Peak Oil

                                                                                             written 23 April 2023

                                                                                         published 30 April 2023

                                                                                                  

            The carbon content of fossil fuels is driving the climate crisis, but that is not the only reason to rapidly shift to renewables.  

            For decades people have been concerned about the issue of peak oil, first mentioned by oil geologist Marion King Hubbard in 1956.  He proposed that since oil was finite, any given reserve had a natural production cycle, which would eventually peak and then inexorably decline.  He suggested the US domestic reserves would peak in the early 70's.  While ridiculed at the time, US production did peak in 1972.  He also predicted that global production would peak in the early 2000's.

            Global production of conventional oil (everything other than deep water, shale oil, and tar sands) peaked in 2005.  Oil prices spiked, helping contribute to the bank crash of 2009, causing a reduction in demand, and a lowering of prices.  Oil production projects kept pumping despite lower demand.  In addition, US shale oil production exploded, adding more to the global supply, making America the top exporter for the first time in decades.  The resulting glut fueled belief in ‘Made in America’ cheap oil."  

            The recovery from the 2008 recession was slow, keeping oil demand low and prices affordable for almost a decade.  Global oil production of all kinds peaked in 2018, but the 2019 COVID pandemic created another global recession, continuing to mask the precarious state of oil production.  But that is about to change.

            Shale oil wells are expensive to drill, and output rapidly declines within a few years.  Over the last two decades, US shale oil has lost over $300B.  The most economical fields are already depleted and investors are fleeing.  "In recent months, industry leaders have announced that the US shale oil and gas revolution is over" (Financial Times).  “The specter of peak oil is once again rearing its head”, (Bloomberg).  US shale oil production will peak a few years from now.  OPEC will not be able to fill the shortfall, because their capacity for production increase is less than half of current US shale output, so global oil production will start declining, with massive economic impacts.

            The persistence of global inflation goes beyond the war in Ukraine.  As climate change erodes agricultural productivity and damages infrastructure, food prices and goods and services become more expensive.  Rising energy costs, as the global fossil fuel system changes, will make everything more expensive.  OPEC will benefit in the short run, but their reserves are already in decline.  As the overall supply declines, oil price fluctuations will become a ‘new normal’ until demand declines.  

            In resilience.org on March 29, 2023, Nafeez Ahmed writes:  "New oil and gas investments would be a colossal mistake, like betting on horses after being told they are about to be overtaken by cars.  The only viable pathway through this crisis will be to accelerate the clean energy transformation: solar, wind, geothermal, batteries, and e-fuels from green hydrogen.  This transformation is already underway, and provides the opportunity to produce larger quantities of energy at a fraction of the costs of fossil fuels."  

            "The global oil industry is going to become economically unsustainable by around 2030, consuming a quarter of its own energy just to keep pumping oil.  The collapse will accelerate and the industry will simply become impossible to sustain economically.  Economic factors will inevitably drive incumbent industries to collapse by 2040 as they are replaced by new renewable systems.  The window for action is extremely short.  We need to act within this decade."  

            The industry knows all this.  Exxon Mobile recently quite exploration in Brazil after finding no oil.  Instead, they are buying back shares, enriching current investors.  Shell no longer funds oil exploration, shifting to renewable investments.  All conventional oil reserves are declining.  Twenty years ago, Saudi Arabia was pumping seawater into their oil fields to boost production in remaining reserves.  

            Fossil fuels are finite, and subject to inevitable inflation over time.  Renewable power installations are fixed costs, getting cheaper each year, and the energy collected is free.  Remaining fossil fuel resources are mostly owned by national governments antithetical to the US.  Renewable installations can be widely distributed, so individuals and communities can control their own power.  Only the inertia of the status quo holds us back.

Earth Day

                                                                                           written 16 April 2023

                                                                                       published 23 April 2023

                                                                                                  

            Saturday, April 22nd, was Earth Day, a time to honor the planet that supports all life as we know it. 

