Investing In Solar Backup

                                                                                                 written 11 August 2019

                                                                                             published 18 August 2019

                                                

            

            We are currently killing the planet to create a few more billionaires.  If human civilization is to survive, we will have to change directions, and prioritize a livable planet above all else. Among other things, we must restructure our power system.  

            Since commercial electricity began, our civilization has grown to expect unlimited power at all times.  PG&E's proposed power shut downs, as many as 80 days a fire season, are a major disruption.   Almost all businesses will be closed, costing $1.7M per day, $136M annually in the worst-case scenario.  A power shut down will put most people out of work, risk the medically fragile, disrupt communications, and challenge our ability to feed ourselves.  Some people have bought portable generators for their homes, which are cost effective in the short run, but a noisy, polluting, and potentially hazardous step backwards as a community.  

            The 21st century habitable planet power grid will use renewable power, with distributed collection and distributed storage.  The grid will allow communities to import power from out of the area, without requiring every house or business to be totally self-sufficient. But, each house will have a small micro-grid, with the ability to collect and store enough ambient energy to power critical needs in an emergency.  The minimum basics needs are an energy efficient refrigerator, some LED lights, internet and phone communication, and essential medical hardware.  

            A system with 900 watts of collection, 2 kilowatt hours (Kwhrs) of storage, and a 2 kilowatt (Kw) inverter able to keep the batteries charged when the grid is functioning, would power all the above plus a small appliance and a washing machine, and cost about $10K for parts and labor (information and cost estimates come from conversation with a Real Goods solar technician).

            If the City were to install such a system in all 6,500 homes in Ukiah, it would cost $65M, less than the business losses PG&E are creating.  But these 6,500 systems, each with 900 watts of collectors, would produce an average of 30 megawatt hours (Mwhrs) a day of renewable power for the lifetime of the equipment.  Ukiah currently imports about 300 Mwhrs every day, of which 70% is green. That means that 90 Mwhrs a day are produced by brown power.  By state law, Ukiah has to use 100% green energy by 2045.  By installing these small battery backup renewable systems in every house, we accomplish 1/3 of that goal while becoming power resilient.

            This is expensive power compared to what we use right now.  30 Mwhrs a day at the residential rate of $0.13/Kwhr generates $1.45M/yr, which would take decades to pay back the original investment.  But this ignores the added value that everyone would be able to survive unlimited power outages without distress, while avoiding toasting off the planet.  Further, this power investment would generate numerous good paying local jobs.  These significant values are hard to fiscally quantify, but worth considering.

            If we installed larger systems in every home, the number are better.  Online, you can buy a system for $16K, with 4 Kw of collectors, and 19 Kwhrs of storage.  This $104M investment would generate 133 Mwhrs a day, accomplishing the mandated shift to 100% renewable, and pay back the principle in 16 years.

            Another option is small collective systems, where each house has a minimal battery backup, but the power comes from larger neighborhood collective arrays. This would deal with the issue that not every house has good solar exposure. 

            There are several mobile home parks in Ukiah, many occupied by seniors.  Each park has a common building, which could have a micro-grid to supply cooling, recharging capacity, and even cooking facilities for the park residents.

            All businesses should have micro-grids installed to allow most normal functions during a power down, without depending on fossil fuel generators. Currently only 10 businesses are prepared to be open in Ukiah, and none of them are gas stations.  Costco may be able to pump gas, but they only sell to members.

            Intermittent grid power is going to become more common as the climate continues to deteriorate.  Money is not the problem.  If our intention is to create a healthy planet for our kids, the issue is how we choose to invest our wealth.

When The Ignorant Hold Power

                                                                                                 written 4 August 2019

                                                                                           published 11 August 2019

                                                                

            

            Ebola, a hemorrhagic fever virus, was first identified in 1976 in Central African. The current outbreak began in rural Democratic Republic of Congo last year, and is now the largest ever, with more than 2,500 infected, and 1,700 dead.  Though the outbreak grew slowly while in the rural areas, it reached the city of Goma last month, population one million, with international air connections.  

