Christmas

                                                                                                    written 18 December 2022

                                                                                                published 27 December 2022

   

            This article was to run on Christmas, the day Christians all over the world celebrate the birth of Jesus.  This date was selected several centuries after Christ's birth, when the Roman emperor Constantine first converted to Christianity in 312AD, and had the Bible as we know it edited in 325AD.  Most of his army worshiped Sol Invictus, which celebrated the winter Solstice, so this time was selected for the Christian holiday as well.  It wasn't known as "Christmas" until 8 centuries later. 

            I consider myself a mystical seeker, open to inspiration from all spiritual traditions.  As such, I don't identify as a religious Christian, but admire, and aspire to, the core teachings of Christ as expressed in Matthew 22:37-40, where Jesus said, "You must love the Lord your God with all your heart, all your soul, and all your mind.  This is the first and greatest commandment.  A second is equally important: Love your neighbor as yourself.  All the Law and the Prophets hang on these two commandments."

            As a left brained rational man, swimming in the world of conceptual words, this speaks to me of the unity of reality.  I am also inspired by quantum mechanics, which describes the world as resonant waves, whole, non-local and profoundly interconnected.  The largest expression of "Loving God" is to love the whole world, without distinction or separation.  All apparent form is the consequence of limited perception, as no part is inherently distinct.  Albert Einstein said, "Either everything is sacred or nothing is."  To love anything requires we love everything.  What a challenge!

            From the largest perspective of stars and galaxies, down to the smallest expressions of matter, it is all one.  Can you imagine opening your heart to mountains, dirt, plants, insects, animals, water and air?  What would that feel like?  How would it change our daily life?  How would we have to shift the way we do business?  Nothing is "trash".  Nothing is "disposable".  Everything has inherent value, as everything arises from the same sacred whole.  Considering this, I see the disparity between my current "reality" and the spiritual goal, and am inspired to grow.

            Christ's second commandment, that we "Love our Neighbor", is a repeated emphasis of the wholeness of interconnected reality as applied specifically to people.  The history of the world is riddled with the oppression of "others".  What would it feel like to live this second commandment completely?  Who can we kill?  Who can we hate?  Who can we oppress?  Who can we discriminate against?  The simple answer is "nobody", as we are all one.  What a radical idea!  Can you even imagine living in that state of grace?  How would our national efforts be rearranged?  How would our corporate agenda be modified?  How would we justify impoverishing many for the benefit of a few if we felt the pain and suffering created?

            This is the spirit of Christ, a possibility open to us all, something worthy of celebration and a life goal to aspire toward.  This is the ideal of Christmas: Peace on Earth, and Goodwill Toward All.  These goals are really universal, not limited to Christians, but found in every spiritual tradition on Earth.

            Sadly, humanity is still a far cry from this exalted state.  The spirit of Christ has often been distorted by the business goals of corporate religion, with their power politics of domination: expression of lesser human values, wrapped in spiritual trappings.  In the name of Christ, "non-Christians" have been exterminated, and war between Christian sects have endured for centuries, even into "modern" times.  Such political oppression in the name of religion is completely antithetical to the spirit of Christ.  

            The true "war on Christmas" is evident in the rampant commercialization of the season, with Christmas products now on sale beginning in September, and Black Friday sales the life blood of many businesses.  The widespread anxiety from endless marketing to "buy" can easily overwhelm the more subtle internal spiritual values.

            However, we all have choice in this frenzy.  Turning within, quietly contemplating the spirit of this time, we can add our personal effort toward manifesting this unity into the world, bit by bit.  Events on the planet are coming to a crescendo, and we are all alive at this time to open our hearts and participate.

            I wish for everyone, Happy Solstice, Merry Christmas, Peace on Earth, and Goodwill Toward All Beings.

  

            

 

Part 3: The Barrier

                                                                                                    written 11 December 2022

                                                                                                published 18 December 2022

   

            Part 1 described the increasingly dire climate situation, and the goal of complete decarbonization within the next 20 years.  Part 2 presented a vision of what a solution might look like in Ukiah.  This week discusses the barriers to that kind of transformation.

            Last month I had a meeting with several Ukiah officials to present the afore mentioned climate challenge and possible solution, hoping to stimulate a plan for moving forward.  The general sentiment was that things are fine as they are, the grid is more stable than previously thought, there is no need for immediate action, but they are keeping an eye on the situation.  I was specifically told the decarbonization in 20 year is "not going to happen".    

            To be fair, these folks are running as fast as they can to keep up with the daily challenges.  Their obligation is toward fiscal prudence and reliable service, and are reluctant to make large commitments, not an uncommon reaction. But if nothing changes, the climate crisis will expand until it crashes the economy long before kids today hit retirement.

            This reluctance breaks down into two categories: that it "can't" happen (technical), or that it "won't" happen (political).

