One Man's Ego

                                                                                            written 3 May, 2026

                                                                                      published 10 May, 2026

           

            In August, 1945, the quantum physics theory that all matter is a form of energy was validated when the U.S. destroyed two Japanese cities.  Nuclear bombs, 1,000 times more powerful than previous weapons, began a new chapter in humanity's historic obsession with domination through power.  As no country wanted to be at the mercy of their adversaries, other countries soon joined the club, which today includes: the United States, Russia, England, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.

            The world recognized the need to control this new level of destruction, and the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty helped slow the spread.  189 of the 193 nations have become parties to the treaty.  However, India, Israel, and Pakistan have never agreed, and North Korea withdrew in 2003.

            Atoms For Peace, producing electricity from commercial nuclear reactors, put a benign face of nuclear technology, but made weapons control more difficult.  While nuclear reactors are not nuclear bombs, they have some fundamental infrastructure similarities, and potential bomb material is generated within commercial nuclear "waste".

            Iran's enmity toward the U.S. began in 1953, when we helped overthrow their elected leader over oil issues, and installed the former Shah as their tyrannical dictator to act as our agent in the region.  The Iranian nuclear industry began when the U.S. built them a small research nuclear reactor in 1970.  However, plans to build 20 power reactors were halted by the 1979 Islamic revolution, which solidified American enmity toward Iran.  America applied economic sanctions and "froze" (stole) $12 billions of Iranian state funds then on deposit in western banks, worth $55 billions today.

            With Russian help, Iran then spent decades developing their nuclear infrastructure, asserting a right to have nuclear electrical power.  But concerns grew that they were getting close to building nuclear weapons. 

            Both sides were entrenched in their mutual mistrust and hatred, making effective agreement very difficult.  However, when Obama was president, the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany began negotiations with Iran, offering incentives to constrain their nuclear ambitions.  After 20 months of talks, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in July 2015.

            Iran gave up 98 percent of its enriched uranium.  Their uranium mining, production, enrichment, and research were restricted and monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog.  Inspectors had unfettered access to Iranian nuclear facilities, ensuring they pursued only civilian work.  If Iran was found to be non-compliant, UN sanctions would immediately resume.  In return, Iran was granted economic sanction relief and their frozen funds were to be returned.  

            For several years, the IAEA certified Iran was keeping its commitments.  The threat was contained, a testament to the power of diplomacy. 

            However, in May 2018, seventeen months into his first term, our new president's ego decided the JCPOA was a "terrible deal".  Perhaps he wanted to destroy anything Obama had achieved.  Perhaps he was just wanted attention.  Based on nothing, without consulting the other parties to the treaty, without consulting Congress, he withdrew the U.S. government from the JCPOA and reimposed oil and banking sanctions.   

            Iran, claiming the U.S. government had demonstrated it was untrustworthy, declared it would resume enrichment without any limitations, and barred international inspectors.  By early 2023 it had stockpiled enough enriched material to potentially approach nuclear breakout.  This was the disaster everyone had feared, unilaterally created by our president, on a whim.  

            On 13 June, 2025, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iranian nuclear targets and personnel, which ended 12 days later when the U.S. dropped "bunker busters" on the underground enrichment facilities.  The president announced he "completely and totally obliterated" their nuclear capacity, but the Pentagon assessed it had been set back maybe 2 years.  

            Having welched on a working deal, and then failed to destroy the resulting Iranian nuclear program, the president doubled down, encouraged by hawks in our government.  On 28 February, 2026, the U.S. and Israel began a larger set of attacks on Iran, again without consulting any allies or Congress.  This time Iran responded, attacking regional fossil fuel infrastructures and military installations.  More significantly, they closed the Strait of Hormuz.

             Despite this being totally expected, the president had no effective response.  Ten weeks on, global trade is still disrupted, continuing to get worse the longer the blockage lasts.  Americans are still relatively sheltered, but that won't last much longer.  We are at the mercy of one man's ego, which thrives on chaos and anger.  

 

Meanwhile

                                                                                         written 26 April, 2026

                                                                                        published 3 May, 2026

            

            Into the ninth week of war, the world holds its breath.  The president extended the ceasefire indefinitely, but each side has fired upon opposing ships, so the Strait is still effectively closed.  The Pentagon says it could take six months to clear the mines, and Iran is laying new ones.  Oil futures edge higher, gasoline and diesel prices increase slowly, while stocks are holding steady.     

            The president says he "feels no pressure" and has "all the time in the world."  Claiming once again that progress is being made, he is sending his best team to negotiate a deal, his son-in-law, hedge fund manager Kushner, and real estate developer Witkoff.  Everyone hopes new talks will resolve the issue before actual shortages begin crashing economies across the planet.  

            However, Iran refuses to attend, stating its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it calls "Washington’s excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade.”  

            The talks have been canceled for now, and the Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire seems to be failing.

            Meanwhile, the war is not the only situation getting worse. 

            The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a UK chartered professional body for actuaries, which Wikipedia defines as "professionals with advanced mathematical skills who deal with the measurement and management of risk and uncertainty."  These people look at the real world to price catastrophic risk, providing the foundation for all insurance and businesses.