            Ebola is transmitted through contact with contaminated body fluids, but infected people can be symptom free for weeks before becoming contagious.  Ebola can be contained by isolating infected individuals and all their contacts.  Trial vaccines seem effective when given in a timely manner.  Disposal of the dead must insure no further contact with healthy individuals.  Unfortunately, these measures are compromised by ongoing regional wars and widespread criminal activity displacing large populations in an area with limited access and high poverty.  Systems for monitoring and housing sick people are underfunded and understaffed, thus easily overwhelmed.  The outbreak in 2016 ended because of massive international aid.  The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the current outbreak a "public health emergency of international concern".

            Myths about Ebola, based on ignorance and superstition, are spread for local political and cultural advantage.  "Ebola is not real, but fake news made up by the government to keep people from voting".  "Ebola is spread by NGO's and health workers for financial gain".  "Governments made up Ebola to deflect attention from scandals or to depopulate regions". None of these anti-science myths are true, but people believe them, making treatment harder, increasing the likelihood the disease will expand. Ebola doesn't care what you believe.

            It is easy to discount the Ebola outbreak.  It's happening a long way from here, the impact seems fairly small, and the myths and superstitions sound foolish.  But we have the same dynamic happening with the growing climate crisis. 

            It seems far away, decades in the future, if anything happens at all.  Sea level rise and temperature increases are pretty small so far, a matter of a few inches, and a little over 1°C.  Even the myths are the same.  "Climate change is a hoax, fake news".  "It is the product of scientists looking to keep their grant money flowing".  "Climate change is used to destroy working class jobs".  "Renewable energy is un-American and will kill the economy".   This anti-science ignorance dominates the Republican party, delaying efforts to respond, increasing the cost of response, and risking near term human extinction. The climate doesn't care what you believe.  

            As the WHO declared a health emergency, the IPCC and scientists around the world are declaring a climate emergency.  Last week Professor José Javier Hernández Ayala, Director of the Climate Research Center at Sonoma State University wrote an open letter to state and local leaders, excerpted here.

            "If we don’t want to witness the end of organized civilization as we know it, we must act now.  I urge local, state and federal/national policymakers to accept the scientific consensus and the empirical reality that climate change is impacting us now.  I ask policymakers at all levels to issue official climate disaster state of emergency executive orders to make all resources available to deal with the climate change crisis."

            "I urge our governments to develop emergency measures that would allow us to prepare all of the infrastructure and essential sustaining systems in our communities for the impacts of climate change.  If we take bold action now, we can employ every able person in our communities in the 100% renewable energy transformation, infrastructure resiliency efforts and environmental restoration measures that would allow us to be better prepared to cope with climate change impacts."

            "In order for all of this to happen, policymakers need to accept one very important fact, we cannot continue with our current unsustainable economic activities that view the Earth as merely a collection of resources to be exploited in eternity for the sake of never-ending economic growth and wealth accumulation.  If we want to avoid the worst of the very likely climate apocalypse on our horizon, we must act now."

            Just because those in power are ignorant doesn't mean we have to be ignorant.  If our leaders refuse to lead, we must replace them.  We owe this to our grandchildren.

America's Choice: Fascism Or Socialism

                                                                                                  written 28 July 2019

                                                                                           published 4 August 2019

                                                       

            

            Einstein said, "Either everything is sacred, or nothing is": a unity perspective. America's democracy is an effort to create a society founded on the understanding that ALL people have value, with rights of life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness, not just the wealthy few.  This is the core of socialism, a value system that puts people before profits: prioritizing collective benefit over exclusive gain. Firefighters, first responders, public roads, water and sewer systems, libraries and schools, Medicare and Social Security are familiar socialist structures that help make America a functioning democracy.

            Fascism is the governmental alternative to democracy: using government power for the exclusive gain of corporations and the very wealthy, valuing profits over people.  Capitalists have always admired fascism.  Many American corporations had dealings with Hitler's Germany right up to Pearl Harbor, and some, through subterfuge, continued throughout the war.  