             The first Earth Day was in 1970.  Nixon was president, the dollar was strong, tied to the gold standard, American domestic oil production controlled the price of oil, and the global population was 3.7 billion.  Atmospheric CO₂ content was 325ppm (parts per million), up from the pre-industrial 280ppm, and the planet was 0.1°C warmer.  Exxon Mobil was beginning to investigate if burning fossil fuels might become a problem.  

            In the half a century since, Nixon removed the dollar from the gold standard to avoid bankruptcy, ending decades of global financial stability, leading to a decade of run-away inflation.  Domestic oil production peaked, and OPEC began controlling oil prices.  Exxon Mobil discovered their product was a climate killer, closed their research center, hid their findings, and began funding climate denial to continue making huge profits.  Today, global population is 8 billion, atmospheric CO₂ content is 423pmm, and the planet is 1.2°C warmer than pre-industrial times.

            To put this in perspective, the last ice age ended 10,000 years ago.  For 2,000 years, atmospheric CO₂ had slowly increased from 180ppm to 280ppm, melting an ice sheet 3 miles thick over the northern half of North America, to become the temperate climate where human civilization thrived.  Fossil fuel combustion has added another 100ppm to the atmospheric CO₂ in just 50 year, a relative explosion in the geologic time frame.  The continental plate is still rebounding from the removal of all that weight.  Florida is sinking as northern Canada rises, one of the three reasons sea level is now rising 0.5" a year in the Sunshine State (oceanic heat expansion and melting terrestrial ice are the other two).

            The first climate warnings occurred 40 years ago, and the first Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) report was issued in 1990, adding reports every few years.  IPCC reports only consensus findings, making for cautious statements.  However, the climate situation is changing rapidly, and each subsequent report find things worse that the worst case scenario of the previous report.

            A good example is the estimate of sea level rise by 2100.  Until recently, the estimate was about 3', but that lacked detailed Antarctic research, creating a conservative bias.  New research shows rapid changes in Greenland and the South pole, with sea level rise estimates up to 10', possibly 20', by 2100, assuming nothing accelerates further.  At 20', three quarters of Florida will be underwater.

            Despite ample warnings, adequate climate response has been delayed for decades.  Fossil fuel industry greed prioritizes short term profits over the health of the society.  These big political donors are primarily Republican, so the climate crisis has become politicized, and the Republican mantra is: Climate change is a leftist hoax.  

            Florida Republicans prohibit mentioning "climate change" or "sea level rise".  Yet Miami is spending $400M to deal with "persistent sunny day flooding".  Hurricane Ian caused over $113B in damages, and the flood insurance industry has bailed on Florida.  Ian was stronger, larger, and held more water, as a result of the warming planet.   This week Fort Lauderdale had almost 24" of rain in 24 hours.

            Republicans in South Carolina also refuse to mention climate change, but residents of Charleston are already dealing with sea level rise threatening their entire city.  Last year climate extremes cost the US over $500B, which will rapidly increase as the climate becomes more unstable.  The climate crisis doesn't care what you believe.  

            While climate awareness is increasing, atmospheric CO₂ is still rising 2ppm annually, and effective climate response is slower than required to avoid heat death of the economy before today's kids can retire.  As the old saying goes: When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!  

            This Earth Day, residents of Mendocino county have the opportunity to purchase 100% non-carbon electrical power, a small step in the right direction.  In the City of Ukiah, call 707-463-6747, and ask Lori to sign you up for 100% renewable power.  In the county, if you are served by Sonoma Clean Power (SCP), call and sign up for their Evergreen option.  If PG&E provides your power, switch to SCP, and then sign up for Evergreen.  These options cost a little more, but we have wasted so much time, the cheap options are gone.  Your descendants will thank you.

