written 11 December 2022
published 18 December 2022
Part 1 described the increasingly dire climate situation, and the goal of complete decarbonization within the next 20 years. Part 2 presented a vision of what a solution might look like in Ukiah. This week discusses the barriers to that kind of transformation.
Last month I had a meeting with several Ukiah officials to present the afore mentioned climate challenge and possible solution, hoping to stimulate a plan for moving forward. The general sentiment was that things are fine as they are, the grid is more stable than previously thought, there is no need for immediate action, but they are keeping an eye on the situation. I was specifically told the decarbonization in 20 year is "not going to happen".
To be fair, these folks are running as fast as they can to keep up with the daily challenges. Their obligation is toward fiscal prudence and reliable service, and are reluctant to make large commitments, not an uncommon reaction. But if nothing changes, the climate crisis will expand until it crashes the economy long before kids today hit retirement.
This reluctance breaks down into two categories: that it "can't" happen (technical), or that it "won't" happen (political).
While the technical challenges are huge, and there is no assurance of success, the current opportunities are spectacular. Just consider the changes in electric vehicles. Twenty years ago, the best EV on the market was the GEM car produced by Chrysler, essentially a golf cart on steroids, thrown together to game the fleet milage standards. Today serious electrical transportation options are offered by every automobile manufacturer on the planet, and new options are coming every year. While the prices are still high, and the charging system limited, the situation is rapidly changing.
The same dynamic applies to renewable production hardware. Solar panel costs dropped from $5.10 per watt in 2000 to $0.20 per watt in 2022. Similarly, lithium storage battery costs dropped from $2.20 per watthour in 2000 to $0.18 per watthour in 2018. The cheapest grid scale power installed today is solar with storage.
One of the technical challenges is scaling up production of needed systems. But we know this can change rapidly, when desired. The first of 2,710 Liberty ship was constructed in 244 days and launched in 1941. Two years later the average time was 39 days, and the fastest was less than 5 days.
Clearly, financing is a huge challenge. We are contemplating a complete retooling of the national transportation, heating, and electrical generation systems. Global estimates range from $25T to $70T, which is daunting. But that is a fixed cost for the hardware, as the energy is free. In contrast, the global wholesale cost of fossil fuels is $4T per year, more than $80T over 20 years because those cost will constantly increase as affordable resources are exhausted. The issue is not the amount of money, it is the limited perspective of those making the long-term financial decisions.
For example, Ukiah could buy and install a Tesla Powerwall battery backup system in every home for a little more than the cost of the purple pipe recycled water system. That would give the City almost 70 megawatt hours of storage, provide emergency power resilience to every citizen, and eliminate the increasing problem of midday solar overproduction. The City has access to federal and state grants, and the bonding authority to spread the cost over time.
Technically, a major shift "can" happen, but the political choice that it "will" happen is not yet present. Part of this is political tribalism. A majority of the Congressional Republicans still claim climate change is a hoax. Many more people accept the climate reality, but still doubt the cause is man-made, alleviating any need for action. A smaller, more powerful group knows the crisis is man-made and real, but they make billions off the existing system. They can't imagine a need for change, even though stalling risks everything they now have.
That leaves it up to the rest of us, who accept the problem is real and man-made, but are not satisfied killing the plant for short term profit. We in Ukiah are fortunate, because we have access to the levers of power in our electrical utility. We could become a model, working out the difficulties, showing what a sustainable, power resilient community might look like.
