Forests Of The Sea

                                                                                            written 18 June 2023

                                                                                        published 25 June 2023

                                                                                                 

            As Fox News informs their viewers that the opaque, orange air poses "no threat to health", and Republican "leadership" sinks deeper into performance drama rather than actual policy making, the real world continues to heat up.  

            Just this week, temperatures across Siberia were over 100° F with intense wildfires, and all of central Asia had triple digit heat.  Extreme heat in Bangladesh harmed workers and depressed tourism.  Antarctic winter sea-ice is at record lows as the Weddell Sea warmed five times faster than the rest of the ocean.

            Texas experienced softball sized hail, tornados, and 110° F with a potentially lethal heat index of 120°F, pushing electrical power to capacity, while high water temperatures and low oxygen are killing fish in the Gulf of Mexico.  In Florida, 17 inches of rain caused flash floods and Louisiana sustained 100 mph winds.  AIG joined State Farm and Allstate in refusing to sell new homeowners' insurance policies in certain areas around the country.  A habitable planet for our children requires we not only decarbonize the economy as soon as possible, but begin removing 1,000 billion tons of CO2 already in the atmosphere.  

            I have been discussing "Climate Restoration", by Fiekowsky and Douglis, which describes 4 systems which can get us back to 300 ppm by 2050.  Timely, effective solutions must sequester carbon for more than a century, already exist as demonstration projects capable of being scaled up to removing at least 25 billion tons annually, and be funded within current economic structures by providing marketable materials.  Last week I described the first system, synthetic limestone, which uses processes inspired by natural geochemistry.  The second system engages living systems, specifically seaweed.

             While 97 percent of oil is burned almost immediately, the rest provides valuable feed stock to manufacture textiles, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, fertilizers, lotions, cosmetics, plastics, and dyes, to name a few.  Seaweed is a viable alternative, without the problems of pollution, atmospheric carbon dioxide, drilling, mining, planting, fertilizers, or even clearing the land.  Seaweed can pull carbon out of the air 10 times faster than trees.  Trees use carbon slowly and release it back when they rot, or burn.  Dead seaweed sequesters carbon for centuries when it falls to the ocean floor.

            Until recently, most global coastlines had extensive kelp forests, the fastest growing plants on Earth.  Anchored on the coastal seabed, thriving on nutrient rich oceanic upwellings, they nourish and shelter a rich biodiversity of species.  Sometimes called the rainforest of the ocean, they support massive schools of fish, crustaceans, mollusks, sea birds, seals, otters, and other mammals: the most productive fisheries on the planet.  However, oceanic warming and acidification have disturbed ecological balances, wind patterns, and upwelling currents, devastating 95 percent of kelp forests.

            In 2008, Dr. Brian von Herzen founded Climate Foundation to investigate and promote Marine Permaculture, sustainable marine cultivation, needing no reseeding, fertilization, or even much tending.  A permaculture kelp forests needs only a structure for stalks to attach to and a pump to bring up deep water to simulate a natural upwelling.  A Marine Permaculture Array is a light lattice of tubing which can drop 15 feet below the surface to avoid hurricanes, confirmed by surviving a category 5 hurricane off the Philippines in 2021.  A pump brings water up from several hundred feet, using energy that is solar, wind, or wave generated.  These arrays can be anchored near land to help revive a trouble kelp forest within easy access of a local community.  They can also be towed to the open ocean, anchored deep enough to avoid ship traffic, where they can scale in size without limit.

            Climate Foundation's first demonstration projects have been about 100 square yards, constructed in the Philippines, successfully generating a healthy marine ecosystem.  The next near-term goals are 1,000 square yards, and then 10,000 square yards, at which point the array becomes economically sustainable.  This size will cost about $4M, and generate about $1M per year from sale of sea food and seaweed resource for the diverse products mentioned above.  Half the kelp would be sunk to the ocean floor as sequestered carbon. 