            Trump has been blatant about his preference for big business, unfettered by facts, law, ethic, honor, or social consideration, and uses the presidency for personal brand enrichment.  He refuses to release his tax returns, which would show economic conflicts of interest and the potential for extortion by overseas investors.  Instead of divesting from his businesses, he turned control of his 500 corporations over to his kids, two of whom are unconfirmed presidential advisors, not vetted for security clearances.  His original cabinet, and all their replacements, have been business leaders or lobbyists, running agencies that regulate their own industries. They were selected BECAUSE of their conflict of interest.  Several advisors have already been convicted of unregistered lobbying for foreign governments for personal gain.

            President Trump's recent attacks on four Congresswomen are divisive, racist and misogynistic, designed to agitate his voter base, nostalgic for an era when white Christian men ruled America.  But Trump's supporters are being conned by a pro.  The billionaire class is the power behind Trump, and his policies are designed for their benefit at the expense of regular people. Republicans use voter restrictions and gerrymandering to prevent fair elections, and welcomed foreign election interference, assaulting the foundation of our democracy.  By branding Democrats as "socialists", a term demonized by capitalists, they hope to scare people, distracting them from the destruction of our democracy by rising fascism. 

            Trump has delivered three major campaign promises for his wealthy supporters. The first was a massive tax cut for the elite, impoverishing social programs, and generating a deficit of one trillion dollars this year alone.  The second is stacking the court system, especially the Supreme Court, with radical conservative judges that will shape the country for decades.  This looks like a win for the religious right trying to kill abortion, but these judges also prioritize the value of corporations over people: a core fascist principle.  The third is destruction of regulatory structures to increase corporate profits while impoverishing everyone else.

            Regulations passed after spectacular greed in the financial sector crashed the economic in 2007, making millions homeless, have all been repealed by Trump. Regulations established after corporate cost cutting created the 2010 environmental disaster of the Deepwater Horizon oil well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico have been repealed by Trump.  

            The EPA was created to protect the environment from corporate excess.  Trump has gutted the agency, installing corporate lobbyists and former executives.  To increase corporate profit, the EPA allows more poisoning of water by waste from coal and mining.  It recently approved chlorpyrifos, a brain damaging pesticide, for spraying on fruits and vegetables.  Despite increasing economic costs of climate change impact and a growing international awareness of a climate emergency, the EPA denies the reality of climate change and has reduced funding further scientific investigation. 

             To help an economically failing nuclear industry, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission now allows corporations to conduct a reduced number of reactor self-inspections, even though this aging fleet is past it's design life and more prone to catastrophic accidents.

            Poisoning the planet for the short-term profit of a few is a long standing economic pattern, but from a unity perspective, it is suicidal insanity, and contrary to our democratic heritage.  We still have a choice.  We still have options.  Think about the fate of our grandchildren.  Where do you stand?  Corporate profits or a healthy planet?  Fascism or Socialism? 

Parasites And Symbionts

                                                                                                  written 14 July 2019

                                                                                              published 28 July 2019

                                                                                                

            In the first Matrix movie, one of the agents refers to humans as a disease: a parasite infecting the planet.  High altitude pictures of cities show an extensive grey zone of concrete that looks dead.  Dead zones occur in all the oceans where excessive agriculture nutrients promote alga blooms which die, decay, and remove all the oxygen.  Plastic trash gyres occur all over the planet, killing life with indigestible material.  We are in the middle of the sixth extinction, this one man made.  The planet is heating faster every decade, threatening extinction of all life.  It is easy to see that the Matrix agent might be right.

            A parasite is a life form that lives in or on another organism, competitively taking energy and nutrients at the expense of the host.  Because the energy flows only one way, aggressive parasitic growth can eventually cause the host to die.  Such parasites survive only if they can procreate to another host in time. Sometimes the parasite learns to moderate its growth so that the host is not too weakened, allowing both to survive longer.  Some parasites move through several different host species during their life cycle, including hosts that are completely unaffected, and only move the parasite to a new location. 

            Another life strategy is symbiosis, a cooperative model where the energy and nutrient exchange flows both ways, or the symbiont provides essential services to the host organism in exchange for support.  All life developed first as individuals, but over time, found that cooperation increased everyone's survival rate.  Some symbiotic forms are between autonomous individuals, such as cattle and tick birds, dogs and humans, and gut bacteria and humans.

