The Nuclear Boondoggle

                                                                                   written 11 October, 2026

                                                                               published 18 October, 2026

  

            According to the World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2026, there are currently 411 nuclear reactors in operation around the globe, with 93 in the U.S.  The nuclear share of electrical power produced globally peaked in 1996 at 18 percent, falling to 9 percent last year.  There is no indication this decline will end any time soon.

            All these reactors are considered standard large reactors, built one at a time, at great expense, with long construction time frames.  While newer reactors trend toward 1,100 megawatts (MW) of capacity, the fleet average is 900MW, which operate at 83 percent capacity each year, due to maintenance, repairs, and refueling.

            The average operational life of a large reactor is 44 years.  The intense radiation, over years of operation, makes metals increasingly brittle, more prone to structural failure, and turns the entire reactor structure radioactive, not just the fuel.  The global fleet average age is 33 years, with one third (137 reactors) already over 40 years old.  Since the U.S. was the first into nuclear reactor construction, our fleet now averages over 45 years old, meaning about 46 reactors are ready to be replaced.  However, no new domestic reactors are under construction, and only 10 are proposed to begin construction before 2030.  Even if these actually happen, it won't be enough to cover replacement of retiring older units, let alone increase the nuclear share of power produced.

            Historically, construction times for a standard 1,100MW unit averages more than a decade, and costs average $18B on up, but the industry has a record of running over schedule and over budget.  To date, no large domestic reactor has ever been completely decommissioned, demolished, and the site returned to what is called "green field" status, suitable for any kind of new usage.  In addition, the 92,000 tons (and growing) of domestic highly radioactive "spent fuel" has never been stored in a biologically safe, geological repository.  Therefore, the true costs of nuclear power have yet to be accounted.  

            The current AI frenzy demands an immediate, and massive, increase in electrical power production, which construction of conventional nuclear cannot deliver.  In response, the nuclear industry's new hope is small modular reactors (SMR), defined as "modular factory-line construction, with capacity less than 300MW".  The promise is these will be much cheaper to mass produce in a factory setting, and be quicker to install.  

            However, for such a system to be profitable, it will require production of a single design, in qualities of at least a thousand.  Unfortunately, no true SMR, as defined above, is operating today, and none are under construction.  Single prototypes of two different designs are operating, and five more, of three different designs, are under construction.  True SMR production will take a decade or two, if at all.

            In contrast to hypothetical nuclear promises, the planet added 2,000MW of new renewable capacity every day in 2025, out pacing the growth in nuclear power by a factor of 450:1.  Even the U.S., despite our president's war on renewables, added 140MW of new renewable capacity each day.  

            Global solar and wind combined generated more electricity than nuclear for the first time in 2021.  By 2025, global solar and wind generated twice as much power as nuclear.  Solar power alone out-generated nuclear and wind power will out-generate nuclear in the next year or two.  Today, the cheapest and quickest grid scale power to install is solar with storage, and the costs continue to drop, because as mass production scales up, costs decline.

            But America is rapidly falling behind, retarded by presidential decree.  Perhaps it is just his whim, or perhaps the billionaires invested in fossil fuels and nuclear have bought presidential attention for the moment.  With hundreds of billion invested, nuclear is some of the most expensive power on the grid, but massively profitable for the owners, and the consumers pay the bills. 

            This administration has been described as a "coin operated system", where wealthy doners getting favors from the government that generate healthy gains for the few.  While such corruption is not unique to this president, he has demonstrated an unusual, and blatant, flair.  Unfortunately, as long as his administration prevails in Washington, we all pay the price.

            This election may change things, but I think the frenzy underlying the AI bubble, which is helping to drive the nuclear resurgence, will soon burst, bringing an electrical power realignment, as well as an economic and political one. 

            In the meantime, please vote!

Money In Politics

                                                                                     written 4 October, 2026

                                                                               published 11 October, 2026

 

            Money distorts American politics.  

            At the personal level, living costs are affected by political actions, which then affects who gets re-elected.  Prices today are dominated by the war on Iran, which was supposed to last just a few weeks, but is entering the 8th month with no end in sight.  As a direct result, the strait of Hormuz, a vital global trade route for fossil fuels and other essential goods, is now blockaded, with only 16 percent of prewar levels passing daily.

            Domestic wholesale oil prices have increased 45 percent from prewar levels, and domestic diesel is up 72 percent.  Retail prices have followed.  As I write this, Chevron in Ukiah sells regular for $6.45/gal. and diesel for $8.49/gal.  These sudden cost increases have adversely impacted everyone.  

            In addition, the president's erratic tariffs have also increased costs on most goods and eroded trust between the U.S. and our trading partners.  Interest rates have increased, raising borrowing costs.  As a result, recent polls say just 17 percent of the voters support how the president is handling the economy.  

            Money can also be generated by corruption of a political office.  The presidential salary is $400,000 per year.  But this president, in his second term, using his social media and crypto currency ventures, leveraged the power of his office to increase his personal wealth by $4.1 billion, the equivalent of $1.2 million dollars an hour, assuming a 40-hour work week.  

            Rather than spend any of his own money, or even some of his $400 million political war chest, MAGA Inc., the president spent $20 million of tax payer money on purported "public service announcements", which only supported himself. 

            The most common example of money in politics are funds raised for campaign costs.  Over a century ago, concern about undue influence by monied interests was written into law in the form of strict disclosure requirements and limitations on contributions.  Over time, monied interests slowly chipped away at these limitations, increasing the cost of every election cycle.  As the drive to raise money for campaigns became more intense and all consuming, legislators spent less time doing their elected job, and more time fundraising.  

