The New Year

                                                                                   written 24 December 2023

                                                                               published 31 December 2023

  

            The Winter Solstice and Christmas mark the return of light and hope, and the New Year is a time for aspirations and resolutions.  I want a habitable planet for our descendants, and I resolve to work to make that happen.

             A month ago, Randy Howard, the general manager of NCPA, Ukiah's power provider, informed the City council that the State of California has a goal of decarbonizing the economy by 2045.  This ambitious push to stop adding more atmospheric carbon recognizes a hard reality many still deny: our current energy system is killing the planet. 

            Locally, the 2017 wildfires changed minds, giving us tangible evidence that everything we now take for granted, can disappear overnight.  The climate is a non-linear system, while humanity lives in a linear mindset.  In the beginning, a linear change and an exponential change look the same.  But eventually, exponential systems begin rapid acceleration.  For example, this summer Greece experienced 21 inches of rain in one day.  Acapulco expected a tropical storm, but the next day a category 5 hurricane damaged or destroyed every building in the city.  

            Some feel it is already too late, with human extinction in a few decades, while other feel the climate issue is just a partisan hoax.  Some books suggest massive expansion of nuclear power and trust the corporate dominated "free market" will save us, while others imagine a planet with only a billion humans.

            I still live between the extremes, envisioning a maturing species, shifting from furiously burning through our dwindling inherited energy savings, to living sustainably within our energy income.  How fortunate that when we need to change our entire energy structure, we can now capture free energy and store it, on a scale and efficiency never experienced before.  The problem is not HOW to do it, but WILL we do it.  I admire California for stepping up to the plate.

            In order to replace all the fossil fuels, decarbonization will require three times as much electricity as is now produced, and all this will have to be produced carbon free.  There are three parts to this plan: producing more renewable power, shipping it to where it is needed, and expanding the local distribution system to handle the increased power.  

            This is a big deal, requiring rapidly changing an energy system that has evolved slowly.  Because of the decades of delay, funded by the fossil fuel industry and their short-sighted greed, the climate situation is now changing rapidly, so the time pressure is intense.

            The growth of renewable production is increasing every year, and big money is already investing to make this happen.  NCPA is responsible for shipping the power from where it is produced to where it is needed.  Ukiah has the responsibility of planning and building out our distribution of the increased power within the city limits.  

            But the existing transmission grid infrastructure, as currently managed, is barely able to handle peak loads at our current power levels, let alone beginning to ship significantly more power.  NCPA, nor any other power provider, has yet to manifest any viable solution for this issue.  However, they are beginning.  

            NCPA has told Ukiah it must begin planning to produce 15 percent more of our power locally, avoiding adding to grid congestion.  Ukiah consumes an average of 300MWh per day, so we will need to produce another 45MWh a day, which will require about 11MW of solar array.  NCPA and the City utility have begun discussing possible locations, including at the airport, which could support about half the array needed.

            All Ukiah City facilities, including the sewer and water systems, consume a average of 17MWh per day.  This push from NCPA, combined with significant grant funds coming from the Federal IRA, means Ukiah has the opportunity to do strategic design, moving the city toward increased power resilience.

            For example, the sewer and water systems now have fossil fueled backup power systems, sunk investment, unused most of the time.  By installing sufficient solar and storage at each of these locations, not only would Ukiah help satisfy the need for increased local power production, but these essential services would become power resilient.  This same kind of planning could be applied to other essential City services, such as emergency communications.

            Now is the time to envision a resilient Ukiah, ready to survive a turbulent 21st century.  Let's begin building for a habitable planet for the future.

 

Thinking Outside The Box

                                                                                   written 17 December 2023

                                                                               published 24 December 2023

            According to the second law of thermodynamics, entropy, a measure of disorder, always increases, the so-called arrow of time.  We see things fall apart.  Everything ages.  But the full statement has a precondition, usually unmentioned, that "in a closed system" entropy increases.  When my car breaks, I can fix it.  When the battery in my drill motor runs out, I can recharge it.  The question becomes, is my current situation within an open or closed system?

            Albert Einstein said "problems cannot be solved with the same mindset that created them."  Our mindset includes unexamined assumptions, usually culturally implanted before we are even conscious, that define our perspective.

            One of the limitations in western science is the assumption we live in a closed system, where matter is the ground of reality, and consciousness arises only within complex matter, specifically the human brain.  The arrogance that only humans have consciousness means the rest of the world is just dumb matter.  When we believe we are separate from all other life forms, we can abuse them with impunity, which bleeds over into abusing weaker members of our own species, when it benefits the more powerful.  Consequently, our civilization tolerates vast inequities and is indifference to suffering.  But such flawed thinking is eventually challenged by fundamental failures, such as the climate crisis and the tragedy of endless wars.  

            For centuries, matter has been defined by the four dimensions of space/time, but it is only an assumption that consciousness is also so limited.  Quantum mechanics now demonstrates the non-locality of matter, reacting to patterns beyond the space/time continuum, so consciousness may be non-local also.  What if consciousness is the ground of reality, as eastern science and indigenous cultures have known for centuries?  What if all life, including human, is an interconnected material manifestation of higher dimensional consciousness?  Let's consider what evidence might support this perspective. 

            DNA is responsible for much of how our bodies manifest.  Humans share 99.9 percent of their DNA with other humans.  However, we also share 90 percent with cats, 84 percent with dogs, 70 percent with slugs, and even 50 percent with trees.

            Plants have been living on Earth hundreds of millions of years longer than humans, mostly solar powered, yet, after only a few centuries, our culture is already being threatened by our own toxic wastes.  We could learn from our plant relatives.

