Form And Space

                                                                                          written 24 May, 2026

                                                                                      published 31 May, 2026

 

            When you look up at the dark night sky, you immediately notice any finite forms giving off light: planes, planets, or stars.  Your perception is tuned to notice differences, so these objects immediately capture your attention.  But the only reason you can see them is their contrast against the vast wholeness of dark space in between.  You don't usually perceive the space between the forms, but that background is essential to perception.  This is the relationship between form and space. 

            Examples of this form/space dynamic are everywhere.  French composer Claude Debussy, once said, "music is the silence between the notes."  We focus on the form of notes creating the music, which are defined by silent spaces that we often overlook. 

            As you read this, any meaning in the words comes from the relationship between the marks forming the letters and the empty background, which gives power to the written word.  We totally focus on the form of the words, usually unaware of the background space.

            In "A New Earth", Eckhart Tolle points out there is a similar form/space dynamic in our thinking process.  He suggests the human ego is the root of most of our cultural dysfunction.  Specifically, we have become identified with the thoughts in our head, our ego, believing that is "who we are".  In reality thoughts are an artifact of mind.  We are not our thoughts, but a being thinking those thoughts.  However, we easily confuse our identity with the constancy of thought.  

            But if you pay close attention, the stream of thoughts has gaps, where one thought ends and another begins, like punctuation in a sentence.  These can be very short, and easily missed in the torrent of thinking.  But by choosing to pay attention, we can notice the gaps, which will then expand in duration.  We can become aware of being present, noticing as thinking forms occurs, rather than being identified with the thoughts themselves.  

            Thoughts are forms that happen against the background space of experiencing awareness.  As we increasingly experience being aware, our identification with our thoughts, our ego, diminishes.  What soon becomes clear is that thinking is always about something that happened in the past, or something that might happen in the future, while awareness happens in the moment.  

            Since reality only happens in the moment, never the past or future, being aware in the moment means being able to respond more appropriately to reality.  When we are lost in the thoughts of past or future, our responses to reality are constrained, distorted, and often inappropriate.  Appropriate response to reality is obviously a benefit for an individual, but applies at the social level as well.

            In my opinion, there are two huge issues currently threatening all of humanity: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the climate crisis.  These both result from prioritizing form over space, ego over awareness. 

            The 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement was a solution the whole world wanted: preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, a goal even our president claims is important.  This resulted from years of negotiation between leaders and experts from seven different nations, and it was verified to be working.  

            But eight years ago, only three years after being signed, our president decided to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement, unilaterally deciding it was a "bad deal".  Rather than considering the space of international relations that we all inhabit, his ego thought form prevailed, operating completely oblivious to the larger reality.  

            Iran felt betrayed, viewing the U.S. as an untrustworthy adversary, and began pursuing nuclear capacity to defend against an international bully, potentially creating the horror everyone had tried to prevent.  The bombing last June, and the larger attack this March, failed to get back to conditions that existed before the president made his decision to withdraw.  Furthermore, an aggrieved Iran exercised their geographical situational power, and closed the Strait, throwing the global economy into increasing disarray. 

            The climate crisis results from an economic model that prioritizes profit for a few, a form of ego, at the expense of all life on Earth, the larger reality space.  While this crisis is slower to manifest that the Strait closure, the impact is much more widespread, with a solution even more difficult that the one with Iran.

            As long as our leaders continue to operate from their limited ego forms, the larger reality will continue to collapse.  Republicans demonstrably have no answers.  Time to vote for change.

 

 

Storm Warning

                                                                                          written 17 May, 2026

                                                                                      published 24 May, 2026

 

            Almost three months ago, the president started the war on Iran.  Iran responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and shipping from the Persian Gulf dropped 95 percent, virtually eliminating a fifth of the global oil supply. Pipelines and overland trucking have allowed some oil to move, but the shortage is still significant.  Published crude oil prices have already jumped from $65/barrel to $104/barrel, and we can all see the impact at the pump.

            But this is only part of the story.  The prices quoted are paper prices, distinct from "dated" prices for delivery of physical oil.  Before the war, dated prices were usually close to paper prices.  But the abrupt closure prioritized having the physical oil over future deliveries, so dated oil jumped an additional $30-$50/barrel.  In recent days this physical oil premium has declined some, due to buyer reliance on stored inventory and hope the conflict will resolve quickly.  But that hope is fading as the stalemate grinds on, and all storage is finite.

            What we have experienced so far is war induced price inflation, with adequate product still available.  The chapter beginning now is an actual reduction in supply.  But the reduction will not be experienced evenly and prices may spike even higher.  Rural areas will be hit harder, as their economic clout is smaller. 

