written 4 June 2023
published 11 June 2023
Watching only late breaking news, it is easy to get depressed, and conclude that the sooner humanity exits the planet, the better all life will be. I understand the perspective, but believe it is based on limited information.
Yes, the Republicans did threaten to crash the global economy, screaming "fiscal responsibility", in order to protect their tax cuts for billionaires, Trump era legislation that added $7.5 trillion to the deficit. Yes, Republicans are waging war on women, immigrants, poor people, health care, and the climate, pushing a repressive, hateful agenda backed by self-righteous white "Christian" nationalist, ignoring that Christ preached Love of God, and Love of Others.
However, Republicans are losing demographically. Younger voter increasingly trend toward the Democrats and older Republicans are dying. In response, Republican "leadership" acts more desperate, passing ideological laws that hurt people, accelerating the change. It's time for emphasizing the importance of discerning facts from beliefs, truth from fabrication, and meaningful activity from diversions. Outside the siloed bubble mentality of politics, fundamental changes are happening.
To avoid even more destructive climate impact, the emerging consensus is a need to completely decarbonize the global economy within the next 20 years. Since 2015, solar energy, even without subsidies, is the cheapest power that can be installed. Canary Media reports the world is projected to invest around $1.7 trillion in clean energy this year, substantially more than the $1 trillion expected to pour into fossil fuel development. Associated Press says this will add 440 gigawatts of renewable capacity, a third again over last year's increase, taking the global total to 4,500 gigawatts, about the total power output of the US and China combined. Even Oilprice.com, a fossil fuel mouthpiece, acknowledges that "solar energy is the cheapest to install".
"Climate Restoration", by Fiekowsky and Douglis, a hopeful and well researched book, states that decarbonization is well under way and appears unstoppable. Since 2013, wind and solar production has tripled every three years. ESG funds (Environmental, Social, and Governance) are expected to exceed $50 trillion by 2025, while the global energy transition is projected to cost on the order of $30 trillion. Solar and wind projects cost about $0.04/KWh (kilowatt hour), compared to natural gas at $0.06/KWh, coal at $0.09/KWh, and nuclear at $0.20/KWh. In addition, all renewable power is free once the hardware is installed, while everything else is subject to inflation, pollution, depletion, and political upheaval.
While some complain that solar and wind take up "too much space", London based Carbon Tracker estimated that enough solar arrays to supply the entire planet would take up about 0.3 percent of the land mass. In the US alone, the fossil fuel industry already occupies four times as much land, leaving a toxic mess, while solar arrays are being combined with agricultural activities.
It is likely that most vehicles will be electric by 2030, and most auto makers are phasing out internal combustion vehicles within the next decade. The car transitioned from 1 percent to over 90 percent of the transportation in a little over a decade in the early 1900's. We are experiencing a similar transformation now.
"Climate Restoration" suggests that while the decarbonization project is essential, it is not sufficient. Atmospheric carbon dioxide was stable at about 280 ppm (parts per million) for 10,000 years, as humanity thrived and developed civilization as we know it. In the last few hundred years, we have added 50 percent more, and now sits at 425 ppm. Earth last experienced this level over 4 million years ago, long before humans began using stone tools. We currently add another 2.5 ppm each year, so even if we reach net zero in 20 years, we will likely be living with 450 ppm. It isn't clear that civilization can continue to exist at that level. The solution is not only decarbonizing the economy as fast as possible, but to begin aggressively removing carbon, with a goal of returning to a level of 300 ppm by 2050, a level we know will allow humanity to thrive. This requires removing 1,000 billion tons of carbon dioxide.
Any real solutions must be permanent (sequestered for at least a century), scalable (already functional at demonstration levels and able to scale up to removing 25 billion tons per year), and affordable (producing economic products that will help fund the process). Such systems already exist. Stay tuned.