            But others symbiotic forms actually merge, losing autonomy, such as eukaryotic cells, where the genetic material for all the parts of previously autonomous non-nucleated cells has been collected into the nucleus.  All higher organisms have nucleated cells.  In the human body, almost all cells have hundreds or even thousands of autonomous cells called mitochondria, within the cell membrane.  Mitochondria produce the energy molecule used by the rest of the cell, and in exchange, the cell protects and feeds the mitochondria, which can no longer survive on its own.

            Humans are a relatively young species, and the evolution of self-consciousness is even more recent, but there can be little doubt that we have an impact on our host, the planet Earth.  From very modest beginnings, humans have spread across the globe, changing the environment to suit our needs.  Tool making, fire, and hunting accelerated the extinction of many animal species, and the rise of agriculture preferentially supported a very few crops at the expense of many others.  Irrigation allowed larger civilizations, but salt poisoned the land over time.  As increased farming felled the forests, which sequester carbon, the atmospheric CO2 content rose even before fossil fuels. The Black Plague killed so many peasant farmers, the regrowth of the forests caused a measurable dip in the CO2 record.

            A few centuries ago, the philosophy of materialism and the industrial revolution amplified our impact on the world.  The world was no longer sacred.  Humans weren't stewards.  Powered by fossil fuels, everything was just raw material waiting to be exploited. Human population exploded, tripling in just my lifetime.

            This is an unsustainable situation, leading to human extinction, if not in our lifetime, certainly in our children's.  We play the role of an aggressive parasite, but without the long-term game plan of a successful parasite, which must transfer to another host before the first one dies.  A quick survey of the solar system shows there is "no place like home". While several "earth like" planets have been identified within a few lightyears, we have no way to get there.

            Short of painful extinction, our only hope is to learn how to shift from an aggressive parasite to intentionally cooperative symbiont.  We have to get over our human narcissism and exclusive gain, listen to what the planet needs, and begin to live in harmony with our host, rather than trying to dominate it.  Nothing less will do.  All the indigenous cultures have survived for thousands of years, so it is within human capacity.  The only missing ingredient is a global will to survive.

Another PG&E Update

                                                                                                  written 14 July 2019

                                                                                              published 21 July 2019

                                                                                                   posted 26 July 2019

                                                                                                

            Last week PG&E presented the Board of Supervisors with a description of their proposed power shut downs, and how they are preparing.  It was the same slide presentation given to the Ukiah City Council last month.  In the interval, people have begun to absorb the implications of these shut downs, and outrage and fear were on display this time. The California Public Utility Commission decided the shut downs would be at the discretion of PG&E, without input from the cities and counties affected.  This allows PG&E to avoid fire liability, but shifts costs to customers, cities, and counties.  

            A century of power grid development has created a society dependent on constant access to electricity.  We are now required to change that structure in a matter of months, with little planning and no funding from PG&E.  With little infrastructure in place to keep electrical services operating at home and on the job, cities and the county still have obligations to protect their citizens.  First responders, mental and physical health care, basic social services, police and sheriff: all will be expected to operate as usual in a situation that will be anything but usual.  The potential for collateral damage is huge.  Even if everything works out, the added costs have not been budgeted, in a county that is already running with little fiscal margin.

            For the past few weeks I have asked every person and business I encounter how they are preparing for the coming shut downs.  Many people haven't even heard about the issue. Some in the city of Ukiah think that because we are a municipal power system we won't be affected.  Folks on the coast think this is an inland fire issue. Others have begun to prepare, laying in food, maybe buying a generator.  

            My dentist bought a generator to keep his refrigerated supplies, but doesn't plan to be open for business.  Restaurants may still have gas to cook, but no power for vent hoods. At the county presentation, it was mentioned that there are no gas stations with backup generators north of Coyote Valley.  How many folks will still have gainful employment during a power down?  How many can afford a week off without pay?  What will this do to the tourist economy and the tax income of the cities and county? 