            Here in California, a third of our oil in produced in state and the rest is imported by sea, because there are no oil pipelines from the east.  One third of our imported oil comes from the Persian Gulf.  But a change is about to happen.  The last tanker of prewar Persian Gulf oil unloaded in Long Beach on the third of May, leaving a 20 percent shortfall going forward, although there is some oil in storage. 

            Even if the Strait opened tomorrow, it would take time to get much of that oil delivered.  Oil infrastructure in the war zone has been damaged.  Sources have reduced production, requiring time to get back to former levels.  It is estimated that it will take as much as a year to return to prewar levels of production and prices, even with a quick resolution and no further damage. 

            There will be problematic disparities within the economy, because not all fossil fuels are equal, with diesel being the most important.  In the U.S., most of our domestic oil is from fracking, which is too light to be refined into diesel without adding heavy crude imported from elsewhere.  This puts us in competition with the rest of the world, which also needs heavy crude.  

            Most developed economies are diesel powered, especially the food systems, which includes basic agricultural production, processing, bulk transportation, and retail distribution.  A diesel shortage anywhere in the food system will eventually express as bare spots on grocery store shelves.  We are not approaching a food crisis.  It has already begun.

            Nitrogen fertilizer is mostly produced from natural gas, which the Hormuz closure has disrupted, so prices are surging.  Airlines everywhere are facing higher jet fuel prices as supplies plummet.  The Spirit Airlines bankruptcy is just the first.  Liquefied natural gas is essential for manufacturing, chemical production, and heating systems.  Naphtha supplies the petrochemical raw material for plastics, solvents, and industrial chemicals.  Persian Gulf exports, one fifth of the global total, have ceased.  All supply chains are being affected, as the oil crisis becomes an "everything crisis".  

            Asia and the Pacific region were hit first, being closer, and more dependent of Persian Gulf exports.  Europe will exhaust their stored supplies this month.  America will be hit by July, in part because the U.S. has expanded exports to the rest of the world, acting as if everything is under control, even though we can't even supply our own needs.

            There are no simple, or quick, solutions.  The president, too distracted by his ballroom, won't save us even though he created this entire problem when he unilaterally welched on the international Iranian nuclear deal eight years ago.  Republicans won't save us, because they are subservient to the president.  However, they may be overwhelmed by voter outrage.  

            This is not an extinction event, but it will be a long-lasting emergency.  We have to reduce fossil fuel consumption immediately, in order control prices and preserve societal essentials.  Life as we have known it will change.  This is a community-level challenge, not an individual one.  The people who survive systemic disruption are the ones who organize, share, and look out for each other. 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking For A Silver Lining

                                                                                          written 10 May, 2026

                                                                                      published 17 May, 2026

 

            It is easy to see the problems.  

            The stock market is booming and the president is laser focused on his ballroom, yet many people are hurting.  The National Science Foundation board was fired.  Now political appointees make scientific decisions.  Since we withdrew from the World Health Organization, the Center for Disease Control is no longer the global health standard it was.  The Supreme Court has destroyed the Voting Rights Act.  Republican autocracy is on the rise. 

            There is no money for healthcare, while our military spends as much as the next 8 countries combined.  Despite outspending Iran 90:1, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for the 11th week, threatening the global economy.  In Ukiah, Chevron sells regular for $6.05/gal., and diesel for $7.29/gal., driving up prices for everything else as well.   

            But it is said that even the devil does God's work.  Is there a silver lining in all this?

            It helps to zoom out and look from a global perspective.  In my opinion, our president's denial of the climate crisis is suicidal insanity.  While he is destroying renewable energy systems in the U.S., his war of choice is pushing the rest of the world to accelerate away from fossil fuels, driven by economics and the instability of the fossil fuel market.

            China, the world's leader in renewable hardware production, has experienced a sharp increase in global solar sales since the war began, now shipping 2 gigawatts per day.  While solar is more intermittent than nuclear, that is the energy equivalent to installing a large nuclear reactor every 3 days!  Compare that to the U.S., which just broke ground on one modest modular reactor last month.  

            The lemming like rush to develop AI is being threatened by the current stagnation in the Strait.  This AI frenzy is a race to be first, but the blockade has eliminated materials critical for the production of advanced computer chips, which can take a year to fabricate.  As the pace of hardware stalls, and rising fuel prices increase costs, AI investment, which was precarious to begin with, is becoming more problematic.  There is already strain because AI still produces little actual return for the money it consumes.  Furthermore, local pushback has forced the cancellation of dozens of data centers.  When the financial bubble pops, not only will the entire global economy sink, but the pace of AI development will crash.  However, this could save our society from the chaos of massive unemployment expected from unrestrained AI deployment.

