written 18 August, 2024
published 25 August, 2024
Three powerful forces currently stress civilization: climate change, peak oil, and shifting economics.
In 1995, atmospheric CO2 content was 358 ppm, 78 ppm above the pre-industrial baseline. The scientific community was still debating if the climate crisis was serious, but quickly reached consensus: it is real and will demand attention. Today atmospheric CO2 is 424 ppm, and the impact is already here. Ask anyone who has had their home burned up, flooded out, or blown away.
The fossil fuel industry knew about this 50 years ago, but chose to fund denial, because of the money involved: $7 trillion each year, about $13 million every second. The GOP works for billionaires, so they support this denial, with the Project 2025 goal of eliminating any effort to respond to climate reality. But those of us who live in the real world, and want a habitable planet for our descendants, must deal with it.
The second force arises from the fact that fossil fuels are finite. 1972 was the peak US domestic production of conventional oil (everything except deep water, fracking, and tar sands). At that point, we lost control of the price of oil, OPEC took over, prices tripled within a decade, causing the worst inflation in US history, beginning decades of hollowing out the American middle class. In 1973, minimum wage of $1.25/hour could buy over 6 gallons of gas. Today, minimum wage of $15/hour can buy less than 3 gallons of gas.
2005 was peak global production of conventional oil, which amplified the economic crash in 2008. But in the US, fracking for oil boomed, and the US again became a global leader in exporting oil. Conventional fields, like the north slope of Alaska produced for almost 50 years before reducing to a trickle today. A much more expensive fracked well depletes by 85 percent in just two years, and a new well has to be developed. Therefore, while oil is produced, it is more expensive. Industry now reports US fracking production is coming to an end, as the few profitable fields are about exhausted. 2018 was the peak in global oil production from any source. However, the global depression from the COVID pandemic has so far masked the full economic impact.
There is a third force driving change. While fossil fuels get more expensive as the easily developed reserves are depleted, renewable power get cheaper every year, as the scale of production increases. Solar dropped from $100/watt in the 70's to $0.11/watt from China today. Solar and wind are the cheapest power to produce, and battery costs are dropping while duration and capacity increase. In addition, the renewable hardware is a fixed cost, with free energy for the life of the equipment. Electric vehicles are three times more energy efficient, need less maintenance, and the power can be produced anywhere, down to the level of individual homes. No fossil fuel can compete with these economic realities.
At some point soon, this increasing cost disparity will make fossil fueled transportation economically obsolete. China is already selling medium range electric cars for $11,500. Low cost electric scooters are expanding globally. The City of South Pasadena shifted their entire fleet of police cruisers to Tesla. Even though the initial vehicle cost was higher, the savings in fuel and maintenance costs, plus the higher resale value of Teslas as used cars, saved the city money overall.
In "Clean Disruption", Tony Seba talks about how this economic shift will be a "disruptive technology", similar to the impact of the shift from horses to automobiles, film to digital cameras, or land lines to smartphones. The changes will be sudden, massive, and socially transformative. As the saying goes, the stone age didn't end because we ran out of rocks, it was supplanted by a more efficient and versatile technology. Seba sees this shift happening by the end of this decade.
Our existing electrical systems have not begun to respond to these three forces and the coming shift. In Ukiah, the utility has yet to add any new local renewable production, nor begun to address the challenge of grid capacity limitations. Public EV charger installations are happening at 1/10 the needed rate. The situation in the county is the same. Whether due to climate denial, lack of awareness, or budget limitations, the result will be the same: complete unpreparedness in the face of the coming changes. We are challenged to do better.