            Costco stocked generators, which quickly sold out. Who is wiring up these units?  How is the gasoline, propane, or diesel being stored?  We could have a power down due to weather conditions out of our area, and yet find ourselves fighting fires caused by the response to the emergency.  This summer we will probably experience a series of these shut downs, and everyone will learn more about what is required and what has been overlooked.  Next year we will be better prepared, but we still have to live through this one.

            This crisis is the intersection of a destabilized climate colliding with our declining economic empire.  The UN recently noted that there is a major weather event some place on the planet every week now.  As I write, New Orleans is being evacuated ahead of a tropical storm which will inundate the already soggy Mississippi valley.  In our area, fire is the dominant issue.  We are in uncharted climate territory now, and our social infrastructures are old, needing massive reinvestment, but underfunded to make the stock market fantasy appear alive and well.  For the benefit of a few, the rest of us have to scramble to keep a quality of life to which we have become accustomed.

            While it is easy to focus on PG&E, a typically arrogant corporation, valuing only shareholders and executive bonuses, we must recognize our part in this unfolding disaster.  Climate change warnings began over 40 years ago, becoming more acute every year, but are generally ignored.  Real change requires a deep examination of the structure of our society and our individual notion of who we are as a person.  The pattern is thousands of years old, deeply imbedded, mostly operating unconsciously.  We believe we can separate our fate from that of other humans and other life forms.  In a unity reality, this is a fundamental error, and we are now experiencing the consequences of this delusion.

Just Time For A Quick Update

                                                                                                  written 7 July 2019

                                                                                            published 14 July 2019

                                                                                                

            "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."  On the 243rd anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, it's time for a quick update to see how we are doing.

            The Republican Supreme Court supports partisan gerrymandering, corporate personhood, and big money in politics, while refusing to uphold voter rights, thus gutting the core of our democratic system to maintain their party in power.

            America, the largest global weapons exporter, spends more on war than the next four nations combined, leaving less money for social issues. We are a global bully, creating ill will with few results.  North Korean negotiations have stalled.  Trump unilaterally welched on the international nuclear deal with Iran and applied ruinous sanctions.  The results are increased Iranian uranium enrichment, the risk of regional, even nuclear, war, and oil price chaos.  So, he held a military parade.

            America takes five times our share of global resources, but Trump, desiring more, started a tariff war with China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.  This middle-class tax hike risks global recession.  The stock market has stalled for 18 months.  The corporate tax giveaway did not stimulate the economy or pay for itself.  Three men control half the wealth in America, and homelessness is endemic.  Unemployment is low, but wages are stagnant, and artificial intelligence is going to eliminate even more jobs.  Housing prices are declining, long term bond rates have inverted, and the Fed is preparing for the next crash.  

            American health care is more expensive, and covers fewer people, than other developed countries.  Opioids kill thousands while making big Pharma billionaires.  Chemical and radioactive contamination of our air, food, and water has caused cancer rates to double, and childhood cancers, once rare, are now a leading cause of death.  Monsanto has lost three multi-million dollar lawsuits claiming Roundup causes cancer, and thousands more are pending.  Glyphosate, the active ingredient, is wide spread, found in most people's blood, and even in rain water.  Plastic trash has been found everywhere from the bottom of the Mariana Trench to the peak of Mount Everest.  Plastic gyres exist in all the oceans, and microscopic plastic particles are found in our blood, where they act as hormone disruptors and sites for bacterial growth.

            Atmospheric CO2 content passed 415 ppm, last seen 3 million years ago when the sea level was 100 feet higher.  July temperatures in Anchorage hit 90° and the mid-west is still flooded.  The heavy runoff washed nutrients into the Gulf of Mexico, creating a larger than normal dead zone.  Insect populations have declined 40% and starving sea birds and grey whales are dying, washing onto west coast beaches.  The California fire season has started, and PG&E plans to cut power for five days at a time, creating a third world power system in the world's fifth largest economy.