            While the technical challenges are huge, and there is no assurance of success, the current opportunities are spectacular.  Just consider the changes in electric vehicles.  Twenty years ago, the best EV on the market was the GEM car produced by Chrysler, essentially a golf cart on steroids, thrown together to game the fleet milage standards.  Today serious electrical transportation options are offered by every automobile manufacturer on the planet, and new options are coming every year.  While the prices are still high, and the charging system limited, the situation is rapidly changing.  

            The same dynamic applies to renewable production hardware.  Solar panel costs dropped from $5.10 per watt in 2000 to $0.20 per watt in 2022.  Similarly, lithium storage battery costs dropped from $2.20 per watthour in 2000 to $0.18 per watthour in 2018.  The cheapest grid scale power installed today is solar with storage.

            One of the technical challenges is scaling up production of needed systems.  But we know this can change rapidly, when desired.  The first of 2,710 Liberty ship was constructed in 244 days and launched in 1941.  Two years later the average time was 39 days, and the fastest was less than 5 days.

            Clearly, financing is a huge challenge.  We are contemplating a complete retooling of the national transportation, heating, and electrical generation systems.  Global estimates range from $25T to $70T, which is daunting.  But that is a fixed cost for the hardware, as the energy is free.  In contrast, the global wholesale cost of fossil fuels is $4T per year, more than $80T over 20 years because those cost will constantly increase as affordable resources are exhausted.  The issue is not the amount of money, it is the limited perspective of those making the long-term financial decisions.

            For example, Ukiah could buy and install a Tesla Powerwall battery backup system in every home for a little more than the cost of the purple pipe recycled water system.  That would give the City almost 70 megawatt hours of storage, provide emergency power resilience to every citizen, and eliminate the increasing problem of midday solar overproduction.  The City has access to federal and state grants, and the bonding authority to spread the cost over time.

            Technically, a major shift "can" happen, but the political choice that it "will" happen is not yet present.  Part of this is political tribalism.  A majority of the Congressional Republicans still claim climate change is a hoax.  Many more people accept the climate reality, but still doubt the cause is man-made, alleviating any need for action.  A smaller, more powerful group knows the crisis is man-made and real, but they make billions off the existing system.  They can't imagine a need for change, even though stalling risks everything they now have.

            That leaves it up to the rest of us, who accept the problem is real and man-made, but are not satisfied killing the plant for short term profit.  We in Ukiah are fortunate, because we have access to the levers of power in our electrical utility.  We could become a model, working out the difficulties, showing what a sustainable, power resilient community might look like.

Part 2: The Vision

                                                                                                      written 4 December 2022

                                                                                                published 11 December 2022

    

            Last week I described the climate situation.  Doing nothing will shortly crash the global economy, and effective action to avoid that crash must be swift and massive.  We must complete decarbonization our economy within 20 years, electrifying everything, and begin significant carbon removal for decades after that.  This will require about 1-1/2 times additional electrical power, and will be constrained by the limited grid capacity.  What might such a solution look like in Ukiah?

            Ukiah presently consumes a daily average of about 300MWh, peaking about 50 percent higher in the summer.  Almost none of that power is produced within the city limits.  

            A survey done by the Renewable Energy Development Institute in Willits showed only 25 percent of homes in Ukiah had suitable roof top solar exposure.  Currently, less than 2 percent of Ukiah homes have roof top solar.  Residential power is at least 1/3 of our consumption load.  If every home with good exposure installed roof top solar, it would increase production by about 1/10.  A Google Map survey of parking lots and business roof tops within the City limits indicates room to install 30MW of solar array (assuming 50 percent coverage), which would increase power production another 2/5.  

            Imagine what this might look like.  Every parking lot would be shaded from the increasing summer heat, preserving the life of our vehicles while providing local power resilience.  Modern solar panels are warranted for 25 years, and will still be producing power for 50 years, without any inflationary increase.  

            Businesses and homes would be providing some of their own power needs, increasing resilience in increasingly uncertain times.  All the City essential services, like sewer, water, and emergency communications, as well as emergency cooling centers, health care facilities, and grocery stores, could be made power resilient.  Having some power in an emergency is infinitely better than being in the dark.  The City might even expand to include land dedicated to power production, further increasing power resilience.

            Full build out of solar options within City limits, would produce about 1/3 of the new power needed.  The remaining 2/3, about equal to our current power consumption, would have to be shipped in, but this runs into the transmission limitations of the grid.

            Right now, any power consumed must be delivered exactly as it is needed, transmitted over the grid to the Ukiah substation, and then over the local distribution system to the individual homes and businesses.  On average, our power system handles about 12.5MW an hour.  At peak times, that hourly rate can be three times higher, approaching the limit of system capacity.  However, if we had capacity to store power locally for use during peak loads, the system could easily handle shipping twice our current average rate.  Ukiah would need to store about 300MWh of power every day.  The good news is that kind of hardware now exists, is getting cheaper every year, and is being installed all across the country.