             "The Oldest Debt", by Mary Geddry, using IFoA data, states that while the war distracts attention, "the planet’s climate system, the living, breathing infrastructure upon which every human right, every economy, every civilization, and every future generation depends, is moving toward thresholds that no election can reverse and no military can defend against.  This is not a prediction.  It is already happening."

            "The physics of climate change do not respond to election cycles, diplomatic communiqués, or quarterly earnings reports. They respond to the laws of thermodynamics. And the thermodynamics are not negotiating."

            The planet is measurably warmer, due to the increased insulating effect of adding more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  The additional energy is equivalent to 1,000 nuclear explosions every second for the last 50 years.  Think about that for a minute.

            Most of that added energy has warmed the oceans.  Across the planet, the warmer ocean is killing coral reefs, the foundation of sea life.  New diseases thrive.  One of which killed the Sunflower Sea Stars, allowing the Purple Urchin population explosion, which ate 95 precent of the coastal kelp.  We see this locally.  It is not in the future, but already here.

            The rest of the added energy heats the atmosphere, causing droughts and heatwaves.  Humans can't survive when temperatures are too high.  We produce heat internally and have to shed the excess when needed.  When that isn't possible, we cook ourselves to death.

            In the last few years, parts of the planet have become lethal at times.  In the summer of 2023, Phoenix, Arizona had a full month over 100°F, and 645 people died.  Many had air conditioning, which failed under the heat stress.  In June, 2024, temperatures in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, hit 125°F, and 1,301 people died.  Similar lethal heat waves have occurred in Thailand, Pakistan, and Spain.  This is not the future, but is already happening.   

            The war in Iran is about control of oil.  Geddry writes, "In the first fourteen days of the Iran conflict, the greenhouse gas emissions exceeded what Iceland produces in an entire year.  We are burning fossil fuels to fight over fossil fuels in a region being rendered uninhabitable by the burning of fossil fuels.  If there is a more perfect illustration of self-destruction, it has yet to present itself."

            "There is a particular kind of moral failure that is worse than ignorance: the people and institutions that know exactly what is happening, and have chosen to treat it as a business opportunity."  This includes the industries and banks that profit from the fossil fuels, and the politicians they buy, who deny the climate crisis is even happening.

            But the world has already changed.  The International Energy Agency says war has structurally reduced oil demand and increased interest in renewable energy everywhere.  The shifts in global shipping and economic patterns won't change back.  Republican economic corruption and political incompetence have destroyed America's global reputation, and may cripple the party for years.  We live in interesting times!

 

Still Unresolved

                                                                                         written 19 April, 2026

                                                                                     published 26 April, 2026

      

            Chaotic current events are unfolding so quickly anything written is out of date even a few days later.  It will be more than a week before this article gets into print and the world may have changed significantly in the interval.

            Thursday, Israel and Lebanon announced a 10-day truce, which had been demanded by Iran.  Friday morning, the president announced Iran agreed to open the Strait to free flow of traffic.  Stocks jumped higher, and future oil prices dropped, reacting as if we will now return to levels before he started this war.

            Diplomacy requires conversation between equals, but the president can only act as a bully, a superior demanding obedience.  So, he reversed himself, announcing the US blockade of Iranian shipping would stay in place until there is a final deal.  That evening, Iran declared the blockade violated the ceasefire, and on Saturday, fired shots to effectively keep the Strait closed.  The cease fire will expire in a few days although new talks are scheduled.  Meanwhile, more US troops are in transit to the region.  Now entering the eighth week, this war is a long way from being settled, even though the president has said "it is over" more than 12 times already.

            The war is a matter of applying pain.  The US has killed the top layers of Iranian leadership and destroyed much of their military infrastructure.  Iran has blocked the Strait, threatening the economic stability of the entire planet.  Each side is betting the pain applied will force the other to capitulate.  The president thought a short sharp blow would be sufficient and hadn't considered any alternative.  Since that failed, he is now floundering.

            Although some oil is being transported by pipelines, blocking the Strait removed 10 percent from the global market, raising prices and creating shortages.  Spot prices for delivering actual oil are $50 percent above future prices.  Diesel is particularly sensitive and in more universal demand than gasoline, underpinning long haul trucking, rail and marine transport, construction, agriculture and industrial activities everywhere.  Europe may run out of jet fuel in a few more weeks. 

            Chevron regular in Santa Rosa is currently $6.65/gallon, and diesel is $8.65/gallon.  The president minimized this, claiming these prices are "not too high" and they will drop "very quickly" to pre-war levels.  In contrast, people who actually know about these things suggest it will be months, even years, before we get back to pre-war prices.  Regional oil and gas facilities have suffered over $60B in damages, and even the undamaged oil fields, which have been shut down during the war, will take time before production returns to previous levels.  

            Whatever the eventual war outcome, several shifts are already occurring at home and abroad.  Yet another war for oil in the Middle East has sharpened the world's intention to construct alternate forms of energy.  The economic wisdom of that path is being added to the climate imperative. 