            Another financial outcome already in play is the change in how U.S. dollars are used in the world today.  For almost a half century, most of the oil sold was denominated in dollars, which was a financial advantage for the U.S.  This has changed because much of the Middle East sees China as the wave of the future.  In addition, U.S. bond sales have been heavily supported by foreign investors, subsidizing our ever-growing national debt.  The president's handling of the war makes these investments seem riskier, increasing our costs of borrowing.  The result of both of these changes makes the domination of federal policy by financial institutions increasingly shaky.

            The stalemate in the Strait has demonstrated the U.S. is no longer a trustworthy ally.  While this marks a decline in America's superpower status, it is building more relationships between nations outside U.S. domination.  Much like England after World War 2, America is being challenged to choose to recommit to being a functioning democracy, rather than trying to dominate world affairs.  It is not yet clear that we will make that choice, but we no longer control the process.

            The president reports feeling nervous around people smarter than himself, which explains his cabinet choices.  Their monetary worth is 100 times greater than Biden's cabinet, but chosen for loyalty, not competence.  This administration is riddled with corruption and abuse by the extremely wealthy.  We have a trillionaire, while millions struggle for food, shelter, and healthcare.  Even the president's most diehard supporters are experiencing this inequity.  Perhaps people will begin to see extreme wealth as a mental disorder of hoarding, not a mark of success.

            The coming changes will be hard for us Americans, but if we survive, the world may become a better place.  I believe most people are good, honoring fair play and the core of the Golden Rule.  We are being called to live, and vote, our ideals, becoming the best we can be.

One Man's Ego

                                                                                            written 3 May, 2026

                                                                                      published 10 May, 2026

           

            In August, 1945, the quantum physics theory that all matter is a form of energy was validated when the U.S. destroyed two Japanese cities.  Nuclear bombs, 1,000 times more powerful than previous weapons, began a new chapter in humanity's historic obsession with domination through power.  As no country wanted to be at the mercy of their adversaries, other countries soon joined the club, which today includes: the United States, Russia, England, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.

            The world recognized the need to control this new level of destruction, and the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty helped slow the spread.  189 of the 193 nations have become parties to the treaty.  However, India, Israel, and Pakistan have never agreed, and North Korea withdrew in 2003.

            Atoms For Peace, producing electricity from commercial nuclear reactors, put a benign face of nuclear technology, but made weapons control more difficult.  While nuclear reactors are not nuclear bombs, they have some fundamental infrastructure similarities, and potential bomb material is generated within commercial nuclear "waste".

            Iran's enmity toward the U.S. began in 1953, when we helped overthrow their elected leader over oil issues, and installed the former Shah as their tyrannical dictator to act as our agent in the region.  The Iranian nuclear industry began when the U.S. built them a small research nuclear reactor in 1970.  However, plans to build 20 power reactors were halted by the 1979 Islamic revolution, which solidified American enmity toward Iran.  America applied economic sanctions and "froze" (stole) $12 billions of Iranian state funds then on deposit in western banks, worth $55 billions today.

            With Russian help, Iran then spent decades developing their nuclear infrastructure, asserting a right to have nuclear electrical power.  But concerns grew that they were getting close to building nuclear weapons. 

            Both sides were entrenched in their mutual mistrust and hatred, making effective agreement very difficult.  However, when Obama was president, the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany began negotiations with Iran, offering incentives to constrain their nuclear ambitions.  After 20 months of talks, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in July 2015.

            Iran gave up 98 percent of its enriched uranium.  Their uranium mining, production, enrichment, and research were restricted and monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog.  Inspectors had unfettered access to Iranian nuclear facilities, ensuring they pursued only civilian work.  If Iran was found to be non-compliant, UN sanctions would immediately resume.  In return, Iran was granted economic sanction relief and their frozen funds were to be returned.  

            For several years, the IAEA certified Iran was keeping its commitments.  The threat was contained, a testament to the power of diplomacy. 

            However, in May 2018, seventeen months into his first term, our new president's ego decided the JCPOA was a "terrible deal".  Perhaps he wanted to destroy anything Obama had achieved.  Perhaps he was just wanted attention.  Based on nothing, without consulting the other parties to the treaty, without consulting Congress, he withdrew the U.S. government from the JCPOA and reimposed oil and banking sanctions.   

            Iran, claiming the U.S. government had demonstrated it was untrustworthy, declared it would resume enrichment without any limitations, and barred international inspectors.  By early 2023 it had stockpiled enough enriched material to potentially approach nuclear breakout.  This was the disaster everyone had feared, unilaterally created by our president, on a whim.  

