One Man's Ego

                                                                                            written 3 May, 2026

                                                                                      published 10 May, 2026

           

            In August, 1945, the quantum physics theory that all matter is a form of energy was validated when the U.S. destroyed two Japanese cities.  Nuclear bombs, 1,000 times more powerful than previous weapons, began a new chapter in humanity's historic obsession with domination through power.  As no country wanted to be at the mercy of their adversaries, other countries soon joined the club, which today includes: the United States, Russia, England, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.

            The world recognized the need to control this new level of destruction, and the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty helped slow the spread.  189 of the 193 nations have become parties to the treaty.  However, India, Israel, and Pakistan have never agreed, and North Korea withdrew in 2003.

            Atoms For Peace, producing electricity from commercial nuclear reactors, put a benign face of nuclear technology, but made weapons control more difficult.  While nuclear reactors are not nuclear bombs, they have some fundamental infrastructure similarities, and potential bomb material is generated within commercial nuclear "waste".

            Iran's enmity toward the U.S. began in 1953, when we helped overthrow their elected leader over oil issues, and installed the former Shah as their tyrannical dictator to act as our agent in the region.  The Iranian nuclear industry began when the U.S. built them a small research nuclear reactor in 1970.  However, plans to build 20 power reactors were halted by the 1979 Islamic revolution, which solidified American enmity toward Iran.  America applied economic sanctions and "froze" (stole) $12 billions of Iranian state funds then on deposit in western banks, worth $55 billions today.

            With Russian help, Iran then spent decades developing their nuclear infrastructure, asserting a right to have nuclear electrical power.  But concerns grew that they were getting close to building nuclear weapons. 

            Both sides were entrenched in their mutual mistrust and hatred, making effective agreement very difficult.  However, when Obama was president, the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany began negotiations with Iran, offering incentives to constrain their nuclear ambitions.  After 20 months of talks, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in July 2015.

            Iran gave up 98 percent of its enriched uranium.  Their uranium mining, production, enrichment, and research were restricted and monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog.  Inspectors had unfettered access to Iranian nuclear facilities, ensuring they pursued only civilian work.  If Iran was found to be non-compliant, UN sanctions would immediately resume.  In return, Iran was granted economic sanction relief and their frozen funds were to be returned.  

            For several years, the IAEA certified Iran was keeping its commitments.  The threat was contained, a testament to the power of diplomacy. 

            However, in May 2018, seventeen months into his first term, our new president's ego decided the JCPOA was a "terrible deal".  Perhaps he wanted to destroy anything Obama had achieved.  Perhaps he was just wanted attention.  Based on nothing, without consulting the other parties to the treaty, without consulting Congress, he withdrew the U.S. government from the JCPOA and reimposed oil and banking sanctions.   

            Iran, claiming the U.S. government had demonstrated it was untrustworthy, declared it would resume enrichment without any limitations, and barred international inspectors.  By early 2023 it had stockpiled enough enriched material to potentially approach nuclear breakout.  This was the disaster everyone had feared, unilaterally created by our president, on a whim.  

            On 13 June, 2025, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iranian nuclear targets and personnel, which ended 12 days later when the U.S. dropped "bunker busters" on the underground enrichment facilities.  The president announced he "completely and totally obliterated" their nuclear capacity, but the Pentagon assessed it had been set back maybe 2 years.  

            Having welched on a working deal, and then failed to destroy the resulting Iranian nuclear program, the president doubled down, encouraged by hawks in our government.  On 28 February, 2026, the U.S. and Israel began a larger set of attacks on Iran, again without consulting any allies or Congress.  This time Iran responded, attacking regional fossil fuel infrastructures and military installations.  More significantly, they closed the Strait of Hormuz.

             Despite this being totally expected, the president had no effective response.  Ten weeks on, global trade is still disrupted, continuing to get worse the longer the blockage lasts.  Americans are still relatively sheltered, but that won't last much longer.  We are at the mercy of one man's ego, which thrives on chaos and anger.  

 

Meanwhile

                                                                                         written 26 April, 2026

                                                                                        published 3 May, 2026

            

            Into the ninth week of war, the world holds its breath.  The president extended the ceasefire indefinitely, but each side has fired upon opposing ships, so the Strait is still effectively closed.  The Pentagon says it could take six months to clear the mines, and Iran is laying new ones.  Oil futures edge higher, gasoline and diesel prices increase slowly, while stocks are holding steady.     

            The president says he "feels no pressure" and has "all the time in the world."  Claiming once again that progress is being made, he is sending his best team to negotiate a deal, his son-in-law, hedge fund manager Kushner, and real estate developer Witkoff.  Everyone hopes new talks will resolve the issue before actual shortages begin crashing economies across the planet.  

            However, Iran refuses to attend, stating its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it calls "Washington’s excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade.”  

            The talks have been canceled for now, and the Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire seems to be failing.

            Meanwhile, the war is not the only situation getting worse. 

            The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a UK chartered professional body for actuaries, which Wikipedia defines as "professionals with advanced mathematical skills who deal with the measurement and management of risk and uncertainty."  These people look at the real world to price catastrophic risk, providing the foundation for all insurance and businesses.

             "The Oldest Debt", by Mary Geddry, using IFoA data, states that while the war distracts attention, "the planet’s climate system, the living, breathing infrastructure upon which every human right, every economy, every civilization, and every future generation depends, is moving toward thresholds that no election can reverse and no military can defend against.  This is not a prediction.  It is already happening."

            "The physics of climate change do not respond to election cycles, diplomatic communiqués, or quarterly earnings reports. They respond to the laws of thermodynamics. And the thermodynamics are not negotiating."

            The planet is measurably warmer, due to the increased insulating effect of adding more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  The additional energy is equivalent to 1,000 nuclear explosions every second for the last 50 years.  Think about that for a minute.

            Most of that added energy has warmed the oceans.  Across the planet, the warmer ocean is killing coral reefs, the foundation of sea life.  New diseases thrive.  One of which killed the Sunflower Sea Stars, allowing the Purple Urchin population explosion, which ate 95 precent of the coastal kelp.  We see this locally.  It is not in the future, but already here.

            The rest of the added energy heats the atmosphere, causing droughts and heatwaves.  Humans can't survive when temperatures are too high.  We produce heat internally and have to shed the excess when needed.  When that isn't possible, we cook ourselves to death.

            In the last few years, parts of the planet have become lethal at times.  In the summer of 2023, Phoenix, Arizona had a full month over 100°F, and 645 people died.  Many had air conditioning, which failed under the heat stress.  In June, 2024, temperatures in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, hit 125°F, and 1,301 people died.  Similar lethal heat waves have occurred in Thailand, Pakistan, and Spain.  This is not the future, but is already happening.   

            The war in Iran is about control of oil.  Geddry writes, "In the first fourteen days of the Iran conflict, the greenhouse gas emissions exceeded what Iceland produces in an entire year.  We are burning fossil fuels to fight over fossil fuels in a region being rendered uninhabitable by the burning of fossil fuels.  If there is a more perfect illustration of self-destruction, it has yet to present itself."

            "There is a particular kind of moral failure that is worse than ignorance: the people and institutions that know exactly what is happening, and have chosen to treat it as a business opportunity."  This includes the industries and banks that profit from the fossil fuels, and the politicians they buy, who deny the climate crisis is even happening.

            But the world has already changed.  The International Energy Agency says war has structurally reduced oil demand and increased interest in renewable energy everywhere.  The shifts in global shipping and economic patterns won't change back.  Republican economic corruption and political incompetence have destroyed America's global reputation, and may cripple the party for years.  We live in interesting times!