            China seems to be the clear winner so far.  Over the last decade, they have prioritized renewable energy manufacturing and made progress reducing their dependance on fossil fuels, so their economy has taken a smaller hit.  Their export of affordable EV's has jumped 50 percent in the last month.  China has offered to install over 100 microgrid systems in Cuba, helping them respond to price increases and the US blockade there. 

            In contrast, our climate denying president is committing the US to more natural gas and nuclear power.  One is a potent climate killer and the other is the most expensive power on the grid.  Neither one can be installed quickly.  China has bet on the unfolding future and the US is mired in the vanished past.

            Reckless actions and statements by the president have alienated our allies, destroying trust America built over decades.  He even picked a fight with the Pope.  The dollar is no longer the universal commercial currency, a lost benefit for the US.  Former supporters feel betrayed.   

            Wanting a quick resolution to the war, with little concern for reality, he says whatever he believes, as if that makes it true, while Iran refutes him within a few hours.  His limitations as a person, let alone a leader, become more apparent every time he speaks.  This truth is reflected in his sinking poll numbers, and the Democratic victories in special elections.  

            Because this man represents us, we all suffer the consequences of his actions.  Let's hope America endures long enough to change that.

 

Violent Religious Fanatics

                                                                                         written 12 April, 2026

                                                                                     published 19 April, 2026

            

            It was another week of turbulent changes.  The president committed possible war crimes, threatening to destroy the entire Persian civilization, giving a Tuesday evening deadline to obey his demands.  He relented at the last hour, issuing a 2-week ceasefire, declaring progress on a deal.  His supporters claimed resounding victory by their God appointed savior.  The price of oil dipped, and the Dow rose.

            However, Iran still controls the Strait, shipping traffic is still less than 5 percent of prewar levels, and diesel in Healdsburg costs over $8 per gallon.  Actual shortages have begun in some countries.  Americans have paid an extra $17B in fuel costs, on top of the $50B for the actual war (so far).  Yet there is no money for health care.  There are major disagreements about what the "deal" is, so the chaos will continue.

            Our Secretary of War has been vocal that this war is, in part, a holy crusade by righteous Christians to remove the evil of Islamic terrorism.  He is even more specific that Evangelical Protestants are the chosen few, by excluding Catholics from Easter military prayer services.  The president has invoked God in his regular social media blasts.

            Everyone on the planet has a concept of "God".  Even the 15 percent who are atheists hold some concept of what it is they deny.  Most of humanity follows one of over 4,000 different religious sects, generally falling into five major groupings:  Judaism, Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, and Buddhism.  

             It is important to distinguish between spirituality and religion.  A person can be spiritual without being religious.  Spirituality can be understood as the personal experience and exploration of God, while religions are the manmade organizations that have grown up around a spiritual person.  Religious sects have sets of rules, holy scripture, particular to their group.  These endure throughout time because people have experiences they are trying to communicate.  Even though the original words might have been inspired, these are all concepts, not the actual spiritual experience.  As the Buddhists say, the finger that points to the moon is not the moon.

            Sects within the same religion can have different interpretations of the same words.  There are fundamentalists within each sect who believe their words to be the only sacred truth.  Rigid within their scriptural concepts, religious fanatics will go to war, not only against other religions, but even against others of their same basic religious orientation.  For example, the Sunni/Shia split in Islam and the Catholic/Protestant split in Christianity have perpetrated untold deaths for centuries, with everyone convinced that "God is on their side".

            In contrast, some sects refuse to even apply a word to God, understanding such a limited concept can't possibly encompass the totality of spiritual reality, and only leads people astray.  There are mystics in every faith who understand the limitations of word concepts, treating them as metaphors, allowing them to investigate the experience at the core of every faith.   

            Transcending the differences between sects and religions, there are God concepts common to them all: Transcendence (an ultimate reality beyond ordinary physical existence), Benevolence (fundamentally good), Omniscience (all-knowing), Omnipotence (all-powerful), and Omnipresent (present everywhere).  Such wide spread commonality indicates the experience behind the words is significant and meaningful.  

            A version of the Golden Rule is also common to them all, pointing to a unity reality where separation is just a relative, limited perception.  From this unity perspective, hating anyone is hating yourself.  Killing anyone is killing yourself.  This makes a violent religious fanatic a self-loathing suicidal lunatic, no matter what religion they profess.

            It is easy to see that violent Islamic fanatics who kill in the name of their God are evil terrorists.  It is perhaps harder to see that violent Christians fanatics who kill in the name of their God are evil terrorists as well.  

            In "A New Earth", Eckhart Tolle says "There is only one perpetrator of evil on the planet: human unconsciousness.  That realization is true forgiveness.  With forgiveness, your victim identity dissolves, and your true power emerges -- the power Presence.  Instead of blaming the darkness, you bring in the light."

            I don't identify as a Christian, as that religion has spread too much hate for centuries.  But I am inspired by Christ, who taught that there are two primary commandments:  Love God, and Love Each Other.  To my mind, anyone who hates or kills, and claims they are Christian, has completely missed the mark, the true meaning of sin. 

