The Change Is Here

                                                                                     written 22 October 2023

                                                                                 published 29 October 2023

   

            Randy Howard, the general manager for Northern California Power Authority, recently gave a presentation to the Ukiah City Council.  Ukiah is a member of the consortium of publicly owned power companies, which buys the power we consume.  We are among the best in the State for our percentage of non-carbon power, but the situation has shifted, as the State has set a goal for complete decarbonization by 2045, in response to the climate crisis.  Renewable power construction will have to increase a factor of five over current levels, for the next 20 years.

             Community Choice Aggregators (CCA) are publicly owned regional power companies, serving 1/3 of the California population.  Sonoma Clean Power, which provides power to most of Mendocino county, is a member.  Last month the CCA Association held their annual retreat, which included conversations with the major players in the California State electrical power system.  One of the significant subjects was the fact that the transmission grid is nearing its maximum capacity, which challenges the State goal of decarbonization.  New grid construction can take over a decade for all the planning and right of way permits, even before the actual construction.  Other structural factors are supply chain limitations due to the rapid increase in system construction, and the slow pace of new connections to the grid.  

            While these are serious issues, change is already happening.  The financial world is beginning to understand that a dead planet is bad for business, electricity is a valuable real product, and more companies, with trillions of dollars, are moving into the renewable power construction world.  More large scale manufacturing of solar, wind, and batteries are coming online each year.  At some point, even constipated organizations like PG&E will either see the need, or be forced, to change their business practices to speed up grid connections.

            The entire nature of the grid will change as well.  The historic model of shipping power only as it is immediately needed, will have to evolve to shipping power when grid capacity is available, to be stored for use as needed.  This more complex operating model will require new power management tools, but will utilize the existing grid infrastructure more efficiently, allowing time for strategic grid upgrades to be built.

             Large scale power storage is already being constructed.  Sacramento Municipal Utility District is building a 2,000MWh battery.  This will help integrate their power system, storing midday solar for evening usage.  This is the largest battery under constructed, but will soon be surpassed as grid scale battery storage matures.

            NCPA is building a green hydrogen electrolyzer plant near Lodi, which will split sewage waste water to create hydrogen, using midday solar energy that is now pushing the limits of grid capacity.  Hydrogen is long-term storage of power, far exceeding the duration of batteries.  It can be stored as compressed gas, cooled liquid, or converted to either ammonia or methanol.  Each storage method has energy costs and benefits.  NCPA will ship compressed gas to the Oakland harbor district for use in their facilities.  

            Hydrogen is already being used in high temperature manufacturing such as steel and cement.  It is also a good candidate for long haul trucking, trains, airplanes, and shipping.  The shipping company Maersk is building four new container ships fueled by methanol.  Of course, only green hydrogen, produced with non-carbon electricity, will be of any use in dealing with the climate crisis.  Most commercial hydrogen is now reformulated from natural gas, and does nothing to help the climate crisis, despite fossil fuel industry green washing.

            Obviously, all this change requires massive investment, perhaps $30T globally, spread over 20 years, but the annual global economy is estimated at $88T.  Consider for a moment what will happen if we do nothing.  June, 2023, atmospheric carbon dioxide level was 424ppm.  No human has ever before lived in this atmospheric condition, and this change happened rapidly.  To think that our technologically dependent economy can survive this is foolish.  To avoid climate driven economic collapse, we must rebuild the entire planetary energy infrastructure, and it has to happen rapidly, because of the decades of delay while the fossil fuel industry racked up trillions in profits.  

            Some people still think the crisis is a hoax.  Every year, the reality changes more minds, or kills them off.  Successfully responding to the climate crisis will be the most important gift we can give the following generations.

 

 

Climate Refugees

                                                                                     written 15 October 2023

                                                                                 published 22 October 2023

  

            In September global temperatures spiked to 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, 0.5°C hotter than the previous monthly record, and 2023 is the hottest year.  Global temperatures began rising in 1900, but sharply increased in 1970, and yet again in 2010.  Left unaddressed, this double exponential acceleration means the climate changes we are already seeing will become more severe.

            During the 2017 Redwood Valley fire, neighbors helped neighbors flee the ember blizzard, some escaping with nothing more than the clothes on their backs, and the larger community rallied with support.

            Before Hurricane Idalia hit Florida last August, 1/3 of the state were told to evacuate and millions heeded the warning.  The migration surge impacted surrounding areas, congesting highways, filling all available lodging, overwhelming and disrupting the regional economy.  For the most part, these climate refugees were welcomed, or at least tolerated, as the need to avoid the disaster was on the news everywhere, and these were all "locals", part of the larger community.