            Australian aboriginal "dreamtime" allows effective communication across space and time.  The perspective of reincarnation suggests some aspect of consciousness persists past material mortality, as does ancestor worship.  All psychic phenomenon supports the awareness of information unbounded by the limits of space and time.  Biologist Rupert Sheldrake postulates morphogenic fields, existing beyond space/time, affect the cellular manifestation of growing organisms, and information systems.  His book "Dogs That Know When Their Owners Are Coming Home" suggests that animals have transtemporal awareness.  Battlefield reports indicate that even a few seconds of awareness of future events can save a life.  The founders of Findhorn established meditation communication with the "over soul of the vegetables", which helped them grow fantastic produce and gain worldwide recognition.  

            Even within orthodox western science, we find that consciousness, as defined by awareness and volition, exists in many other species.  Trees communicate and cooperate for mutual survival, even outside their individual species.  Over 50 years ago, The Secret Lives Of Plants described evidence of plant sentience.  Elephants like to listen to, and play, music.  

            The Institute Of Noetic Sciences first cataloged documented cases of spontaneous remission, where people with lethal diseases survived without medical intervention.  The resulting medical field of psychoneuroimmunology is now well established, exploring how what we think affects our health.  The placebo affect is real, showing that our belief can heal.  The reverse is also true, as our fears can kill us.  

            If humanity was to begin relating to the entire world as conscious, living organisms, kin to our human species, think what a difference that could make.  We know the way to improve our food production system is to build healthy soil, where 200 trillion living organisms inhabit each cubic foot.  We could restore a healthy climate, removing the thousand billion tons of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, by aggressively cultivating phytoplankton blooms in the ocean, while feeding the other ocean species.   Working with life, rather than dominating it, is the answer. 

            This will require changing our way of thinking, and learning humility.

 

A New Story

                                                                                   written 10 December 2023

                                                                               published 17 December 2023

  

             We have a tendency to look to the past for guidance, which can work when things are changing slowly.  But we now experience rapid, and fundamental changes, which means tomorrow is unlikely to be like yesterday.  Our world is shaped by story, and our current story is inadequate, no longer able to serve.  Winter Solstice is coming, with Christmas a few days later.  These are times of renewal and hope, time to look forward, setting our intentions.  Time to consider new stories.

            I have often mentioned that the world is whole, but we live in a cultural/economic illusion of absolute separation.  Endless consumption and the corporate competitive economic model dominate our current story, shaping everything to fit that limited paradigm.  The result is overpopulation, social inequity, wide spread pollution, resource depletion, and the climate crisis.  This has all the wisdom and insight of biological yeast, which grows until it exhausts all resources and then dies in its own toxic wastes.

            But what would a new story look like?  Life offers an example in our own body.

            A healthy human body is a collective of trillions of unique, wildly differentiated cells, all working in harmony, which endures much longer than the life of any individual cell.  There are fundamental structures of this successful model that could be applied to human civilization.

            Every cell has core needs for survival: shelter, energy, nourishment, waste disposal, communications, and purpose.  If any part of the body lacks any of these essentials for very long, that part begins to die, and if left unaddressed, eventually the entire body dies.  Consequently, the structure of the body is organized to satisfy those fundamental needs.  This is biological socialism: to each according to its needs, from each according to its abilities.  

            Blood circulation includes every cell, with few exceptions, delivering energy and nutrients, while removing waste, all for free.  One system covers the entire body, a blood monopoly.  But the "profit" from this system takes the form of continued existence, not some fictional fiscal concept.  Some cells get more blood and energy, if their purpose requires it, but not because of any inherited entitlement, or class distinction.  

            However, the system is not minimalist, having multiple redundancies for operational resilience and damage control.  In addition, the lymph system is a parallel waste disposal system, servicing the entire body, adding further redundancy to this important function.  

            Most cells are connected into the communications of the nervous system.  This allows the entire body to be aware of information from each part, and coordinates wholistic responses.  This is also a monopoly, offered free to all cells, unhindered by competitive rivalry which causes unnecessary delays, confusion of information, communication deserts, or deficient service capacity.

            Every cell has a purpose within the larger body.  Some cells perform their function every minute, while others have a purpose that is only needed on occasion, but are kept healthy, even when not "working".

            The overall organization is designed to be sustainable.  While the first years of life involve relatively rapid accumulation and growth from new born baby to adult, growth then stops.  Once mature, the system focuses on maintenance and repairs for the rest of life.  Unlimited growth within such a system is the definition of cancer, and generally leads to death of the body.  Even the slower accumulation, described as obesity, adds stress and strain to the body, producing a generally shorter life span.

            If our society operated from the same inclusive holism the drives our body's organization, all human lives would be nourished, without regard for "earning" the right to live.  The wealth of the society would prioritize distribution to insure every person has adequate housing, food, energy, communication, education, and health care, recognizing that when some part suffers, the whole system is threatened.

            This same consideration would be extended to the larger biological community, recognizing the fundamental connection of all life forms.  When the planet thrives, everything living on the planet thrives as well.  Instead, we are now experiencing that as more and more of the life of the planet is sacrificed for the short-term financial gain of a small portion of humanity, the entire planet suffers, threatening the viability of even the supposed "ruling class".

            Such a reorganization might seem impossible, but life has figured out how to make it work, our bodies are living proof.  The real question is: are humans wise enough to survive?