 

Painted Into A Corner

                                                                                           written 5 April, 2026

                                                                                     published 12 April, 2026

 

            On April Fool's Day, the president gave a speech about his war of choice in Iran.  It was mercifully short, running only 19 minutes.  He repeated many of his previous statements, with little news.  

            Iran was about to attack us with nuclear tipped missiles.  Nobody had the courage to remove Iran before him.  Our military has totally demolished Iran's military capacity.  We have already won, but need maybe another month to finish the project.  He may attack on the ground, or he may just declare victory and leave.  We don't need to open the Straits of Hormuz, because we have more oil than anyone else.  The Straits will open by themselves, and gasoline prices will quickly return to normal.  

            He clearly wants this to be over, but wishing doesn't make it so.  He has always been delusional.  In his first term he promised Covid would quickly go away by itself.  

            Even though we outspend Iran 1,000 to 1, they recently shot down 2 US jets and still attack shipping in the Straits, allowing only 5 percent of the transits relative to pre-war levels.  This poorly planned war has abruptly removed almost one fifth of the fossil fuels from the market, affecting the entire world.

            As I write, a gallon of Chevron regular in Ukiah is now $5.69, and diesel is $7.65.  Jet fuel has doubled in cost, forcing drastic reductions in flights.  United Airlines is expecting these high prices to last through 2027.  But these increases are based on expected future costs, not yet reflecting actual lack of crude oil availability.

            Since most oil takes as much as a month in transit, real shortages are only now beginning to hit the global economy, and prices could soon jump much higher.  Some countries are already cutting back their economies to survive on what fuel is available.  The longer this closure lasts, the worse it will all get.  

            The president was correct when he stated the US produces more oil than any other country, 13.6 million barrels a day.  But he lied when he said we are energy independent, because we consume 20 million barrels per day.  Much of our current production is fracked oil, which is too light to refine into diesel without adding imported heavy oil.  Furthermore, our refineries are tailored to the historic blends in place when they were built, and can't be easily shifted to refine a different mix of fuels.  As a result, we are required to import significant amounts of oil, even if little of that oil comes through the Straits of Hormuz.

            However, it is foolish to think that domestic oil will only be sold to domestic buyers.  Oil companies are capitalists, serving shareholders, not consumers, and will sell to the highest bidders, no matter where they live.

            Fossil fuels are not the only essential materials being choked off with the Straits closed.  Global supplies of phosphate, helium, and ammonia are down 30 percent, with sulfur down 45 percent and urea down 50 percent.  These are critical for production of plastics, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and fertilizer for food.  Domestic agriculture is being hit by excessive costs due to tariffs, rising prices on diesel, and now expensive fertilizer, yet the price of their product is fixed.  Iran holds an asymmetrical advantage. 

            There are several energy alternatives, but none can respond rapidly enough to supply the abrupt shortfall.  Conventional nuclear takes a decade.  Small modular reactors don't actually exist yet.  New oil, natural gas, and coal production also take time.  Solar is the quickest, but even that is inadequate.  Reducing consumption by reducing the size of the economy (recession), seems to be the only option.

            With arrogance and contempt for opinions other than his own, the president has painted himself into a corner, and risks crashing the global economy.  His options are very limited.  

            Expanding the war with "boots on the ground" will be expensive, bloody, of unknown duration, massively unpopular, with unexpected consequences.  Declaring victory and walking away with the Straits still closed leaves the global economy in shambles and destroys America's reputation.  Who will trust such a short-sighted leader?  He could surrender and admit his mistake, taking responsibility for what he did, which would be a first for a world superpower.  But his fragile ego won't allow him to take this path.     

            Perhaps enough Republicans will find the courage to remove him as incompetent before he destroys everything.  What are the odds?

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unintended Consequences

                                                                                       written 29 March, 2026

                                                                                       published 5 April, 2026

 

            I became aware of the climate crisis 30 years ago.  Science has blind spots, but I believe it is a relevant portrayal of physical reality.  The computer I use to write this and the electricity I take for granted, validate the scientific perspective.  Science says we are cooking our planet.  Our president says the climate crisis is a hoax.  In my opinion, he is a liar and/or a fool.  

            But to give him credit, he is a charming huckster, telling people what they want to hear, unrestrained by reality.  This extends well past his core MAGA minority.  One evening, stumped by Iran's continued resistance, the president threated to destroy their civilian infrastructure (a war crime), if they didn't open the Straits to shipping within 48 hours.  The price of oil jumped and the stock market dropped, because people believed he would escalate the war.  

            A few hours before the deadline expired, the president relented, extending his ultimatum for five more days, stating that Iran had begun negotiations and "reached significant agreements".  The price of oil dropped and stocks went up, because people believed him.  It is important to note that millions of dollars were made on this swing, indicating insider trading.  However, within a few minutes of the president's "agreement" announcement, Iran said there were no such talks.  

            For the moment, the US plans to hold off attacking for another 10 days.  This is probably true, not because negotiations are happening, but perhaps because the additional troops moving into the area are still in transit.  

            Speculation about what, where, and the duration of a US ground attack are all over the place.  But history and experienced voices suggest it won't be quick or bloodless, and could expand the war uncontrollably.  Meanwhile, now into the second month, shipping through the Straits is just a fraction of the former volume.

