written 31 May, 2026
published 7 June, 2026
Everyone knows the story about the "boy who cried wolf". Because he was bored, or wanted attention, he falsely claimed a wolf was attacking the flock of sheep he was supposed to watch. The villagers rushed to defend him, only to realize there was no wolf. After this happened several times, the people of the village began to distrust the boy, so when a wolf did appear, the boy got eaten.
Similarly, the president every so often declares an "agreement with Iran has been reached". So far, this keeps Wall Street and the oil markets relatively calm. The stock market drooped when the war first started, but is now higher than ever as some still profit from disaster. Crude oil prices are about 50 percent higher than before the war, but holding relatively steady, taking a slight price dip whenever an "immanent agreement" is announced, before creeping higher again. Gasoline prices get everyone's attention, but there is still gas to be pumped.
But whatever the president announces, Iran soon sets him straight. There is no deal. The Strait is still closed.
As the closure drags on, shortages of fuel and raw materials are being felt around the world, with disproportionate impact. Asian nations from Japan to the Philippines, being hit hardest, have implemented a four-day work week, reduced speed limits, and curtail private driving while pushing for working from home. Thirty nations from Norway to Zambia, are spending billions on fuel subsidies, with many declaring "states of national emergency", reducing air conditioning and subsidizing public transport.
None of this addresses the underlying cause: the stalemate with Iran. Now into the fourth month, there are no indications it will end any time soon. Once the stored oil reserves are depleted, which is now well under way, prices are expected to jump at least another 50 percent, perhaps even double. America we will probably start seeing this by July, which will impact the midterm elections.
The president has created an insoluble disaster. No other countries will help force a change, because he has alienated them. Resumption of war risks further long-lasting destruction of regional oil production. Negotiation is time consuming and requires respect between participants, but he is impatient and inclined to bully people. Voters are losing confidence in White House happy talk, as demonstrated by his declining poll numbers.
But the president doesn't let impending economic and political destruction slow him down. This week we saw self-serving corruption of unprecedented scale. The president sued himself for $10B over leaked tax returns, then came to an arranged settlement with himself, magnanimously dropping the lawsuit in exchanged for a $1.8B tax payer funded slush fund, to be distributed in secret by five men he picks, with no public record of who gets how much. The original judge is now considering this as a fraud. Additionally, he and his family are immune from tax audits for life. What an exemplary statesman!
But this may be a bridge too far even for Congressional Republicans, who are resisting signing on. The Republican led Senate decided to leave town rather than vote. The president's revenge attacks on any Republican insufficiently loyal to him has already created several lame duck Senators, now able to vote their personal ethics rather than submit to the bully-in-chief. The House has similar problems.
Regular readers know I am appalled by our president, seeing him as corrupt, incompetent, and demented. But I have to give him credit where it is due. He has accelerated the global shift away from fossil fuels into renewable energy. Of course, this was never his intention, but that has been the effect of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, for which he is totally responsible.
The entire planet now has a pocket book experience of the perils of depending on fossil fuels, totally independent of the fact that they are killing life on Earth. When the core energy system of your economy can be affected by one insane individual, the incentive to change is dramatic. This is not to say that the renewable shift is complete, or anywhere near sufficient, but the tide has inexorably turned. There is nothing the president can do, short of global thermonuclear war, that will stop what in now in motion.
Even though the U.S. is racing backward as fast as possible, and China is the global energy provider of the future, we may avoid toasting off the planet for profit, thanks to our president.