            The annual global sea food market is $200B, and the annual seaweed market is $15B.  Seaweed based animal food supplements can eliminate the methane in cow burps and reduce the use of antibiotics in chickens.  When Marine Permaculture Arrays are scaled up, gigatons of carbon can be sequestered each year.

 

Rocking The Climate

                                                                                            written 11 June 2023

                                                                                        published 18 June 2023

                                                                                                  

            What a week!  The leading Republican presidential candidate whined about harassment as he was indicted again, this time in Federal court on 37 counts, including conspiracy to obstruct justice.  Fox News stated the climate crisis is a hoax while MAGA faithful want to ban teaching about the climate crisis because "it scares children".

            In the real world, where the rest of us live, 430 fires burning in Canada have created Martian like air quality in the New York city area, cancelling 600 flights because the toxic, smoky air was too opaque for safe landings.  Killing heat is affecting Puerto Rico, torrential flooding savaged Italy, and the drought in Panama has reduced shipping through the Canal.    

            While complete economic decarbonization is essential, "Climate Restoration", by Fiekowsky and Douglis, says the only real possibility for a habitable planet is to also aggressively remove 1,000 billion tons of atmospheric CO2, returning to 300 ppm by 2050.  Timely, effective solutions must sequester carbon for more than a century, already exist as demonstration projects capable of being scaled up to removing at least 25 billion tons annually, and be funded within current economic structures by providing marketable materials.  The book identifies four possible candidates, all using natural geological or biological methods.  The first creates synthetic limestone.  

            Dr. Brent Constantz, has been working for decades to use biological and geological systems to address the climate impact of the concrete industry, the second most widely consumed material, which uses cement to bind crushed rock aggregate.  Manufacture of Portland cement is third largest source of atmospheric CO2, as ground limestone is heated to 2,700°F in a kiln.  In 2007, he started Calera Corporation, which produces pure, powdered calcium carbonate (CaCO3) as a substitute for Portland cement, using a process based on that of clams and corals.  Calera's main site uses carbon dioxide captured for the large power plant at Moss Landing.  

            He then turned his attention to the larger issue of concrete aggregate.  Annual global concrete consumption is about 40 billion cubic yards, using 55 billion tons of rock, usually limestone, costing over $1 trillion, shipped an average of 200 miles from quarry to construction site.  Limestone is mostly calcium carbonate, 44 percent carbon dioxide by weight, which is formed by living systems, drawing carbon dioxide out of the ocean over millions of years.  This is one of the ways nature sequesters carbon dioxide, storing 50,000 times more carbon than we have in the atmosphere today.

            Dr. Constantz developed a process for synthesizing high quality limestone using dilute CO2 from any source, including directly from the air.  In 2012, he founded Blue Planet Systems, locate near Los Gatos, to commercialize and scale this process, to encourage the world to build with carbon-negative concrete.  A cubic yard of concrete contains 3,000 pounds of aggregate.  If Blue Planet Systems limestone is used, 1,320 pounds of carbon is sequestered in each cubic yard.  If the CO2 is captured from the cement kiln, that adds another 600 pounds, or nearly a ton per cubic yard.  Any CO2 source can be used.  

            Blue Planet Systems currently uses CO2 captured from fossil fuel plants.  As we shift to renewables, other industrial sources can be used.  Even direct capture for the air will add only 1 percent to the cost of Blue Planet limestone, and will allow limestone synthesis to be placed near to where concrete is consumed, further reducing emissions that would have been used in transportation, while avoiding the environmental destruction of quarry sites.

            If all the annual aggregate use was all carbon-negative Blue Planet limestone, we could sequester about 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide a year.  The more carbon negative concrete we use, the more we will sequester.  Blue Planet expects to scale up to 5,000 plants by 2030, with the help of major industrial partners.  This will require expanding capacity by 5 billion tons per year, with an annual investment of $250 billion.  This will probably not need governmental subsidies, as the synthetic limestone market appears ready to take off on its own financial and green merits.  But the government can help.  In 2022, the US government required low-carbon concrete in all major federal projects.