            Much like the boy who cried "wolf", people are finally beginning to distrust the president.  Once a person is recognized as a liar, they begin to lose power.  The stock market has now continued to drop, the price of oil has begun to climb again, and retail gasoline and diesel prices keep inching higher every week.  

            One relatively unmentioned consequence of this war is the impact on the AI building frenzy.  Manufacture of the advanced microchips essential for this boom involve over 1,000 different companies, in 70 different countries.  Critical materials are now blocked, and shipping cost for everything are now greater, making the delivery and economics much more uncertain.  

            Even before the war, the AI investment boom was getting shacky because investors want more immediate financial return on their massive investments.  To support the AI fantasy, data centers need to be built more rapidly than construction of energy systems can supply.  The concerns about the enormous energy AI centers require will increase now that fossil fuels are more expensive.  

            The AI economic frenzy is an elaborate house of cards, carefully balanced on assumptions of stability and predictability, which has just been hit by the reality shock of war.  When the AI financial bubble pops, the stock market will react much like when the 2007 housing bubble popped.  This could happen before the November elections.

            Another consequence of this war is the shift away from oil trades denominated in US dollars, which has been the industry standard for over 50 years, an enormous economic advantage for the US.  However, our risky debt structure, our recent erratic political actions, and the slow change in global power dynamics, make the dollar less attractive, and it is being replaced by the Chinese yuan.  This probably won't be a complete shift, but the US monopoly may have already been broken. 

            While the war has captivated the news cycle the climate crisis hasn't gone away just because the president said so.  Atmospheric CO2 content is now 431ppm, a more than 50 percent increase from preindustrial times.  This size shift moved us from the last ice age to the present interglacial period when human civilization developed.  But the current shift is happening 10 time faster.

            We had June heat in March, melting the snow, drying the land, setting the stage for a busy fire summer.  Hawaii has been flooded.  The mid-west is on fire.  The northeast is buried in snow.  Corpus Christi, Texas is running out of water, and Phoenix, Arizona is getting close.

            The climate crisis is not a hoax, but our stable genius president is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Becoming Aware Of Ego

                                                                                       written 22 March, 2026

                                                                                   published 29 March, 2026

 

            Rene' Descartes declared centuries ago: "I think, therefore I am," supporting the idea that thinking is the foundation of "self".  In "A New Earth", Eckhart Tolle describes this thinking self as our "ego", residing in the left brain, where differences are determined.  Ego lives by defining itself relative to "other".  It claims credit for everything, good or bad, to increase its own sense of value.  A healthy, appropriate ego, is an asset in everyday living.  However, being completely identified with ego is pathological, thriving on suffering.

            Tolle writes, "the ego cannot distinguish between a situation and its interpretation of and reaction to that situation.  A person in the grip of ego doesn't recognize suffering as suffering, but looks on it as the only appropriate response in any given situation.  The ego in its blindness is incapable of seeing the suffering it inflicts on itself and on others.  Negative states such as anger, hatred, and jealousy, are not recognized as negative but as totally justified and misperceived not as self-created but as caused by someone else or some exterior factor.  This strengthens the ego, increases the sense of "otherness", and builds a fortress like position of "rightness".  Unhappiness is an ego-created mental emotional disease that has reached epidemic proportions."

            Our president is an example of the devastation wrought by total identification with ego.  He takes credit for everything and responsibility for nothing.  He acts on his own whims, without regard for consequences, repeatedly telling us he is the only one who can save us from the disasters he creates.  The most recent being the war he started in Iran, claiming it is "already over, but we need to continue to finish the job", which the Pentagon thinks will cost at least an additional $200 billion.  

            Last June, the president stated Iran's nuclear capacity was "totally obliterated", yet now claims Iran was a few weeks away from launching nuclear tipped missiles at the US.  This assessment was denied by his own Director of National Intelligence as she testified before Congress.

            The president says "nobody knew" the Iranians would close the Straits of Hormuz, so had no plan in place when they did.  He wants help from other countries, while saying the US needs no help, and insults them in the same speech.

            Now four weeks in, oil costs $112/barrel today, gasoline prices in Ukiah are edging above $6/gallon, with diesel moving toward $7/gallon.  The stock market has dropped 10 percent, and interest rates are up.  

            The longer the Straits are blocked, the worse everything will get.  The president originally said this will be quick, 2-4 weeks.  Now the word is it might only last another month, or into the fall, and thousands more Marines are headed to the war zone.

            Damage has already been done to fuel facilities that will take 3-5 years to begin operation again.  Middle East production is being reduced because there is no way to ship the product, and restarting may take months.  Reduction in fertilizer will impact fall harvests.  Insurance rates for ships transiting the Straits have jumped by a factor of 100, and may not drop back before the end of the year.  Supply chains have been massively disrupted.  As inflation and prices rise, the entire Republican political structure gets weaker.

            This is ego run amuck.  

            What can a person do?  In addition to any political or social actions one might take, there is a great deal of inner work possible.  While Descartes believed his thoughts defined him, Jean-Paul Sartre pointed out we can be aware of the thoughts in our head, and are therefore more than our thoughts.  That awareness comes from experiencing "being alive".  