            Grid scale renewable power is becoming more available every year.  Within California, plans for large scale wind development off shore of Eureka are well along, with a potential for 36GWh when fully developed.  Off shore wind is estimated to produce 30-50 percent of the time, not tied to solar variation.  The Sonoma Clean Power Geyserville GeoZone geothermal project will produce 12GWh in just the first phase of development, with a higher capacity factor, operating around the clock.  In the US, 46GW of utility scale solar were installed in 2022, half of all new power plants.  

            Part of Ukiah's challenge is to produce as much power locally as possible, and build the storage capacity to allow the existing grid to ship in the rest of what is needed.  The other part of the challenge is to reduce demand, and facilitate shifting to electric transportation and heat pump technologies.  An early 1900's picture of downtown New York showed 90 percent horses and 10 percent cars.  Just a decade later the percentages were reversed.  This rapid technology change was facilitated by wide spread access to affordable loans.  A similar change could happen again.

            Ukiah needs to develop a General Energy Plan, defining long term goals and time frames, prioritizing projects, and then aggressively implement the plan.  The alternative is the collapse of everything we have come to expect of our society.  Now is the time to act.

Part 1: The Current Situation

                                                                                                    written 27 November 2022

                                                                                                  published 4 December 2022

            Last Spring, atmospheric CO₂ concentration hit 421 parts per million, the highest in human history and a 50 percent increase from preindustrial levels.  Paleo geologists tell us that the last time the Earth had that concentration was 4 million years ago, and the sea level was 30'-60' higher.  The elevation of San Francisco airport is 10', and Sacramento is 17'.

            The atmospheric carbon increase has been so rapid that sea levels are lagging far behind, currently estimated to be only a foot higher by 2050.  The global temperature has already increase 1.2°C since burning fossil fuels began, but half of the carbon dioxide increase happened in just the last 30 years.  Temperatures are lagging behind by about 15 years, which means 1.6°C is already guaranteed.  Furthermore, we are still adding massive amounts of carbon dioxide every year.

            The good news is that yearly increases have peaked and are slowly declining.  So much has been invested in renewable power production and storage technology that the prices have plummeted in the last 20 years.  Solar plus storage is now cheaper to install than operating an existing natural gas plant, while providing fixed power costs for decades.  Electric cars are now a serious transportation alternative.  The increasing impact of climate amplified weather disaster is getting everyone's attention, including the financial community, although some people still doubt the cause is manmade.  The fire season in five of the last six years has definitely changed the conversation in California.

            While effective national and global action is still inadequate, climate scientists are more hopeful that humanity can avoid the disastrous temperature extremes (increases of 4°C-5°C) that seemed inevitable even a few years ago.  That kind of an increase would rapidly destroy every economy on the planet, and risk adding humans to the growing list of extinct species.

            However, to avoid that disaster, we must stop adding any more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, and begin aggressively removing what we have already put there.  We have to electrify everything as quickly as possible, ideally within 20 years.  This has to be done globally, because the reality of the world, especially as manifested by the climate crisis, is connected, unified, and not exclusive in any fundamental manner.   

            But even that best future will take time and will increase temperatures to an estimated 2°C or so, about double our current heat, causing significant climatic damage and social disruption.  Such a rapid and complete change of the global economic will require an unprecedented degree of social cohesion and financial investment, and be resisted by the massive status quo inertia of vested interests.  But every year, more people see that the current system is doomed, bankrupt not only by the structural inequities and the climate problem, but by the global exhaustion of affordable fossil fuels.  

            Putting aside, for a moment, the question of political cohesion, the technical challenges are also daunting.  

            In the US, the energy budget is roughly 1/5 for generating electricity, 2/5 for transportation, and 2/5 for heating and manufacturing.  Electric transportation is 3 times more energy efficient than internal combustion propulsion, as is heat pump technology, where heat is simply moved rather than created.  This still means that we have to shift all electrical production away from burning fossil fuels, and then almost triple the amount produced.  Toward that goal, California recently told their electrical utilities they must increase peak power production from 60 gigawatts to 150 gigawatts, in order to power this transformation.  

            The current electrical grid is already strained keeping up with existing loads, requiring new ways of thinking about handling the increased power.  For the last century the grid has operated by producing and shipping power only as it is needed.  Now we must collect power when it is available and store it until it is needed.  Instead of grid capacity limiting local power development, like a congested freeway at rush hour, distributed storage will be required to preposition power for maximum grid utilization.  Building distributed production of power, near where it is needed, will also reduce grid congestion.

            Despite the difficulty of making this transition, the alternatives of denial or despair are not productive.  While we still live, we have possibilities.  Are we too stuck in past stories, too selfish and frightened of change, to even make the effort?  The time of possibility is now.