            On 13 June, 2025, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iranian nuclear targets and personnel, which ended 12 days later when the U.S. dropped "bunker busters" on the underground enrichment facilities.  The president announced he "completely and totally obliterated" their nuclear capacity, but the Pentagon assessed it had been set back maybe 2 years.  

            Having welched on a working deal, and then failed to destroy the resulting Iranian nuclear program, the president doubled down, encouraged by hawks in our government.  On 28 February, 2026, the U.S. and Israel began a larger set of attacks on Iran, again without consulting any allies or Congress.  This time Iran responded, attacking regional fossil fuel infrastructures and military installations.  More significantly, they closed the Strait of Hormuz.

             Despite this being totally expected, the president had no effective response.  Ten weeks on, global trade is still disrupted, continuing to get worse the longer the blockage lasts.  Americans are still relatively sheltered, but that won't last much longer.  We are at the mercy of one man's ego, which thrives on chaos and anger.  

 

Meanwhile

                                                                                         written 26 April, 2026

                                                                                        published 3 May, 2026

            

            Into the ninth week of war, the world holds its breath.  The president extended the ceasefire indefinitely, but each side has fired upon opposing ships, so the Strait is still effectively closed.  The Pentagon says it could take six months to clear the mines, and Iran is laying new ones.  Oil futures edge higher, gasoline and diesel prices increase slowly, while stocks are holding steady.     

            The president says he "feels no pressure" and has "all the time in the world."  Claiming once again that progress is being made, he is sending his best team to negotiate a deal, his son-in-law, hedge fund manager Kushner, and real estate developer Witkoff.  Everyone hopes new talks will resolve the issue before actual shortages begin crashing economies across the planet.  

            However, Iran refuses to attend, stating its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it calls "Washington’s excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade.”  

            The talks have been canceled for now, and the Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire seems to be failing.

            Meanwhile, the war is not the only situation getting worse. 

            The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a UK chartered professional body for actuaries, which Wikipedia defines as "professionals with advanced mathematical skills who deal with the measurement and management of risk and uncertainty."  These people look at the real world to price catastrophic risk, providing the foundation for all insurance and businesses.

             "The Oldest Debt", by Mary Geddry, using IFoA data, states that while the war distracts attention, "the planet’s climate system, the living, breathing infrastructure upon which every human right, every economy, every civilization, and every future generation depends, is moving toward thresholds that no election can reverse and no military can defend against.  This is not a prediction.  It is already happening."

            "The physics of climate change do not respond to election cycles, diplomatic communiqués, or quarterly earnings reports. They respond to the laws of thermodynamics. And the thermodynamics are not negotiating."

            The planet is measurably warmer, due to the increased insulating effect of adding more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  The additional energy is equivalent to 1,000 nuclear explosions every second for the last 50 years.  Think about that for a minute.

            Most of that added energy has warmed the oceans.  Across the planet, the warmer ocean is killing coral reefs, the foundation of sea life.  New diseases thrive.  One of which killed the Sunflower Sea Stars, allowing the Purple Urchin population explosion, which ate 95 precent of the coastal kelp.  We see this locally.  It is not in the future, but already here.

            The rest of the added energy heats the atmosphere, causing droughts and heatwaves.  Humans can't survive when temperatures are too high.  We produce heat internally and have to shed the excess when needed.  When that isn't possible, we cook ourselves to death.

            In the last few years, parts of the planet have become lethal at times.  In the summer of 2023, Phoenix, Arizona had a full month over 100°F, and 645 people died.  Many had air conditioning, which failed under the heat stress.  In June, 2024, temperatures in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, hit 125°F, and 1,301 people died.  Similar lethal heat waves have occurred in Thailand, Pakistan, and Spain.  This is not the future, but is already happening.   

            The war in Iran is about control of oil.  Geddry writes, "In the first fourteen days of the Iran conflict, the greenhouse gas emissions exceeded what Iceland produces in an entire year.  We are burning fossil fuels to fight over fossil fuels in a region being rendered uninhabitable by the burning of fossil fuels.  If there is a more perfect illustration of self-destruction, it has yet to present itself."

            "There is a particular kind of moral failure that is worse than ignorance: the people and institutions that know exactly what is happening, and have chosen to treat it as a business opportunity."  This includes the industries and banks that profit from the fossil fuels, and the politicians they buy, who deny the climate crisis is even happening.

            But the world has already changed.  The International Energy Agency says war has structurally reduced oil demand and increased interest in renewable energy everywhere.  The shifts in global shipping and economic patterns won't change back.  Republican economic corruption and political incompetence have destroyed America's global reputation, and may cripple the party for years.  We live in interesting times!