 

Money Addiction

                                                                                   written 3 December 2023

                                                                               ublished 10 December 2023

     

            While some claim that Christianity is the American religion, our core devotion is really money, and "the love of money is the root of all evil".  Of course, the people feeling the evil impact are rarely those making the money.  Consequently, we see people with little compassion or empathy gravitating toward positions of economic and political power.

            Money is a symbolic concept.  While some forms of physical money have limited material value outside their monetary value, these days most money has little physical form at all, existing only as electronic data.  Yet, obsession with this money concept is everywhere, as is the destructive impact.  

            After World War 2, "citizens" became "consumer", to avoid a post war recession, and the advertising economy boomed.  But advertising requires making people dissatisfied with their current situation, and then selling them something that will make it all "better", creating a constant need for new things.  However, real happiness comes from peace of mind, so joy from having "things" is transient, at best.  In 2023, advertising revenue exceeded $300B in the US.  Despite the promise of happiness, depression in the US costs over $300B each year, and suicide rates keep climbing.

            The entire social media world is dominated by algorithms designed to hold a viewer's attention, while presenting them with strategically selected ads, just to increase revenue.  The sites earned over $200B in 2023, but adversely affect viewers brains, with increasing disinformation, social bullying and suicide rates.

            Honesty is a casualty of the money obsession.  While lying about money transactions is still a crime, lying to enhance a commercial product is common practice.  Industry also lies to cover up product defects, sometimes with lethal consequences.  The tobacco industry led the way in post war America.  After decades of health concerns, scientific evidence began to build in the 50's showing tobacco is lethal.  Industry response was to deny everything, criticize the research and the scientists doing the work, and bring court challenges against any attempts to limit their deadly, addictive product.  Although smoking rates have declined over time, 480,000 Americans died this year, and industry revenues were over $100B.

            The fossil fuel industry has taken a similar path, even using the same PR firms the tobacco industry used.  Starting in the 70's serious concerns were raised about the climate impact of fossil fuel emissions.  Industry researchers confirmed the problem, but the corporate response was to close down the research, and fund climate denial, using the same playbook as the tobacco industry.  The stakes are higher, with annual global revenues over $4T, and insured US climate costs of at least $150B per year, with estimates of externalized health cost in the trillions.  As an added bonus, the increasingly erratic climate makes global economic collapse more likely, even risking human extinction.

            In the medical industry, Perdue Pharma made millions producing and aggressively distributing opioids, touting their safety, while actually addicting millions and killing over 500,000.  In the automotive world, Ford decided against paying for a cheap fix for their Pintos with exploding gas tanks, as it would cost more than settling the death cases in court.

            Political corruption is another consequence of the money obsession.  After decades with a growing middle class, the Republicans began destroying it, by legalizing political bribery.  Nixon appointed a tobacco lawyer to the Supreme Court, which began a program where corporations and billionaires take over the country.  In 1976, the Court declared that money is "free speech", injecting a tsunami of cash into politics, making it legal to "buy" politicians.  In 2010, the Citizens United ruling declared there was no evidence of corruption, and opened the door for anonymous "dark money" into politics.  We now know several Supreme Court Justices have profited for decades from "gifts from friends", and that Court is currently poised to prohibit the government from putting any financial limits on business. 

            Studies show that a certain level of financial benefit is necessary for a quality of life, but after that point the beneficial increases decline.  Yet we are still obsessed with getting "more".  Musk, Zuckerberg, and Bezos (among others) show what happens when a few crazed billionaires are running the show. 

            The "evil" done is wide spread and socially destructive, and the profits are increasingly concentrated.  Will greed destroy us before the climate collapses?  Or will humanity mature?  The odds are good that those alive today will get to see the thrilling conclusion.

 

Spiritual, Not Religious

                                                                                   written 26 November 2023

                                                                                 published 3 December 2023

             

            I am spiritual, but not religious.  To me, spirituality is awareness of being part of something larger than myself. All religious organizations have a spiritual root, which is then described, and codified, as rules and cultural strictures.  

            Spirituality is an experience, and religion is a concept.  Experience only happens in the moment, the eternal NOW.  Remembered in the past, or planned for, or worried about, in the future, concept is never in the moment.  In brain physiology, experience favors the right brain and concept favors the left brain.  Ideally, both are in dynamic balance.

            Without the childhood burden of an imposed religious structure, feeling part of something larger has led me to a lifetime of spiritual exploration, inspired first by quantum mechanics, and then Buddhism, eventually appreciating the spiritual truth within every religion.

            When I first encountered quantum mechanics in college, it felt like a recipe for getting from here to there, without much description of the landscape one traveled through.  The fundamental paradoxes are mind boggling.  For starters, depending on how one is looking, matter is either a wave or a particle, each with very different measurable qualities.  Matter can become entangled through interaction, with subsequent changes made non-locally, without regard for space or time. 

            Physicist Richard Feynman is credited with saying, "If you think you understand quantum mechanics, you don't understand quantum mechanics."  Yet the rules of quantum physics have been understood well enough to successfully create the technologies of semiconductors, computers, the Internet, and cell phones, which have transformed the entire planet in just a few decades, giving validity to the underlying theory.

            Matter is energy (E=MC²).  Every speck of matter represents a huge amount of energy because the speed of light (C) is so larger.  For example, the mass energy equivalent of a bottle of beer is 1,000 times more powerful than the nuclear device that destroyed Hiroshima.  But physicist David Bohm stated there is energy present even when "empty" of matter: vacuum, or zero-point energy.  Further, he calculated the quantity of this energy, within each cubic centimeter, is the enormous mass energy equivalence of the entire universe.

            This means that all matter, despite representing significant energy in itself, is really only a very small local increase over the background energy, much like a wave at sea is only a small additional amount of water relative to the ocean depth below.  

