to accomplishing this is the investments of the fossil fuel industry. Given how they have convinced people to invest in the bankrupt fracking industry, we see that only compete economic collapse, like Enron, will get their attention, like an addict in denial hitting low-low. But the entire planet is at risk to their addiction and we really can't wait.
