written 22 October 2023
published 29 October 2023
Randy Howard, the general manager for Northern California Power Authority, recently gave a presentation to the Ukiah City Council. Ukiah is a member of the consortium of publicly owned power companies, which buys the power we consume. We are among the best in the State for our percentage of non-carbon power, but the situation has shifted, as the State has set a goal for complete decarbonization by 2045, in response to the climate crisis. Renewable power construction will have to increase a factor of five over current levels, for the next 20 years.
Community Choice Aggregators (CCA) are publicly owned regional power companies, serving 1/3 of the California population. Sonoma Clean Power, which provides power to most of Mendocino county, is a member. Last month the CCA Association held their annual retreat, which included conversations with the major players in the California State electrical power system. One of the significant subjects was the fact that the transmission grid is nearing its maximum capacity, which challenges the State goal of decarbonization. New grid construction can take over a decade for all the planning and right of way permits, even before the actual construction. Other structural factors are supply chain limitations due to the rapid increase in system construction, and the slow pace of new connections to the grid.
While these are serious issues, change is already happening. The financial world is beginning to understand that a dead planet is bad for business, electricity is a valuable real product, and more companies, with trillions of dollars, are moving into the renewable power construction world. More large scale manufacturing of solar, wind, and batteries are coming online each year. At some point, even constipated organizations like PG&E will either see the need, or be forced, to change their business practices to speed up grid connections.
The entire nature of the grid will change as well. The historic model of shipping power only as it is immediately needed, will have to evolve to shipping power when grid capacity is available, to be stored for use as needed. This more complex operating model will require new power management tools, but will utilize the existing grid infrastructure more efficiently, allowing time for strategic grid upgrades to be built.
Large scale power storage is already being constructed. Sacramento Municipal Utility District is building a 2,000MWh battery. This will help integrate their power system, storing midday solar for evening usage. This is the largest battery under constructed, but will soon be surpassed as grid scale battery storage matures.
NCPA is building a green hydrogen electrolyzer plant near Lodi, which will split sewage waste water to create hydrogen, using midday solar energy that is now pushing the limits of grid capacity. Hydrogen is long-term storage of power, far exceeding the duration of batteries. It can be stored as compressed gas, cooled liquid, or converted to either ammonia or methanol. Each storage method has energy costs and benefits. NCPA will ship compressed gas to the Oakland harbor district for use in their facilities.
Hydrogen is already being used in high temperature manufacturing such as steel and cement. It is also a good candidate for long haul trucking, trains, airplanes, and shipping. The shipping company Maersk is building four new container ships fueled by methanol. Of course, only green hydrogen, produced with non-carbon electricity, will be of any use in dealing with the climate crisis. Most commercial hydrogen is now reformulated from natural gas, and does nothing to help the climate crisis, despite fossil fuel industry green washing.
Obviously, all this change requires massive investment, perhaps $30T globally, spread over 20 years, but the annual global economy is estimated at $88T. Consider for a moment what will happen if we do nothing. June, 2023, atmospheric carbon dioxide level was 424ppm. No human has ever before lived in this atmospheric condition, and this change happened rapidly. To think that our technologically dependent economy can survive this is foolish. To avoid climate driven economic collapse, we must rebuild the entire planetary energy infrastructure, and it has to happen rapidly, because of the decades of delay while the fossil fuel industry racked up trillions in profits.
Some people still think the crisis is a hoax. Every year, the reality changes more minds, or kills them off. Successfully responding to the climate crisis will be the most important gift we can give the following generations.