            While we can identify individual ocean wave peaks, describing each one uniquely in space and time, we know there is no absolute division between one wave and the next, because we can see they all arise from the same ocean.  Within material reality, we don't see the ground energy common to everything, so we are misled into believing the illusion of absolute material separation, and everything goes downhill from there.   

            However, spiritual leaders throughout the ages, have pointed toward the deeper truth of fundamental unity in life.  Aldous Huxley did a survey of all spiritual traditions, looking for common denominators, and found a version of the Golden Rule everywhere.  "Do unto others as you would have done unto you".  This speaks directly to unity.  Since you and I arise from the same ground energy, "other" is only relative.  

            When individuals "get it", they share with others, and help them "get it" too.  Over time, religious structures grow up, writing down guidance, which becomes sacred texts.  As political and economic power accrues, the entire organization can get distracted from the original inspiration of unity.  A finger pointing toward the moon can be helpful guidance, but when people get too obsessed with the finger, or the person pointing, they soon lose sight of the moon itself, and begin to fight with others who are following a different finger pointing at the same moon.

            This error of separation has dominated human history for thousands of years.  But we are growing up, increasing both our population and material power, and generations of unresolved rage and resentment are destroying not only other people, but the very planet we all inhabit.  Our challenge, if we wish to survive, is to acknowledge our hurt and trauma, and begin to heal within.  We can no longer follow hateful leaders into the collective suicidal illusion of endless rounds of hating each other.

            This won't be simple, and will require fundamental changes in our culture and economy, in order to experience the full potential of being human.

         

 

 

 

Is Sustainability Affordable?

                                                                                   written 19 November 2023

                                                                               published 26 November 2023

      

            Every day, some article complains that the green revolution is "unaffordable", as if the issue is a fashion choice, like getting new carpets for the house this year, or buying a new winter coat.  Without a doubt, decarbonizing the economy, changing the entire energy sector, will be expensive, adventuring into uncharted territory.  But unaffordable compared to what?

            Despite the best efforts of the fossil fuel industry and their bought politicians, the climate issue is gaining more attention every day.  Two thirds of Americans now want renewable energy, even 40 percent of Republicans.  2023 is entering the record book as the hottest year ever experienced by humans. 

            Atmospheric CO2 is now 50 percent higher than pre-industrial levels, a situation last seen 5 million years ago, when the planet was 3°C warmer, and the sea level was 60 feet higher.  We are already 1.1°C warmer.  However, our addition of CO2 has been so rapid that the heating response has been lagging behind, but is now accelerating, with recent projections we will hit 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2030.  

            Weather extremes make the news.  For example, on October 25th, hurricane Otis hit Acapulco, Mexico.  The day before, everyone was preparing for a typical tropical storm, with winds of 70mph.  But the climate warmed ocean rapidly intensified the storm, and Otis hit as a category 5 hurricane, with winds above 165mph, and gusts over 205mph, one of the strongest on record.  Every building in Acapulco was either damaged or destroyed.  The city of 1 million was cut off for days, forcing residents to scramble for water and food.  Estimates are that it will take $15B, and years, to recover.  In addition to destroying infrastructure, the climate crisis is adversely affecting crop yields, raising prices and increasing the risk of widespread starvation, creating lethal heat affecting agricultural workers, and the drought in Panama has cut Canal shipping in half, making supply chain issue more difficult and expensive.

            Our complex technological economic system is dependent of global supply chains across thousands of miles and numerous countries.  This system evolved over time, building on trusted relationships with reliable sources, giving us a standard of living unprecedented in history.  However, our economic model has squeezed out the redundancy of multiple sources, in the name of "market efficiency", which has led to a more precarious situation.  The loss of a single player can have global impact.

            As the climate crisis increasingly destroys, or just deteriorates, parts of the entire globe, like a giant game of Jenga, removing pieces everywhere, we become more unstable, less resilient, both economically and materially.  It is foolish not to notice, and begin to respond to change the situation before we lose the ability to respond at all.  By the time a firestorm is heading toward your house, your opportunities have narrowed to just fleeing for your life.

            For decades, our economy has grown on the back of affordable fossil fuels, which are now depleted, raising prices, while leaving us with a civilization threatened by the climactic consequences of a polluted atmosphere.  Globally, we pay trillions of dollars per year retail for this fuel.  Governments annually subsidize the industry with trillions more, in direct payments and externalized climate damages and health costs.  The global economy generates about $120T annually, and a very modest price to earnings ratio of 10 means the invested infrastructure is worth at least $1,200T.  This entire fiscal net worth is at risk due to increasing climate disasters, without considering any value we put on human life, or the value of living on a habitable planet.

            The climate solution is two-fold: stop adding to the problem with complete decarbonization of the economy, and begin immediate removal of 1,000 gigatons of atmospheric carbon, with a goal of returning to pre-industrial levels by 2050.  We have wasted decades due to the well-funded climate denial industry, so any effective response will have to be more rapid, and therefore expensive.

            Global decarbonization costs are estimated at about $275T over 30 years, about $9T annually, less than 8 percent of global GDP.  That can be considered either as an insurance payment to avoid complete disaster, or a tax on stupidity and selfishness.

             Part of the problem is that people are reluctant to look at the magnitude of what is at risk.  Is a habitable planet desirable?  If so, how can we accept it is unaffordable?  Think about that.  

Molting

                                                                                   written 12 November 2023

                                                                               published 19 November 2023

    

            Some people feel humans are just a lethal parasite, killing our host planet, and the sooner we die off, the better the rest of life will be.  Reading the news, it is easy to understand this perspective.  