            Tolle says that the moment we become aware of our egoic thinking, we begin to loosen our identification with it.  This is the process of taming our own ego.  At every moment, we have the possibility to notice our thinking.  With practice, this shift becomes easier.  We become more at peace in the moment, open to more intelligent way to respond to what is happening, rather than acting out of old, and perhaps, inappropriate egoic patterns.

            The ego is very clever, living on negativity and differences, but any gains are short lived, and eventually self-defeating.  Cleverness divides, intelligence includes.  Despite the egoic insanity we see in our president, we can use that to become aware of our own egoic imbalance, using his dysfunction to improve our own reality.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Such A Leader

                                                                                       written 15 March, 2026

                                                                                    published 22 March, 2026

 

            On Friday, March 13th, the Ukiah Daily Journal included a column by Marc Thiessen, a loyal presidential supporter, defining victory in Iran.  He assumes this will be quick, a historic end to terrorism in the Middle East, the beginning of a new age of harmony.  Iran's military will be destroyed, the government will collapse, and the Iranian people will install a government answerable to American.  Maybe Thiessen's wishful thinking will come to pass, but it reads like a first draft for a badly scripted reality TV show.

            In actual reality, the president began the war (not an excursion) without building support from Congress, the American people, or any of our allies, other than Israel.  There was no planning for removing endangered Americans from the region.  There was no planning for the Iranian response to close the Straits of Hormuz to shipping.  He acted as though the Iranians would just fold up because he hit them hard.  These are not the actions of a planner, but of a petulant toddler.

             No matter how it unfolds, we have broken the Middle East, again, and will have to live with the consequences.  We use $6M missiles to destroy $20K drones.  Tanker traffic has been halted, more from lack of shipping insurance than actual damage to ships so far.  This abruptly cuts the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and fertilizer out of the region and food into the region.  Some regional refineries are being attacked by Iran, hindering production, and others are shutting down because there is no place to send their product.  Restarting such complex systems can take months. Benchmark crude oil is now solidly above $100/barrel, up from $60 a month ago, creating increased global economic chaos.  The longer the conflict last, the worse it is for Republicans, as their leader started this with no end in mind.

            Beyond the professed war on terrorism, there are darker reasons behind why this war may be happening now.  

            As more Epstein files are finally being released, and new information arrives, such as the recent testimony by Richard Kahn, Epstein's accountant, those chickens are coming home to roost.  Since even the president's most diehard supporters don't like shielding pedophiles, this war creates a distraction.  

            The president avoids prosecution by virtue of being in office, which gives him incentive to become ruler for life.  However, Republican policies are increasingly unpopular, and they may lose control of the House, and perhaps the Senate, in midterms this fall, if a fair election is held.  The FBI fired the people working to control domestic actions by foreign terrorists.  Perhaps the president is hoping Iranian sleeper cells will create havoc.  Or possibly popular protests will become violent.  Either event would be an excuse for him to declare martial law, and cancel elections, already on his wish list.  These are possibilities serving the needs of a desperate corrupt incompetent.  

            But the world doesn't revolve around just this president.  Now that America has demonstrated that it is OK to ignore international laws, and destroy anyone who offends us, other countries may act in kind.  China has stated for decades that Taiwan is part of China, and it is only a matter of time before they reabsorb that island the way they took back Hong Cong.  

            The US has committed much of our military to the Persian Gulf, and is busy blowing up our finite stock of missiles, and bombs.  Imagine if next Monday we read China has invaded Taiwan.  What could the US do?  Do you think our president would be capable of dealing with an adversary that is more of a match than the light weight adversaries we have invaded recently?  Taiwan produces 95 percent of the advanced semiconductors in the world.  War there would halt that immediately.  Added to the current energy chaos, this would immediately crash the global economy.  

            I don't believe the president is a Chinese agent, even though he is acting like one.  His war on domestic renewable power systems enriches his friends in the short term, but abandons the entire future to China, which is the world leader in solar, batteries, and EV's.  But I do believe he is such an incompetent fool that he has disrupted international cooperation, created chaos in the Middle East, and spiked energy prices at record levels, all for personal aggrandizement.  China may just take advantage of that gift, without even having to recruit him.  Such a leader.

How The Story Begins

                                                                                         written 8 March, 2026

                                                                                             for 15 March, 2026

 

            As I write, we are now into the second week of the latest Republican initiated war in the Middle East, this time focused on Iran.  The president originally stated this would only take a few weeks (much like Putin invading Ukraine), but they are now suggesting it might last into the fall.  The impact is already being felt.  With the Persian Gulf closed to tankers, global oil and natural gas prices jumped 50 percent, estimated to perhaps double again, and the stock market is declining.  The administration is still struggling to state why this war started, with numerous excuses floated, and sometimes reversed within a day. 

            Republicans have normally been good at presenting a unified party line.  Remember the relentless drum beat a few decades ago, stating the reason to invade Iraq was the "weapons of mass destruction"?  Of course, there weren't any.  It was about oil.  But we spent a decade, $1.6 trillion dollars, and almost 4,500 dead US soldiers.  This time around, the story slowly emerging is that we needed to "destroy the terrorist threat".