            This spring, the Arctic ice field is melting early, allowing shipping through the Northwest Passage.  Climate change currently cost the American economy $350B per year, and Wall Street is beginning to pay attention.  Scientists tell us we have a decade to cut our emissions by 50% if we want to avoid near term human extinction.  But Trump and his anti-science Republican supporters, insisting climate change is a hoax, are working full time to destroy environmental regulations and renewable subsidies, while funding economic and environmental losers like the coal and nuclear industry. The Democratic National Committee isn't much better, as climate change received only 15 minutes of discussion in four hours of debate.  

            Our country was founded on noble ideals, if incompletely achieved, rooted in a vision of unity.  Like other attempts to evolve our species, these ideals have been hijacked for the short-term profit of a very few, now risking the fate of our species. I am proud of America's goals, but sad to see how far we have to go.  Even in the face of the threat of extinction, it is important to declare again what we stand for, and work to become our best.  That is the true American way.

The Energetic Nature Of Matter

                                                                                                  written 1 July 2019

                                                                                              published 7 July 2019

                                                                                                

            Our experience of separation seems validated by the material world, which appears as parts.

            Atom, coming from a Greek word meaning "uncuttable", defines the smallest indivisible part of an element. Classical Newtonian physics views atoms as discrete and specific, like very tiny billiard balls.  One gram of hydrogen contains 600 billion trillion atoms. But deeper investigation of atoms shows they are made of parts that are even smaller, and rather than being solid, atoms are relatively empty.

            A hydrogen atom, the simplest of atoms, has a single proton in the middle and one electron defining a sphere surrounding it.  If the proton was as large as a bowling ball, the electron would be smaller than the period at the end of this sentence, located almost 3 miles away from the bowling ball, enclosing an empty spherical volume of 99 cubic miles.  

            Looking more closely, material reality becomes even stranger.  The proton and the electron of the hydrogen atom contain all the mass of the atom, but we now know that mass is condensed energy, from Einstein's famous equation, E=MC².  As I mentioned in a previous article, the mass equivalence energy of a full bottle of Boont Amber beer is 13 megatons of TNT, 1000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.  So, every speck of mass represents a large amount of energy.  But the very structure of space/time, even when empty of mass, contains an even greater amount of energy, called zero-point energy.

            I first came across the concept reading Physicist David Bohm in the 80's.  He presented that a cubic centimeter of space/time contained as much energy as the mass equivalence energy of the entire Universe, an extremely large number. This suggested that, despite representing a huge energy equivalence at the human scale, the presence of mass is really a very small fluctuation in the total energy field. 

            At the time, I was working at the University of California, San Diego, and called the physics department for further information. The researcher tasked with answering calls from the general public was very polite, and confirmed my understanding of the fundamental concept.  Many years later, I was on a cruise up the inland passage to Alaska, and two of our dining table companions happened to be theoretical physicists.  I sat with them one afternoon and got further clarification, and information that zero-point energy had been verified in experiments.

            In the quantum view of reality, matter is not a specific "thing", but a distribution of probability which has no sharp edges. At the edge of detection, matter seems to appear as a froth, "manifesting" out of nothing and disappearing again very quickly.  This frothing was used to detect black holes, demonstrating their physical reality, which had previously been a theoretical consideration.

            The material world is now understood as an exceedingly fine ripple structure on the surface of a vast energy ocean.  What we experience is the shape of this energy surface, where each apparent speck of matter is a small relative increase of energy perceived against the entirety of the ocean.  But in our macroscopic experience of the world, matter seems to endure in time, and can be arranged to serve some form of purpose.  How might this work?

            The Newtonian world view assumes that matter is the ground of reality, and consciousness is a result of material complexity, specifically in the brain.  There is growing evidence in quantum research that this is backwards: that consciousness is the ground of reality and the material world is an object within consciousness, like a dream we perceive.  Matter may be a four dimensional, space/time surface, existing within a higher dimensional volume that is conscious.  To bring it down to something we can actually imagine, if matter is like the surface of an ocean, the shape of matter might be created by patterns in consciousness, similar to wind blowing over the ocean surface, creating surface shape, but not part of the surface.  Matter may be a consequence of conscious intention, which answers the question of how it can seem to endure, and serve a purpose.  All of a sudden, the New Age aphorism that "we create our own reality" might not be limited to just perception.