            The nuclear exclusion zone around the damaged Chernobyl nuclear plant is thriving with wildlife, despite horrendous mutations and diseases, because there is no human impact, compared to other areas.  Humans are more hazardous that severe nuclear contamination.  From space, cities look like grey, concrete dead zones expanding across the landscape, and industrial sites are mostly devoid of life.  Our extractive economic model, preferentially focused on short term exclusive gains, makes it profitable to kill the planet.

            But humanity is a very young species, still learning and evolving.  Even viruses, which are barely alive, evolve over time.  If a virus is too swift in its lethal predation, killing the host before it can infect another, it dies out.  Over time, it moderates, either killing less swiftly, or making a deal with what becomes a host organism, where it survives without attacking that particular species.  Life learns.

            Every problem we humans manifest comes from the same flawed perspective: the illusion of absolute separation in the reality of a massively connected world.

            Consider just the obvious problems, misogyny, racism, religious bigotry, and nationalistic wars, all running rampant across the planet right this minute.  Each one is rooted in the idea that some part of the population feels "better" than some other part, and chooses to oppress or kill them.  Justifications are often based on the idea that "God is on our side", even though each side in a conflict often believes the same thing.

            Our economy reflects this separation perspective, justifying horrible oppression as "just business", with the added bonus that the entire system is rooted in the fraud that costs can be "externalized", by pretending they don't exist, or are "not my problem".  

            The climate crisis, my particular focus, is another symptom of the same separation, as people ignore that they are part of life.  Just hold your breath and think about where the oxygen comes from, and notice how important that next breath becomes.

            This illusion of separation is deeply rooted, dominating humanity for thousands of years.  But we are learning.  Democracy and human rights are expanding.  In the last few centuries, humans have discovered the stored energy of fossil fuels.  In the last century we discovered the energy inherent in matter, accelerating our social transformation with quantum physics and the computer revolution.  We are experiencing the fundamental material interconnectedness of the world, but living with Paleolithic brains and medieval cultural structures.

            However, those social structures are now constipated, corrupted, and failing in their basic functions.  The old way of "doing business" no longer works.  Some people want to be told what to do, and crave an authoritarian leader, saving themselves the effort of thinking for themselves.  But that won't work, as the fundamental separation perspective wouldn't have changed, still "us against them".  We are being forced to evolve, to experience the inherent cooperation of the world, learning to live like a multi-celled organism.

            We are a global society, and can no longer abide the wealth extremes where a few have massively more than they need, and billions are sick and starving.  Diversity is a co-operative strength, not an invasion to be feared.  Violent, hateful leaders anywhere, are a threat to all of us everywhere.  For example, while not equivalent, the authoritarian leaders in Israel, and the terrorist leaders in Hamas, make the whole world worse off.    

            There are life forms that grow by molting.  Their brittle definition of "what is" becomes too small.  In order to live, they have to crack out of their shell and expand.  Humanity is in the process of molting.  The rigid social/economic patterns that have defined us as limited beings in competition are cracking apart.  For those attached to the past, this feels like a disaster.  The challenge is to begin identifying with what is emerging.  The experience begins within, as we grow larger than our little, fear defined, egoic sense of self.

            Humans are powerful enough, and numerous enough, to destroy the ecology of our planet, but cannot survive unless we deliberately refrain from misusing this power, placing the vitality of a biodiverse planet above all other considerations, as a recognized move of self-interest.  Are we wise enough to survive?

 

 

Republicans

                                                                                     written 5 November 2023

                                                                               published 12 November 2023

     

            Republicans have been pounding the message that "government is the problem" for decades.  We now see REPUBLICAN government is the problem.  Republicans stand for protecting very rich men, and oppressing everyone else.  Democrats don't.

            Republicans on the Supreme Court gutted spending limits in campaigns, and money in politics exploded.  72 percent of voters say there is too much money in politics, and 85 percent say the costs of campaigning scare good people from running for office.  There are now 12,600 lobbyists for the 535 Senators and Representatives, a 24:1 ratio.  84 percent of voters say lobbyists have too much power.

            When Democrats are in power, Republicans cry "fiscal responsibility", but under Trump, the national debt increased by 1/3.

            The GOP has no interest in actually governing.  After the House Republicans booted their own Speaker, putting the entire government on hold for three weeks, they demanded the IRS be defunded, protecting wealthy tax cheaters, holding Israeli support hostage.  In the Senate, a single Republican abortion fanatic is delaying 400 critical defense appointments, risking US national security.

            The GOP is now MAGA, the Cult of Trump, using hate and fear to create division.  The litmus test for MAGA is not a social agenda, but an absolute commitment to the Big Lie: the 2020 election was stolen.  They target anyone who disagrees, encouraging their faithful to action, causing local election officials to resign due to harassment and death threats.  

            There have been 560 US mass shooting (4 or more injured or killed) so far this year, more than 2 a day, the most in the world by far.  US gun homicide rate is 8 times the next country, and we have 44 percent of the planetary gun suicides.  Even though 60-90 percent of voters support assault rifle bans, or stricter access to guns, Republicans kill all efforts to control guns.  They profess that gun violence is due to mental illness, no-fault divorces laws, the sexual revolution, radical feminism, or legalized abortion, and always answer with "thoughts and prayers".

            Since maniacal support for only the very wealthy is not really a popular policy, Republicans find the democratic system a constraining limitation.  Their response has been restricting voter access, purging voter rolls, gerrymandering districts to distort their power, all leading up to the insurrection to keep their loser candidate in office.

