written 19 April, 2026
published 26 April, 2026
Chaotic current events are unfolding so quickly anything written is out of date even a few days later. It will be more than a week before this article gets into print and the world may have changed significantly in the interval.
Thursday, Israel and Lebanon announced a 10-day truce, which had been demanded by Iran. Friday morning, the president announced Iran agreed to open the Strait to free flow of traffic. Stocks jumped higher, and future oil prices dropped, reacting as if we will now return to levels before he started this war.
Diplomacy requires conversation between equals, but the president can only act as a bully, a superior demanding obedience. So, he reversed himself, announcing the US blockade of Iranian shipping would stay in place until there is a final deal. That evening, Iran declared the blockade violated the ceasefire, and on Saturday, fired shots to effectively keep the Strait closed. The cease fire will expire in a few days although new talks are scheduled. Meanwhile, more US troops are in transit to the region. Now entering the eighth week, this war is a long way from being settled, even though the president has said "it is over" more than 12 times already.
The war is a matter of applying pain. The US has killed the top layers of Iranian leadership and destroyed much of their military infrastructure. Iran has blocked the Strait, threatening the economic stability of the entire planet. Each side is betting the pain applied will force the other to capitulate. The president thought a short sharp blow would be sufficient and hadn't considered any alternative. Since that failed, he is now floundering.
Although some oil is being transported by pipelines, blocking the Strait removed 10 percent from the global market, raising prices and creating shortages. Spot prices for delivering actual oil are $50 percent above future prices. Diesel is particularly sensitive and in more universal demand than gasoline, underpinning long haul trucking, rail and marine transport, construction, agriculture and industrial activities everywhere. Europe may run out of jet fuel in a few more weeks.
Chevron regular in Santa Rosa is currently $6.65/gallon, and diesel is $8.65/gallon. The president minimized this, claiming these prices are "not too high" and they will drop "very quickly" to pre-war levels. In contrast, people who actually know about these things suggest it will be months, even years, before we get back to pre-war prices. Regional oil and gas facilities have suffered over $60B in damages, and even the undamaged oil fields, which have been shut down during the war, will take time before production returns to previous levels.
Whatever the eventual war outcome, several shifts are already occurring at home and abroad. Yet another war for oil in the Middle East has sharpened the world's intention to construct alternate forms of energy. The economic wisdom of that path is being added to the climate imperative.
China seems to be the clear winner so far. Over the last decade, they have prioritized renewable energy manufacturing and made progress reducing their dependance on fossil fuels, so their economy has taken a smaller hit. Their export of affordable EV's has jumped 50 percent in the last month. China has offered to install over 100 microgrid systems in Cuba, helping them respond to price increases and the US blockade there.
In contrast, our climate denying president is committing the US to more natural gas and nuclear power. One is a potent climate killer and the other is the most expensive power on the grid. Neither one can be installed quickly. China has bet on the unfolding future and the US is mired in the vanished past.
Reckless actions and statements by the president have alienated our allies, destroying trust America built over decades. He even picked a fight with the Pope. The dollar is no longer the universal commercial currency, a lost benefit for the US. Former supporters feel betrayed.
Wanting a quick resolution to the war, with little concern for reality, he says whatever he believes, as if that makes it true, while Iran refutes him within a few hours. His limitations as a person, let alone a leader, become more apparent every time he speaks. This truth is reflected in his sinking poll numbers, and the Democratic victories in special elections.
Because this man represents us, we all suffer the consequences of his actions. Let's hope America endures long enough to change that.