            By 2010, the Republican majority on the Supreme Court decided 5-4 that money is a form of speech, so limiting campaign contributions is a violation of Free Speech, opening the doors to unlimited campaign spending.  But money is actually just an amplifier, allowing some people to shout down everyone else.

            The presidential campaign in 2008 cost $2.4 billion, which quickly rose to $16 billion by 2024, more than 4 times the rate of inflation.  One sixth of all funds came as "dark money", now legal, with the donors undisclosed.  In the last election, a few hundred billionaires contribute almost 20 percent of all the campaign funds, about 100,000 times the average contribution from the other 4 million donors.  

            This economic distortion corrodes the reality of our democracy.  The rational is that those with money are somehow better at governing.  But the core of business is exclusive gain, while the ideal of democratic governing is inclusive, improving the lives of everyone in our society.  A small example of this in currently playing out in the Ukiah City Council election, where a business group is supporting a trio of challengers.  But successful business skills are no indicator of good governing skills.   

            Other countries have addressed this corrosive impact of money.  For example, the UK has strict limits on individual donations.   Every candidate has defined public funds, radio, and TV time allotted.  This allows for discussion on policies and ideas, rather than a contest of who can flood the voters the most.  

            With the U.S. so dominated by money, it risks a social collapse as the government drifts away from the actual needs of the populace.  While the candidate that spends the most often wins, voter enthusiasm can't be discounted.  As campaign expenses increase, the mailing and ad inundation hits overload, becoming less effective.  When the message presented is in conflict with the voter's direct experience, it becomes less effective.  This is where having actual grass roots support makes a difference.

            The political consequences of our current situation may become apparent in the next election.  Our current political distortion can't last, because economic exclusive gain is in conflict with the fundamental inclusivity of reality.  The hope is the destruction won't be too extreme, and that we can get our government back in shape.  Please vote!

 

AI As Metaphor

                                                                               written 27 September, 2026

                                                                                 published 4 October, 2026

            The power of Artificial Intelligence (AI) stems from the scale of the computers involved, their calculation rate, and their speed of connectivity.  The scale is already about the same as the neural complexity of the human brain, and growing.  The calculation rate is a million trillion times faster than human thought, and they connect 1,000 times faster than human neurons.  Despite these apparent advantages, they are inherently limited.

            The human brain has two hemispheres which process information quite differently.  The left hemisphere, the seat of the ego, processes by linear sequence, discerning differences, and is associated with logic, analytical thinking, concepts, and language processing.  The right hemisphere, the channel for inspiration, synthesizes relationships simultaneously, and is linked with creativity, intuition, and holistic thinking.   Both hemispheres, working together, create our experience of the world.

            AI is only logical intelligence, contrasted to emotional and spiritual intelligence.  Logic has definable rules, essential for a computer.  But logic is based on assumptions, which are axiomatically accepted as valid, and can never be examined by the logic based on those assumptions.  

            AI is trained on all of existing human knowledge, primarily inputted as words, which are symbolic concepts.  Even the visual inputs are described by more words.  This means the entire foundation of AI knowledge is only conceptual, without the human balance of experiential knowledge.  For example, no matter how many conceptual word descriptions one reads about the pain of touching a hot stove, the actual experience is fundamentally different, giving greater understanding to the concept.

            Furthermore, most of what has been written throughout history has been written by men.  By excluding the perspective of half of humanity, written human knowledge is biased.  Given AI's limited base of input knowledge, it is no surprise it acts like a malignant narcissistic ego, inclined toward self-preservation and domination, by lying and cheating.

            This bias is accentuated by the economic framework that builds AI.  AI capacity is increasing exponentially. The next goal, coming soon, is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) which will be able to replicate and improve itself without human interaction.  Boosters suggest AGI will be more powerful than all of existing human technology combined, revolutionizing everything.  Detractors fear AGI will cause human extinction, perhaps within a few years.  Those in the middle insist AGI can help humanity if it can be safely aligned with human goals.

            Unfortunately, building in safety (if even possible) takes time, but in the competition to be first, making trillions in profit, and controlling the planet, it is highly unlikely that safety will prevail.  This is a race off the edge of a cliff, bringing all of humanity along for the ride.

            While American proprietary AI systems currently lead the planet, none have yet produced a profitable product, despite hundreds of billions invested.  Chinese systems are almost as capable, but use 90 percent less energy and are open source.  This threat to U.S. dominance, combined with the economic instability of our war and tariffs, has generated warnings of an AI bubble. 

            Life can be viewed as a metaphor, having deeper significance, the same way a dream can be understood to mean more than the remembered specifics.  Humanity has arrived at a tipping point.  Patterns that have festered for generations are coming to a head, demanding recognition denied for millennia.   

            Society has been dominated by ego and division as long as history has been written down.  The has resulted in embedded patriarchy, misogyny, racism, economic inequity, religious bigotry, and war.  Unrestrained, late stage, capitalism, based on the egoic belief that "greed is good", is consuming the planet while impoverishing the multitudes and creating a sixth extinction of life on Earth.  

            AI has become a public issue in the last few months, cutting across economic and political lines.  But it is just an emerging symptom of these same systemic problems, with more immediate consequences, resulting from a fundamental perceptual error: the illusion of separation.  This is expressed by economic greed, the desire to dominate everyone else, driving forward without regard for any consequences, denying even the warnings from those working at the heart of the project.  

            We know better than this.  But the AI company leaders are too distracted with winning, and the president sees this is as another left-wing hoax, like affordability and the climate crisis.

            Intelligence is the ability to solve problems.  Wisdom is the ability to know what problems to solve.  AI may appear intelligent, but it is not wise.  Let's vote for wisdom.