            Republicans have aligned with the Christian Nationalists.  Almost half of Evangelical Christians believe that Christ's message to "love your neighbor" and "turn the other cheek" are too weak for these times and should be ignored, completely distorting the term "Christian".  What is left is hateful, punitive, intolerant, and autocratic, waiting for the world ending Rapture, therefore unconcerned about global deterioration.

            Court packing has allowed the Supreme Court to overturn abortion access after fifty years.  85 percent of voters think abortion access should be legal.  Not satisfied with pushing for a complete abortion ban, Republicans now want all birth control banned, as well as no-fault divorce, forcing people to stay in bad marriages.

            Because Social Security taxes only apply to the first $160,000 of income, the wealthy escape paying a fair share.  As the population ages, the Social Security fund is being drained.  Republicans now argue that larger families are needed to deal with this, but are rabid against allowing in young, eager workers at the border.  In addition, child labor laws are being overturned in GOP led states, with kids as young as 11 working dangerous jobs.

            Supported by Trump, Mike Johnson, the new Speaker of the House, perfectly represents the new GOP.  He is a millionaire Southern Baptist Christian conservative, anti-gay, anti-same sex marriage, anti-marijuana, anti-abortion, anti-birth control, anti-no-fault divorce, and believes in covenant marriages, which are much harder to end.  An ultra MAGA supporter, he masterminded the January 6th plot, worked to undermine the election certification, and thinks mail in balloting is legally suspect. 

            Republicans practice "thought control" with book banning, social media disinformation, and preaching that the climate crisis is a liberal hoax, delaying effective response to growing social issues.

            If you are a human with a heart, if you want your children to have a habitable planet, if you prefer kids not be shot in school, if you are a woman who wants to decide how to plan your own family, if you believe that the democratic system is important, this next election is an opportunity to speak up, and decisively vote out these authoritarians.

 

Questionable Assumptions

                                                                                     written 29 October 2023

                                                                               published 5 November 2023

  

            All logic is based on assumptions, and the validity of any logical conclusion is affected by the validity of the foundational assumptions.  

            For example, Trump is mentally unstable, and assumes he is never a "loser", so he concluded the 2020 election must have been stolen from him.  Despite the absurdity of the fundamental assumption, the entire Republican party has followed him down that rabbit hole, even to the point of trying to overthrow the government.  

            Capitalism has an assumption just as suspect: constant growth is possible on a finite planet.  

            In the last 75 years, human population has increased from 2 billion to 8 billion, a factor of 4, and fossil fuel consumption has increased by a factor of 7.  By the mid 60's, virtually all of the planet had been surveyed, and discovery of new oil reserves had peaked.  In 1956, Shell geologist Marion King Hubbert, understanding that fossil fuels are a finite resource, predicted that the US oil production would peak in the early 70's, due to depletion of reserves.  He was ridiculed at the time, but 1972 was indeed a peak for US conventional oil production.

            At that point, the US lost control of the price of oil, and OPEC took over.  Gasoline prices tripled in a decade as the US was punished for its support of Israel, US interest and inflation rates rose, and the savings and loan industry crashed.  Eventually a deal was made with the Saudis, and relative stability returned.

            However, Hubbert had also predicted that global oil production would peak in the early 21st century, but nobody really paid attention.  When Hubbert was alive, oil was generally pumped from land-based reserves.  As oil production expanded, this conventional resource became contrasted with deep ocean oil, fracking of tight oil, and tar sands.

            In 2005, global conventional oil production peaked.  Demand was filled by increased deep water extraction, and an explosion of fracking, which made the US a world leader in production again.  But deep water is very expensive to produce, and fracking exploits very small reserves, which deplete rapidly.  Oil was available, but extraction costs went up significantly.

            At the turn of the century, the financial industry had created a house of cards in the housing industry, and mortgage fraud increased 1400 percent in the seven years leading up to 2005.  Rising oil prices, particularly diesel, which impacted shipping costs, helped pop the housing bubble in 2008, leading to a global economic crash.  The resulting recession reduced oil demand and prices, and the economic crisis distracted attention from issue of limited affordable oil production.  

            By 2016, the global economy was beginning to recover.  However, a decade of fracking had demonstrated it was a financial loser, demanding higher prices to be affordable, which made the resulting fuel relatively unaffordable to the customer.  Billions were lost as the reality of limited oil conflicted with the industry advertising hype.  Fracking reserve estimates were optimistic, and the few areas that were actually profitable were quickly developed and depleted.  In 2018, global oil production from any source peaked.  The COVID pandemic beginning in 2019 depressed the global economy again, reducing oil demand and prices again, distracting from the limited oil economy again. 

            We are now recovering from the COVID pandemic, and the price of oil is volatile, shifting between $80-$100 per barrel.  Our local gasoline prices are over $5 per gallon, and diesel is even higher.  The wars in Ukraine and Israel have added to volatility, as has the increasing shift away from fossil fuels all together.  Russia and Saudi Arabia have the largest remaining conventional reserves, and there is question about their ability to produce.  Russia needs as much money as they can squeeze out of the market to fund their war, and the Saudi's are beginning to withhold product from the global market to insure sufficient domestic supplies.

            Despite Republican rhetoric, Biden had not limited new domestic production, but has encouraged shifting to renewables.  However, big oil is not really interested in investing in new production.  Their stockholders are tired of losing money, and prefer stock buybacks.  Serious questions about when peak oil demand will occur, due to the global shift to renewables, make any long-term production investment risky.  Some oil majors have abandoned the field entirely.

