written 30 August, 2026
published 6 September, 2026
On August 18, 2026, the New York Times Magazine published an article by Christopher Cox titled "What If America Went Completely Dark?" It opened by describing the April, 2013 attack on the PG&E Metcalf substation near San Jose. In 20 minutes, over 100 shots damaged the cooling systems of 17 large transformers, taking them all off line. The shooters escaped before police arrived and were never arrested. PG&E maintained power in the region using their system redundancy, but it took 4 weeks to repair.
Since then, dozens of similar domestic attacks have occurred. The most damaging attack came in December, 2022, when 2 substations in North Carolina were struck, creating a regional blackout lasting five days. Other attacks have been foiled, all involving right wing extremists and neo-Nazi groups.
The electrical gird is the largest machine built by humans. The very high voltages of the transmission system are transformed down to the lower voltage of the community distribution systems at more than 55,000 substations, each with multiple large transformers. These transformers are unique for each location, constructed by hand, costing as much as $14M, taking years to build. They are designed to last 40 years, and many are already older than that. Domestic transformer production supplies only one fifth of our demand. The rest come from Mexico, South Korea, and China.
While the grid is extensive, it is a massively interconnected network. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission did a power analysis on the national system and found that knocking out just 10 key substations (about 180 transformers) would black out the entire country. The damage would take years to be repaired, if ever.
The New York Times Magazine article focused on the grid vulnerability to human terrorist activity, accidents, and aging infrastructure. But those aren't the only sources of concern.
Solar flares of electromagnetic energy occur regularly: multiple small one daily, multiple medium ones weekly, and a large one every month, all with little effect. But very large ones, such as the September, 1859 Carrington event, occurring every few centuries, can be destructive.
The telegraph system had been installed, creating loops of wires hundreds of miles long. When electromagnetic energy passes through wire loops, it generates current (the physics behind electrical motors and generators). The induced current shot sparks for the telegraph keys, and the system functioned without any batteries. Because the telegraph system was fairly simple and small, damage was limited.
Today's electrical grid is vastly more complex, with much longer loops of wire, so the induced currents would be larger. Depending on the size of the flare, and which side of the Earth was facing the sun at the time of arrival, it could damage not just a few substations, but possibly half the planet.
Electrical energy is essential for the functioning of all other parts our modern economy. An Energy Department report about a large grid blackout concluded: “The supply of food, water and fuel would degrade within days. The facile communication of information to the general population would be greatly complicated by the loss of cellphones, internet access and television. The economy would virtually shut down as electronic transactions could no longer be processed. After several days, widespread social unrest and confusion would ensue.” Definitely an understatement!
The failure of multiple transformers is a "black swan" event: relatively low frequency, but very high impact. This grid vulnerability is a consequence of the historical centralized design where a few large power centers produce electricity which is then shipped over long distances. A more resilient alternative would add widely distributed modest power production and storage.
Individual homes and businesses can already be designed to use the grid normally, yet stand alone when the grid fails. This is harder for entire communities, because of the regulatory stranglehold of existing utilities like PG&E.
Ukiah has the rare advantage of owning our electrical system, controlling what happens "behind the meter", giving us latitude not available anywhere else in Mendocino County. The goal is not to replace the grid, but to augment the system. Locally collected power stabilizes costs with free energy and fixed cost hardware. These systems will help supply our usual power load under normal conditions, but will continue to operate during emergencies. Despite providing less than our full load, having some power is much better than none at all.
Ukiah can become a leader in this field, creating an example of interest everywhere. The sooner we start, the better.