PG&E

                                                                                             written 2 April 2023

                                                                                         published 9 April 2023

                                                                                                  

            Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), the largest investor-owned California electric utility, serves from Santa Barbara to Humboldt, inland to the Nevada border.  PG&E generates only 1/7 of the power consumed in Mendocino county (Ukiah and Sonoma Clean Power generate the rest).  But no matter who generates the power, PG&E owns the high voltage transmission grid which imports the power, and the wires and poles of the local distribution systems, outside of Ukiah. 

            As a regulated public utility, PG&E has a guaranteed income, controlled by the California Public Utility Commission (PUC).  By regulation, PG&E must approve the transfer of electrical power across property lines or public roads, and the connection of new renewable power or large-scale storage systems, hindering timely system growth.  But the situation is changing.

            In 2001, a devastating energy crisis hit California.  Republican deregulation was then gamed by fraudulent, greedy corporations in the energy market.  PG&E was caught unprepared, and their first bankruptcy was a consequence.  Since their system was "too big to fail", the State bailed out the company, allowing rates to rise while doing little to change the company management.

            In 2017, the climate crisis exploded in northern California as wildfires burned parts of Santa Rosa and Redwood Valley, and every summer since has seen massive wildfires.  In criminal cases where towns were destroyed and people died, PG&E was convicted of liability, causing the fires due to decades of deferred maintenance while boosting executive bonuses.  In 2019, the company filed for bankruptcy a second time, shedding billions in fire liabilities.  Again, the State bailed it out, without management changes.

            Because the electrical system was not designed for our new hotter, drier, windier climate, PG&E's initial response was "Public Safety Power Shutdowns" (PSPS): planned power blackouts whenever weather conditions threatened.  Despite being announced in advance, the public was dumped back to the 1800's, with few resources for survival.  Ukiah went dark for 4 days in October 2019, at a cost of $8M is lost sales, lost food, and cleanup.

            Customer dissatisfaction with PSPS events forced PG&E to begin making changes.  Undergrounding of some distribution lines has begun, but it is expensive and time consuming.  Undergrounding the high voltage transmission grid cost 10 times as much.  PG&E is refining which parts of the system can be shut off, rather than whole circuits.  Fast breakers have been installed which immediately de-energize sections when a short to ground has been detected, which means power goes off without any warning. 

            Fire is not the only issue PG&E faces.  This winter over 12 atmospheric rivers have hit California, with high winds toppling trees in saturated soil.  Recently, over 400,000 PG&E customers were without power.  The company has stated they are unprepared for this magnitude of storms.

            PG&E is increasingly unable to meet the demands of operating the grid.  Electrical connection of new construction can take months, and entire communities are being told there will be no new service for years.  The company is asking the PUC for permission to unilaterally refuse further service to some customers in remote areas. 

            Indications are that PG&E is heading toward another bankruptcy to shed debts.  While there is little desire to bail out the company again, there is no "plan B".  The existing grid is obsolete, and not designed to deal with the rapidly changing climate.  What are the alternatives?

            To my mind, if we are to avoid total economic collapse from a heating environment, we must eliminate combustion of fossil fuels as soon as possible, shifting to EV's and heat pumps.  This will require expanding electrical production by a factor of three, all non-carbon, which cannot be handled by the grid as it is used today.  The solution will require more efficient conservation (needing less), more local power production (importing less), and massive distributed storage (using the grid around the clock).  The investor-owned financial system has shown they are unable, or unwilling, to mobilize this level of investment in a timely manner.

            Therefore, this essential public facility should no longer be owned by corporations designed to maximize shareholder profit at the expense of customer service.  The grid must become a publicly owned facility, as is appropriate to how essential the electrical services are to the entire economy.

            If you agree it is time for a fundamental change in the electrical utility, email your concerns to Assemblyman Jim Wood, Assemblymember.Wood@assembly.ca.gov, or call (916) 319-2002.

 

Back Again

                                                                                         written 25 March 2023

                                                                                         published 2 April 2023

                                                                                                 

            It used to be that in polite society, talk of religion and politics was avoided, however, the renewal of White Christian Nationalism demands discission.

