written 1 March, 2026
published 8 March, 2026
In physics, a shock wave results when forces change the world faster than is can respond smoothly. The January, 2025 Los Angeles fires created a cultural shock wave.
In the new book "Firestorm", Jake Soboroff describes his live news reporting on those fires. The winds were so intense, and the land so dry, a fire hurricane engulfed the city, overwhelming all efforts to stop it until the winds died down. The numbers are grim. Five fires, 40,000 acres burned, 12,300 structures destroyed, 32 dead, more than 200,000 people displaced, with cost estimates over $21B and counting, the most expensive in California history.
Soboroff interviewed Captain Jonathan White, of the Health and Human Services Strategic Preparedness and Response. Based on his years of disaster investigation experience he believes we are in an age of disasters. "This is the result of four powerful forces coming together: the global climate emergency, aging infrastructure disintegration, changes in how we live, and politics of blame and disinformation".
Over decades, human actions have changed the climate, amplifying normal conditions, enhancing the extreme drought and high winds that drove these fires. Infrastructures, such as fire equipment and personnel, water reservoirs and urban water mains, are decades old with massive deferred maintenance and sometimes stressed under normal conditions. This was no match for the magnitude of the fires. As cities expand into new wildlands, fire impact increases. Even as the fires burned, and resources were focused on saving lives, the president elect spewed out his trade mark invectives and lies.
White said "Democrats are wrong that what we are facing is a future threat. Republicans are wrong in saying there is no threat. The threat is here." Unfortunately, shock inducing changes are not limited to climate issues.
The Artificial Intelligence (AI) explosion, already disrupting the economy, is rapidly accelerating. Perhaps half the 70 million mid-level office workers could be fired in the next year or two. These are mostly good paying jobs, so personal bankruptcies will spike. The impact will spread as businesses servicing these people will also be affected. Recent college graduates will face increased unemployment. College loan defaults will grow. Office parks will become vacant, depressing real estate values.
That is the result of AI working, but the entire AI bubble may burst before such extensive damage can be done. Investors are growing concerned there is little to no return on their massive investment, and the rising value of the stock market is dependent on AI investment. The frenetic pace of AI data center development demands an equally rapid spike in electrical power production and water for cooling, however, in the real world, these resources can't grow nearly as fast as expected. The resulting "correction" could crash the economy like the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007.
Another impending shock is called the "Kessler syndrome". In 1978, NASA scientist Donald Kessler said "the more stuff we put in orbit, the higher the risk that some of that collides, creating a cascade of collisions, distributing the debris around the entire planet." Such a runaway cascade could make productive space orbits unusable for generations. This kind of event is portrayed in the 2013 movie "Gravity", starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney.
Material orbiting below 320 miles altitude is slowed by atmospheric drag and soon falls to Earth and burns up on re-entry. Satellites with commercial and military utility must last longer, and orbit between 320-600 miles altitude. About 14,000 satellites are now in orbit at those altitudes, 2/3 of which are the Starlink fleet. This is where a cascade could start even if we stop adding anything else.
As of March, 2025, the debris density at that altitude already exceeds the runaway threshold, with more than 50,000 objects larger than 2.5" and more than 1.2 million larger than .25", all of which can cause damage, given the relative speeds involved.
Starlink reports currently making 800 course correction every day to avoid debris. If satellites lose the capacity to correct, perhaps due to a large solar flare, the first collision would happen within 5 days, up from 5 months 8 years ago.
The climate, AI, and space debris problems have a common root: domination by exclusive gain strategies while ignoring impacts on the whole system. In a unity reality, any solution that doesn't include everything, isn't really a solution, but just part of the problem. Case in point, another Republican president starting another middle east war.