            According to Dr. Constantz, "Synthetic limestone takes concrete from an environmentally harmful material, with a large carbon footprint, to where we are sequestering the CO2.  We are doing it profitably, not disposing it as a waste."

 

 

Change Is Already Here

                                                                                              written 4 June 2023

                                                                                        published 11 June 2023

                                                                                                 

            Watching only late breaking news, it is easy to get depressed, and conclude that the sooner humanity exits the planet, the better all life will be.  I understand the perspective, but believe it is based on limited information.

            Yes, the Republicans did threaten to crash the global economy, screaming "fiscal responsibility", in order to protect their tax cuts for billionaires, Trump era legislation that added $7.5 trillion to the deficit.  Yes, Republicans are waging war on women, immigrants, poor people, health care, and the climate, pushing a repressive, hateful agenda backed by self-righteous white "Christian" nationalist, ignoring that Christ preached Love of God, and Love of Others.  

            However, Republicans are losing demographically.  Younger voter increasingly trend toward the Democrats and older Republicans are dying.  In response, Republican "leadership" acts more desperate, passing ideological laws that hurt people, accelerating the change.  It's time for emphasizing the importance of discerning facts from beliefs, truth from fabrication, and meaningful activity from diversions.  Outside the siloed bubble mentality of politics, fundamental changes are happening. 

            To avoid even more destructive climate impact, the emerging consensus is a need to completely decarbonize the global economy within the next 20 years.  Since 2015, solar energy, even without subsidies, is the cheapest power that can be installed.  Canary Media reports the world is projected to invest around $1.7 trillion in clean energy this year, substantially more than the $1 trillion expected to pour into fossil fuel development.  Associated Press says this will add 440 gigawatts of renewable capacity, a third again over last year's increase, taking the global total to 4,500 gigawatts, about the total power output of the US and China combined.  Even Oilprice.com, a fossil fuel mouthpiece, acknowledges that "solar energy is the cheapest to install".

            "Climate Restoration", by Fiekowsky and Douglis, a hopeful and well researched book, states that decarbonization is well under way and appears unstoppable.  Since 2013, wind and solar production has tripled every three years.  ESG funds (Environmental, Social, and Governance) are expected to exceed $50 trillion by 2025, while the global energy transition is projected to cost on the order of $30 trillion.  Solar and wind projects cost about $0.04/KWh (kilowatt hour), compared to natural gas at $0.06/KWh, coal at $0.09/KWh, and nuclear at $0.20/KWh.  In addition, all renewable power is free once the hardware is installed, while everything else is subject to inflation, pollution, depletion, and political upheaval.

            While some complain that solar and wind take up "too much space", London based Carbon Tracker estimated that enough solar arrays to supply the entire planet would take up about 0.3 percent of the land mass.  In the US alone, the fossil fuel industry already occupies four times as much land, leaving a toxic mess, while solar arrays are being combined with agricultural activities.

            It is likely that most vehicles will be electric by 2030, and most auto makers are phasing out internal combustion vehicles within the next decade.  The car transitioned from 1 percent to over 90 percent of the transportation in a little over a decade in the early 1900's.  We are experiencing a similar transformation now.  

            "Climate Restoration" suggests that while the decarbonization project is essential, it is not sufficient.  Atmospheric carbon dioxide was stable at about 280 ppm (parts per million) for 10,000 years, as humanity thrived and developed civilization as we know it.  In the last few hundred years, we have added 50 percent more, and now sits at 425 ppm.  Earth last experienced this level over 4 million years ago, long before humans began using stone tools.  We currently add another 2.5 ppm each year, so even if we reach net zero in 20 years, we will likely be living with 450 ppm.  It isn't clear that civilization can continue to exist at that level.  The solution is not only decarbonizing the economy as fast as possible, but to begin aggressively removing carbon, with a goal of returning to a level of 300 ppm by 2050, a level we know will allow humanity to thrive.  This requires removing 1,000 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

            Any real solutions must be permanent (sequestered for at least a century), scalable (already functional at demonstration levels and able to scale up to removing 25 billion tons per year), and affordable (producing economic products that will help fund the process).  Such systems already exist.  Stay tuned.