            Transcendent spirituality presumes a potent reality that encompasses our apparent material reality.  Atheists deny there is such a thing, believing everything is described within the four dimensions of Newtonian space/time, and agnostics aren't sure.  

            However, quantum mechanics proposes that the material world is resonant energy, unified non-locally by higher dimensional patterns.  This view is validated by the success of quantum dependent technologies such as lasers, computers, and cell-phones.  Furthermore, quantum mechanics puts consciousness, also non-local, central to reality: our perspective shapes our experience.  

            Over 80 percent of the planet has a conceptual belief, and/or a personal experience, that inspires consideration of a spiritual reality, with more than 100 names for the transcendent.  Absolute Spirit, Allah, Alpha and Omega, Atman, Brahma, Buddha, Christ Consciousness, Divine Mother, Dreamtime, Eternal Now, Gaia, God, Goddess, Great Spirit, Higher Power, I Am, Jehovah, Jesus, Kali, Krishna, Nondual Awareness, Pele, Perennial Philosophy, Shakti, Shiva, Source, Tao, Ultimate Truth, Universal Oneness, Universal Soul, Vishnu, Yahweh, and World Soul, to name just a few.  

            Within every spiritual community there is a spectrum running from mystics to fundamentalists.  Mystics tend to value experience over concepts, understanding that words are only approximations, human artifacts, subject to cultural limitations.  Mystics are willing to learn from anyone's spiritual experience, and are more tolerant of cultural differences.  Fundamentalists are more focused on words and concepts, and can become rigid, and dogmatic, insisting their "truth" is the only truth.  Fanatical extremists have killed those who disagree with them, including mystics of their own tradition.  

            Consider the group of blind men encountering an elephant.  Each has a real experience with a single part of the elephant.  Unwilling to expand beyond their personal experiences, they dogmatically fight about the true nature of the beast. 

            What we know as the Christian Bible was edited exclusively by men, centuries after Christ lived, to become the sacred text for the new state religion of the Roman Empire.  For centuries, the Church has grown in political and financial power.  Despite the spiritual value of the Bible, the message has been distorted over time.  

            For example, Christ's primary directive was to Love God (Mathew 22:37-40), yet today a "good" Christian is often described as "God fearing".  Confusing fear and love is the destructive logic of traumatized people.  A man in Ukiah had a sign saying: "Obey Jesus, or burn in hell for eternity!"  The recent Superbowl ad, "Jesus gets us", begs the bigger question: "Who gets Jesus?"   

            As the internalized fear becomes externalized as hate, the fanatical self-righteous presume religious sanction for misogyny, domination, oppression, and even murder.  "Christians" have not only murdered people of other faiths and cultures, but have persistently warred against other Christians.  The Catholic/Protestant conflict is the most extensive, but oppression and domination arose between Protestant sects as well.  Most of the Pilgrims immigrated to the new world because of religious persecution in Europe.  Rigid Church dogma distorted western science for centuries, specifically excluding the central role of consciousness from research, under threat of death.  All of this is far from the core of Christ's teachings, totally "missing the mark", the original meaning of sin.

            Which brings us to the present time.  The basic reality espoused by all spiritual traditions is the unity of the world, hence the universality of the Golden Rule.  Living this truth is our ongoing work.  As society makes progress toward this goal, groups such as White Christian Nationalists, today's fanatical fundamentalists, who have benefited from the exclusive gain of previous fear-based domination systems, are feeling put upon.  They demand a return to a time when nobody was allowed to object to a few rich white men ruling everything.  Living in fear, not love, they are willing to tear everything apart to get their way.

            I believe the answer is to live the life of love that most people aspire to.  We can practice being kind to everyone, living the love in our heart.  We can cultivate access to inspiration and insight, our individual connection to larger wisdom.  This radical social activism is completely within our power.  The tide is turning.  While the old order of domination believes it's still in control, the fundamental bankruptcy is becoming more obvious every day.