            Iran has, in fact, spent decades funding attacks all over the world, in order to achieve their national goals, and the US has been a primary target.  But any story can be spun depending on where you begin the story and what gets included in the narrative.

            For example, if we start the story a few weeks ago, the country of Iran experienced a surprise attack (like Pearl Harbor), by the US, with the world's largest military, and Israel, the only nuclear power in the region, which killed their national leaders and destroyed their defensive capacity, even though they were in the process of working out diplomatic solutions to their problems.  That story makes the US less of a hero, and more like a blood thirsty imperial bully.

            In contrast, for decades, the Republican story of Iran starts in 1979, when the established government of Iran was overthrown by a fanatical Islamic regime, which immediately oppressed their citizens and enforced strict religious purity laws.  Since then, Iran has built the largest military in the region, developed missile, and now drone, capabilities, and spent billions funding "national liberation movements", fighting a holy war in the Middle East, as well as targeted attacks and assassinations all over the world.  Western nations designated all these groups as terrorist organizations.  This story makes Iran look like a rouge nation assaulting the stability of western nations.

             However, if we start the story in 1944, it changes again.  Mohammad Mosaddegh was elected by popular vote to the Majles, the Iranian parliament.  He was a vocal advocate for nationalizing the Iranian oil reserves, which had been controlled by the British Petroleum Company for decades, to the economic detriment of Iran.  In March, 1951, the elected parliament nationalized the oil resources, and Mosaddegh was appointed prime minister.

            This action offended British interests, which, in August, 1953, supported the Shah's attempt to remove Mosaddegh.  But popular support was behind Mosaddegh, and the Shah was forced to flee the country.  A few days later, with US support this time, a coup overthrew the elected government, restored the Shah, and Mosaddegh was imprisoned, spending the rest of his life under house arrest.

            Control of Iranian oil was returned to the British, and now American, oil companies.  The Shah became the US agent in the Middle East.  With US funding, he built the largest military in the region, and established a repressive, US trained, security police, killing and torturing anyone who disagreed with the Shah.

            In early 1978, after decades of repression, popular uprisings began.  The Shah was eventually forced to flee the country once again.  As all the moderate politician had been killed or left the country, what remained were Islamic fundamentalists, which formed the Islamic Republic of Iran in April, 1979.  A few months later, the US allowed the ailing Shah into America for medical help.  An outraged Iranian populous stormed the US embassy in Tehran, taking 52 Americans captive, which is where the Republican story starts.

            The US was responsible for creating the Islamic state of Iran, complete with terrorist inclinations, because we wanted the oil resources.  We taught the Shah repressive tactics, and, with our support, he oppressed the larger Iranian population.  Oil, money, power, and ego were the coin of the realm then, as they are today.  We don't seem to learn.  But the story isn't over yet.

 

 

 

Age Of Disaster

                                                                                         written 1 March, 2026

                                                                                     published 8 March, 2026

 

             In physics, a shock wave results when forces change the world faster than is can respond smoothly.  The January, 2025 Los Angeles fires created a cultural shock wave.  

            In the new book "Firestorm", Jake Soboroff describes his live news reporting on those fires.  The winds were so intense, and the land so dry, a fire hurricane engulfed the city, overwhelming all efforts to stop it until the winds died down.  The numbers are grim.  Five fires, 40,000 acres burned, 12,300 structures destroyed, 32 dead, more than 200,000 people displaced, with cost estimates over $21B and counting, the most expensive in California history.  

            Soboroff interviewed Captain Jonathan White, of the Health and Human Services Strategic Preparedness and Response.  Based on his years of disaster investigation experience he believes we are in an age of disasters.  "This is the result of four powerful forces coming together: the global climate emergency, aging infrastructure disintegration, changes in how we live, and politics of blame and disinformation".

            Over decades, human actions have changed the climate, amplifying normal conditions, enhancing the extreme drought and high winds that drove these fires.  Infrastructures, such as fire equipment and personnel, water reservoirs and urban water mains, are decades old with massive deferred maintenance and sometimes stressed under normal conditions.  This was no match for the magnitude of the fires.  As cities expand into new wildlands, fire impact increases.  Even as the fires burned, and resources were focused on saving lives, the president elect spewed out his trade mark invectives and lies.

            White said "Democrats are wrong that what we are facing is a future threat.  Republicans are wrong in saying there is no threat.  The threat is here."  Unfortunately, shock inducing changes are not limited to climate issues.

            The Artificial Intelligence (AI) explosion, already disrupting the economy, is rapidly accelerating.  Perhaps half the 70 million mid-level office workers could be fired in the next year or two.  These are mostly good paying jobs, so personal bankruptcies will spike.  The impact will spread as businesses servicing these people will also be affected.  Recent college graduates will face increased unemployment.  College loan defaults will grow.  Office parks will become vacant, depressing real estate values.