            But imagine if folks fleeing for their lives had encountered armed barriers when they hit the county line.  Imagine that folks in other parts of the country didn't want to have their own lives disrupted.  Imagine if those refugees had not been considered "local", but "other".

            This happened when hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005.  Much of the low-lying city was flooded, forcing unexpected evacuations.  But in some areas, dislocated blacks were turned away by armed whites in neighboring communities, forced to stay on higher parts of the highway system with no food, water, or shelter.

            The refugee problem on our southern border has been an issue for years. There are many reasons people have uprooted their lives, walking thousands of miles, risking hardships and predators along the way, to try to get to the US.  One is the economic devastation already caused by the changing climate, which made their previous homes uninhabitable or economically impossible. 

            More than 2 million people have been apprehended crossing from Mexico in 2023.  Some border states have shipped folks north as a political statement, with over 100,000 reported in New York City alone, overwhelming shelter capacities.  But New York has lost 500,000 residents in the last year.  The real problem is not the influx of people, but the lack of short-term shelter facilities to deal with it.  Our entire country is confronted with an aging population and declining birth rate, yet we disparage the millions of relatively young, hard-working people wanting to come here, because they are designated "other".

            Our refugee issue is a part of a global problem, as millions are on the move, displaced by regional climate collapse, and the wars that explode as a result.  This will only get worse as the climate crisis grows.

            88°F at 100 percent humidity is the maximum a healthy young human can sustain and survive.  As the planet warms, the air holds more moisture, making larger areas too hot and humid for humans and other mammals.  The Middle East, Asia, and Africa are at risk, as well as parts of the US.  Summer in Phoenix has already been declared uninhabitable without air conditioning.  By 2100, at least a billion people will be heat impacted, and another 200 million will be displaced by 6.5 feet of sea level rise.  

            More immediately, the World Health Organization estimates drought will dislocate 700 million by 2030, six years from now.  Drought is already affecting global food production, hindering food transportation, decreasing crop yields and water availability.  When the land can no longer feed people, they move. 

            If we are having problems with a few million people moving, what will happen when a billion people are moving in order to survive?  For most of us, this problem is "over there", but that can change in a moment.

            We can start by not killing each other anymore, valuing every life, if we value any.  Using religious, racial, economic, or national divisions as an excuse for tyranny is ignorant, as the climate crisis shows we are a global family in reality.  Centuries of killing to "avenge" a wrong have failed, breeding only stronger backlash, bringing us to the brink of societal collapse.  We must not only end "hating" and following hateful leaders, but actively begin "loving".  Christ said it and John Lennon reaffirmed it: "love is all we need".  Simple, but difficult, given the centuries of embedded grief.  Are we too stubborn to survive?

 

 

Tale Of Two People

                                                                                       written 8 October 2023

                                                                                 published 15 October 2023

    

            Last week, excessive heat forced cancelation of a marathon in Twin Cities, Minnesota.  Salt water intrusion up the slow drought slowed Mississippi river now threatens the Louisiana citrus industry.  Amazon rainforest and South American monsoons show signs of imminent collapse.  New wildfire on Spain's Tenerife island forced 3,000 to evacuate.  New York City flooded as a month of rain fell in a few hours.  Taiwan recorded a 213mph gust during typhoon Koinu.  Heavy rain caused a glacial lake overflow flood, impacting 22,000 in India.  Annual Antarctic sea ice peak is the lowest on record.

            The experience of being born can be traumatic.  Everything changes in a few moments.  The newborn is assaulted with the programming of their parents and culture, defining "who they are".  The physical experience is so diverse, and attractive, that the soul forgets where they came from, and becomes defined by the exterior world.

            Dr. Gabor Mate, trauma therapist, thinks as many as 90% of us have been traumatized, which locks us into rigid stories we create to help explain our experience.  This rigidity prevents us from experiencing our authentic emotions, removing us from reality.  Although the original traumatizing experience fades, the stories persist, until we consciously deal with them.     

            The news cycle is dominated by Donald Trump.  His personal history is now well documented, including the book by Mary Trump, his niece.  Donald was traumatized by his home life.  His father, emotionally cold, taught life was about killers and losers, that winning was the goal, keeping score with money.  Donald was given massive funds early on, divorcing him from taking responsibility for his actions, accelerating the cultivation of his own identity cult.  His goal has always been to improve his personal brand worth, as defined by external power and wealth, without regard to the impact on anyone else.  However, his empire worth has already been judged overstated, and built on fraud.  Such a traumatic expression is described as a malignant narcissist.

