written 26 April, 2026
published 3 May, 2026
Into the ninth week of war, the world holds its breath. The president extended the ceasefire indefinitely, but each side has fired upon opposing ships, so the Strait is still effectively closed. The Pentagon says it could take six months to clear the mines, and Iran is laying new ones. Oil futures edge higher, gasoline and diesel prices increase slowly, while stocks are holding steady.
The president says he "feels no pressure" and has "all the time in the world." Claiming once again that progress is being made, he is sending his best team to negotiate a deal, his son-in-law, hedge fund manager Kushner, and real estate developer Witkoff. Everyone hopes new talks will resolve the issue before actual shortages begin crashing economies across the planet.
However, Iran refuses to attend, stating its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it calls "Washington’s excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade.”
The talks have been canceled for now, and the Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire seems to be failing.
Meanwhile, the war is not the only situation getting worse.
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a UK chartered professional body for actuaries, which Wikipedia defines as "professionals with advanced mathematical skills who deal with the measurement and management of risk and uncertainty." These people look at the real world to price catastrophic risk, providing the foundation for all insurance and businesses.
"The Oldest Debt", by Mary Geddry, using IFoA data, states that while the war distracts attention, "the planet’s climate system, the living, breathing infrastructure upon which every human right, every economy, every civilization, and every future generation depends, is moving toward thresholds that no election can reverse and no military can defend against. This is not a prediction. It is already happening."
"The physics of climate change do not respond to election cycles, diplomatic communiqués, or quarterly earnings reports. They respond to the laws of thermodynamics. And the thermodynamics are not negotiating."
The planet is measurably warmer, due to the increased insulating effect of adding more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The additional energy is equivalent to 1,000 nuclear explosions every second for the last 50 years. Think about that for a minute.
Most of that added energy has warmed the oceans. Across the planet, the warmer ocean is killing coral reefs, the foundation of sea life. New diseases thrive. One of which killed the Sunflower Sea Stars, allowing the Purple Urchin population explosion, which ate 95 precent of the coastal kelp. We see this locally. It is not in the future, but already here.
The rest of the added energy heats the atmosphere, causing droughts and heatwaves. Humans can't survive when temperatures are too high. We produce heat internally and have to shed the excess when needed. When that isn't possible, we cook ourselves to death.
In the last few years, parts of the planet have become lethal at times. In the summer of 2023, Phoenix, Arizona had a full month over 100°F, and 645 people died. Many had air conditioning, which failed under the heat stress. In June, 2024, temperatures in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, hit 125°F, and 1,301 people died. Similar lethal heat waves have occurred in Thailand, Pakistan, and Spain. This is not the future, but is already happening.
The war in Iran is about control of oil. Geddry writes, "In the first fourteen days of the Iran conflict, the greenhouse gas emissions exceeded what Iceland produces in an entire year. We are burning fossil fuels to fight over fossil fuels in a region being rendered uninhabitable by the burning of fossil fuels. If there is a more perfect illustration of self-destruction, it has yet to present itself."
"There is a particular kind of moral failure that is worse than ignorance: the people and institutions that know exactly what is happening, and have chosen to treat it as a business opportunity." This includes the industries and banks that profit from the fossil fuels, and the politicians they buy, who deny the climate crisis is even happening.
But the world has already changed. The International Energy Agency says war has structurally reduced oil demand and increased interest in renewable energy everywhere. The shifts in global shipping and economic patterns won't change back. Republican economic corruption and political incompetence have destroyed America's global reputation, and may cripple the party for years. We live in interesting times!