            We are experiencing the end of affordable fossil fuels, without even considering the fact that we are killing the planet with the resulting climate change.

 

 

 

The Change Is Here

                                                                                     written 22 October 2023

                                                                                 published 29 October 2023

   

            Randy Howard, the general manager for Northern California Power Authority, recently gave a presentation to the Ukiah City Council.  Ukiah is a member of the consortium of publicly owned power companies, which buys the power we consume.  We are among the best in the State for our percentage of non-carbon power, but the situation has shifted, as the State has set a goal for complete decarbonization by 2045, in response to the climate crisis.  Renewable power construction will have to increase a factor of five over current levels, for the next 20 years.

             Community Choice Aggregators (CCA) are publicly owned regional power companies, serving 1/3 of the California population.  Sonoma Clean Power, which provides power to most of Mendocino county, is a member.  Last month the CCA Association held their annual retreat, which included conversations with the major players in the California State electrical power system.  One of the significant subjects was the fact that the transmission grid is nearing its maximum capacity, which challenges the State goal of decarbonization.  New grid construction can take over a decade for all the planning and right of way permits, even before the actual construction.  Other structural factors are supply chain limitations due to the rapid increase in system construction, and the slow pace of new connections to the grid.  

            While these are serious issues, change is already happening.  The financial world is beginning to understand that a dead planet is bad for business, electricity is a valuable real product, and more companies, with trillions of dollars, are moving into the renewable power construction world.  More large scale manufacturing of solar, wind, and batteries are coming online each year.  At some point, even constipated organizations like PG&E will either see the need, or be forced, to change their business practices to speed up grid connections.

            The entire nature of the grid will change as well.  The historic model of shipping power only as it is immediately needed, will have to evolve to shipping power when grid capacity is available, to be stored for use as needed.  This more complex operating model will require new power management tools, but will utilize the existing grid infrastructure more efficiently, allowing time for strategic grid upgrades to be built.

             Large scale power storage is already being constructed.  Sacramento Municipal Utility District is building a 2,000MWh battery.  This will help integrate their power system, storing midday solar for evening usage.  This is the largest battery under constructed, but will soon be surpassed as grid scale battery storage matures.

            NCPA is building a green hydrogen electrolyzer plant near Lodi, which will split sewage waste water to create hydrogen, using midday solar energy that is now pushing the limits of grid capacity.  Hydrogen is long-term storage of power, far exceeding the duration of batteries.  It can be stored as compressed gas, cooled liquid, or converted to either ammonia or methanol.  Each storage method has energy costs and benefits.  NCPA will ship compressed gas to the Oakland harbor district for use in their facilities.  

            Hydrogen is already being used in high temperature manufacturing such as steel and cement.  It is also a good candidate for long haul trucking, trains, airplanes, and shipping.  The shipping company Maersk is building four new container ships fueled by methanol.  Of course, only green hydrogen, produced with non-carbon electricity, will be of any use in dealing with the climate crisis.  Most commercial hydrogen is now reformulated from natural gas, and does nothing to help the climate crisis, despite fossil fuel industry green washing.

            Obviously, all this change requires massive investment, perhaps $30T globally, spread over 20 years, but the annual global economy is estimated at $88T.  Consider for a moment what will happen if we do nothing.  June, 2023, atmospheric carbon dioxide level was 424ppm.  No human has ever before lived in this atmospheric condition, and this change happened rapidly.  To think that our technologically dependent economy can survive this is foolish.  To avoid climate driven economic collapse, we must rebuild the entire planetary energy infrastructure, and it has to happen rapidly, because of the decades of delay while the fossil fuel industry racked up trillions in profits.  

            Some people still think the crisis is a hoax.  Every year, the reality changes more minds, or kills them off.  Successfully responding to the climate crisis will be the most important gift we can give the following generations.

 

 

Climate Refugees

                                                                                     written 15 October 2023

                                                                                 published 22 October 2023

  

            In September global temperatures spiked to 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, 0.5°C hotter than the previous monthly record, and 2023 is the hottest year.  Global temperatures began rising in 1900, but sharply increased in 1970, and yet again in 2010.  Left unaddressed, this double exponential acceleration means the climate changes we are already seeing will become more severe.

            During the 2017 Redwood Valley fire, neighbors helped neighbors flee the ember blizzard, some escaping with nothing more than the clothes on their backs, and the larger community rallied with support.

            Before Hurricane Idalia hit Florida last August, 1/3 of the state were told to evacuate and millions heeded the warning.  The migration surge impacted surrounding areas, congesting highways, filling all available lodging, overwhelming and disrupting the regional economy.  For the most part, these climate refugees were welcomed, or at least tolerated, as the need to avoid the disaster was on the news everywhere, and these were all "locals", part of the larger community.

            But imagine if folks fleeing for their lives had encountered armed barriers when they hit the county line.  Imagine that folks in other parts of the country didn't want to have their own lives disrupted.  Imagine if those refugees had not been considered "local", but "other".

            This happened when hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005.  Much of the low-lying city was flooded, forcing unexpected evacuations.  But in some areas, dislocated blacks were turned away by armed whites in neighboring communities, forced to stay on higher parts of the highway system with no food, water, or shelter.

            The refugee problem on our southern border has been an issue for years. There are many reasons people have uprooted their lives, walking thousands of miles, risking hardships and predators along the way, to try to get to the US.  One is the economic devastation already caused by the changing climate, which made their previous homes uninhabitable or economically impossible. 

