written 16 April 2023
published 23 April 2023
Saturday, April 22nd, was Earth Day, a time to honor the planet that supports all life as we know it.
The first Earth Day was in 1970. Nixon was president, the dollar was strong, tied to the gold standard, American domestic oil production controlled the price of oil, and the global population was 3.7 billion. Atmospheric CO2 content was 325ppm (parts per million), up from the pre-industrial 280ppm, and the planet was 0.1°C warmer. Exxon Mobil was beginning to investigate if burning fossil fuels might become a problem.
In the half a century since, Nixon removed the dollar from the gold standard to avoid bankruptcy, ending decades of global financial stability, leading to a decade of run-away inflation. Domestic oil production peaked, and OPEC began controlling oil prices. Exxon Mobil discovered their product was a climate killer, closed their research center, hid their findings, and began funding climate denial to continue making huge profits. Today, global population is 8 billion, atmospheric CO2 content is 423pmm, and the planet is 1.2°C warmer than pre-industrial times.
To put this in perspective, the last ice age ended 10,000 years ago. For 2,000 years, atmospheric CO2 had slowly increased from 180ppm to 280ppm, melting an ice sheet 3 miles thick over the northern half of North America, to become the temperate climate where human civilization thrived. Fossil fuel combustion has added another 100ppm to the atmospheric CO2 in just 50 year, a relative explosion in the geologic time frame. The continental plate is still rebounding from the removal of all that weight. Florida is sinking as northern Canada rises, one of the three reasons sea level is now rising 0.5" a year in the Sunshine State (oceanic heat expansion and melting terrestrial ice are the other two).
The first climate warnings occurred 40 years ago, and the first Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) report was issued in 1990, adding reports every few years. IPCC reports only consensus findings, making for cautious statements. However, the climate situation is changing rapidly, and each subsequent report find things worse that the worst case scenario of the previous report.
A good example is the estimate of sea level rise by 2100. Until recently, the estimate was about 3', but that lacked detailed Antarctic research, creating a conservative bias. New research shows rapid changes in Greenland and the South pole, with sea level rise estimates up to 10', possibly 20', by 2100, assuming nothing accelerates further. At 20', three quarters of Florida will be underwater.
Despite ample warnings, adequate climate response has been delayed for decades. Fossil fuel industry greed prioritizes short term profits over the health of the society. These big political donors are primarily Republican, so the climate crisis has become politicized, and the Republican mantra is: Climate change is a leftist hoax.
Florida Republicans prohibit mentioning "climate change" or "sea level rise". Yet Miami is spending $400M to deal with "persistent sunny day flooding". Hurricane Ian caused over $113B in damages, and the flood insurance industry has bailed on Florida. Ian was stronger, larger, and held more water, as a result of the warming planet. This week Fort Lauderdale had almost 24" of rain in 24 hours.
Republicans in South Carolina also refuse to mention climate change, but residents of Charleston are already dealing with sea level rise threatening their entire city. Last year climate extremes cost the US over $500B, which will rapidly increase as the climate becomes more unstable. The climate crisis doesn't care what you believe.
While climate awareness is increasing, atmospheric CO2 is still rising 2ppm annually, and effective climate response is slower than required to avoid heat death of the economy before today's kids can retire. As the old saying goes: When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!
This Earth Day, residents of Mendocino county have the opportunity to purchase 100% non-carbon electrical power, a small step in the right direction. In the City of Ukiah, call 707-463-6747, and ask Lori to sign you up for 100% renewable power. In the county, if you are served by Sonoma Clean Power (SCP), call and sign up for their Evergreen option. If PG&E provides your power, switch to SCP, and then sign up for Evergreen. These options cost a little more, but we have wasted so much time, the cheap options are gone. Your descendants will thank you.
