written 26 Sep 2021
published 3 Oct 2021
A recent report from the World Bank projected that before 2050, planetary climate change will produce "more than 200 million internally displaced people". Placed comfortably three decades in the future, this may be a rosy underestimate. As the climate emergency grows, more areas of the planet are already being disrupted. Just this summer over 100 million people were affected by flooding in central China. When regions become uninhabitable, people who have lost everything become refugees, and climate refugees are changing the world today.
A drought in the middle east, the worst in 900 years according to NASA researchers, began in 1998. It became extreme about a decade later, and is linked to the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Over 6 million Syrians left, about a quarter of the country, creating social disruption throughout the region and into Europe.
In October, 1998, hurricane Mitch stalled over the eastern mountains of Honduras and Nicaragua, and dropped 3-6 FEET of rain in less than 3 days. This area was already poor, with aging and inadequate infrastructure, and most people lived on subsistence farming. The deluge destroyed the society, hitting Honduras hard, setting the country back a half century, with widespread crop damage, destruction of two thirds of the infrastructure, while making a third of the population homeless. Continued immigration from this part of Central America has stoked political division in the US.
Drought in Africa is causing migration and fueling conflict. In Southern Africa, the drought that began in 2018 is the worst in centuries. Grain production is down by half and herds are being culled. Further north in eastern Africa, drought has exacerbated armed conflict, and famine is spreading. In western Africa, the desert is expanding from the north, drought reduced water resources are stressing traditional food production, and sea level rise is threatening the heavily populated coast. Overall, more than 10 million African are displaced annually, impacting neighboring countries, even driving migration across the Mediterranean into southern Europe.
These people are climate refugees, having been forced out of their homes, but there are also climate migrants, who still have resources and are moving by choice.
Climate change has amplified California's normal water problems. 1200 years of tree ring data shows soil moisture peaked in 2000, dropping to levels today that rivals the worst drought recorded. Reservoirs and snow packs are at historic lows, while heat keeps building. Some communities in the Central Valley are already bone dry, and the Mendocino Coast is dependent on trucked in water. The impact on fisheries and farmers will be harsh, but the economy is being affected by more than increasing agricultural losses. As the fire season expands the fire insurance industry is growing nervous, as is the mortgage industry, with climate disaster foreclosures expanding.
California fires during the last five seasons account for more than half the top 20 for area burned, loss of life, and loss of structures. Some who were burned out moved to the coast or out of state. Witnessing the trauma of fire survivors has prompted others to move before they lose everything. Anxiety about fires during the longer fire season, and the real health consequences of breathing smoke-filled air, have many more thinking about leaving. These are climate migrants.
Scientists have been warning about climate change for decades, but they have been ignored because the powers currently profiting off the system have yet to recognize that they will be affected as well. However, each year more people are concerned about the climate, especially the young, who will bear the brunt of it. But the inertia of the system is large, and the magnitude of any effective solution will have to be massive and swift, given how long we have denied reality.
This will take much more than a technological "fix", although that is necessary. If humanity is to have a future, we must change every aspect of our society and economy: how we power our infrastructure, how we treat the finite resources of the Earth and all the other living creatures, how we treat each other, and how we define "success" and "happiness". Despite the mess we have made, and the current toxic polarization of our society, I am still optimistic about humans. We have no idea what we can be when we finally grow up.