            More than 2 million people have been apprehended crossing from Mexico in 2023.  Some border states have shipped folks north as a political statement, with over 100,000 reported in New York City alone, overwhelming shelter capacities.  But New York has lost 500,000 residents in the last year.  The real problem is not the influx of people, but the lack of short-term shelter facilities to deal with it.  Our entire country is confronted with an aging population and declining birth rate, yet we disparage the millions of relatively young, hard-working people wanting to come here, because they are designated "other".

            Our refugee issue is a part of a global problem, as millions are on the move, displaced by regional climate collapse, and the wars that explode as a result.  This will only get worse as the climate crisis grows.

            88°F at 100 percent humidity is the maximum a healthy young human can sustain and survive.  As the planet warms, the air holds more moisture, making larger areas too hot and humid for humans and other mammals.  The Middle East, Asia, and Africa are at risk, as well as parts of the US.  Summer in Phoenix has already been declared uninhabitable without air conditioning.  By 2100, at least a billion people will be heat impacted, and another 200 million will be displaced by 6.5 feet of sea level rise.  

            More immediately, the World Health Organization estimates drought will dislocate 700 million by 2030, six years from now.  Drought is already affecting global food production, hindering food transportation, decreasing crop yields and water availability.  When the land can no longer feed people, they move. 

            If we are having problems with a few million people moving, what will happen when a billion people are moving in order to survive?  For most of us, this problem is "over there", but that can change in a moment.

            We can start by not killing each other anymore, valuing every life, if we value any.  Using religious, racial, economic, or national divisions as an excuse for tyranny is ignorant, as the climate crisis shows we are a global family in reality.  Centuries of killing to "avenge" a wrong have failed, breeding only stronger backlash, bringing us to the brink of societal collapse.  We must not only end "hating" and following hateful leaders, but actively begin "loving".  Christ said it and John Lennon reaffirmed it: "love is all we need".  Simple, but difficult, given the centuries of embedded grief.  Are we too stubborn to survive?

 

 

Tale Of Two People

                                                                                       written 8 October 2023

                                                                                 published 15 October 2023

    

            Last week, excessive heat forced cancelation of a marathon in Twin Cities, Minnesota.  Salt water intrusion up the slow drought slowed Mississippi river now threatens the Louisiana citrus industry.  Amazon rainforest and South American monsoons show signs of imminent collapse.  New wildfire on Spain's Tenerife island forced 3,000 to evacuate.  New York City flooded as a month of rain fell in a few hours.  Taiwan recorded a 213mph gust during typhoon Koinu.  Heavy rain caused a glacial lake overflow flood, impacting 22,000 in India.  Annual Antarctic sea ice peak is the lowest on record.

            The experience of being born can be traumatic.  Everything changes in a few moments.  The newborn is assaulted with the programming of their parents and culture, defining "who they are".  The physical experience is so diverse, and attractive, that the soul forgets where they came from, and becomes defined by the exterior world.

            Dr. Gabor Mate, trauma therapist, thinks as many as 90% of us have been traumatized, which locks us into rigid stories we create to help explain our experience.  This rigidity prevents us from experiencing our authentic emotions, removing us from reality.  Although the original traumatizing experience fades, the stories persist, until we consciously deal with them.     

            The news cycle is dominated by Donald Trump.  His personal history is now well documented, including the book by Mary Trump, his niece.  Donald was traumatized by his home life.  His father, emotionally cold, taught life was about killers and losers, that winning was the goal, keeping score with money.  Donald was given massive funds early on, divorcing him from taking responsibility for his actions, accelerating the cultivation of his own identity cult.  His goal has always been to improve his personal brand worth, as defined by external power and wealth, without regard to the impact on anyone else.  However, his empire worth has already been judged overstated, and built on fraud.  Such a traumatic expression is described as a malignant narcissist.

            Trump is a metaphor for the old order of society, which celebrates the "individualist".  Sociopathic and psychopathic individuals, typified by almost complete lack of compassion or empathy, a relatively small part of the population, are disproportionately found in the ranks of business and political leaders.  We exalt the fact that three people own half the wealth of the country.  But this kind of distortion, played out all across the economy and society, is bringing us to the brink of collapse, economically and ecologically.  There are signs of change showing in the cracks.

            Some people believe we are born, live once, and die, residing forever after in heaven, hell, or oblivion, depending: one and done.  Other people believe our being, or soul, transcends time, and lives thousands of life times, learning something from each incarnation, bringing forward some knowledge or unresolved lesson to learn.  People researching past lives find that young children often remember previous life events, before this incarnation eventually overwrites everything.  But perhaps that division between lives is becoming more permeable.  

            Max Alexander was born in Los Angeles in 2016.  At the age of four he told his parents that he had previously been fashion designer Guccio Gucci, and intended to be a dress maker.  He was so passionate that his mother taught him how to use a sewing machine, and sent him to sewing classes when he surpassed her knowledge.  Max has now made hundreds of designs, held his own fashion shows, sold internationally, has a celebrity following, and a studio which helps produce his designs.  His goal is to "make women feel beautiful".  He is currently in third grade.

            Max seems to have accessed aesthetics, designs, and skills way beyond a happy go lucky little boy.  Inspiration is our individual connection to the larger world of previous knowledge.  

            As a creative person, I trust the process of inspiration.  Occasionally, ideas come that I have never experienced before, and this process can be cultivated.  Several times I have easily taken up a new craft, and felt like I have done it before, yet not in this lifetime.  Our culture doesn't encourage considering reincarnation, so we are likely to dismiss these thoughts, rather than consciously working to open that inspirational channel further.

            Consider what the world would be like if we were all able to access multiple life times of knowledge into shaping the world today, and become more like Max and less like Trump.