            Trump is a metaphor for the old order of society, which celebrates the "individualist".  Sociopathic and psychopathic individuals, typified by almost complete lack of compassion or empathy, a relatively small part of the population, are disproportionately found in the ranks of business and political leaders.  We exalt the fact that three people own half the wealth of the country.  But this kind of distortion, played out all across the economy and society, is bringing us to the brink of collapse, economically and ecologically.  There are signs of change showing in the cracks.

            Some people believe we are born, live once, and die, residing forever after in heaven, hell, or oblivion, depending: one and done.  Other people believe our being, or soul, transcends time, and lives thousands of life times, learning something from each incarnation, bringing forward some knowledge or unresolved lesson to learn.  People researching past lives find that young children often remember previous life events, before this incarnation eventually overwrites everything.  But perhaps that division between lives is becoming more permeable.  

            Max Alexander was born in Los Angeles in 2016.  At the age of four he told his parents that he had previously been fashion designer Guccio Gucci, and intended to be a dress maker.  He was so passionate that his mother taught him how to use a sewing machine, and sent him to sewing classes when he surpassed her knowledge.  Max has now made hundreds of designs, held his own fashion shows, sold internationally, has a celebrity following, and a studio which helps produce his designs.  His goal is to "make women feel beautiful".  He is currently in third grade.

            Max seems to have accessed aesthetics, designs, and skills way beyond a happy go lucky little boy.  Inspiration is our individual connection to the larger world of previous knowledge.  

            As a creative person, I trust the process of inspiration.  Occasionally, ideas come that I have never experienced before, and this process can be cultivated.  Several times I have easily taken up a new craft, and felt like I have done it before, yet not in this lifetime.  Our culture doesn't encourage considering reincarnation, so we are likely to dismiss these thoughts, rather than consciously working to open that inspirational channel further.

            Consider what the world would be like if we were all able to access multiple life times of knowledge into shaping the world today, and become more like Max and less like Trump.

 

Producing Local Power

                                                                                      written 1 October 2023

                                                                                  published 8 October 2023

 

            Last week, red skies from wildfire smoke returned to Yellowknife, Alberta.  Extended drought has lowered Mississippi river levels, allowing salt water to move inland, causing drinking water crisis in parts of Louisiana.  Hail larger than baseballs fell again in central Texas.  Heavy rain flooded Bangkok, Jacksonville, FL, and parts of New Jersey and New York City.

            The climate crisis is real, and we need to stop adding more carbon to the atmosphere.  This decarbonization goal requires three times as much electricity within 20 years, all non-carbon produced.

            One of the issues with increasing power production is the limited transmission grid capacity, which occasionally has trouble dealing with peak loads at the existing levels.  Expanding the grid capacity is expensive and very time consuming.  However, if we can produce more of our power locally, we will need to import less. 

            In addition, with no major electrical power produced within our large county, and a diffuse population, much of the distribution system is vulnerable to wind damage and fire.  People experience power outages resulting from events distant from them, some lasting for days.  Increasing local power production will improve power resilience.

            Of the various power sources available, solar is the most abundant locally, and becoming cheaper every year as mass production continues to scale up.  The energy is free, it is only the hardware to collect it that costs.  Installing a solar array is like prepaying for decades of electricity at a fixed cost, something no fossil fuel can deliver.  

            There are still issues.  PG&E owns the entire transmission and distribution system, with the exception within the City of Ukiah.  As a typical monopoly corporation, service to the customers is down the list of priorities.  In addition, as more renewable projects are being built and requiring connection to the existing power grid, a backlog has been created.  The bureaucratic structure of the State hinders this as well.  Fortunately, powerful stakeholders are working to overcome these limitations.  

            PG&E has shifted their mission away from producing power to primarily shipping power, and has little interest in making production investments locally.  Sonoma Clean Power services the majority of the county, contracting for renewable power from providers, which is then shipped to customers over the PG&E system.  But SCP doesn't have the staff or budget to build production systems.

            Even though costs have plummeted over time, now only a few dollars per installed watt, an array is a big expense, particularly when we think in terms of what the community needs (megawatts) rather than just a single household (kilowatts).  The good news is that a utility scale array is reliably profitable over time, and companies are now in the business of installing and operating this type of power system.

            In 2022 alone, 2,500MW of utility scale solar was installed in California, bringing the total for the State to 38,000MW.  Of this, at least four sites are over 500MW each.  Another 27,000MW are planned over the next 5 years.  

            Over an annual average, Mendocino county now consumes about 1,500 megawatt hours of electricity every day.  A single 400MW array, located within Mendocino county, would double our power, but a single array would be problematic, requiring connection to the high voltage transmission grid, and wouldn't really relieve local power resilience concerns.  A more versatile alternative would be a hundred 4MW arrays, distributed around the county.  Over a decade, this works out to about one a month.