 

 

Fundamentally Unbalanced

                                                                                              written 28 May 2023

                                                                                            published 4 June 2023

 

            Life is a dynamic balance between apparently opposing elements.  Some examples are: being/doing, self/society, or yin/yang.  These are relative aspects of an inclusive unity, not is conflict at all.  This unity is acknowledged within the yin/yang symbol as a small expression of each part within the major expression of the other part.  While eastern religions tend to be more tolerant of these relative dualities, western religious doctrines can degenerate into extremist self-righteous dogma that exalts one part and demonizes the other.  This attitude has prevailed for centuries, building a core imbalance into everything. 

            We see this expressed in US society today.  America is a land of individualists, structured by the "Protestant" work ethic, dominated by corporate consumer capitalism.  We are the richest country on the planet, with 4 percent of the global population taking 24 percent of the world's energy and resources, a ratio preserved by our military spending more than the next 10 countries combined.  

            Our culture praises the self-sufficient individual, and the business class denigrates welfare as a "moral hazard", yet rushes to get bailed out by the government whenever their economic model fails.  The recent bank collapses cost the government, with no economic consequences for the bankers who crashed their banks using poor judgement. 

            The work ethic prioritizes "doing" and devalues "being".  Consequently, we are so busy making things happen that we have little time to consider what is worth making in the first place.  The rise of disruptive artificial intelligence, and driverless cars may make big bucks for a few investors, but risk massive unemployment.  Even the designers of AI admit they have no idea if their product could decide to destroy humans as a cost/benefit solution.

            Corporate capitalism used to consider the needs of customers, workers, suppliers, and the public good, but has now devolved down to only maximizing short-term profit for the shareholders.  As a result, income in the "richest" country is so skewed that 3 men own as much as the poorest 170,000,000 Americans, and 2/3 of which are one paycheck away from bankruptcy, living a precarious social reality.

            Focus on narrow short-term return makes it seem profitable to kill people and the planet.  The tobacco industry funded disinformation about the health hazards of their lucrative, addictive product, long after proof of the toxic legacy was validated.  Exxon-Mobile researchers knew 50 years ago their product could kill the economy, but the company chose denial, fired the researchers, and hired the same PR companies used by the tobacco industry to spread disinformation.  Modest efforts to limit social damage caused by economic short-term thinking have led to regulations, which corporations loudly described as "job killers" because they cut into profits.

            This economic model of exclusive gain makes the biggest bucks on essential needs.  For those who can afford it, American health care costs twice the average for developed countries, while leaving over 40 percent with inadequate access.  The US pays 2.5 times more than other nations for prescription drugs.  Most of the developed world has universal health coverage, but the US health care corporations demonize the idea as "socialist".

            But thinking about the good of society is necessary to balance the relationship between self and society.  It is obvious to most people that a healthy environment and society are necessary to be a healthy individual, in the same way, it is necessary to have a healthy body for a quality life.  The self needn't war with society, any more than "I" benefit being at war with "my" body.  We all live is a collective reality, which must be in harmony for any part to be at peace or healthy.  Unfortunately, we are not in harmony, and some of these disruptive patterns go back thousands of years.  Consider how deeply misogyny is ingrained in our culture.  

            The Republican party, traditionally dominated by short term business interests, has now cultivated narrow minded "Christian" nationalists, becoming even more unbalanced.  Their war on women, public health, and the climate all stem from exclusive gain economics combined with religious intolerance.  These raw power policies have no real social consideration.  

            But the collective reality cannot be ignored forever.  It has taken hundreds of years for the climate crisis to get to the point where civilization on the entire planet is now being threatened.  We can restore harmony, but everything must be re-examined, and our time for action is shrinking rapidly.