            That is the result of AI working, but the entire AI bubble may burst before such extensive damage can be done.  Investors are growing concerned there is little to no return on their massive investment, and the rising value of the stock market is dependent on AI investment.  The frenetic pace of AI data center development demands an equally rapid spike in electrical power production and water for cooling, however, in the real world, these resources can't grow nearly as fast as expected.  The resulting "correction" could crash the economy like the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007.

            Another impending shock is called the "Kessler syndrome".  In 1978, NASA scientist Donald Kessler said "the more stuff we put in orbit, the higher the risk that some of that collides, creating a cascade of collisions, distributing the debris around the entire planet."  Such a runaway cascade could make productive space orbits unusable for generations.  This kind of event is portrayed in the 2013 movie "Gravity", starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. 

            Material orbiting below 320 miles altitude is slowed by atmospheric drag and soon falls to Earth and burns up on re-entry.  Satellites with commercial and military utility must last longer, and orbit between 320-600 miles altitude.  About 14,000 satellites are now in orbit at those altitudes, 2/3 of which are the Starlink fleet.  This is where a cascade could start even if we stop adding anything else.

            As of March, 2025, the debris density at that altitude already exceeds the runaway threshold, with more than 50,000 objects larger than 2.5" and more than 1.2 million larger than .25", all of which can cause damage, given the relative speeds involved.

            Starlink reports currently making 800 course correction every day to avoid debris.  If satellites lose the capacity to correct, perhaps due to a large solar flare, the first collision would happen within 5 days, up from 5 months 8 years ago.

            The climate, AI, and space debris problems have a common root: domination by exclusive gain strategies while ignoring impacts on the whole system.  In a unity reality, any solution that doesn't include everything, isn't really a solution, but just part of the problem.  Case in point, another Republican president starting another middle east war.

            

  

 

 

 

When The Leader Lies

                                                                                   written 22 February, 2026

                                                                                     published 1 March, 2026

 

            When our current president was elected the first time, it was documented that he lied over 30,000 times in those four years, one every 45 minutes he was awake.  Lying is a form of cheating on reality.  Chronic liars and cheaters believe everyone else lies and cheats as well, reflecting their poor view of humanity.  

            The president may know he is lying, or is just so disconnected from reality that he actually believes everything he says.  In either case, anyone expecting constancy, or honesty, from the man will be disappointed sooner or later.  This is difficult to bear in anyone, but a complete disaster when the leader of our country is a liar and a cheat.  His small lies, such as being a stable genius, or being our only savior, can be ignored as simple bloated egotism.  But his big lies have costly consequences.

            The lie that the 2020 election was stolen rises from his egoic assumptions that he can never be a loser and everyone else cheats.  This resonated with enough of his followers that they stormed the Capital to change the results of the election.  A few people died, many were injured, and the global image of the US took a hit.  This lie is still active today, even though 70 lawsuits, and multiple ballot recounts, have shown Biden won in fact.

            The tariff issue is a collection of lies.  The president lied that other countries rip off the US, yet we consume 6 time our share of global resources.  Our trade imbalances, the supposed proof of the rip off, come from US companies investing overseas to maximize profits from cheaper labor, combined with our voracious consumer economy. 

            The president lied that other nations would pay the costs, yet tariffs are a tax paid by US consumers, a reality known to economists of all political orientation, and recently affirmed by a report from the New York Federal Reserve.  But this administration is undeterred by reality, preferring "alternative facts" whenever the truth is too inconvenient.  In his first administration, surrounded by a few competent people, the president was hindered in his freedom of action.  This time loyalty is preferred over competence.  Rather than discuss the facts, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett quickly condemned the recent Fed report and called for the authors to be prosecuted.

            The president lied that he could unilaterally apply tariffs anywhere he wanted, yet the Constitution gives Congress the power to make tariffs, not the president, a point recently affirmed by the Republican majority Supreme Court.  In response, the president berated two Justices he appointed, and they immediately began receiving death threats.

            The president's tariffs have cost Americans over $200B, disrupted global trade, alienated long term allies, and thrown uncertainty into the entire business community because tariffs change on presidential whim.  The Supreme Court decision means all that money has to be refunded, a complicated process on its own, and there is no guarantee the president will even abide by the ruling.

            While the tariff lie is expensive, the big lie, that the climate crisis is a hoax, risks killing us all, because we have no more time to waste.  With the power of the president pushing this lie, the US has halted all efforts to address the issue, stopped all research on the issue, and even banned all mention of the issue.  He has also pressured other nation to stop responding to the issue.  Instead, hundreds of billions of dollars are being redirected to investments in obsolete, expensive, inefficient, and polluting energy sources.  He wants the Pentagon to run on coal.

            This abrupt change in direction costs the economy for all the investments now stalled, as well as all the investments needed to retool.  The fact that his decisions are out of step with popular sentiment, and the direction of the rest of the world, confuses the business community.  Does it make sense to manufacture internal combustion cars that the rest of the world is moving away from?  Can any domestic company survive without export trade?

            Just because the president believes a fantasy, are we all required to live within that fantasy as well?  The Republican party leadership has deferred to the almost all the president's whims, and don't seem to be willing to address the truth: the president is not fit to lead.  But Americans seem to be waking up from the dream being sold to them.