            Renewable Properties (www.renewprop.com) is a company that builds and operates distributed generation solar systems.  They have successfully built systems within PG&E territory and are now developing two local arrays, near Ukiah and Laytonville.  Sonoma Clean Power is negotiating to buy the power when production starts in late 2025.  Renewable Properties (RP) has at least one more Mendocino county site in process, and is interested in finding more.

            RP is willing to buy or lease land.  They need 5 acres per megawatt of array, and are looking for parcels at least 20 acres in size, on up.  Their projects connect into the lower voltage distribution system that you see running along roads, and they need sites within 500' of that system.  If interested, contact Dakin Spain (dakin@renewprop.com), their Senior Project Developer.

            We who live in Mendocino county have on the ground knowledge.  Start thinking about where an array could be installed.  Talk to friends.  Which land owners would be willing to help power our communities?  

Regional Planning

                                                                                 written 24 September 2023

                                                                                   published 1 October 2023

  

            Last week, the Mississippi river was so low from dry weather, barge traffic was reduced, raising food prices.  Wildfires burn in Louisiana, and baseball sized hail hit parts of Texas.  Tropical storm Ophelia cut power and flooded parts of the east coast from the Carolinas to New York.

            Ukiah hosted a regional meeting of groups from Mendocino, Lake, Humboldt, and Del Norte counties, to discuss coordinated regional economic development.  Our region has chronic needs.  Once rich with natural resources, timber, fishing, and agriculture have all peaked and declined.  Our population is aging, rising home prices fuel homelessness, every community has empty stores, and much of the resulting economy is based on imported tourism, and exported wine.  On top of all that, we experience the increasing burden of the climate crisis.

            The climate has fundamental economic impact, which will only increase every year until it is adequately dealt with.  When planning a building, real-world factors of where the building will be located must be considered: such as likelihood of flooding, wind hazards, seismic concerns, fire threats, and tsunamis.  Economic development faces the same consideration for stable, long term viability. 

            For example, even though this summer has been relatively free of local mega fires or orange air quality, everyone is feeling the pinch of the fire insurance issue.  While high home prices and replacement costs are a factor, the accelerator is the year by year increase of insured buildings burning, sharply increasing claims.  California has tried to keep prices affordable by insisting companies can only look at historic loss rates when calculating premiums, a reasonable limitation in times of stable climate.  But we are in a time of intense change, where tomorrow is no longer reliably like yesterday.  Further, insurance companies insure themselves, and long-term trends have begun to raise their cost of reinsurance.  Caught in the middle, the companies are choosing to leave the State, which threatens the real estate market, and the financial system that funds it.  New legislative changes help the companies, but not the pressure on the consumers.

            It is also important to consider the structural limitations of the economic system itself.  In reality, money is worthless.  It is only what money can purchase that has value.  After hurricane Katrina destroyed the New Orleans area, ice and gasoline were of value.  If there was none, it didn't matter how much money one had.

            Our economic system expects ever part to produce a profit, or it is underfunded, depending on low-paid workers or unpaid volunteers, despite how essential the service, such as child care or elder care, may be to members of our community.  

            Furthermore, "profit" is totally dependent on the time frame considered.  Short term gains usually incur long term costs, wiping out the entire rational of the transaction.  For example, our for-profit health care, the world's most expensive, won't fund preventative care for everyone, despite being cheaper in the long run, so expensive emergency room services are used as the last resort.  This lack of far reaching, inclusive perspective, is how we have gotten to our current state of affairs, which is massively profitable to a few, but risks collapse of our entire economic system.

            I suggest that rather than focus on "economic" development, we instead prioritize "community" development, a more inclusive concept.  Consider what kind of a community would we like to leave for our kids.  What services are missing for a vital, livable community?  How can we encourage production of these essentials within our region?  How can we increase local food resilience?  

            We could start with the basic goal of leaving a planet still habitable to humans.  Working to make those necessary changes will require a long-term project of rebuilding much our current infrastructure, generating worthwhile local jobs, as we change energy forms, and increase the efficiency of our buildings.  This will build greater power resilience.

            To build the skilled work force needed, job training programs will open meaningful work opportunities, allowing people to stay in the community.  As our region takes the lead on this kind of community development, we will inspire other areas, and draw a different kind of tourism here, to experience how it can be done.

            Funding such development demands a shift from exclusive fiscal gain to understanding our unity on this planet.  The climate crisis is global, demanding a global response.  This shift is the most essential work we will ever do.