written 25 September 2022
published 2 October 2022
Two weeks ago, the UDJ printed Dan Walters article questioning if California could build a 100% renewable power economy. He correctly pointed out that the existing grid is already operating at capacity some of the time, and the plan to decarbonize the entire economy will require two to three times more electricity. In addition to limited grid infrastructure, our entire transportation fleet will have to be replaced, and all our building heating will have to shift away from fossil fuels. Because we have delayed dealing with the climate crisis, this will all have to happen as soon as possible, and be completed within 20 years. He questions if this is affordable, or even possible. But let's examine what would happen if we don't even try.
Without rapid decarbonization, the extreme heatwave this summer will soon be viewed as a good year. Hazardous high temperatures are expected to increase by a factor of ten in the next 30 years. Rivers in the southwest are at record low levels, threatening 2/3 of the fruit and vegetables produced in the US. What rain arrives often comes as intense inundations, like the 3" Ukiah received in less than 24 hours.
So far, large wildfires have been relatively rare this year. However, fire insurance companies are beginning to pull out of California or raise rates to unaffordable levels. The State fire insurance system is a last resort, but is not comprehensive or cheap. As the insurance situation deteriorates, the mortgage system will become precarious. If a buyer can't get insurance, lenders will be scarce. Imagine what that will do to property values and the tax base?
When fires burn through a community, the local economy takes a hit, even if everyone is able to rebuild, further stressing the economic health of the local governments. In Paradise, the underground water and sewer systems were affected, requiring massive reinvestment.
Mendocino county economy is heavily dependent on tourism. If it is too hot outside, or too smoky, or the water supply is too limited, where is the leisure attraction?
The wine industry is another significant portion of the county economy. Mendocino is known for its varietal grapes, which depend on relatively stable microclimates that are now rapidly changing. At some point all the vines will have to be replanted with different varieties more tolerant to the warming climate, assuming that is possible or economical. In addition, smoke taint is already a problem. This destroys the value of the wine and sometimes only shows up long after bottling.
Intense inundation, the other side of the climate swing, is just as economically challenging. While our county terrain has amazing capacity for handling rainfall, as extremes increase, so does the impact. Area flooding and storm drain failures will increase, as well as debris flow in burned areas and general land movement. All of this increases the cost of keeping the community functioning. We are also subject to being completely cut off in a large scale inundation event, such as the 1861 flooding of the Central Valley. These widespread events have occurred every 150-200 years, but the warming climate increase the likelihood by a factor of three or four.
We have little food resilience, and no power resilience in Mendocino county, and are totally dependent on complex technological infrastructures that are many decades old. These systems were designed for a climate that is no more, and will never return in our lifetime. Such complex systems can experience cascading collapse when simple things fail. While we still have time, we must begin planning for our new climate reality.
Some individuals can afford a degree of personal resilience, but the larger challenge is to think in terms of community resilience, building systems that will endure to support future generations, as well as our own.
For example, our electrical power system operates on the old paradigm of a few large production centers shipping power to all the consumers over an extensive grid. This is no longer adequate, either in capacity or resilience. Building distributed production and storage can maximize the existing interconnection of the grid while increasing local resilience. Every community needs to begin planning.
It is estimated that decarbonizing the planet will cost about $23T, which seems daunting. However, the existing global infrastructure is worth about $700T. Preserving all that is worth the effort. Our descendants will thank us.
