written 5 April, 2026
published 12 April, 2026
On April Fool's Day, the president gave a speech about his war of choice in Iran. It was mercifully short, running only 19 minutes. He repeated many of his previous statements, with little news.
Iran was about to attack us with nuclear tipped missiles. Nobody had the courage to remove Iran before him. Our military has totally demolished Iran's military capacity. We have already won, but need maybe another month to finish the project. He may attack on the ground, or he may just declare victory and leave. We don't need to open the Straits of Hormuz, because we have more oil than anyone else. The Straits will open by themselves, and gasoline prices will quickly return to normal.
He clearly wants this to be over, but wishing doesn't make it so. He has always been delusional. In his first term he promised Covid would quickly go away by itself.
Even though we outspend Iran 1,000 to 1, they recently shot down 2 US jets and still attack shipping in the Straits, allowing only 5 percent of the transits relative to pre-war levels. This poorly planned war has abruptly removed almost one fifth of the fossil fuels from the market, affecting the entire world.
As I write, a gallon of Chevron regular in Ukiah is now $5.69, and diesel is $7.65. Jet fuel has doubled in cost, forcing drastic reductions in flights. United Airlines is expecting these high prices to last through 2027. But these increases are based on expected future costs, not yet reflecting actual lack of crude oil availability.
Since most oil takes as much as a month in transit, real shortages are only now beginning to hit the global economy, and prices could soon jump much higher. Some countries are already cutting back their economies to survive on what fuel is available. The longer this closure lasts, the worse it will all get.
The president was correct when he stated the US produces more oil than any other country, 13.6 million barrels a day. But he lied when he said we are energy independent, because we consume 20 million barrels per day. Much of our current production is fracked oil, which is too light to refine into diesel without adding imported heavy oil. Furthermore, our refineries are tailored to the historic blends in place when they were built, and can't be easily shifted to refine a different mix of fuels. As a result, we are required to import significant amounts of oil, even if little of that oil comes through the Straits of Hormuz.
However, it is foolish to think that domestic oil will only be sold to domestic buyers. Oil companies are capitalists, serving shareholders, not consumers, and will sell to the highest bidders, no matter where they live.
Fossil fuels are not the only essential materials being choked off with the Straits closed. Global supplies of phosphate, helium, and ammonia are down 30 percent, with sulfur down 45 percent and urea down 50 percent. These are critical for production of plastics, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and fertilizer for food. Domestic agriculture is being hit by excessive costs due to tariffs, rising prices on diesel, and now expensive fertilizer, yet the price of their product is fixed. Iran holds an asymmetrical advantage.
There are several energy alternatives, but none can respond rapidly enough to supply the abrupt shortfall. Conventional nuclear takes a decade. Small modular reactors don't actually exist yet. New oil, natural gas, and coal production also take time. Solar is the quickest, but even that is inadequate. Reducing consumption by reducing the size of the economy (recession), seems to be the only option.
With arrogance and contempt for opinions other than his own, the president has painted himself into a corner, and risks crashing the global economy. His options are very limited.
Expanding the war with "boots on the ground" will be expensive, bloody, of unknown duration, massively unpopular, with unexpected consequences. Declaring victory and walking away with the Straits still closed leaves the global economy in shambles and destroys America's reputation. Who will trust such a short-sighted leader? He could surrender and admit his mistake, taking responsibility for what he did, which would be a first for a world superpower. But his fragile ego won't allow him to take this path.
Perhaps enough Republicans will find the courage to remove him as incompetent before he destroys everything. What are the odds?
